Howdy! After a four-year break, I'm returning to Statsbomb to track some of the notable predictions from luminaries such as Opta, Goldman Sachs, and a player to be named later. Four years ago Goldman did... poorly:
They dropped 29.77% of their bankroll. Oops! This time around I've cut their bankroll to $10,000 (with an open credit line), because losing large sums of money should be punished. (I'll excuse the snorts of laughter from those of you who know how it really works).
The methodology here is the Kelly Criterion. Quite simply, these are the bets you would make to maximize your bankroll growth if you believed the numbers you published.
Our good friends at Goldman Sachs have returned with more futbol proclamations. Some notable points:
Team | Advance Y/N | Risked | To Win | Result |
Uruguay | Eliminated | 809 | 3438 | 0 |
Russia | Eliminated | 5092 | 10948 | 0 |
Egypt | Eliminated | 1056 | 660 | 0 |
Saudi Arabia | Advance | 2903 | 24676 | 0 |
Spain | Eliminated | 1156 | 10543 | 0 |
Portugal | Pass | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Morocco | Pass | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Iran | Advance | 2463 | 14778 | 0 |
France | Eliminated | 956 | 8604 | 0 |
Denmark | Eliminated | 278 | 320 | 0 |
Peru | Pass | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Australia | Advance | 3864 | 17388 | 0 |
Argentina | Eliminated | 1151 | 5467 | 0 |
Croatia | Eliminated | 3342 | 6016 | 0 |
Iceland | Advance | 2918 | 9980 | 0 |
Nigeria | Eliminated | 3109 | 1026 | 0 |
Brazil | Eliminated | 490 | 5645 | 0 |
Switzerland | Pass | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Serbia | Pass | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Costa Rica | Advance | 2153 | 8913 | 0 |
Germany | Eliminated | 1044 | 9281 | 0 |
Mexico | Eliminated | 297 | 288 | 0 |
Sweden | Advance | 583 | 787 | 0 |
Korea Republic | Advance | 223 | 997 | 0 |
Belgium | Eliminated | 1091 | 8084 | 0 |
England | Eliminated | 1380 | 7176 | 0 |
Tunisia | Advance | 1799 | 8096 | 0 |
Panama | Advance | 443 | 4386 | 0 |
Colombia | Advance | 839 | 336 | 0 |
Poland | Advance | 1621 | 977 | 0 |
Senegal | Eliminated | 4154 | 3147 | 0 |
Japan | Advance | 928 | 2320 | 0 |
As for their championship futures:
Team | Champ | Risked | To Win | Result |
Portugal | Yes | 558 | 13236 | 0 |
Belgium | Yes | 35 | 410 | 0 |
England | Yes | 238 | 4048 | 0 |
Colombia | Yes | 171 | 8294 | 0 |
Poland | Yes | 108 | 8646 | 0 |
Mexico | Yes | 126 | 16695 | 0 |
Denmark | Yes | 110 | 13475 | 0 |
Sweden | Yes | 91 | 22767 | 0 |
Iran | Yes | 61 | 32056 | 0 |
Peru | Yes | 1 | 126 | 0 |
Australia | Yes | 35 | 14011 | 0 |
Iceland | Yes | 17 | 5143 | 0 |
Costa Rica | Yes | 25 | 10063 | 0 |
Tunisia | Yes | 36 | 26118 | 0 |
Saudi Arabia | Yes | 26 | 18863 | 0 |
Japan | Yes | 21 | 11036 | 0 |
Best of luck to our friendly Vampire Squid.
(Header Photo Courtesy of the Press Association)