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  • June 15, 2018

    Opta: Fear? That's the other guy's problem + Nate Silver Day 2

    By Seth Burn
  • Opta has some fairly strong opinions on the World Cup and they are either going to get rich or die trying. Much respect! ($10,000 bankroll with unlimited credit). However, we’ll get to those in a second. Nate Silver is back for day two of the World Cup:

    Team Wager Risked To Win Result
    Saudi Arabia -0.5 7694 63555 -7694
    Uruguay-Egypt Draw 18369 53452 0
    Egypt -0.5 30141 195315 0
    Morocco-Iran Draw 2682 5526 0
    Iran -0.5 8821 25317 0
    Portugal -0.5 9631 31011 0

    Saudi Arabia was a bit of a let-down (5-0!), but things get more exciting today. Egypt could deliver a great day with a win, but a draw there would be just fine. Portugal upsetting Spain in the first elite matchup of the tournament would be nice too. Now, back to Opta, who have some thoughts:

    Team Advance Y/N Risked To Win Result
    Uruguay Eliminated 2699 11472 0
    Egypt Advance 1549 2168 0
    Russia Eliminated 2480 4489 0
    Saudi Arabia Advance 3685 31325 0
    Spain Eliminated 1654 12932 0
    Portugal Eliminated 2600 7800 0
    Iran Advance 3140 18840 0
    Morocco Advance 509 1486 0
    France Eliminated 1567 14100 0
    Denmark Eliminated 2653 3050 0
    Peru Advance 382 565 0
    Australia Advance 2757 10889 0
    Argentina Eliminated 836 3972 0
    Croatia Eliminated 2969 5344 0
    Iceland Advance 1992 6593 0
    Nigeria Advance 1684 4210 0
    Brazil Eliminated 1327 15290 0
    Switzerland Eliminated 1616 1511 0
    Serbia Pass 0 0 0
    Costa Rica Advance 2107 8533 0
    Germany Eliminated 1556 13835 0
    Mexico Eliminated 980 933 0
    Sweden Advance 252 340 0
    Korea Republic Advance 2158 9494 0
    Belgium Eliminated 2532 18762 0
    England Eliminated 3473 16461 0
    Tunisia Advance 2768 12042 0
    Panama Advance 3272 31250 0
    Colombia Eliminated 1893 3995 0
    Poland Eliminated 1120 1568 0
    Senegal Advance 58 65 0
    Japan Advance 2384 5960 0

    Their point of view is that every team has a chance, which means the longshots may yet be crowned king:

    Team Champ Y/N Risked To Win Result
    Uruguay Pass 0 0 0
    Egypt Champ 111 28028 0
    Russia Champ 12 689 0
    Saudi Arabia Champ 116 84441 0
    Spain Not Champ 2302 301 0
    Portugal Pass 0 0 0
    Iran Champ 117 49640 0
    Morocco Champ 35 14208 0
    France Not Champ 496 58 0
    Denmark Champ 51 6444 0
    Peru Champ 72 8989 0
    Australia Champ 136 54466 0
    Argentina Champ 99 979 0
    Croatia Pass 0 0 0
    Iceland Champ 97 29454 0
    Nigeria Champ 111 28028 0
    Brazil Not Champ 2740 609 0
    Switzerland Champ 76 10025 0
    Serbia Champ 115 17309 0
    Costa Rica Champ 85 34382 0
    Germany Not Champ 2296 370 0
    Mexico Champ 106 14029 0
    Sweden Champ 151 37918 0
    Korea Republic Champ 94 58910 0
    Belgium Not Champ 2620 150 0
    England Not Champ 3259 105 0
    Tunisia Champ 76 55385 0
    Panama Champ 66 48115 0
    Colombia Champ 59 2870 0
    Poland Champ 58 4650 0
    Senegal Champ 102 20900 0
    Japan Champ 201 105825 0

    Best of luck to OptaJoe and the rest of the crew over there.

     

    Article by Seth Burn