Tim Howard, I salute you. (Nate Silver, Day 20
We tried. Belgium simply are a much better futbol team than us. How valuable was Tim Howard?
Michael has since double checked those numbers and came up with 4.4-2.8 in Belgium’s favor, but even so, Tim Howard was incredible. He kept us in the game and in range of a Wondo goal. Unfortunately, Wondo duffed it and Belgium moves on to face an Argentina squad that has kind of struggled:
Messi made a great run and pass to set up Angel di Maria for the winning goal, but it wasn’t easy. Frankly, if Belgium and Argentina play they way they did last round, Belgium will advance to the semis. In fact, with the exception of Costa Rica, every team left is a heavyweight with a real shot to win the World Cup.
Unfortunately, the lack of upsets has damaged Nate Silver’s bankroll, which has fallen to $721,501. He isn’t giving up though:
Game 57: France to advance, 7.96%: Risking $57,431 to win $74,586
Game 58: Brazil to advance, 8.36%: Risking $55,516 to win $25,235
Oddly, I disagree with both picks. I think Germany is the best team left in the tournament and should dispatch a French squad that, while dangerous, isn’t quite on Germany’s level. I think Brazil haven’t been much better than Colombia. They each have a clear star, and are somewhat ordinary beyond that.
My apologies, but due to the fact I am on vacation my posts will likely be a bit shorter, and I may have to presume Nate is using if-bets with a portion of his bankroll (IE: Some of his wager on France is an if-bet such that if France advances, the winnings and stake are reinvested on a bet on Brazil to advance. That means that amount is wagered on the price of Brazil advancing at the time of the bet, not at the time the bet wins, so if the market on the Brazil game moves during the France game, that will not be reflected in Nate’s wagers).
Alright, enjoy the quarterfinals of the best World Cup I’ve ever seen.
@sethburn on Twitter