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June 15, 2018

Opta: Fear? That's the other guy's problem + Nate Silver Day 2

By Seth Burn

Opta has some fairly strong opinions on the World Cup and they are either going to get rich or die trying. Much respect! ($10,000 bankroll with unlimited credit). However, we’ll get to those in a second. Nate Silver is back for day two of the World Cup:

Team Wager Risked To Win Result
Saudi Arabia -0.5 7694 63555 -7694
Uruguay-Egypt Draw 18369 53452 0
Egypt -0.5 30141 195315 0
Morocco-Iran Draw 2682 5526 0
Iran -0.5 8821 25317 0
Portugal -0.5 9631 31011 0

Saudi Arabia was a bit of a let-down (5-0!), but things get more exciting today. Egypt could deliver a great day with a win, but a draw there would be just fine. Portugal upsetting Spain in the first elite matchup of the tournament would be nice too. Now, back to Opta, who have some thoughts:

Team Advance Y/N Risked To Win Result
Uruguay Eliminated 2699 11472 0
Egypt Advance 1549 2168 0
Russia Eliminated 2480 4489 0
Saudi Arabia Advance 3685 31325 0
Spain Eliminated 1654 12932 0
Portugal Eliminated 2600 7800 0
Iran Advance 3140 18840 0
Morocco Advance 509 1486 0
France Eliminated 1567 14100 0
Denmark Eliminated 2653 3050 0
Peru Advance 382 565 0
Australia Advance 2757 10889 0
Argentina Eliminated 836 3972 0
Croatia Eliminated 2969 5344 0
Iceland Advance 1992 6593 0
Nigeria Advance 1684 4210 0
Brazil Eliminated 1327 15290 0
Switzerland Eliminated 1616 1511 0
Serbia Pass 0 0 0
Costa Rica Advance 2107 8533 0
Germany Eliminated 1556 13835 0
Mexico Eliminated 980 933 0
Sweden Advance 252 340 0
Korea Republic Advance 2158 9494 0
Belgium Eliminated 2532 18762 0
England Eliminated 3473 16461 0
Tunisia Advance 2768 12042 0
Panama Advance 3272 31250 0
Colombia Eliminated 1893 3995 0
Poland Eliminated 1120 1568 0
Senegal Advance 58 65 0
Japan Advance 2384 5960 0

Their point of view is that every team has a chance, which means the longshots may yet be crowned king:

Team Champ Y/N Risked To Win Result
Uruguay Pass 0 0 0
Egypt Champ 111 28028 0
Russia Champ 12 689 0
Saudi Arabia Champ 116 84441 0
Spain Not Champ 2302 301 0
Portugal Pass 0 0 0
Iran Champ 117 49640 0
Morocco Champ 35 14208 0
France Not Champ 496 58 0
Denmark Champ 51 6444 0
Peru Champ 72 8989 0
Australia Champ 136 54466 0
Argentina Champ 99 979 0
Croatia Pass 0 0 0
Iceland Champ 97 29454 0
Nigeria Champ 111 28028 0
Brazil Not Champ 2740 609 0
Switzerland Champ 76 10025 0
Serbia Champ 115 17309 0
Costa Rica Champ 85 34382 0
Germany Not Champ 2296 370 0
Mexico Champ 106 14029 0
Sweden Champ 151 37918 0
Korea Republic Champ 94 58910 0
Belgium Not Champ 2620 150 0
England Not Champ 3259 105 0
Tunisia Champ 76 55385 0
Panama Champ 66 48115 0
Colombia Champ 59 2870 0
Poland Champ 58 4650 0
Senegal Champ 102 20900 0
Japan Champ 201 105825 0

Best of luck to OptaJoe and the rest of the crew over there.

 

Article by Seth Burn