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June 29, 2018

Futures, futures, futures: How are Nate, Goldman, and Opta doing?

By Seth Burn

Let’s look at the good (Nate), the bad (Goldman), and the ugly (Opta). Starting with Nate, he did quite well on his group betting. To Advance:

Team Advance Y/N Risked To Win Result
Uruguay Eliminated 612 2600 -612
Russia Advance 1225 544 544
Egypt Eliminated 725 439 439
Saudi Arabia Advance 612 5200 -612
Spain Eliminated 187 1466 -187
Portugal Eliminated 933 2800 -933
Morocco Advance 334 976 -334
Iran Advance 317 1900 -317
France Eliminated 444 4000 -444
Denmark Pass 0 0 0
Peru Advance 114 168 -114
Australia Pass 0 0 0
Argentina Eliminated 679 3225 -679
Croatia Eliminated 44 80 -44
Iceland Advance 755 2499 -755
Nigeria Advance 200 500 -200
Brazil Eliminated 327 3772 0
Switzerland Advance 600 600 0
Serbia Eliminated 160 114 0
Costa Rica Pass 0 0 0
Germany Pass 0 0 0
Mexico Eliminated 570 543 -570
Sweden Advance 1296 1750 1750
Korea Republic Pass 0 0 0
Belgium Eliminated 126 933 -126
England Pass 0 0 0
Tunisia Pass 0 0 0
Panama Advance 279 2660 -279
Colombia Pass 0 0 0
Poland Eliminated 571 800 800
Senegal Eliminated 2410 1854 1854
Japan Advance 2020 5050 5050

Up 42.32%. Things weren’t as profitable on bets to win the group:

Team Win Group Y/N Risked To Win Result
Uruguay Not Win Group 1993 2432 -1993
Russia Win Group 1063 2285 -1063
Egypt Pass 0 0 0
Saudi Arabia Win Group 130 4604 -130
Spain Win Group 55 35 35
Portugal Not Win Group 60 24 24
Morocco Win Group 81 1040 -81
Iran Win Group 63 1800 -63
France Not Win Group 910 1856 -910
Denmark Win Group 471 2285 -471
Peru Win Group 358 2950 -358
Australia Pass 0 0 0
Argentina Not Win Group 1771 2480 2480
Croatia Win Group 402 976 976
Iceland Win Group 300 3850 -300
Nigeria Win Group 219 2520 -219
Brazil Not Win Group 822 2352 -822
Switzerland Win Group 629 4875 -629
Serbia Win Group 225 2036 -225
Costa Rica Not Win Group 598 20 20
Germany Not Win Group 691 1872 1872
Mexico Win Group 105 696 -105
Sweden Win Group 351 2600 2600
Korea Republic Pass 0 0 0
Belgium Not Win Group 690 800 -690
England Win Group 158 208 -158
Tunisia Pass 0 0 0
Panama Pass 0 0 0
Colombia Pass 0 0 0
Poland Not Win Group 1264 596 596
Senegal Not Win Group 900 150 150
Japan Win Group 820 6150 -820

Down 2.83%. Overall he’s up 39.49% on his futures betting. He’s also placed futures on quarterfinal, semifinal, finals, and championship results, which I’ll cover in a week or so.

Goldman Sachs took a bit of a beating:

Team Advance Y/N Risked To Win Result
Uruguay Eliminated 809 3438 -809
Russia Eliminated 5092 10948 -5092
Egypt Eliminated 1056 660 660
Saudi Arabia Advance 2903 24676 -2903
Spain Eliminated 1156 10543 -1156
Portugal Pass 0 0 0
Morocco Pass 0 0 0
Iran Advance 2463 14778 -2463
France Eliminated 956 8604 -956
Denmark Eliminated 278 320 -278
Peru Pass 0 0 0
Australia Advance 3864 17388 -3864
Argentina Eliminated 1151 5467 -1151
Croatia Eliminated 3342 6016 -3342
Iceland Advance 2918 9980 -2918
Nigeria Eliminated 3109 1026 1026
Brazil Eliminated 490 5645 0
Switzerland Pass 0 0 0
Serbia Pass 0 0 0
Costa Rica Advance 2153 8913 -2153
Germany Eliminated 1044 9281 9281
Mexico Eliminated 297 288 -297
Sweden Advance 583 787 787
Korea Republic Advance 223 997 -223
Belgium Eliminated 1091 8084 -1091
England Eliminated 1380 7176 -1380
Tunisia Advance 1799 8096 -1799
Panama Advance 443 4386 -443
Colombia Advance 839 336 336
Poland Advance 1621 977 -1621
Senegal Eliminated 4154 3147 3147
Japan Advance 928 2320 2320

They had a monster final day with Senegal going out. That allowed them to finish down -163.82%. In terms of championship futures potentially saving their bacon, Sweden is their lifeline:

Team Champ Risked To Win Result
Portugal Yes 558 13236 0
Belgium Yes 35 410 0
England Yes 238 4048 0
Colombia Yes 171 8294 0
Poland Yes 108 8646 0
Mexico Yes 126 16695 0
Denmark Yes 110 13475 0
Sweden Yes 91 22767 0
Iran Yes 61 32056 -61
Peru Yes 1 126 -1
Australia Yes 35 14011 -35
Iceland Yes 17 5143 -17
Costa Rica Yes 25 10063 -25
Tunisia Yes 36 26118 -36
Saudi Arabia Yes 26 18863 -26
Japan Yes 21 11036 0

Last time around they dropped 29.77% of their bankroll, but that was solely off of tournament championship bets. I’m not sure I had information on their expected advancement %’s in 2014. I suspect if I had, it would have been a bloodbath. Speaking of bloodbaths… poor Opta:

Team Advance Y/N Risked To Win Result
Uruguay Eliminated 2699 11472 -2699
Egypt Advance 1549 2168 -1549
Russia Eliminated 2480 4489 -2480
Saudi Arabia Advance 3685 31325 -3685
Spain Eliminated 1654 12932 -1654
Portugal Eliminated 2600 7800 -2600
Iran Advance 3140 18840 -3140
Morocco Advance 509 1486 -509
France Eliminated 1567 14100 -1567
Denmark Eliminated 2653 3050 -2653
Peru Advance 382 565 -382
Australia Advance 2757 10889 -2757
Argentina Eliminated 836 3972 -836
Croatia Eliminated 2969 5344 -2969
Iceland Advance 1992 6593 -1992
Nigeria Advance 1684 4210 -1684
Brazil Eliminated 1327 15290 -1327
Switzerland Eliminated 1616 1511 -1616
Serbia Pass 0 0 0
Costa Rica Advance 2107 8533 -2107
Germany Eliminated 1556 13835 13835
Mexico Eliminated 980 933 -980
Sweden Advance 252 340 340
Korea Republic Advance 2158 9494 -2158
Belgium Eliminated 2532 18762 -2532
England Eliminated 3473 16461 -3473
Tunisia Advance 2768 12042 -2768
Panama Advance 3272 31250 -3272
Colombia Eliminated 1893 3995 -1893
Poland Eliminated 1120 1568 1568
Senegal Advance 58 65 -58
Japan Advance 2384 5960 5960

A great finial day limited their losses to… 336.37% of their bankroll. Dear lord. A Japan tournament victory would render all of this to a mere bad dream:

Team Champ Y/N Risked To Win Result
Uruguay Pass 0 0 0
Egypt Champ 111 28028 -111
Russia Champ 12 689 0
Saudi Arabia Champ 116 84441 -116
Spain Not Champ 2302 301 0
Portugal Pass 0 0 0
Iran Champ 117 49640 -117
Morocco Champ 35 14208 -35
France Not Champ 496 58 0
Denmark Champ 51 6444 0
Peru Champ 72 8989 -72
Australia Champ 136 54466 -136
Argentina Champ 99 979 0
Croatia Pass 0 0 0
Iceland Champ 97 29454 -97
Nigeria Champ 111 28028 -111
Brazil Not Champ 2740 609 0
Switzerland Champ 76 10025 0
Serbia Champ 115 17309 0
Costa Rica Champ 85 34382 -85
Germany Not Champ 2296 370 370
Mexico Champ 106 14029 0
Sweden Champ 151 37918 0
Korea Republic Champ 94 58910 -94
Belgium Not Champ 2620 150 0
England Not Champ 3259 105 0
Tunisia Champ 76 55385 -76
Panama Champ 66 48115 -66
Colombia Champ 59 2870 0
Poland Champ 58 4650 -58
Senegal Champ 102 20900 -102
Japan Champ 201 105825 0

More realistically, if one of the favorites wins, they’ll finish down -370%. It appears their model overrates underdogs. Perhaps they can redeem themselves a bit on a game-by-game basis in the knockout round.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Article by Seth Burn