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  • April 1, 2014

    English Premier League Thoughts and Figures – April 1st, 2014

    By Ted Knutson
  • I haven’t written one of these in a while because I’ve been focused on other work, but there’s plenty to discuss.

    How Do We Fix Spurs This Summer?
    pochettino
    First, you get a decent manager. Van Gaal is the name that’s been batted about, but there’s no reason for Spurs fans to be despondent if he doesn’t come. There are plenty of other sociopathic geniuses out there to choose from, the trick is finding the right one.

    Here are three: Thomas Schaaf, Thomas Tuchel, Markus Weinzierl. Yes, they are all German, but they are also all actually good at this whole managing and tactics business. Uncle Tim is not.

    Find Germans disagreeable? Fine. I think the best name I have heard for the Spurs job was floated as a possibility by the Telegraph this morning: Mauricio Pochettino.

    Sound defensive system? Check.

    Better than expected offense with decent, but not great players? Check.

    Used to working with a Director of Football system and ownership that isn’t completely attached to reality? Also check.

    Don’t underestimate what Pochettino actually did with Southampton. Before he came along, they were definite candidates for relegation under Nigel Adkins. After he came along, they were nowhere near relegation, and have taken fairly regular scalps from big teams in the Premier League. They are a very comfortable 8th this year, even after wasting £27M on Wanyama and Pablo Osvaldo. His tactical system is a lot like what AVB ran at Spurs, except Southampton players actually score when they shoot.

    Beyond the Spurs manager issue, it’s probably best for me to cede the floor to Tor-Kristian Karlsen, as I agree with just about everything he said yesterday on Twitter. (Note: read bottom up on each image.)

    karlsen_1

    and

    karlsen_2

    The attacking talent is mostly there, and I still think the buys they made last summer are pretty good, but evaluating them is complicated by the fact that guidance from the top has been seriously remiss. On the other hand, there is a problem with the Spurs defense. They need 1-2 center backs this summer and have to completely re-evaluate their fullback situation. Neither Dawson nor Kaboul (who used to be outstanding) have looked capable of playing against anyone in the top half of the table. Meanwhile, Kyle Naughton, who is 25 now, doesn’t belong anywhere near the starting lineup. That leaves the oft-injured Danny Rose (decent) and Kyle Walker (good), plus The Janimal, who might actually rip the still-beating heart out of the next manager that forces him to play left back.

    I don’t know where Spurs will get the money to re-tool this summer, but fix the manager issue and add quality and pace to the back line and they will again be good enough to compete for Champions League places. Hell, everything kind of fell apart on them this season and they are 2 points above Manchester United in the table. All is not lost.

    Something is Actually Wrong at Arsenal
    I’m going to start by assuming you read the piece from this weekend by Ben Pugsley. If not, click over there and come back to me.

    I haven’t written much about Arsenal this season because I really did not want to be that downer fan standing on the side saying, “Hey guys… something’s not right here.” I just wanted to enjoy the ride and hope that they continued to over perform.

    Writing about Tottenham’s self-destruction? Good fun!

    Writing about Liverpool’s analytical revolution and march up the table? Also good fun!

    Writing about how Arsenal’s baseline numbers are falling off a cliff this year? It just irritates people.

    This kind of needs to be said though.

    arsenal_shot_trends

    That’s…

    I can’t…

    What the hell is going on here? *Goes to sob in the corner*

    Forget Manchester United’s transition from Fergie to Moyes – that is the saddest chart I have ever seen. [Disclaimer: I’m an Arsenal fan.]

    ARSENAL ARE TENTH IN THE LEAGUE IN SHOTS PER GAME THIS SEASON!

    Yes, it fails to account for shot quality for or against, but basic shots  and that differential captures the broad strokes. Going from a 7.2 shot differential per game – a number that would generally compete for the top of the league – to a 1.5 over the course of five seasons is staggering. Even more staggering is that Arsenal have done it under the same manager (and are still about 80% likely to finish 4th).

    The first reason most Arsenal fans would point to is injuries. The problem with this theory is that Arsenal always have a lot of injuries. In fact, they are almost always near or at the top of the injury table in terms of player games missed due to injury, and this happens every season and is not just because Abou Diaby is broken.

    Because Arsenal always lead the injury table, I’m lead to think there is definitely a problem with regard to their fitness regime. Either they are training wrong, have the wrong expectations in terms of how much training and game time most players can endure before they are likely to pick up injuries, or they have too few players for their typical game load (in short: the squad needs to be bigger). I am not an expert in sports science and I don’t know how things operate specifically at Arsenal, but the fact that this problem is constant means they need to do something different going forward or the problem will always exist.

    Another major issue with Arsenal this season is quite simple: They have no zoom. Pace. Meep-meep.

    With Theo Walcott out, Arsenal have zero players in the attack that actually scare opposing defenders, either when running on to throughballs (an Ozil specialty) or running at defenders off the dribble. Compare that to City (Aguero, Navas, Silva) or Liverpool (Suarez, Sturridge, Sterling, Coutinho), and the differences become stark.

    Lack of pace means tighter marking to the players up front. It also means less space to exploit between the back line of the defense and the midfield bank of four, which makes it harder to Arsenal’s intricate passing game to operate, and means you have less space for all of those talented attacking midfielders to do their thing. It also means slower recovery speed from attack to defense, and it creates a whole host of secondary issues that aren’t entirely obvious.

    I actually saw the esteemed Arseblog and Orbinho discussing the quality of Arsenal’s crossing this morning, and Giroud’s ability to get on the end of them and my jaw dropped. Given how Arsenal have played in years past under Wenger, this whole crossing business should be a tertiary concern. However, because the entire squad lacks pace going forward, it suddenly matters. That’s definitely not part of the plan.

    So there’s no pace in the squad, the talent level in attack is a huge question mark, and multiple important players are constantly injured and have been for years.

    Things are very much not right at Arsenal, but they used to be. Money is no longer a problem, but maybe the correct perspective to diagnose and treat the issues is.

    We’ll know more next year.

    Failed Stats Experiments
    The theory that tackles and interceptions have no statistical correlation to goals against and the like bugs me. It’s correct – there is no correlation from either – but defense is also tremendously important. It likely means that we’re measuring the wrong stuff from games, or we haven’t figured out how to adjust the stuff that we are measuring in a way that is important. I can also tell you from my player research that having higher levels of Int and Tack in your stat sheet seems fairly significant, but at the team level? Meh.

    With this in mind, I started thinking about how to “fix” the base stats collected. If a team has the ball, they can’t make defensive actions. Therefore possession is a limiting factor on potential defensive actions! A team like Bayern, who has had more than twice as much possession than their opponents, has far fewer opportunities to even perform defensive actions unless they go rogue and start stealing the ball from their teammates. A breakthrough!

    Or so I thought. I did the regression analysis on Tackles plus Interceptions per game at the team level and compared it against various metrics it should impact like Shots Conceded, Goals Against, etc and found…

    Normalizing by possession ends up giving defensive actions the same correlation as possession itself.

    Which probably makes sense, but I was hoping for more.

    It’s entirely possible I screwed things up or missed a different way to attack this problem, so with that in mind, I have included the data set at the end of this article for all of you to play with. In the meantime, I’ll keep working on this, because I am sure defense matters… I just don’t know how to prove it yet.

    Opta_200px

    SeasonLeagueTeamShots conceded pgTackles pgInterceptions pgPossPoss_RatTackNIntNIandTNGAGDPts
    2010EPLArsenal10.221.522.159.70.59731.8498759332.7387096864.58858561414275
    2010EPLAston Villa16.123.218.247.30.47320.822770416.3351043637.15787476391364
    2010EPLBirmingham17.320.720.446.80.46818.2097744417.9458646636.155639147-950
    2010EPLBlackburn13.418.719.244.40.44414.9330935315.332374130.2654676355-1450
    2010EPLBolton16.32419.343.10.43118.1792618614.6191564132.7984182867-2539
    2010EPLBurnley16.818.117.448.90.48917.3207436416.6508806333.9716242782-4030
    2010EPLChelsea9.820.318.659.90.59930.323441427.784039958.1074813327186
    2010EPLEverton13.420.221.851.50.51521.4494845423.1484536144.59793814491161
    2010EPLFulham14.719.619.849.90.49919.5217564919.7209580839.2427145746-746
    2010EPLHull17.42017.743.50.43515.3982300913.6274336329.0256637275-4130
    2010EPLLiverpool10.225.220.158.70.58735.8169491528.5682808764.38523002352663
    2010EPLManchester City13.621.121.2530.5323.7936170223.9063829847.7452867
    2010EPLManchester United10.921.815.858.10.58130.2286396221.9088305552.13747017285885
    2010EPLPortsmouth15.520.417.9480.4818.8307692316.5230769235.3538461566-3219
    2010EPLStoke15.319.119.440.40.40412.9469798713.1503355726.0973154448-1447
    2010EPLSunderland16.323.421.846.10.46120.0137291318.6452690238.6589981456-844
    2010EPLTottenham13.722.221.252.30.52324.340880523.2444444447.58532495412670
    2010EPLWest Ham15.921.819.948.90.48920.8614481419.0432485339.9046966766-1935
    2010EPLWigan14.323.919.652.30.52326.204821821.4901467547.6949685579-4236
    2010EPLWolverhampton Wanderers15.618.614.147.20.47216.6272727312.6045454529.2318181856-2438
    2011EPLArsenal10.620.318.760.30.60330.8335012628.4032745659.23677582432968
    2011EPLAston Villa15.822.217.648.70.48721.074853816.707992237.78284659-1148
    2011EPLBirmingham18.217.615.147.60.47615.9877862613.7167938929.7045801558-2139
    2011EPLBlackburn16.219.719.341.30.41313.86047713.57904627.43952359-1343
    2011EPLBlackpool19.520.511.949.60.49620.1746031711.7111111131.8857142978-2339
    2011EPLBolton15.824.716.546.40.46421.3820895514.2835820935.6656716456-446
    2011EPLChelsea11.620.216.258.80.58828.8291262123.1203883551.94951456333671
    2011EPLEverton13.320.212.450.60.50620.6906882612.7012145733.3919028345654
    2011EPLFulham14.12117.650.10.50121.0841683417.6705410838.7547094243649
    2011EPLLiverpool1323.915.652.10.52125.9956158716.9678496942.96346555441558
    2011EPLManchester City13.521.716.653.10.53124.5686567218.7944562943.36311301332771
    2011EPLManchester United12.118.21756.30.56323.4475972521.9016018345.34919908374180
    2011EPLNewcastle United13.317.51650.40.50417.7822580616.2580645234.0403225857-146
    2011EPLStoke14.418.81438.90.38911.969230778.91325695620.8824877348-246
    2011EPLSunderland14.521.618.348.30.48320.179497117.0965183837.2760154756-1147
    2011EPLTottenham14.919.817.453.80.53823.0571428620.2623376643.3194805246962
    2011EPLWest Bromwich Albion14.119.117.448.30.48317.8439071616.25570634.0996131571-1547
    2011EPLWest Ham18.320.615.344.70.44716.6513562412.3672694429.0186256870-2733
    2011EPLWigan13.324.120.150.10.50124.1965931920.1805611244.3771543161-2142
    2011EPLWolverhampton Wanderers15.117.813.750.70.50718.3054766714.0890466532.3945233366-2040
    2012EPLArsenal10.519.715.960.20.60229.7974874424.0497487453.84723618492570
    2012EPLAston Villa15.320.419.543.90.43915.9636363615.2593582931.2229946553-1638
    2012EPLBlackburn16.418.218.841.80.41813.0714776613.502405526.5738831678-3031
    2012EPLBolton17.319.318.346.60.46616.842322115.9696629232.8119850277-3136
    2012EPLChelsea11.818.416.855.80.55823.2289592821.2090497744.43800905461964
    2012EPLEverton12.516.416.2480.4815.1384615414.9538461530.09230769401056
    2012EPLFulham15.517.616.949.40.49417.182608716.4992094933.6818181851-352
    2012EPLLiverpool11.219.213.355.50.55523.9460674216.5876404540.5337078740752
    2012EPLManchester City10.518.316.658.20.58225.4799043123.1129186648.59282297296489
    2012EPLManchester United13.421.115.157.70.57728.7817966920.5973995349.37919622335689
    2012EPLNewcastle United14.319.616.347.30.47317.5916508514.6297912732.2214421351565
    2012EPLNorwich16.218.212.346.80.46816.0105263210.8203007526.8308270766-1447
    2012EPLQueens Park Rangers16.620.114.445.10.45116.5120218611.829508228.3415300566-2337
    2012EPLStoke14.217.212.140.30.40311.610720278.168006719.7787269753-1745
    2012EPLSunderland16.321.717.244.60.44617.4696750913.8469314131.316606546-145
    2012EPLSwansea15.718.715.2580.5825.8238095220.9904761946.8142857151-747
    2012EPLTottenham12.219.318.856.70.56725.2727482724.6180138649.89076212412569
    2012EPLWest Bromwich Albion15.61814.645.80.45815.210332112.3372693727.5476014852-747
    2012EPLWigan14.719.215.250.30.50319.4317907415.3835010134.8152917562-2043
    2012EPLWolverhampton Wanderers17.616.315.748.20.48215.1671814714.6088803129.7760617882-4225
    2013EPLArsenal10.619.716.758.20.58227.429186623.2521531150.68133971373573
    2013EPLAston Villa16.819.520.245.60.45616.3455882416.9323529433.2779411869-2241
    2013EPLChelsea12.218.713.354.40.54422.3087719315.8666666738.1754386393675
    2013EPLEverton11.918.915.652.90.52921.2273885417.5210191138.74840764401563
    2013EPLFulham16.817.919.648.90.48917.1293542118.7561643835.8855185960-1043
    2013EPLLiverpool11.420.913.857.20.57227.931775718.4429906546.37476636432861
    2013EPLManchester City10.41812.9580.5824.8571428617.8142857142.67142857343278
    2013EPLManchester United12.919.213.656.20.56224.6356164417.4502283142.08584475434389
    2013EPLNewcastle United13.419.312.648.60.48618.2486381311.9136186830.1622568168-2341
    2013EPLNorwich14.117.814.243.20.43213.5380281710.824.3380281758-1744
    2013EPLQueens Park Rangers15.921.517.444.90.44917.519963714.1789473731.6989110760-3025
    2013EPLReading18.615.814.740.70.40710.8441821210.0892074220.9333895473-3028
    2013EPLSouthampton11.921.620.552.50.52523.8736842122.6578947446.5315789560-1141
    2013EPLStoke14.419.113.143.30.43314.5860670210.0040564424.5901234645-1142
    2013EPLSunderland16.820.615.343.10.43115.6038664311.5892794427.1931458754-1339
    2013EPLSwansea14.918.118.555.30.55322.3921700222.8870246145.2791946351-446
    2013EPLTottenham9.719.619530.5322.1021276621.4255319143.52765957462072
    2013EPLWest Bromwich Albion15.718.49.945.90.45915.611090578.39944547124.0105360457-449
    2013EPLWest Ham16.519.212.143.70.43714.903019549.39200710524.2950266453-846
    2013EPLWigan14.118.818.454.40.54422.4280701821.9508771944.3789473773-2636
    2010BundesligaBayer Leverkusen8.321.417.654.40.54425.5298245620.9964912346.52631579382759
    2010BundesligaBayern Munich1120.913.561.20.61232.9659793821.2938144354.25979381314170
    2010BundesligaBochum15.921.515.941.70.41715.3782161211.3727272726.750943464-3128
    2010BundesligaBorussia Dortmund11.827.22149.40.49426.5549407120.5019762847.056917421257
    2010BundesligaBorussia M.Gladbach16.922.615.745.10.45118.5657559212.8974499131.4632058360-1739
    2010BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt13.719.416.150.50.50519.7919191916.4252525336.2171717254-746
    2010BundesligaFC Cologne13.819.11847.40.47417.2117870716.2205323233.4323193942-938
    2010BundesligaFreiburg1519.911.843.10.43115.073637968.93813708324.0117750459-2435
    2010BundesligaHamburger SV12.620.315.555.80.55825.6276018119.567873345.19547511411552
    2010BundesligaHannover 9612.920.117.548.70.48719.0812865516.6130604335.6943469867-2433
    2010BundesligaHertha Berlin13.622.116.448.20.48220.5640926615.2602316635.8243243256-2224
    2010BundesligaHoffenheim10.523.419.551.90.51925.2486486521.0405405446.2891891942242
    2010BundesligaMainz 0514.522.120.246.50.46519.2084112117.5570093536.7654205642-647
    2010BundesligaNurnberg13.622.315.249.90.49922.2109780415.1393213637.350299458-2631
    2010BundesligaSchalke 0410.621.914.7480.4820.2153846213.5692307733.78461538312265
    2010BundesligaVfB Stuttgart1218.615.953.30.53321.2286937918.1471092139.375803411055
    2010BundesligaWerder Bremen10.520.517.155.30.55325.3612975421.1550335646.5163311403161
    2010BundesligaWolfsburg17.422.813.149.70.49722.5280318112.9437375735.4717693858650
    2011BundesligaBayer Leverkusen9.421.517.555.60.55626.9234234221.9144144148.83783784442068
    2011BundesligaBayern Munich11.421.21461.70.61734.1524804222.553524856.70600522404165
    2011BundesligaBorussia Dortmund9.125.419.4530.5328.6425531921.8765957450.51914894224575
    2011BundesligaBorussia M.Gladbach14.822.917.342.80.42817.1349650312.9447552430.0797202865-1736
    2011BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt14.419.92050.50.50520.302020220.404040440.7060606149-1834
    2011BundesligaFC Cologne15.921.415.743.80.43816.6782918112.2359430628.9142348862-1544
    2011BundesligaFreiburg14.418.718.346.20.46216.0583643115.7148698931.773234250-944
    2011BundesligaHamburger SV1221.816.454.40.54426.0070175419.5649122845.5719298252-645
    2011BundesligaHannover 9613.420.115.345.90.45917.0534195912.9809611830.0343807845460
    2011BundesligaHoffenheim12.925.417.6500.525.417.64350043
    2011BundesligaKaiserslautern13.421.517.147.60.47619.5305343515.5335877935.0641221451-346
    2011BundesligaMainz 0512.626.420.950.20.50226.6120481921.0678714947.67991968391358
    2011BundesligaNurnberg10.421.514.248.10.48119.9258188813.1603082933.0861271745247
    2011BundesligaSchalke 041319.917.452.10.52121.6448851818.925678540.5705636744-640
    2011BundesligaSt. Pauli13.722.317.447.50.47520.1761904815.7428571435.9190476268-3329
    2011BundesligaVfB Stuttgart14.921.619.548.20.48220.098841718.1447876438.2436293459142
    2011BundesligaWerder Bremen12.621.618.753.20.53224.5538461521.2572649645.8111111161-1441
    2011BundesligaWolfsburg14.420.716490.4919.8882352915.3725490235.2607843148-538
    2012BundesligaAugsburg14.122.822.243.70.43717.697335717.2316163434.9289520449-1338
    2012BundesligaBayer Leverkusen13.719.522.552.40.52421.4663865524.7689075646.2352941244854
    2012BundesligaBayern Munich8.519.719.563.90.63934.8706371234.516620569.38725762225573
    2012BundesligaBorussia Dortmund9.72619.355.10.55131.906458823.684409855.5908686255581
    2012BundesligaBorussia M.Gladbach11.520.921.555.40.55425.9609865526.7062780352.66726457242560
    2012BundesligaFC Cologne15.521.621.444.10.44117.0404293416.8826475833.9230769275-3630
    2012BundesligaFreiburg13.32223.648.40.48420.6356589122.1364341142.7720930261-1640
    2012BundesligaHamburger SV14.522.620.752.30.52324.7794549322.6962264247.4756813457-2236
    2012BundesligaHannover 9613.619.820.849.10.49119.0998035420.0644400839.1642436145-448
    2012BundesligaHertha Berlin14.923.722.944.80.44819.2347826118.5855072537.8202898664-2631
    2012BundesligaHoffenheim12.426.520.149.80.49826.2888446219.9398406446.2286852647-641
    2012BundesligaKaiserslautern14.421.918.248.20.48220.3779922816.9351351437.3131274154-3023
    2012BundesligaMainz 0512.225.92247.80.47823.7168582420.1455938743.8624521151-439
    2012BundesligaNurnberg1122.221.946.20.46219.0639405218.806319737.8702602249-1142
    2012BundesligaSchalke 0413.123.227.651.50.51524.6350515529.3072164953.94226804443064
    2012BundesligaVfB Stuttgart15.122.421.752.20.52224.4619246923.6974895448.15941423461753
    2012BundesligaWerder Bremen13.825.624.950.60.50626.2218623525.504858351.7267206558-942
    2012BundesligaWolfsburg12.124.418.844.60.44619.643321315.1350180534.7783393560-1344
    2013BundesligaAugsburg12.222.919.347.60.47620.8022900817.5320610738.3343511551-1833
    2013BundesligaBayer Leverkusen12.322.920.649.20.49222.1787401619.951181142.12992126392665
    2013BundesligaBayern Munich8.218.314.663.60.63631.9747252725.5098901157.48461538188091
    2013BundesligaBorussia Dortmund9.825.517.255.80.55832.1923076921.7140271553.90633484423966
    2013BundesligaBorussia M.Gladbach15.42015.548.90.48919.1389432514.8326810233.9716242749-447
    2013BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt12.821.31853.20.53224.2128205120.4615384644.6743589746351
    2013BundesligaFortuna Dusseldorf14.325.819.8420.4218.6827586214.3379310333.0206896657-1830
    2013BundesligaFreiburg12.320.521.352.90.52923.0244161423.9229299446.9473460740551
    2013BundesligaGreuther Furth13.826.118.441.40.41418.4392491512.9993174131.4385665560-3421
    2013BundesligaHamburger SV15.322.621.453.40.53425.8978540824.5227467850.4206008653-1148
    2013BundesligaHannover 9615.219.918.847.10.47117.7181474516.7387523634.4568998162-245
    2013BundesligaHoffenheim13.124.117.846.10.46120.6124304315.2241187435.8365491767-2531
    2013BundesligaMainz 0512.223.719.7500.523.719.743.444-242
    2013BundesligaNurnberg13.421.716.145.50.45518.1165137613.441284431.5577981747-844
    2013BundesligaSchalke 0411.224.320.652.80.52827.1830508523.044067850.2271186450855
    2013BundesligaVfB Stuttgart14.825.720.949.50.49525.1910891120.4861386145.6772277255-1843
    2013BundesligaWerder Bremen11.724.219.850.50.50524.6888888920.244.8888888966-1634
    2013BundesligaWolfsburg12.524.520.250.60.50625.095141720.6906882645.7858299652-543
    2010LaLigaAlmeria16.720.223.547.80.47818.4973180121.5191570940.016475155-1242
    2010LaLigaAthletic Bilbao14.920.223.542.90.42915.176532417.655866932.832399353-354
    2010LaLigaAtletico Madrid13.52018.351.10.51120.899795519.1233128840.0231083861-447
    2010LaLigaBarcelona8.620.320.668.40.68443.9405063344.5898734288.53037975247499
    2010LaLigaDeportivo La Coruna15.819.612.645.60.45616.4294117610.5617647126.9911764749-1447
    2010LaLigaEspanyol12.819.219.550.50.50519.5878787919.8939393939.4818181846-1744
    2010LaLigaGetafe13.218.818.755.20.55223.1642857123.0410714346.20535714481058
    2010LaLigaMalaga13.319.52144.90.44915.8901996417.1125226933.0027223248-637
    2010LaLigaMallorca1219.723.244.30.44315.6680430918.4517055734.11974865441562
    2010LaLigaOsasuna13.91617.445.30.45313.2504570414.4098720327.6603290746-943
    2010LaLigaReal Madrid10.320.721.659.60.59630.5376237631.8653465362.4029703356796
    2010LaLigaSantander13.819.820.846.10.46116.9346938817.7899814534.7246753259-1739
    2010LaLigaSevilla12.417.117.853.40.53419.5952789720.3974248939.99270386491663
    2010LaLigaSporting Gijon14.122.318.142.90.42916.7542907213.5987740830.353064851-1540
    2010LaLigaTenerife12.421.125.4510.5121.9612244926.4367346948.3979591874-3436
    2010LaLigaValencia12.220.917.657.10.57127.8179487223.4256410351.24358974401971
    2010LaLigaValladolid12.520.620.448.10.48119.0917148418.9063583837.9980732262-2536
    2010LaLigaVillarreal1121.521.450.60.50622.0222672121.9198380643.9421052657156
    2010LaLigaXerez15.819.615.245.40.45416.297435912.6388278428.9362637466-2834
    2010LaLigaZaragoza12.222.718.349.70.49722.4292246518.0817097440.5109343964-1841
    2011LaLigaAlmeria15.822.722.446.80.46819.9691729319.7052631639.6744360970-3430
    2011LaLigaAthletic Bilbao12.720.624.147.50.47518.6380952421.804761940.4428571455458
    2011LaLigaAtletico Madrid13.621.722.250.10.50121.7869739522.2889779644.075951953958
    2011LaLigaBarcelona7.418.518.272.60.72649.0182481848.2233576697.24160584217496
    2011LaLigaDeportivo La Coruna13.320.326.543.80.43815.8209964420.6530249136.4740213547-1643
    2011LaLigaEspanyol13.319.82152.90.52922.2382165623.5859872645.8242038255-949
    2011LaLigaGetafe13.820.126.5510.5120.9204081627.5816326548.5020408260-1144
    2011LaLigaHercules14.619.626.850.60.50620.0761133627.4510121547.5271255160-2435
    2011LaLigaLevante14.31925.441.80.41813.6460481118.2426116831.8886597952-1145
    2011LaLigaMalaga15.220.825.948.50.48519.5883495124.3912621443.9796116568-1446
    2011LaLigaMallorca12.619.724.246.30.46316.9852886420.8651769137.8504655556-1544
    2011LaLigaOsasuna13.718.325.647.40.47416.4908745223.0692015239.5600760546-147
    2011LaLigaReal Madrid10.222.421.856.80.56829.4518518528.6629629658.11481481336992
    2011LaLigaReal Sociedad16.121.324.645.90.45918.071534220.8713493538.9428835566-1745
    2011LaLigaSantander13.12029.546.70.46717.5234521625.8470919343.3705440956-1546
    2011LaLigaSevilla12.619.320.453.90.53922.5655097623.851626946.4171366661158
    2011LaLigaSporting Gijon11.922.925.2430.4317.275438619.0105263236.2859649142-747
    2011LaLigaValencia13.419.223.356.70.56725.1418013930.5106235655.65242494442071
    2011LaLigaVillarreal1222.824.653.20.53225.9179487227.9641025653.88205128441062
    2011LaLigaZaragoza12.124.627.944.50.44519.7243243222.3702702742.0945945953-1345
    2012LaLigaAthletic Bilbao1524.731.657.70.57733.6924349943.1044917376.7969267152-349
    2012LaLigaAtletico Madrid11.624.427.651.20.51225.628.9573770554.5573770546756
    2012LaLigaBarcelona7.319.919.169.70.69745.7765676643.9363036389.71287129298591
    2012LaLigaEspanyol12.523.228.254.30.54327.5658643333.5067833761.072647756-1046
    2012LaLigaGetafe13.62232.745.30.45318.2193784327.0806215745.351-1147
    2012LaLigaGranada15.220.828.346.80.46818.2977443624.8954887243.1932330856-2142
    2012LaLigaLevante14.423.733.240.60.40616.198989922.6922558938.8912457950455
    2012LaLigaMalaga10.623.930.952.10.52125.9956158733.6093945759.6050104453158
    2012LaLigaMallorca13.623.133.743.90.43918.0764705926.3713012544.4477718446-452
    2012LaLigaOsasuna1423.934.445.70.45720.1147329728.9517495449.066482561-1754
    2012LaLigaRayo Vallecano12.324.135.950.90.50924.9835030537.2160896162.1995926773-2043
    2012LaLigaReal Betis13.121.93450.70.50722.5219066934.9655172457.4874239456-947
    2012LaLigaReal Madrid10.221.916.459.30.59331.9083538123.8948402955.80319413289100
    2012LaLigaReal Sociedad14.324.536.345.60.45620.5367647130.4279411850.9647058852-647
    2012LaLigaSantander16.721.229.739.60.39613.8993377519.4721854333.3715231863-3527
    2012LaLigaSevilla12.520.725520.5222.42527.0833333349.5083333347150
    2012LaLigaSporting Gijon14.927.333.343.10.43120.6789103725.2237258345.902636269-2737
    2012LaLigaValencia11.920.126.756.30.56325.8954233434.3983981760.29382151441561
    2012LaLigaVillarreal12.924.233.150.30.50324.4921529233.4995975957.991750553-1441
    2012LaLigaZaragoza1424.236.8450.4519.830.1090909149.9090909161-2543
    2013LaLigaAthletic Bilbao15.724.417.456.60.56631.8211981622.692165954.5133640665-2145
    2013LaLigaAtletico Madrid10.12316.247.60.47620.8931297714.7160305335.60916031313476
    2013LaLigaBarcelona9.119.414.9690.6943.1806451633.1645161376.345161294075100
    2013LaLigaCelta Vigo13.121.418.948.60.48620.2342412517.8704280238.1046692652-1537
    2013LaLigaDeportivo La Coruna14.120.815.2490.4919.9843137314.6039215734.5882352970-2335
    2013LaLigaEspanyol13.724.617.145.30.45320.372577714.1614259634.5340036652-944
    2013LaLigaGetafe13.521.217.545.60.45617.7705882414.6691176532.4397058857-1447
    2013LaLigaGranada14.221.51643.70.43716.6882770912.4191829529.1074600454-1742
    2013LaLigaLevante15.622.618.136.50.36512.9905511810.4039370123.3944881957-1746
    2013LaLigaMalaga1322.617.852.30.52324.7794549319.5165618444.2960167750357
    2013LaLigaMallorca14.320.115.942.10.42114.6150259111.561139926.176165872-2936
    2013LaLigaOsasuna11.922.918.4490.4922.0019607817.6784313739.6803921650-1739
    2013LaLigaRayo Vallecano13.521.915.7580.5830.2428571421.6809523851.9238095266-1653
    2013LaLigaReal Betis13.919.917.947.20.47217.7893939416.0015151533.7909090956156
    2013LaLigaReal Madrid11.819.214.255.70.55724.1408577917.8541760741.99503386426185
    2013LaLigaReal Sociedad13.421.215.5520.5222.9666666716.7916666739.75833333492166
    2013LaLigaSevilla12.422.114.353.40.53425.324892716.3866952841.7115879854450
    2013LaLigaValencia11.922.616.153.40.53425.8978540818.4493562244.3472103541365
    2013LaLigaValladolid15.921.415.849.60.49621.0603174615.5492063536.6095238158-943
    2013LaLigaZaragoza11.520.416.245.70.45717.1690607713.6342541430.8033149262-2534
    2010SerieAAC Milan13.619.619.260.50.60530.0202531629.4075949459.4278481392170
    2010SerieAAtalanta12.918.118.352.80.52820.2474576320.4711864440.7186440753-1635
    2010SerieABari15.221.217.5500.521.217.538.749050
    2010SerieABologna16.118.920.444.50.44515.1540540516.3567567631.5108108155-1342
    2010SerieACagliari14.523.217.9470.4720.5735849115.8735849136.4471698158-244
    2010SerieACatania13.821.320.644.90.44917.356987316.7865698734.1435571745-145
    2010SerieAChievo13.422.323.9430.4316.8228070218.0298245634.8526315842-544
    2010SerieAFiorentina11.320.416.752.30.52322.367295618.3104821840.6777777847147
    2010SerieAGenoa13.424.819.351.70.51726.5457556920.6585921347.2043478361-451
    2010SerieAInter12.621.819.756.50.56528.3149425325.5873563253.90229885344182
    2010SerieAJuventus11.119.618.454.30.54323.2884026321.8625820645.1509846856-155
    2010SerieALazio12.719.119.448.80.48818.204687518.49062536.695312543-446
    2010SerieALivorno13.820.419460.4617.3777777816.1851851933.5629629661-3429
    2010SerieANapoli11.421.519.4520.5223.2916666721.0166666744.3083333343759
    2010SerieAPalermo16.919.516.648.80.48818.585937515.82187534.4078125471265
    2010SerieAParma14.123.620.848.80.48822.4937519.82542.3187551-552
    2010SerieARoma12.521.420.950.20.50221.5718875521.0678714942.63975904412780
    2010SerieASampdoria12.319.419.648.20.48218.0517374518.2378378436.2895752941867
    2010SerieASiena13.416.61947.90.47915.2618042217.4683301332.7301343667-2731
    2010SerieAUdinese14.52119.951.80.51822.5684647321.3863070543.9547717859-544
    2011SerieAAC Milan11.521.815.859.60.59632.1603960423.3089108955.46930693244182
    2011SerieABari15.318.418.250.80.50818.9983739818.7918699237.790243956-2924
    2011SerieABologna14.321.317.750.40.50421.6435483917.9854838739.6290322652-1742
    2011SerieABrescia15.919.216.944.90.44915.6457350313.7715063529.4172413852-1832
    2011SerieACagliari12.523.419.249.20.49222.6629921318.5952755941.2582677251-745
    2011SerieACatania11.421.115.846.10.46118.0465677213.513543631.5601113252-1246
    2011SerieACesena15.722.117.945.30.45318.3021937814.8239488133.126142650-1243
    2011SerieAChievo14.320.421.246.80.46817.9458646618.6496240636.5954887240-246
    2011SerieAFiorentina14.519.613.149.10.49118.9068762312.636738731.5436149344551
    2011SerieAGenoa13.223.114.850.10.50123.1925851714.8593186438.0519038147-251
    2011SerieAInter14.318.818.857.70.57725.6444444425.6444444451.28888889422776
    2011SerieAJuventus12.92117.2500.52117.238.2471058
    2011SerieALazio13.62115.152.90.52923.5859872616.9594479840.54543524391666
    2011SerieALecce14.223.618.342.80.42817.6587412613.6930069931.3517482566-2041
    2011SerieANapoli1221.718.454.40.54425.887719321.9508771947.83859649392070
    2011SerieAPalermo15.420.717.950.40.50421.0338709718.1887096839.2225806563-556
    2011SerieAParma14.720.715.749.20.49220.048031515.2055118135.2535433147-846
    2011SerieARoma14.420.617.952.90.52923.1367303620.1042462843.2409766552763
    2011SerieASampdoria13.319.918.3480.4818.3692307716.8923076935.2615384649-1636
    2011SerieAUdinese13.720.817.749.20.49220.1448818917.1425196937.28740157432266
    2012SerieAAC Milan12.221.417.459.70.59731.7017369725.7761786657.47791563334180
    2012SerieAAtalanta13.422.517.849.50.49522.0544554517.4475247539.501980243-246
    2012SerieABologna1423.420.545.90.45919.8532347517.3927911337.2460258843-251
    2012SerieACagliari11.32320.450.10.50123.0921843720.4817635343.573947946-943
    2012SerieACatania1422.218.947.90.47920.4103646817.3763915537.7867562452-548
    2012SerieACesena1622.121.243.40.43416.945936416.2558303933.2017667860-3622
    2012SerieAChievo13.323.821.945.70.45720.030570918.4314917138.4620626245-1049
    2012SerieAFiorentina12.121.818.248.60.48620.6124513617.2085603137.8210116743-646
    2012SerieAGenoa1624.220.748.20.48222.5181467219.2613899641.7795366869-1942
    2012SerieAInter11.423.120.153.90.53927.0084598723.5008676850.5093275555358
    2012SerieAJuventus9.323.617.561.20.61237.2247422727.6030927864.82783505204884
    2012SerieALazio12.321.719.249.60.49621.3555555618.895238140.2507936547962
    2012SerieALecce14.421.616.747.70.47719.700191215.2311663534.9313575556-1636
    2012SerieANapoli11.923.119.853.50.53526.5774193522.7806451649.35806452462061
    2012SerieANovara17.120.719.145.70.45717.4215469616.0749539633.4965009265-3032
    2012SerieAPalermo15.722.418.6470.4719.8641509416.4943396236.3584905762-1043
    2012SerieAParma12.424.120.246.70.46721.1157598517.6986866838.8144465353156
    2012SerieARoma13.319.818.560.40.60430.228.2171717258.4171717254656
    2012SerieASiena13.123.620.944.30.44318.7698384216.6224416535.3922800745044
    2012SerieAUdinese14.12315.850.90.50923.8431771916.3792260740.22240326351764
    2013SerieAAC Milan10.323.113.457.70.57731.5099290818.27848749.78841608392872
    2013SerieAAtalanta15.22414.347.50.47521.7142857112.9380952434.6523809556-1740
    2013SerieABologna13.723.916.148.10.48122.1500963414.9211946137.0712909452-644
    2013SerieACagliari14.421.815.350.20.50221.975100415.4228915737.3979919755-1247
    2013SerieACatania14.523.815.546.10.46120.3558441613.2569573333.6128014846456
    2013SerieAChievo13.522.615.845.50.45518.8678899113.1908256932.058715652-1545
    2013SerieAFiorentina10.620.315.756.70.56726.5822170920.5586605147.1408776442870
    2013SerieAGenoa13.525.315.146.30.46321.8135940413.0191806334.8327746752-1438
    2013SerieAInter13.524.214.452.30.52326.5337526215.7886792542.3224318757-254
    2013SerieAJuventus1024.714.957.70.57733.6924349920.3245862954.01702128244787
    2013SerieALazio1223.415.650.60.50623.9684210515.9789473739.9473684242961
    2013SerieANapoli12.823.614.354.20.54227.9283842816.9227074244.8510917363778
    2013SerieAPalermo13.825.316.250.10.50125.4014028116.2649298641.6663326754-2032
    2013SerieAParma11.823.716.350.60.50624.275708516.6959514240.9716599246-149
    2013SerieAPescara17.72314.744.90.44918.7422867511.9787658830.7210526384-5722
    2013SerieARoma13.321.316.255.10.55126.1387527819.8801781746.01893096561562
    2013SerieASampdoria13.921.216460.4618.0592592613.6296296331.6888888951-842
    2013SerieASiena1422.415.743.30.43317.1061728411.9895943629.095767257-2130
    2013SerieATorino12.823.713.649.60.49623.3238095213.3841269836.7079365155-939
    2013SerieAUdinese13.923.416.147.90.47921.5136276414.8021113236.31573896451466
    Article by Ted Knutson