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June 13, 2018

Hear Ye, Hear Ye, the Squid Hath Returned!

By Seth Burn

Howdy! After a four-year break, I’m returning to Statsbomb to track some of the notable predictions from luminaries such as Opta, Goldman Sachs, and a player to be named later. Four years ago Goldman did… poorly:

Goldman Sachs and the World Cup

They dropped 29.77% of their bankroll. Oops! This time around I’ve cut their bankroll to $10,000 (with an open credit line), because losing large sums of money should be punished. (I’ll excuse the snorts of laughter from those of you who know how it really works).

The methodology here is the Kelly Criterion. Quite simply, these are the bets you would make to maximize your bankroll growth if you believed the numbers you published.

Our good friends at Goldman Sachs have returned with more futbol proclamations. Some notable points:

  1. It’s unclear that they are aware of where the World Cup is taking place. I’m as shocked as they are that Russia will be hosting, but let’s take that into account with our projections, eh? They have Saudi Arabia as more likely to advance then Russia despite Russia being more than a goal favorite head-to-head.
  2. Betting on Spain, Argentina, France, Brazil, and Germany to be eliminated in the Group stage suggests they don’t quite have a handle on just how good the elite teams are.
  3. Betting on England to not get out of the group stage is just good sense.
  4. I’m personally rooting for Japan, so let’s hope Goldman wins that one
Team Advance Y/N Risked To Win Result
Uruguay Eliminated 809 3438 0
Russia Eliminated 5092 10948 0
Egypt Eliminated 1056 660 0
Saudi Arabia Advance 2903 24676 0
Spain Eliminated 1156 10543 0
Portugal Pass 0 0 0
Morocco Pass 0 0 0
Iran Advance 2463 14778 0
France Eliminated 956 8604 0
Denmark Eliminated 278 320 0
Peru Pass 0 0 0
Australia Advance 3864 17388 0
Argentina Eliminated 1151 5467 0
Croatia Eliminated 3342 6016 0
Iceland Advance 2918 9980 0
Nigeria Eliminated 3109 1026 0
Brazil Eliminated 490 5645 0
Switzerland Pass 0 0 0
Serbia Pass 0 0 0
Costa Rica Advance 2153 8913 0
Germany Eliminated 1044 9281 0
Mexico Eliminated 297 288 0
Sweden Advance 583 787 0
Korea Republic Advance 223 997 0
Belgium Eliminated 1091 8084 0
England Eliminated 1380 7176 0
Tunisia Advance 1799 8096 0
Panama Advance 443 4386 0
Colombia Advance 839 336 0
Poland Advance 1621 977 0
Senegal Eliminated 4154 3147 0
Japan Advance 928 2320 0

As for their championship futures:

Team Champ Risked To Win Result
Portugal Yes 558 13236 0
Belgium Yes 35 410 0
England Yes 238 4048 0
Colombia Yes 171 8294 0
Poland Yes 108 8646 0
Mexico Yes 126 16695 0
Denmark Yes 110 13475 0
Sweden Yes 91 22767 0
Iran Yes 61 32056 0
Peru Yes 1 126 0
Australia Yes 35 14011 0
Iceland Yes 17 5143 0
Costa Rica Yes 25 10063 0
Tunisia Yes 36 26118 0
Saudi Arabia Yes 26 18863 0
Japan Yes 21 11036 0

Best of luck to our friendly Vampire Squid.

 

(Header Photo Courtesy of the Press Association)

Article by Seth Burn