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  • June 29, 2018

    Futures, futures, futures: How are Nate, Goldman, and Opta doing?

    By Seth Burn
  • Let’s look at the good (Nate), the bad (Goldman), and the ugly (Opta). Starting with Nate, he did quite well on his group betting. To Advance:

    Team Advance Y/N Risked To Win Result
    Uruguay Eliminated 612 2600 -612
    Russia Advance 1225 544 544
    Egypt Eliminated 725 439 439
    Saudi Arabia Advance 612 5200 -612
    Spain Eliminated 187 1466 -187
    Portugal Eliminated 933 2800 -933
    Morocco Advance 334 976 -334
    Iran Advance 317 1900 -317
    France Eliminated 444 4000 -444
    Denmark Pass 0 0 0
    Peru Advance 114 168 -114
    Australia Pass 0 0 0
    Argentina Eliminated 679 3225 -679
    Croatia Eliminated 44 80 -44
    Iceland Advance 755 2499 -755
    Nigeria Advance 200 500 -200
    Brazil Eliminated 327 3772 0
    Switzerland Advance 600 600 0
    Serbia Eliminated 160 114 0
    Costa Rica Pass 0 0 0
    Germany Pass 0 0 0
    Mexico Eliminated 570 543 -570
    Sweden Advance 1296 1750 1750
    Korea Republic Pass 0 0 0
    Belgium Eliminated 126 933 -126
    England Pass 0 0 0
    Tunisia Pass 0 0 0
    Panama Advance 279 2660 -279
    Colombia Pass 0 0 0
    Poland Eliminated 571 800 800
    Senegal Eliminated 2410 1854 1854
    Japan Advance 2020 5050 5050

    Up 42.32%. Things weren’t as profitable on bets to win the group:

    Team Win Group Y/N Risked To Win Result
    Uruguay Not Win Group 1993 2432 -1993
    Russia Win Group 1063 2285 -1063
    Egypt Pass 0 0 0
    Saudi Arabia Win Group 130 4604 -130
    Spain Win Group 55 35 35
    Portugal Not Win Group 60 24 24
    Morocco Win Group 81 1040 -81
    Iran Win Group 63 1800 -63
    France Not Win Group 910 1856 -910
    Denmark Win Group 471 2285 -471
    Peru Win Group 358 2950 -358
    Australia Pass 0 0 0
    Argentina Not Win Group 1771 2480 2480
    Croatia Win Group 402 976 976
    Iceland Win Group 300 3850 -300
    Nigeria Win Group 219 2520 -219
    Brazil Not Win Group 822 2352 -822
    Switzerland Win Group 629 4875 -629
    Serbia Win Group 225 2036 -225
    Costa Rica Not Win Group 598 20 20
    Germany Not Win Group 691 1872 1872
    Mexico Win Group 105 696 -105
    Sweden Win Group 351 2600 2600
    Korea Republic Pass 0 0 0
    Belgium Not Win Group 690 800 -690
    England Win Group 158 208 -158
    Tunisia Pass 0 0 0
    Panama Pass 0 0 0
    Colombia Pass 0 0 0
    Poland Not Win Group 1264 596 596
    Senegal Not Win Group 900 150 150
    Japan Win Group 820 6150 -820

    Down 2.83%. Overall he’s up 39.49% on his futures betting. He’s also placed futures on quarterfinal, semifinal, finals, and championship results, which I’ll cover in a week or so.

    Goldman Sachs took a bit of a beating:

    Team Advance Y/N Risked To Win Result
    Uruguay Eliminated 809 3438 -809
    Russia Eliminated 5092 10948 -5092
    Egypt Eliminated 1056 660 660
    Saudi Arabia Advance 2903 24676 -2903
    Spain Eliminated 1156 10543 -1156
    Portugal Pass 0 0 0
    Morocco Pass 0 0 0
    Iran Advance 2463 14778 -2463
    France Eliminated 956 8604 -956
    Denmark Eliminated 278 320 -278
    Peru Pass 0 0 0
    Australia Advance 3864 17388 -3864
    Argentina Eliminated 1151 5467 -1151
    Croatia Eliminated 3342 6016 -3342
    Iceland Advance 2918 9980 -2918
    Nigeria Eliminated 3109 1026 1026
    Brazil Eliminated 490 5645 0
    Switzerland Pass 0 0 0
    Serbia Pass 0 0 0
    Costa Rica Advance 2153 8913 -2153
    Germany Eliminated 1044 9281 9281
    Mexico Eliminated 297 288 -297
    Sweden Advance 583 787 787
    Korea Republic Advance 223 997 -223
    Belgium Eliminated 1091 8084 -1091
    England Eliminated 1380 7176 -1380
    Tunisia Advance 1799 8096 -1799
    Panama Advance 443 4386 -443
    Colombia Advance 839 336 336
    Poland Advance 1621 977 -1621
    Senegal Eliminated 4154 3147 3147
    Japan Advance 928 2320 2320

    They had a monster final day with Senegal going out. That allowed them to finish down -163.82%. In terms of championship futures potentially saving their bacon, Sweden is their lifeline:

    Team Champ Risked To Win Result
    Portugal Yes 558 13236 0
    Belgium Yes 35 410 0
    England Yes 238 4048 0
    Colombia Yes 171 8294 0
    Poland Yes 108 8646 0
    Mexico Yes 126 16695 0
    Denmark Yes 110 13475 0
    Sweden Yes 91 22767 0
    Iran Yes 61 32056 -61
    Peru Yes 1 126 -1
    Australia Yes 35 14011 -35
    Iceland Yes 17 5143 -17
    Costa Rica Yes 25 10063 -25
    Tunisia Yes 36 26118 -36
    Saudi Arabia Yes 26 18863 -26
    Japan Yes 21 11036 0

    Last time around they dropped 29.77% of their bankroll, but that was solely off of tournament championship bets. I’m not sure I had information on their expected advancement %’s in 2014. I suspect if I had, it would have been a bloodbath. Speaking of bloodbaths… poor Opta:

    Team Advance Y/N Risked To Win Result
    Uruguay Eliminated 2699 11472 -2699
    Egypt Advance 1549 2168 -1549
    Russia Eliminated 2480 4489 -2480
    Saudi Arabia Advance 3685 31325 -3685
    Spain Eliminated 1654 12932 -1654
    Portugal Eliminated 2600 7800 -2600
    Iran Advance 3140 18840 -3140
    Morocco Advance 509 1486 -509
    France Eliminated 1567 14100 -1567
    Denmark Eliminated 2653 3050 -2653
    Peru Advance 382 565 -382
    Australia Advance 2757 10889 -2757
    Argentina Eliminated 836 3972 -836
    Croatia Eliminated 2969 5344 -2969
    Iceland Advance 1992 6593 -1992
    Nigeria Advance 1684 4210 -1684
    Brazil Eliminated 1327 15290 -1327
    Switzerland Eliminated 1616 1511 -1616
    Serbia Pass 0 0 0
    Costa Rica Advance 2107 8533 -2107
    Germany Eliminated 1556 13835 13835
    Mexico Eliminated 980 933 -980
    Sweden Advance 252 340 340
    Korea Republic Advance 2158 9494 -2158
    Belgium Eliminated 2532 18762 -2532
    England Eliminated 3473 16461 -3473
    Tunisia Advance 2768 12042 -2768
    Panama Advance 3272 31250 -3272
    Colombia Eliminated 1893 3995 -1893
    Poland Eliminated 1120 1568 1568
    Senegal Advance 58 65 -58
    Japan Advance 2384 5960 5960

    A great finial day limited their losses to… 336.37% of their bankroll. Dear lord. A Japan tournament victory would render all of this to a mere bad dream:

    Team Champ Y/N Risked To Win Result
    Uruguay Pass 0 0 0
    Egypt Champ 111 28028 -111
    Russia Champ 12 689 0
    Saudi Arabia Champ 116 84441 -116
    Spain Not Champ 2302 301 0
    Portugal Pass 0 0 0
    Iran Champ 117 49640 -117
    Morocco Champ 35 14208 -35
    France Not Champ 496 58 0
    Denmark Champ 51 6444 0
    Peru Champ 72 8989 -72
    Australia Champ 136 54466 -136
    Argentina Champ 99 979 0
    Croatia Pass 0 0 0
    Iceland Champ 97 29454 -97
    Nigeria Champ 111 28028 -111
    Brazil Not Champ 2740 609 0
    Switzerland Champ 76 10025 0
    Serbia Champ 115 17309 0
    Costa Rica Champ 85 34382 -85
    Germany Not Champ 2296 370 370
    Mexico Champ 106 14029 0
    Sweden Champ 151 37918 0
    Korea Republic Champ 94 58910 -94
    Belgium Not Champ 2620 150 0
    England Not Champ 3259 105 0
    Tunisia Champ 76 55385 -76
    Panama Champ 66 48115 -66
    Colombia Champ 59 2870 0
    Poland Champ 58 4650 -58
    Senegal Champ 102 20900 -102
    Japan Champ 201 105825 0

    More realistically, if one of the favorites wins, they’ll finish down -370%. It appears their model overrates underdogs. Perhaps they can redeem themselves a bit on a game-by-game basis in the knockout round.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Article by Seth Burn