Month: August 2015

After the sordid love affair that culminated in a strong title challenge in 2013/14, Liverpool barely cast a furtive glance at the Champions League places in 2014/15. Their underlying numbers over the whole season provided scant consolation either, with performance levels in line with a decent team lacking the quality usually associated with a top-four contender. Improvements in results and underlying performance will therefore be required to meet the club's stated aim of Champions League football. Progress before a fall Before looking forward to the coming season, let’s start with a look back at Liverpool’s performance over recent seasons. Below is a graphic showing Liverpool’s underlying numbers over the past five seasons, courtesy of Paul Riley’s Expected Goal numbers.

From 2010/11 to 2012/13, there was steady progress with an impressive jump in 2013/14 to the third highest rating over the past five years. Paul’s model only evaluates shots on target, so Liverpool’s 2013/14 rating is potentially biased a little high given their unusual/unsustainable proportion of shots on target that year. However, the quality was clear, particularly in attack. Not to be outdone, 2014/15 saw another impressive jump but unfortunately the trajectory was in the opposite direction. Other metrics such as total shots ratio and shots on target ratio tell a similar story, although 2013/14 isn’t quite as impressive. The less charitable among you may ascribe Liverpool’s trajectory with the presence and performance of one Luis Suárez; when joining in January 2010, Suárez was an erratic yet gifted performer who went on to become a genuine superstar before departing in the summer of 2014. Suárez’s attacking wizardry in 13/14 was remarkable and he served as a vital multiplier in the sides’ pinball style of play. Clearly he was a major loss but there were already reasons to suspect that some regression was due with or without him: Andrew Beasley wrote about the major and likely unsustainable role of set piece goals, while James Grayson and Colin Trainor highlighted the unusually favourable proportions of shots on target and blocked shots respectively during their title challenge. I wrote about how Liverpool’s penchant for early goals had led to an incredible amount of time spent winning over the season (a handy circumstance for a team so adept at counter-attacking), which may well have helped to explain some of their unusual numbers and that it was unlikely to be repeated. These mitigating and potentially unsustainable factors notwithstanding, the dramatic fall in underlying performance, points (22 in all) and goals scored (an incredible 49 goal decline) is where Liverpool find themselves ahead of the coming season. Such a decline sees Brendan Rodgers go into this season under pressure to justify FSG’s backing of him over the summer, particularly with a fairly nightmarish run of away fixtures to start the season and the spectre of Jürgen Klopp on the horizon. So, where do Liverpool need to improve this season? Case for the defence With the concession of six goals away at Stoke fresh in the memory, the narrative surrounding Liverpool’s defence is strong i.e. the defence is pretty horrible. Numbers paint a somewhat different story with Liverpool’s shots conceded (10.9 per game) standing as the joint-fifth lowest in the league last year according to statistics compiled by the Objective-Football website (rising to fourth lowest in open play). Shots on target were less good (3.8 per game and a rank of joint-seventh) although the margins are fairly small here. By Michael Caley’s and Paul Riley’s expected goal numbers, Liverpool ranked fourth and sixth respectively in expected goals against. Looking at how effective teams were at preventing their opponents from getting the ball into dangerous areas in open-play, my own numbers ranked Liverpool fifth best in the league. It should be noted that analytics often has something of a blind spot when it comes to analysing defensive performances; metrics which typically work very well on the offensive side often work less well on the defensive side. Liverpool also tend to be a fairly dominant team and their opponents typically favour a deep defence and counter strategy against them, which will limit the number of chances they create. One area where their numbers (courtesy of Objective-Football again) were noticeably poor was at set-pieces where they conceded on 11.6% of the shots by their opponents, which was 3^rd worst in the league, compared to a league average conversion of 8.7%. Set-piece conversion rates are notoriously unsustainable year-on-year though, so some regression towards more normal conversion rates could potentially bring down Liverpool’s goal per game average compared to last season. While Liverpool’s headline numbers were reasonable, their tendency to shoot themselves in the foot and concede some daft goals was impressive in its ineptitude at times. Culprits typically included combinations of Rodgers’ tactics, Dejan Lovren’s ‘whack a mole’ approach to defending and the embers of Steven Gerrard’s Liverpool career. The defensive structure of the team should be improved now that Gerrard no longer needs to be accommodated at the heart of midfield, while Glen Johnson’s prolonged audition for an extra role in the Walking Dead will continue at Stoke. Nathaniel Clyne should be a significant upgrade at full back, with youngsters Ilori and Gomez presently with the squad and aiming to compete for a first team role. Broadly speaking though, Liverpool’s defensive numbers were reasonable but with room for improvement. Their numbers looked ok for a Champions League hopeful rather than a title challenger. A more mobile midfield should enhance the protection afforded to the central defence, however it should line up. Whether the individual errors were a bug and not a feature of this Liverpool team will likely determine how the narrative around the defence continues this year. Under-powered attack Liverpool’s decline in underlying performance in 2014/15 was driven by a significant drop-off in their attacking numbers. The loss of Suárez was compounded by Daniel Sturridge playing just 750 minutes in the league all season; Sturridge isn’t at the same level as Suárez (few are) but he does represent a truly elite forward and the alternatives at the club weren’t able to replace him. The loss of Suárez and Sturridge meant that Coutinho and Sterling were now the principal conduits for Liverpool’s attack. Both performed admirably and were among the most dangerous attackers in the division. The figure below details Liverpool’s players according to the number of dangerous passes per 90 minutes played, which is related to my pass-danger rating score. In terms of volume, Coutinho and Sterling were way ahead of their teammates and both ranked in the top 15 in the league (minimum of 900 minutes played). James Milner actually ranked seventh by this metric, so he could well provide an additional source of creativity and link well with Liverpool’s forward players.

As good as Coutinho and Sterling were from a creative perspective, they did lag behind the truly elite players in the league by these metrics. As with many of Liverpool’s better players, you’re often left with the caveat of stating how good they are for their age. That’s not a criticism of the players themselves, merely a recognition of their overall standing relative to their peers. What didn’t help was the lack of attacking contribution from Liverpool’s peak-age attacking players; Lallana’s contribution was decidedly average, Sturridge is obviously capable of making a stellar contribution but injuries curtailed him, while Balotelli certainly provided a high shot volume powered by a predilection for shooting from range but a potential dose of bad luck meant his goal-scoring record was well below expectation. While there were clearly good elements to Liverpool’s attack, they were often left shooting from long range. According to numbers published by Michael Caley, Liverpool took more shots from outside the box than any other team last year and had the fourth highest proportion of shots from outside the box (48%). Unsurprisingly, they had the third lowest proportion of shots from the central region inside the penalty area (34%), which is the so-called ‘danger zone’ where shots are converted at much greater rates than wide in the box and outside the area. With their shot volumes being pretty good last season (third highest total shots and fourth highest shots on target), shifting the needle towards better quality chances would certainly improve Liverpool’s prospects. The question is where will that quality come from? Bobby & Ben With Sturridge not due back until the autumn coupled with his prior injury record, Liverpool moved to sign Christian Benteke as a frontline striker with youngsters Ings and Origi brought in to fill out the forward ranks. Roberto Firmino was added before Sterling’s departure but the expectation is that he will line-up in a similar role as the dynamic attacking midfielder/forward. Firmino brings some impressive statistical pedigree with him: elite dribbler, dangerous passer, a tidy shot profile for a non-striker and stand-out tackling numbers for his position. If he can replicate his Bundesliga form then he should be a more than adequate replacement for Sterling, while also having the scope to develop over coming seasons. Benteke brings a good but not great goal-scoring record, with his record in open-play being particularly average. Although there have been question marks regarding his stylistic fit within the team, Liverpool have seemingly been pursuing a physical forward to presumably act as a ‘reference point’ in their tactical system over the past few years; Diego Costa was a target in 2013, while Wilfred Bony was linked in 2014. Benteke brings that to the table alongside a more diverse range of skills than he is given credit for having been seemingly cast as an immobile lump of a centre forward by some. Whether he has the necessary quality to improve this Liverpool team is the more pertinent question. From open-play, Benteke averages 2.2 shots per 90 minutes and 0.34 goals per 90 minutes over the past three seasons, which is essentially the average rate for a forward in the top European leagues. For comparison, Daniel Sturridge averages 4.0 shots per 90 minutes and 0.65 goals per 90 minutes over the same period. Granted, Sturridge has played for far greater attacking units than Aston Villa over that period but based on some analysis of strikers moving clubs that I’ve done, there is little evidence that shot and goal rates rise when moving to a higher quality team. Benteke does provide a major threat from set-pieces, which has been a productive source of goals for him but I would prefer to view these as an added extra on top of genuine quality in open-play, rather than a fig leaf. Benteke will need to increase his contribution significantly if he is to cover for Sturridge over the coming season, otherwise Liverpool may find themselves in the good but not great attacking category again. Conclusion So where does all of the above leave Liverpool going into the season? Most of the underlying numbers for last season suggested that Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal were well ahead of the pack and I don’t see much prospect of one of them dropping out of the top four. Manchester United, Liverpool and Southampton made up the trailing group, with these three plus perhaps Tottenham in a battle to be the ‘best of the rest’ or ‘least crap’ and claim the coveted fourth place trophy. When framed this way, Liverpool’s prospects look more viable, although fourth place looks like the ceiling at present unless the club procure some adamantium to alleviate Sturridge’s injury woes. While Liverpool currently operate outside the financial Goldilocks zone usually associated with a title challenge, they should have the quality to mount a concerted challenge for that Champions League spot in what could be a tight race. They did put together some impressive numbers during the 3-4-3 phase of last season that was in-line with those expected of a Champions League contender; replicating and sustaining that level of quality should be the aim for the team this coming season. Prediction: 4-6^th, most likely 5^th. P.S. Can Liverpool to be more fun this year? If you can't be great, at least be fun.   ________________________ Find me on Twitter: @willtgm

Supporting Tottenham is a traditionally fraught experience. Each segment of hope is quickly countered by the emergence of a false dawn and the cusp of success is rarely breached. The fan-base is widely split along lines drawn either side of a line metaphorically populated by Daniel Levy. The man characterised with a trigger-happy firing finger, a man of fiscal prudence and a man more capable of extracting an inflated transfer fee from Major League Soccer for wobbly old players than most. The old “net spend” line is rarely approached, the squad rolls on inflated by whimsical purchases unwanted by coaching incumbents and miraculously, new stars emerge to replace those that went before. Only this summer, there has been a softening of internal conflict- Daniel Levy's collection of itinerant players has been streamlined and the unwanted big earners have been cast out. The squad construction now resembles something more akin to a successful Championship Manager 01/02 save and we see youth and potential married to the military work ethic installed by the deceptively cheery Major Mo Pochettino. This reforming of the club has been a long time coming. The Villas Boas era was a false start hampered by conflicting egos and the inevitable troubles involved in replacing Gareth Bale's contribution and it's only now, 18 months on that we find manufactured stability, a scenario unaccomplished since the club last penetrated the top four: 2012/13: New coach (Villas Boas), Modric sold 2013/14: Bale sold 2014/15: New coach (Pochettino) 2015/16: Stability? Transfers All positivity around transfers is in the “departure” section. Much like Guy Fawkes and his co-conspirators many centuries ago, early November 2014 was rumoured to have seen a failed coup. This plot involved less gunpowder and more complaining but a small group of senior pros led by team captain Younes Kaboul and vice-captain Emmanuel Adebayor were thought to have sent message to the boardroom regarding their dissatisfaction at the workload being thrust upon the team by Pochettino. Also thought party to the malingering were Lennon and Capoue and regardless of any truth in this fishwivery, they are all soon likely to end up residing elsewhere having barely featured. Stambouli, thought blameless amongst this but a mysteriously pointless signing last summer, has mercifully managed to infiltrate PSG's bench whilst the often criticised Paulinho has rocked up in China.  And poor, dear Roberto Soldado, a man afflicted by a malaise that dates back to at least Sergei Rebrov may well be returning to sunnier climes soon too. Each of these perceived miscreants and unwanteds has realised a fair fee and reinvestment has so far been entirely focused on the defense with Alderweireld looking the pick of a bunch that includes Trippier and Wimmer. Berahino or AN Other is hoped to be coming in, and will provide at least an option in the front line with Kane likely unable to play and complete 50+ games singlehandedly but there is a definite need to bring further reinforcements in.  A top line attacker hasn't been bought since Lamela and the forthcoming weeks are as key as ever.  To slightly whet the appetite, 19 year old former League One starlet Dele Alli has genuine potential to be this year's break-out talent but the squad is currently and predominantly a slightly strange mix of Belgians and youngsters. The Numbers The fifth place secured almost in lieu of Liverpool last May was a position that didn't just paper over the cracks, it allowed fans to confidently state that the cracks did not even exist. But as even a rudimentary study of the numbers shows, cracks in performance were plentiful and undermined any goodwill earned from the “best of the rest” positioning. First up we can go to the traditional shot ratios, a pretty solid method of benchmarking the team:

• Total Shot Ratio (TSR): 52%
• Shot on Target Ratio  (SoTR): 50%
• Enough to earn an 8th place ranking, or in more stark form, about the same as Stoke

Did it improve in the second half of the season as the team adapted to Pochettino's methods?

• Not really
• TSR: 52%
• SoTR: 51%
• (That's practically the same as Tim Sherwood posted at Villa)

Alright, we're not getting a positive storyline out of this, so how about Expected Goals? Let's turn to Michael Caley's numbers and see how things fare: Okay, a ~48% exG ratio and enough for a 9th place ranking. Can Paul Riley's Expected Goals model with a  slightly different methodology shine a light into what is becoming a dark pit? Haha! No, it cannot. Another ~48% exG ratio and 10th place BEHIND NEWCASTLE. If I try and run simple regressions to the points gained, the best I can suggest is that Tottenham overachieved by around eight points last season. This implies that a true talent level of the team in 2014-15 was around 56 points, or in the ballpark of 8th place in the league. Y'know, I'm a fan, none of this pleases me! “But we came fifth” I wrote an article late on in the season looking at simple location stuff for shots and what that revealed was also entirely grim. The rate of in box shots compared to the opposition positioned the team amongst the relegation candidates and the team ranked top of an out of box ratio measure. Echoes of Villas Boas? Sure thing, plenty of shooting from range but in contrast to Handsome Andre, the defensive end was terrible; they struggled to create shots inside the box and allowed them at an extremely high rate, all the while conceding as many goals as Sunderland and Burnley. The rigid 4-2-3-1 you find hallmarking each and every Pochettino side made it seem as if the key position to suffer within it was Ryan Mason's central midfield role, and I certainly felt he seemed underpowered in there but it's conceivable that it's just a tough spot in a demanding system.  I did a couple of things to try and represent the similarities between Pochettino's players in the rigid set-up we have seen since he arrived in the league.  Firstly I ran some correlations between the numerical outputs of Southampton's 2013-14 squad and Tottenham's 2014-15 squad.  Without any adjustments, the joint highest correlations I found were between Younes Kaboul and both Fonte and Lovren, which maybe explains to some degree how he found early favour from the coach, a decision that surprised many fans. The other joint highest correlation was between Schneiderlin and Mason.  Again, viewed this way, it starts to become slightly more understandable why maybe Mason was preferred and retained his place deep into the season; he's a good soldier, he follows orders and his output seems consistent with what Pochettino demands from his central midfielders. And I can throw Bentaleb and Wanyama into that mix, here, take a look: As a broad comparison, we see similarities, particularly again between Schneiderlin and Mason. So is Mason the problem? Well, we have yet to see moves from the club to suggest that might be the case. In fact having shipped out four players that could arguably play in his role (Stambouli, Paulinho, Capoue and Holtby) alongside replacing two who would often position behind him (Chiriches and Kaboul) with new signings (Alderweireld and Trippier) it is certainly arguable that the view from inside the club is very different. Linked to this potential weakspot in and around Mason, Dustin Ward's recent midfield study here on Stats Bomb shed further light onto a pretty dark subject matter when looking at Tottenham:

Two years ago, well before the transfer deadline, I thought Arsenal might finish 5^th. They bought Brother Mesut and came 4^th. Last season, again well before the transfer deadline, I thought Arsenal would be 4^th. They came 3^rd. This year… Numero de lo Habitual Shots Taken Rank: 2nd Shots Conceded Rank: 4th Shot Dif Rank: 2nd xGDif Rank: 3rd My worry from the 13-14 season was that Arsenal’s shot differential had been creeping down for a while. They still created superior chances, but their points output seemed a lucky compared to the underlying numbers. The big issue was that Shots For was now in Europa League range, which was slightly embarrassing for a perennial Champions League team. Enter Alexis Sanchez, Danny Welbeck, and an upgrade at right back, and the shot numbers improved. Not enough to overtake Manchester City, but better now than Liverpool, Chelsea, and United at the very least. Last season was progress. Everyone knows that Alexis was fantastic last season, but to casual observation Danny Welbeck was pretty bad. 4 measly goals is unimpressive for any Arsenal forward, and especially for one that reportedly cost £16m. (Though with Benteke going for twice that, Welbeck looks like a positive bargain nowadays.) However, dig below the surface and you see a different story. Welbeck was 9^th in the league in expected goals per 90 at nearly half a goal per game (players had to play at least 9 full 90s to qualify). Add in some quality passing in the final third, and you get one of the best all-around forwards in the Premier League. Who unfortunately performed more like Frazier Campbell. If I were running Arsenal, I’d keep the faith with Welbz. Tell the lad to buck up, keep doing what he’s doing, and the goals will eventually come. Then again, the numbers thought Balotelli was pretty damned good last season too, so what the hell do they know? Transfers In Petr Cech – GK – £10m It has been soooooooooooooo long since Arsenal had a reliable, competent goalkeeper between the posts. I suppose the era before Jens became Mad Jens is the last time I felt as a fan that the ball was in safe hands. For this reason, I am strangely excited about Cech. It doesn't make up for Cesc being in blue or for the Cashley for William Gallas swap, but viewed by itself, it's a great piece of business. While on the topic of goalkeepers, David Ospina was underrated and over-abused last year. Cech is an upgrade, but Arsenal also have a backup good enough to start for most of the clubs in the league*. *This was not a sarcastic evaluation. Transfers Out Absolutely no one important. (Yes, this includes Poldi-bear and Chezzer.) This truly is a different Arsenal era. Current Needs Coquelin is a rich man’s Flamini, while Flamini at this point in his career is a bum’s garbage fire. Therefore a defensive midfielder than can destroy, ping long passes, and stay healthy is a necessity. Preferably one with excellent pace, since counterattacks against Arsenal's center backs are a perennial Achilles heel. Unfortunately, this has been a clear need for the last 3-4 seasons, and I have no idea if Wenger will fill the role. I also thought they could use a player like Memphis Depay or Raheem Sterling to add depth at wide forward, and extreme pace on both sides of the pitch. Both players instead went to league rivals. However, at this point I am quibbling - the squad as a whole is the strongest it has been in ages. Can Arsenal win the league? I will answer a question with a question: Can they stay healthy? If yes – if Theo, and Sanchez, and Ramsey, and Arteta, and Ozil, and OX can all stay generally healthy – then Arsenal should definitely be in the mix for a title. Nearly every player on the squad is in their prime, the young guys look amazing, and Wenger’s tactical setup has transitioned from possession purist to surprisingly practical over the last couple of seasons. The other big question is Welbeck. If Welbeck produces goals like the numbers expect, a title is certainly possible for Arsenal this season. Or I guess if Theo plays through the center and scores like he did at the tail end of last season, you could expect the same. That said, I prefer Arsenal set up with Sanchez left, Welbeck central, Theo right and Mesut as a 10 for maximum threat and destruction. How often that setup will happen is anyone’s guess. Conclusion Normally, this is where I summarize how all the other top teams are expected to do and give you where I expect each team to finish. However, that’s James’s job now, so I will leave that to him. For me, the underlying numbers from last season, combined with transfers so far indicate the title could be a true 4-team race between last season’s CL finishers. I have not been optimistic about Arsenal in a long, long time. The following lines should be viewed in that light. I absolutely expect Arsenal to make the Champions League this season. With a little luck and some Shad Forsythe magic, I think we could see Wenger hoist his first league title since 2003-04. Predicted finish for Arsenal: 2nd     Bonus Section – Q&A with Knutson Who the hell are you? I’m Spartacus! Wait. That’s not right. The byline says Ted Knutson. We’ll go with that. For those who are recent fans of StatsBomb (recent here meaning in the last year), I co-founded the site and I still pay all the bills. Oh, and I am the designer of those silly radar charts you still see from time to time. Why don’t you write here any more? Because a year ago I got a spiffy job working in football. While I technically could continue writing about leagues our teams are not involved in, I decided it would be very difficult not to let my current work seep into what I write about. Oh, and we had another kid, so any and all free time went right out the window anyway. What do you actually do? That one is complicated. Since the restructuring in February, I’ve mostly been focused on player recruitment, as well as building statistical visualizations and metrics to help our teams better understand football. Prior to that was less work in recruitment and more stuff I can’t talk about. The quick answer that most people seem to understand is that I pretty much get to play Football Manager with real life. How did you get that job? People read my work on this here site here. They apparently liked it. We had lunch. They did not hate me. Then we had dinner. Despite spending hours of time with me, Matthew Benham hired me anyway. That was a year ago this week. Do you have previous experience in football? Nope. Just my work here on the site. My prior job experience was working for most of a decade at Pinnaclesports.com, where I did all sorts of stuff including acting as lead trader for the English Premier League. How do I get a job like yours? Write. A lot. Like, a metric fuckton amount.  (Check my StatsBomb archives for proof.) Constantly ask and examine new questions about football and data. Don’t be afraid to make mistakes, and don't let perfection be the enemy of progress. Also listen to criticism about your work and improve it. Understand that visualizations are really, really important to help your work be interesting to a broader audience, but also to help it be understood by everyone. To help with this, read the important books by Tufte, Few, and Alberto Cairo at least. That’s pretty much all I know how to do to get you noticed: think hard, work hard, write in public, and be positive and social interacting with people about your work. THEN, once you have a job, work harder. Why? There are probably quite a number of you who would love to have a job just like mine, right? And yet I would like to keep my job! Some of you are probably smarter than I am. Many of you probably know more about stats, or programming, or possibly football. I can’t control any of that. The only thing I can control is how hard I work to try and make everything successful. Be smarter. Work harder. Tragically boring career advice from someone on the inside. Do you really have such a big influence on transfer business? This came out of a quote on a Brentford forum, which in turn was an interpretation made from Michiel de Hoog’s piece on the new Brentford head coach Marinus Dijkhuizen. “If the enlightening Dutch article about Marinus (forget the magazine but Beesotted widely re tweeted it) is anything to go by, Ted Knutson has a very (and possibly overly) significant input on in-comings' and outgoings. MD even quoted alluding to such. “ So do I have overly significant input on transfer stuff? The short answer is: no. The long answer is: tons of people are involved and give feedback in the recruitment process. All of the input is taken, analysed, and then choices are made. My work is part of that. However, I am usually sitting at my desk and able to give quick answers, which is useful for busy head coaches and narrative devices. Why don’t you talk to the media? Or speak at conferences? Or use your Twitter account more than like twice a month? Because talking about what you actually do for work to try and give football teams an edge is a Bad Idea ™. Think of it this way – Billy Beane has been the General Manager of the Oakland A’s since 1998. That’s SEVENTEEN YEARS. If he found an edge early and never talked about it, it could potentially be valid the entire time. How long do I want to work in football? I don’t know, but seventeen years sounds like a good start. Maybe I’ll be on a panel at a conference next year. Or the year after. Or in a generation. What kind of stats do you use to scout players? The usual ones. Some unusual ones as well. And an awful lot of actually watching players play football. But hey, yeah, carry on with this assumption that the stats guys hate football and never watch games. Is Brentford going to be good this season? Man, I fucking hope so. I love the guys I work with, I love the job, and Matthew, Phil, and Rasmus are three of the best people I could imagine working for. I’d certainly like us to succeed so that all this hard work pays off and I can hopefully stick around for a while. That said, it’s football. There are no guarantees. I was lucky enough to get to hold the trophy in Midtjylland this June. Our Danish team has an amazing culture and is filled with good people and players. I’d like to have that chance many more times in my career, which means helping both clubs succeed as often as possible. Are Brentford going to sign any more players? Now that would be telling… What about Midtjylland? *cursing* *rude gestures* In your opinion what’s the best transfer signing in the Premier League this season? That one is easy. So easy, in fact, that I wrote about it last summer before I got hired. I like to work ahead. Finally… Why was Konstantin Kerschbaumer’s scouting nickname “Chris Palmer”? I mentioned this on Twitter about a month ago. Philipp Hofmann’s scouting nickname was Sturm Tank (which - AHEM BRENTFORD FANS - is far superior to The Hoff, but has thus far failed to catch on). I also mentioned KK’s scouting nickname, but it needed more than 140 characters to explain. Back when we were reviewing Kerschbaumer, I asked Ricardo Larrandart, Master of Agents [he has some official title I can’t remember] to get the agent information on Kerschbaumer, so that we could add it to the dossier. The next morning, I sat down at my desk and Ricky told me that he got what I needed for “Palmer.” “Who?” “Chris Palmer. The guy you told me to get information for.” *I think really hard. Nothing.* “Who???” “Chris. Palmer. You told me to get his agent info last night before you left.” *light goes on for me* “I asked for Kersch. Baumer. First name Konstantin.” *Ricky pauses* “Then who is Chris Palmer?” “… I do have to say, I am impressed at your ability to get agent info for guys I assume might be fictional players.” Fin

After what felt like a lifetime of Alex Ferguson's humourless and entrenched worldview and relentless successes, expressing positivity towards Man Utd had become a step too far for many otherwise fair minded fans. Poor David Moyes and his failure, so ably supported by a highly decorated and richly rewarded set of players reacting as if freed from oppressive tyranny, proxied the pent up desire of many to see them “knocked off their perch”. So to 2014-15, and to some a reasonably blank slate and the entrance of a man who has quickly become everybody's favourite continental uncle, Louis van Gaal. The English have long loved an eccentric and van Gaal was wise- or oblivious- enough to have absolutely no desire to blend in or moderate his methods or public persona. From tactical pamphlets to drunken violence upon Ryan Giggs we have seen the hand of a man comfortable in his own skin and content to do everything his way. Taking the helm at the World's Largest Club  was never going to faze him. Man Utd, a team renowned for speed, attacking flair and hunger, then proceeded to stumble into the transfer market like an inebriated jetlagged businessman handing over his credit card in a strip club. World class attackers like Di Maria showed a bit of leg, Falcao fluttered his eyelids and van Gaal ended up with an enviable array of gifted attackers to join established goal contributors such as Rooney, van Persie, Mata and Phil Jones. Surely, with this exciting blend, it was a lock that Utd would thrill once more? Franck Ribery: "I haven't had fun on the pitch once under van Gaal. I had had more than enough of it". Yeah, Franck knew. Styles and rates Prescriptive and restrictive team football are the order of the day when Uncle Louis beds in. Despite a cavalcade of injuries early on, superficially at least, Man Utd's league leading ability to prevent shots was impressive, but, and this was key, the shots that did get through were often potent, and the rate of shots on target to overall shots was notably high- 37%- enough to rank 5th worst from 120 club seasons in the Enlightened Era (2009-10 onwards). Here on Statsbomb, Dustin Ward noted that whilst Man Utd had a significant degree of midfield control via high pass volumes, they were vulnerable to longer passes that bypassed midfield and led to high quality shots converted at a high rate. Tottenham, another team that recorded high possession levels from a prescriptive tactical methodology, were similarly vulnerable. He also noted in a survey of the top five leagues in Europe: Manchester United play the highest share of midfield backwards passes of any team (...) and [this] indicates a lack of forward options, a lack of aggression, or a tactic obsessed with keeping the ball. To my mind, a freer desire to create shots has been replaced by somewhat sterile possession, control and a quest for certainty. The changes in shot contribution across the team between levels achieved under Moyes and those achieved during van Gaal's tenure make for less than positive reading: *I've focused on shot contribution rather than just shots as it gives a wider picture of player involvement. Split into the two inputs, both shot assists and shots are significantly more repeatable than their desired outputs, goals and assists, so they give us a well rounded view of total offensive contribution. Chief amongst the takeaways from this chart is that the players that raised or maintained their shot contributions from 2013-14 appear to be departing, have departed or are unwanted. Falcao now resides at Chelsea, having been widely deemed a failure, van Persie has landed in Turkey, rumours are strong regarding the availability of Fellaini, if not the ability of other clubs to pay his wages, Januzaj has seemed to yet find favour and Di Maria- the one player with a verifiable top class 2014-15 shot contribution- is hightailing it across the channel tout suite. The flip side to this is Rooney, parked bizarrely in midfield for parts of last season, yet now almost by default presumed to be the number one striker, is coming off the back of a pitiful contribution season when compared to former glories. He has played a lot of football over a now long career and this trend is becoming stronger by the year. The 2014-15 rate is under half his peak and although it's too early to suggest his game is terminally in decline, that time is unlikely to be too many years away. Now seems an odd time to reformat him again as a pure striker, and for all that he is an ever-capable footballer, the heights of 20-25 goal seasons may well be beyond him. This is not to denigrate his class: considering a stellar and hugely consistent career backed up by top class numbers he has often received more criticism than has been warranted and i'll be happy if proven wrong. Witness Mata and Herrera, goalscoring heroes as last season wore on, yet powered by hilariously unsustainable conversion rates- eight goals from 12 shots on target for Mata, six from seven for Herrera who each dropped their contribution by over a shot a game. Again significant volume. If we bat it up to team level it still looks largely unimpressive. van Gaal's team shot at a similar rate to Moyes' team (13.4 shots per game compared to 13.8), got a similar rate on target (~4.7 a-piece). Both seasons had shot ratios in the mid fifties, each converted all shots at around 12% whilst conceding at 10%. They scored a similar amount of goals: 64 for Moyes, 62 for van Gaal and by and large each team was significantly underpowered in comparison to the Ferguson era. The key to the door and the difference between backslapping at the awards dinner and a one way ticket to Spain was built by the rub of the green; van Gaal looks forward to the Champions League, another retooling of his squad and carries the aura of a new found love whilst Moyes remains a quickly discarded post-divorce notch on the bedpost. New Players None of this is to be unfair; the statistical malaise that now affects Man Utd has it's basis deep in the embers of Ferguson's era. As the chart shows, many of the key men from his teams remain, significantly past their best, and the vast outlay on new players has been a necessary rekindling. This summer seems less scatter-gun than before; Schweinsteiger, although aging and rarely free of injury, undoubtedly brings class and a knowledge of his coach's ways whilst Schneiderlin looks like the kind of signing Ferguson used to like: a league-adjusted star player from a lesser team. Most exciting though, especially from a statistical bent is analytics darling and shot monster Memphis Depay. A five shot a game outlier for the last two seasons in Holland, he rightly looks to have star potential and has been covered regularly on this site. Last season Ted Knutson highlighted him as a player most likely to break out into star level output going forward and whilst there is always a wonder about translating form shown in the Eredivisie across to a tougher league, he is a signing no fan should be disappointed with. It will certainly be interesting to see if van Gaal tempers the abandon with which Depay fires the ball goalward and represses his innate desires to act with freedom. The miniscule sample from the World Cup shows his shot rate at around three per 90 minutes and one suspects the higher degree of competition in the Premier League may find his shot rate fall somewhere between that and five. If he manages to mimic his Eredivisie rate, then Man Utd may have found a player to build a team around long term and there is a good deal of evidence to suggest he could become a genuine game-changer. For the reasons discussed earlier, defensive reinforcements might have seemed to be the greatest needs. With Vidic and Ferdinand still fresh in the memory, the likes of Smalling, Jones and Evans still seem a step behind and Rojo and Shaw have yet to show form associated with their hefty fees.  As yet, only the signing of Darmian, a full back, has contributed here.  In fact, the apparent desire to spend vast sums on attacking talents and to overstock with flair players whilst ignoring more pressing needs is highly reminiscent of a late 1990s Inter Milan squad. Those teams always had box-office appeal but never translated their singular talents into collective triumph and tangible glory currently looks a step too far for this Utd team. To the future Bookmakers peg them as 4th favourites for the title but i'm content to state that last season's top three are significantly ahead of where Man Utd are.  Betting on successful transfers to remedy ailments is an unreliable gamble and the deficit between what van Gaal has put together and title contention is huge. Alex Ferguson averaged nearly 83 points per season in the 18 seasons played over 38 games prior to his retirement, Moyes got 64 and Van Gaal 70. To expect a leap of ten, fifteen or even more points sufficient to compete for silverware based on the underlying statistics shown last season is beyond ambitious. Most likely, Man Utd's grasp on the important fourth position will come under attack from whomever out of Liverpool, Tottenham or Southampton skews most positively from their base abilities. That they should be favourites amongst that little grouping is fair but it will be interesting if the perception of van Gaal is as positive in 12 months time if progression has not been attained. The Champions League returns and with it greater expectation of success.  Even with an acceptance that Van Gaal should be able to fashion a more fruitful attack out of his many ingredients, it is still prudent to note that caution appears to be his prevailing outlook.  Utd will still retain lots of the ball and look to minimise the effectiveness of their opposition but it's hard to imagine that a team of such disparately acquired parts will either hit the ground running or not be vulnerable, certainly in comparison to their more stable rivals. "But this is football!" I hear from the back of the room, "Anything could happen..." In 2010-11, with the core of the team that carried them to two titles in three years, Man City posted 71 points and finished third, in a season underpowered by mediocre shot totals. In Mancini's second summer of spending, Nasri and Aguero arrived and City increased their points total by 18 and won the league in the most dramatic fashion.  So it's not unprecedented to launch from a less than spectacular season, it's just predicated on key transfers enhancing a side and hitting the ground running- for which there are no guarantees.  For Utd fans raised on trophies, that battle and the unconventional stroll of 2012-13 are now a distant recollection and should that memory become further shrouded in mist and a battle for fourth represent the height of achievement, Aloysius Paulus Maria van Gaal's tenure may not make it into it's expected third of three years. ______________   Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter: @jair1970 Find out what else is coming this week on Stats Bomb here