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  • January 10, 2014

    Stat Attack – The Top 76 Scorers in Europe 2009-10

    By Ted Knutson
  • I finally finished the data work I wanted to do for transfer shopping pieces, and then I got so excited about the top scorer in Europe 09-13 stuff that I had had to post that first. However, the point of all this was an attempt to build some useful baselines. What type of performance qualifies as elite? Obviously merging words and numbers is tricky, but we’re basically looking at the best of the best in terms of football performance.

    The data set I have access to runs from 2009-10 through the current season and covers the big 5 leagues in Europe. For the next few days, I’m mostly going to just post data from the top tiers of performers across Europe in particular seasons so that we have reference points to determine the awesome from the good from the merely average.

    Obviously one of the complications you run into is that different leagues have different strengths, and different teams (particularly Real Madrid and Barcelona) have incredible competitive advantages that seem to enhance performance of all their players. The Eredivisie (not in the current data set) has the highest scoring rate in Europe, while Ligue 1 has the lowest. Regardless, we don’t have an objective way of discounting this yet, so I’ll simply break things into league-based data dumps and for now you can make your own determinations.

    Goals per 90
    I covered this briefly yesterday, but it bears repeating.

    Goals are the most basic scoring stat we have. However, just looking at the total goals a player has at the end of the season discounts one particularly important element: playing time. Players that play more should contribute more in rate stats. This is why Benjamin Pugsley and I usually try to normalize rate stats into per 90s. It controls for total playing time (including time missed due to injury or sub appearances), which can be particularly useful when it comes to younger players who may not be full members of the first team yet.

    Another element that we want to “fix” here is goal inflation via penalty. Penalty kicks are generally converted at a 76% rate, year after year, and it doesn’t require an expert in goalscoring to do this. (Example: there have been a number of goalkeepers over the years who were designated penalty takers for their teams.) In short, it’s a different skill than normal goal scoring. Thus I’ve done my best to filter this out of the goal scoring information we’re looking at. We care more about guys who are banging them home from everywhere but the penalty spot.

    Going into this, I kind of had the running assumption that .4 goals per90 is the cutoff for being a useful top-level forward that is expected to score goals. Multiply .4 across 38 matches, and you get 15 goals a season – a good, but not great goal tally. (It’s probably great for wide players and midfielders, but that’s another article for another time.) At a later date, I’ll re-slice the data set into standard deviations and the like to get a real cutoff point, but for now let’s stay a bit more casual.

    In 2009-10, there were 98 players who scored goals at a rate of .4/90 or better, or just under 20 per league. That seems like a reasonable number. It’s not something everyone can do, but it does indicate a high level of contribution. The tallies for players meeting this threshold across the leagues in each year is

    2010: 98
    2011: 99
    2012: 104
    2013: 116

    Remove the penalty goals from those numbers, and you end up with

    2010: 76
    2011: 83
    2012: 81
    2013: 92

    Which strips out about 20-25% of the contenders per year on average.

    But what about elite? Where is the elite level of goalscoring?

    My first guess was around .6, or 50% more than the “useful” metric. Multiply it out by a full season and it delivers nearly 24 goals from 38 matches. That us a huge number and would put any player with that rate near the top of their league in scoring almost every single year.

    Again, a casual look at the numbers seems to bear this out. Number of players for each year meeting this threshold are as follows:

    2010: 18
    2011: 20
    2012: 19
    2013: 20

    So the surface breakdown of categories goes a bit like this:

    .4 to .49 non-penalty goals per 90: Good.
    .5 to .59 non-penalty goals per 90: Very good.
    .6 to .79 non-penalty goals per 90: Probable Top 20 in Europe
    .8 or above non-penalty goals per 90: Probable Top 5 in Europe

    [Note: These divisions aren’t perfect, and should definitely be adjusted a bit for younger players, as you expect their performance to increase until they hit their peak. If a younger player (say 22 or under) is putting up numbers in these brackets, they are probably pretty special.

    EPL 09-10

    Fernando TorresLiverpool19.0618180.94460.9446
    Didier DrogbaChelsea30.8229280.94090.9084
    Wayne RooneyManchester United30.2626220.85930.7271
    Jermain DefoeTottenham28.5218170.63110.596
    Emmanuel AdebayorManchester City24.58140.56960.5696
    Carlos TévezManchester City31.8723180.72180.5649
    Dimitar BerbatovManchester United23.29120.51530.5153
    Darren BentSunderland37.6424190.63750.5047
    Francesc FábregasArsenal24.3715120.61560.4925
    Florent MaloudaChelsea25.59120.4690.469
    Aruna DindanePortsmouth16.22870.49320.4315
    Louis SahaEverton25.8713110.50260.4253
    Andrey ArshavinArsenal25.17100.39740.3974

    LaLiga 09-10

    Lionel MessiBarcelona31.555634331.07751.0458
    Gonzalo HiguaínReal Madrid26.644427271.01331.0133
    Cristiano RonaldoReal Madrid27.444426220.94740.8016
    Luís FabianoSevilla18.266715140.82120.7664
    Zlatan IbrahimovicBarcelona22.616140.7080.6195
    David VillaValencia30.111121180.69740.5978
    Karim BenzemaReal Madrid14.488980.55210.5521
    Diego ForlánAtletico Madrid28.618150.62940.5245
    Roberto SoldadoGetafe25.216130.63490.5159
    Frederic KanoutéSevilla19.844412100.60470.5039
    Sergio AgüeroAtletico Madrid24.4556120.49070.4907
    Pablo OsvaldoEspanyol20.5556100.48650.4865
    Joseba LlorenteVillarreal19.677890.45740.4574
    RikiDeportivo La Coruna16.6222870.48130.4211
    Walter PandianiOsasuna26.8444110.40980.4098
    Álvaro NegredoSevilla22.68891190.48480.3967

    Bundesliga 09-10

    Arjen RobbenBayern Munich19.755616140.80990.7087
    Claudio PizarroWerder Bremen23.6667160.67610.6761
    CacauVfB Stuttgart19.3333130.67240.6724
    Lucas BarriosBorussia Dortmund29.1333190.65220.6522
    Edin DzekoWolfsburg33.344422200.65980.5998
    Stefan KießlingBayer Leverkusen32.455621190.6470.5854
    Kevin KuranyiSchalke 0431.1111180.57860.5786
    Ivica OlicBayern Munich19.9333110.55180.5518
    Ciprian MaricaVfB Stuttgart16.87781090.59250.5332
    Albert BunjakuNurnberg24.0667120.49860.4986
    Hugo AlmeidaWerder Bremen14.911170.46940.4694
    Mario GomezBayern Munich21.4778100.46560.4656
    Thomas MüllerBayern Munich29.3778130.44250.4425
    Eren DerdiyokBayer Leverkusen29.0556120.4130.413
    Adrián RamosHertha Berlin24.7889100.40340.4034
    Didier Ya KonanHannover 9622.388990.4020.402

    SerieA 09-10

    Antonio Di NataleUdinese33.466729230.86650.6873
    Maxi LópezCatania15.655611100.70260.6388
    Alexandre PatoAC Milan20.0333120.5990.599
    Mario BalotelliInter15.444490.58270.5827
    Diego MilitoInter31.988922180.68770.5627
    Marco BorrielloAC Milan24.544414130.57040.5297
    Valeri BojinovParma15.666780.51060.5106
    Emanuele CalaiòSiena16.822280.47560.4756
    Davide LanzafameParma14.966770.46770.4677
    Sergio FloccariGenoa21.488912100.55840.4654
    Fabrizio MiccoliPalermo28.819130.65970.4514
    Francesco TottiRoma19.97781490.70080.4505
    Giampaolo PazziniSampdoria35.955619160.52840.445
    Alberto GilardinoFiorentina32.677815140.4590.4284
    Mirko VucinicRoma28.333314120.49410.4235
    Simone TiribocchiAtalanta27.5778110.39890.3989
    Marco Di VaioBologna25.212100.47620.3968

    French 09-10

    Mevlut ErdingParis Saint Germain26.9444150.55670.5567
    Mamadou NiangMarseille27.677818150.65030.542
    Ireneusz JelenAuxerre26.9444140.51960.5196
    Kevin GameiroLorient33.2444170.51140.5114
    Pierre-Alain FrauLille23.613120.55080.5085
    Asamoah GyanRennes23.322213110.55740.4717
    Michel BastosLyon21.8889100.45690.4569
    Bafétimbi GomisLyon23.0444100.43390.4339
    Lisandro LópezLyon28.055615120.53470.4277
    Emmanuel RivièreSaint Etienne19.233380.41590.4159

    Check out Emmanuel Riviere sneaking in there at the bottom of the French table. He was 19 at the time – now plays for Monaco.

    Anyway, I’ll keep doing these more complete scoring charts for the next few days so the data is out there, and next week I’ll also start providing transfer recommendations for EPL squads.

    Article by Ted Knutson