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Futures, futures, futures: How are Nate, Goldman, and Opta doing?

By Seth Burn | June 29, 2018 | Main

Let's look at the good (Nate), the bad (Goldman), and the ugly (Opta). Starting with Nate, he did quite well on his group betting. To Advance:

Team Advance Y/N Risked To Win Result
Uruguay Eliminated 612 2600 -612
Russia Advance 1225 544 544
Egypt Eliminated 725 439 439
Saudi Arabia Advance 612 5200 -612
Spain Eliminated 187 1466 -187
Portugal Eliminated 933 2800 -933
Morocco Advance 334 976 -334
Iran Advance 317 1900 -317
France Eliminated 444 4000 -444
Denmark Pass 0 0 0
Peru Advance 114 168 -114
Australia Pass 0 0 0
Argentina Eliminated 679 3225 -679
Croatia Eliminated 44 80 -44
Iceland Advance 755 2499 -755
Nigeria Advance 200 500 -200
Brazil Eliminated 327 3772 0
Switzerland Advance 600 600 0
Serbia Eliminated 160 114 0
Costa Rica Pass 0 0 0
Germany Pass 0 0 0
Mexico Eliminated 570 543 -570
Sweden Advance 1296 1750 1750
Korea Republic Pass 0 0 0
Belgium Eliminated 126 933 -126
England Pass 0 0 0
Tunisia Pass 0 0 0
Panama Advance 279 2660 -279
Colombia Pass 0 0 0
Poland Eliminated 571 800 800
Senegal Eliminated 2410 1854 1854
Japan Advance 2020 5050 5050

Up 42.32%. Things weren't as profitable on bets to win the group:

Team Win Group Y/N Risked To Win Result
Uruguay Not Win Group 1993 2432 -1993
Russia Win Group 1063 2285 -1063
Egypt Pass 0 0 0
Saudi Arabia Win Group 130 4604 -130
Spain Win Group 55 35 35
Portugal Not Win Group 60 24 24
Morocco Win Group 81 1040 -81
Iran Win Group 63 1800 -63
France Not Win Group 910 1856 -910
Denmark Win Group 471 2285 -471
Peru Win Group 358 2950 -358
Australia Pass 0 0 0
Argentina Not Win Group 1771 2480 2480
Croatia Win Group 402 976 976
Iceland Win Group 300 3850 -300
Nigeria Win Group 219 2520 -219
Brazil Not Win Group 822 2352 -822
Switzerland Win Group 629 4875 -629
Serbia Win Group 225 2036 -225
Costa Rica Not Win Group 598 20 20
Germany Not Win Group 691 1872 1872
Mexico Win Group 105 696 -105
Sweden Win Group 351 2600 2600
Korea Republic Pass 0 0 0
Belgium Not Win Group 690 800 -690
England Win Group 158 208 -158
Tunisia Pass 0 0 0
Panama Pass 0 0 0
Colombia Pass 0 0 0
Poland Not Win Group 1264 596 596
Senegal Not Win Group 900 150 150
Japan Win Group 820 6150 -820

Down 2.83%. Overall he's up 39.49% on his futures betting. He's also placed futures on quarterfinal, semifinal, finals, and championship results, which I'll cover in a week or so.

Goldman Sachs took a bit of a beating:

Team Advance Y/N Risked To Win Result
Uruguay Eliminated 809 3438 -809
Russia Eliminated 5092 10948 -5092
Egypt Eliminated 1056 660 660
Saudi Arabia Advance 2903 24676 -2903
Spain Eliminated 1156 10543 -1156
Portugal Pass 0 0 0
Morocco Pass 0 0 0
Iran Advance 2463 14778 -2463
France Eliminated 956 8604 -956
Denmark Eliminated 278 320 -278
Peru Pass 0 0 0
Australia Advance 3864 17388 -3864
Argentina Eliminated 1151 5467 -1151
Croatia Eliminated 3342 6016 -3342
Iceland Advance 2918 9980 -2918
Nigeria Eliminated 3109 1026 1026
Brazil Eliminated 490 5645 0
Switzerland Pass 0 0 0
Serbia Pass 0 0 0
Costa Rica Advance 2153 8913 -2153
Germany Eliminated 1044 9281 9281
Mexico Eliminated 297 288 -297
Sweden Advance 583 787 787
Korea Republic Advance 223 997 -223
Belgium Eliminated 1091 8084 -1091
England Eliminated 1380 7176 -1380
Tunisia Advance 1799 8096 -1799
Panama Advance 443 4386 -443
Colombia Advance 839 336 336
Poland Advance 1621 977 -1621
Senegal Eliminated 4154 3147 3147
Japan Advance 928 2320 2320

They had a monster final day with Senegal going out. That allowed them to finish down -163.82%. In terms of championship futures potentially saving their bacon, Sweden is their lifeline:

Team Champ Risked To Win Result
Portugal Yes 558 13236 0
Belgium Yes 35 410 0
England Yes 238 4048 0
Colombia Yes 171 8294 0
Poland Yes 108 8646 0
Mexico Yes 126 16695 0
Denmark Yes 110 13475 0
Sweden Yes 91 22767 0
Iran Yes 61 32056 -61
Peru Yes 1 126 -1
Australia Yes 35 14011 -35
Iceland Yes 17 5143 -17
Costa Rica Yes 25 10063 -25
Tunisia Yes 36 26118 -36
Saudi Arabia Yes 26 18863 -26
Japan Yes 21 11036 0

Last time around they dropped 29.77% of their bankroll, but that was solely off of tournament championship bets. I'm not sure I had information on their expected advancement %'s in 2014. I suspect if I had, it would have been a bloodbath. Speaking of bloodbaths... poor Opta:

Team Advance Y/N Risked To Win Result
Uruguay Eliminated 2699 11472 -2699
Egypt Advance 1549 2168 -1549
Russia Eliminated 2480 4489 -2480
Saudi Arabia Advance 3685 31325 -3685
Spain Eliminated 1654 12932 -1654
Portugal Eliminated 2600 7800 -2600
Iran Advance 3140 18840 -3140
Morocco Advance 509 1486 -509
France Eliminated 1567 14100 -1567
Denmark Eliminated 2653 3050 -2653
Peru Advance 382 565 -382
Australia Advance 2757 10889 -2757
Argentina Eliminated 836 3972 -836
Croatia Eliminated 2969 5344 -2969
Iceland Advance 1992 6593 -1992
Nigeria Advance 1684 4210 -1684
Brazil Eliminated 1327 15290 -1327
Switzerland Eliminated 1616 1511 -1616
Serbia Pass 0 0 0
Costa Rica Advance 2107 8533 -2107
Germany Eliminated 1556 13835 13835
Mexico Eliminated 980 933 -980
Sweden Advance 252 340 340
Korea Republic Advance 2158 9494 -2158
Belgium Eliminated 2532 18762 -2532
England Eliminated 3473 16461 -3473
Tunisia Advance 2768 12042 -2768
Panama Advance 3272 31250 -3272
Colombia Eliminated 1893 3995 -1893
Poland Eliminated 1120 1568 1568
Senegal Advance 58 65 -58
Japan Advance 2384 5960 5960

A great finial day limited their losses to... 336.37% of their bankroll. Dear lord. A Japan tournament victory would render all of this to a mere bad dream:

Team Champ Y/N Risked To Win Result
Uruguay Pass 0 0 0
Egypt Champ 111 28028 -111
Russia Champ 12 689 0
Saudi Arabia Champ 116 84441 -116
Spain Not Champ 2302 301 0
Portugal Pass 0 0 0
Iran Champ 117 49640 -117
Morocco Champ 35 14208 -35
France Not Champ 496 58 0
Denmark Champ 51 6444 0
Peru Champ 72 8989 -72
Australia Champ 136 54466 -136
Argentina Champ 99 979 0
Croatia Pass 0 0 0
Iceland Champ 97 29454 -97
Nigeria Champ 111 28028 -111
Brazil Not Champ 2740 609 0
Switzerland Champ 76 10025 0
Serbia Champ 115 17309 0
Costa Rica Champ 85 34382 -85
Germany Not Champ 2296 370 370
Mexico Champ 106 14029 0
Sweden Champ 151 37918 0
Korea Republic Champ 94 58910 -94
Belgium Not Champ 2620 150 0
England Not Champ 3259 105 0
Tunisia Champ 76 55385 -76
Panama Champ 66 48115 -66
Colombia Champ 59 2870 0
Poland Champ 58 4650 -58
Senegal Champ 102 20900 -102
Japan Champ 201 105825 0

More realistically, if one of the favorites wins, they'll finish down -370%. It appears their model overrates underdogs. Perhaps they can redeem themselves a bit on a game-by-game basis in the knockout round.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Article by Seth Burn