I expected Brazil to have a bad day. I didn’t expect it to have THAT bad a day. I was at an airport bar waiting to board my flight when I saw the Germany score to take an early lead. They had the better of the play before the goal, which was due to a defensive breakdown. In fact, Brazil was rife with defensive breakdowns, which lead to this:

MC_Ger_Bra

That’s bad, but it underestimates Germany’s dominance in the box. That 3.1 assumes an average shot on goal from that position, but Germany was getting something better than that. They were getting open shots with time to aim and provide power. It was just a brutal day defensively for a Brazil squad without its field leaders.

That left Nate Silver with a bankroll of $529,437. He will be rooting for Argentina today:

Game 62: Argentina to advance, 0.42%: Risking $2,224 to win $1,690

Yesterday I thought Argentina should be a small favorite. After doing a bit more analysis I no longer feel that way. I expect an all UEFA final. I don’t think Argentina’s defense will hold up. I also don’t expect Messi to be able to save them this time. The one potential fly in the ointment is RVP’s health. I have no special insight there, but I expect him to play.

Alright, hopefully today have a better game than yesterday. Finally, one bit of advice for Arjen Robben:

Seth Burn

@sethburn on Twitter

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