American football is a unique sport in both the brevity of its season and the preponderance of injuries due to its extremely violent nature. Both of these feature make prognostication very difficult, because 16 games are erratic enough even if you know very well that the best players will compete.
Instead of trying to project win totals for individual teams, I have used numberFire’s projections to set the number of division and wild card wins each team will likely need to qualify the playoffs. These targets are adjustable via the parameters on the right (if you don’t see the parameters, maximize your browser window).
Some are having problems interacting with the below graph. If this is the case for you, please click here to view the visualization on its own, where you can use the filters and see the hover-over text.
Given all the randomness created by injuries and a short season, I find it most helpful to simply track what NFL teams need to accomplish over their remaining games rather than trying to quantify odds for a few games whose key players may not even be fit to perform.
If you like this visualization, please bookmark, as I will aim to update it regularly.