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June 27, 2018

Nate Silver Day 14: Never going to lose faith in Costa Rica

By Seth Burn

More than any other team, Los Ticos helped build Nate’s bankroll. Nate has remained loyal to them, although it might prove to be fruitless this time around. Sweden is the big, potentially realistic, play of the day. Mexico were so close to qualifying, but now need to muster at least a draw to be assured of advancing. As for Serbia or South Korea, a draw would be an impressive result.

Nate dealt with some enormous swings yesterday, looking like he was going to finish at $614,505 at one point. Goals from Nigeria and Croatia put him in position to finish at $1,665,976. Then things swung back against him before a late Croatia goal led him to finish the day at $1,199,022. The swings are steep when you sail the full-Kelly seas.

Bankroll % Team Wager Risked To Win Result
1.01% Germany-South Korea Draw 16888 115346 0
6.48% Sweden -0.5 107912 242802 0
2.83% Costa Rica -0.5 47111 299156 0
0.85% Serbia-Brazil Draw 14232 50239 0

 

Article by Seth Burn