Gesundheit (Day 2 of Nate Silver's wonderful trip to Brazil)
When I was growing up I used to love books about circuses and carnivals, much more so than I enjoyed circuses or carnivals themselves. The reason for that was that I was mostly interested in the people who worked the shows and how they ended up there. I still distinctly remember a lion tamer who worked three shows a night. In the early show he stuck his arm into the lion’s mouth. In the prime time show he stuck his head into the lion’s mouth. In the late show he risked what was most precious to him. After one such late show the strongman came up to the lion tamer and asked him how he could be so brave. The lion tamer answered “There’s nothing to be afraid of, except perhaps a sneeze.”
In game one Nate Silver stuck his REDACTED into the lion’s mouth, and the lion almost sneezed. At multiple times in that game Brazil was an underdog to win outright. Thankfully, it’s good to be at home and Brazil was gifted a goal, while Croatia had a good opportunity at one taken away. Brazil didn’t look like anything close to the best team in the world, and if that is how they play for the rest of the tournament, it won’t be:
No such risks in game 2, as Nate will be risking $2,157 on Cameroon to win $6,255.
538 caught a little bit of a break for game three as I already entered their game 3 stake of $5,254 on the Netherlands to win $25,219 (4.54% of the bankroll, presuming Cameroon fails to win). The line has moved slightly toward the Netherlands, so even if Cameroon wins, it won’t be clear if the Kelly-stake will increase or not. If necessary, I’ll check after game two.
In game four 538 thinks Chile has a 72% chance of victory. As such, at current market prices they’ll invest 16% of their bankroll, in the hopes of increasing said bankroll by 8%. Assuming the first two games go poorly, that would mean an investment of $16,676 to win $8,838.
Game 2: Cameroon, 1.83%: Risking $2,157 to win $6,255
Game 3: Netherlands, 4.54%: Risking $5,254 to win $25,219
Game 4: Chile, 12.73%: Risking $17,942 to win $8,933 (numbers modified due to the Netherlands victory, and line movement towards Chile. So far Nate’s line movement has been quite solid).
Nate’s current bankroll is $117,884.