Month: June 2018

As a few people have posted on Twitter, the resemblance is striking:

 

 

Switzerland got the win, and Nate's bankroll is back to a healthy $1,423,988.

The market is surprisingly down on Belgium vs. Tunisia. I've looked ahead to the Belgium-England match and it's possible both teams will want to lose it, but this is a bit early for group advancement politics.

Nate has some faith in South Korea vs. Mexico, but the big hope is that Sweden can pull off win vs. Germany. If Germany are not improved from their match vs. Mexico, we could see a shocking early exit for one of the pre-tournament favorites.

 

Bankroll %	Team	Wager	Risked	To Win	Result
14.08%	Belgium	-0.5	200498	77114	0
2.86%	South Korea	-0.5	40791	204770	0
5.03%	Sweden	-0.5	71560	452259	0
1.71%	Germany-Sweden	Draw	24387	83161	0

 

It's bit a bit of a rough patch for Nate, but Argentina... sorry, Croatia snapped his losing streak. I'll never know what Argentina was thinking, and now they are in grave danger of missing the cut.

A Costa Rica miracle draw would be nice, as would an Iceland win over Nigeria, but the big game of the day for Nate is Switzlerland-Serbia. Nate has faith in Switzerland. We shall see if that faith will be rewarded.

His current bankroll is $1,134,815.

 

Bankroll %	Team	Wager	Risked	To Win	Result
1.59%	Brazil-Costa Rica	Draw	18064	105312	0
1.03%	Iceland	-0.5	11658	21335	0
13.71%	Switzerland	-0.5	155554	318886	0

 

The World Cup marches on. This weekend’s slate of games runs the full gamut from competitive nail-biters to likely one-sided romps. Here’s your tactical guide to the six games taking place Saturday and Sunday.  

Belgium vs Tunisia

Belgium coasted to a 3-0 win against Panama in their opener. The score line wasn’t deceiving, they certainly dominated the lesser side, but it also didn’t do anything to alleviate concerns that while talented Belgium might not be a cohesive unit. Two of their three goals came from incredibly individual play, a difficult volley from a tough angle for Dries Mertins and a gorgeous outside of the boot angled cross from Kevin De Bruyne to Romelu Lukaku. Roberto Martinez’s team did more than enough in the opener to demonstrate they’ll be fine and advance to the deeper stages of the tournament, but they haven’t yet shown that once there they’ll be able to compete against teams that both attack and defend competently. Luckily for them, Tunisia doesn't present that challenge. They're a team happy to defend deep and hang on. Still, it would be nice for Belgium to start demonstrating the ability to create good chances rather than continue to rely on individual talent to carry them through.  

South Korea vs Mexico

Mexico are coming off the shock result of the tournament so far. But, their win over Germany doesn’t actually help much when it comes to predicting how they’ll perform in their second time out. Mexico’s manager, Juan Carlos Osorio, is deeply committed to tailoring his game plan to each opponent. The upside of that approach is that his teams seldom get caught shoe-horning an awkward approach into a match where it’s not really appropriate. And, when he gets it right, well, just ask Germany. The down side is that Mexico’s win in the opener doesn’t help predict how they’ll perform against South Korea. They’re going from a match where they were a dedicated counterattacking side, focused on exploiting an exposed midfield, to one where they will have the vast majority of the ball. Mexico can certainly field a side that’s comfortable in possession, but whether they can use that possession to create high quality chances is unclear. There’s not much positive to say about South Korea. They didn’t manage a single shot on target against a decidedly mediocre Sweden side in their opener. Squint really really hard and it’s possible to see a world where Mexico play a fancy interchanging possession game and lose the ball at just the wrong moment for Son Heung-min, South Korea’s star hybrid forward to gallop into the breach. But South Korea have an exceedingly narrow path to an upset, and even a mediocre showing out of Mexico should likely to seem through.  

Germany vs Sweden

Well, things could be going better for the Germans. After doing their best Arsenal impression in the opener, Sweden will be a welcome change of pace. Eventually Joachim Low will need to figure out how to fix the gaping Bastian Schweinsteiger shaped hole in his midfield, but on Saturday it’s unlikely that it will get taken advantage of. Sweden simply don’t have the speed or dynamism to exploit Germany’s weakness. Germany will look to do their thing, control the ball, and create great chances around the box. Sweden will look to hold on while the Germans do that. One thing to watch is whether Germany’s fullbacks once again get caught upfield. Against Mexico there was an attacking disconnect with Germany playing aggressive passes into the penalty area for Timo Werner and Thomas Muller at the same time that fullbacks Joshua Kimmich and Marvin Plattenhardt were coming into the attack. It's part of why the team was so exposed. Making those same mistakes again may not prove fatal against Sweden, but it’s not a great sign for the Germans long term chances if they can’t start to get that problem solved.

England vs Panama

England’s last second winner against Tunisia was deceiving. They dominated the match start to finish. They remained committed to their 3-5-2 style deep into the match despite the tied score line, choosing to bring on Marcus Rashford and Ruben Loftus-Cheek as like for like substitutions rather than take off a center back. Instead they upped the attacking tempo by freeing outside center backs Kyle Walker and Harry Maguire to become more involved in the attack. If there’s one concern for England it’s that most of their attacking thrust came from set pieces. Not only were both goals scored by Harry Kane off set piece routines, but 13 of their 18 shots game from dead ball situations. Only five shots came from open play. It would be encouraging to see England turn more of their possession into dangerous shots, rather than turning it into corners and free kick opportunities that they then turn into good shots. Panama is likely to defend deep, try and make themselves difficult to break down, and if absolutely force into it counterattack occasionally. England need to make them pay for dropping deep with penetrative possession and dangerous movement from whichever midfielders get the nod from manager Gareth Southgate.  

Japan vs Senegal

Japan’s shock win against Colombia in their opener through Group H wide open, although it might be more accurate to say that it was the inexplicable decision of Carlos Sanchez to intentionally handle a ball in front of his goal in the third minute that was the real agent of chaos.  Now Japan only need to manage a draw here in order to have a strong chance at progressing to the knockout stages while Senegal still have a match against Colombia looming. In their opening match Senegal beat Poland 2-1, and while they were outshot 11-8 they managed the all important task of keeping Poland’s Robert Lewandowski from exerting any influence on the match. They held him to two shots, both from outside the box. Senegal played a strong overall match against a Poland side that usually likes to play open matches, defending well and creating good opportunities which they took advantage of. The combination of taking the lead in the 37^th minutes and Poland’s tendency to want to control the ball meant that Senegal spent the majority of the match defending, but they were very comfortable doing so. Against Japan they’re going to have to carry much more of the play, but if they can do that they’ll demonstrate that their a dangerous threat to upset a team or two in the knockout rounds.  

Poland vs Colombia

Despite their disappointing opening result there’s not a lot of reason for alarm about Colombia. The dual whammy of not having James Rodriguez in the starting lineup and then conceding a red card and a penalty in the third minute make losing to Japan understandable. But their wiggle room is just about gone. Anything other than beating Poland and they’ll be at serious risk of being eliminated. That’s a particularly dangerous predicament for Colombia because while they are consistently defensively sound (mind bendingly dumb red card not withstanding) they’ve often struggled to score goals. This team was built to play tense low scoring matches that eventually get decided by a moment of brilliance from James or Juan Cuadrado either scoring for themselves or creating for a striker like Carlos Bacca or Radamel Falcao. It wasn’t built to comfortably outscore teams in must win scenarios. Colombia will likely be fine, but this isn’t a comfortable situation for them.

On the seventh day Nate wishes he would have rested. Instead, he saw Morocco, Iran, and Saudi Arabia all pick up losses. His bankroll is down to $1,205,447. He'll be looking to see Denmark and Croatia restore said bankroll to its former glory. In other news, we here at Statsbomb are running a contest! If you can figure out what Argentina are doing with their starting lineup, you'll win out eternal gratitude because we are bloody stumped. https://twitter.com/RoyNemer/status/1009534764271984640

Bankroll %	Team	Wager	Risked	To Win	Result
11.80%	Denmark	-0.5	142221	155020	0
0.96%	France-Peru	Draw	11591	36163	0
1.49%	Peru	-0.5	17913	95833	0
10.40%	Croatia	0.5	125366	101102	0

Please tweet your answers at us if you have any clue as to what Argentina are thinking.

Nate Silver has now wagered (or passed) on 80 world cup games (I ignored the 3-4 game in the 2014 world cup). In that time he has run his bankroll up from $100,000 to $1,485,883. All six of his current wagers are attempting to win more than his original bankroll. What a ride. Russia has continued to impress on home soil. Japan pulled off a nice win against 10 men. Senegal pulled off a surprisingly dominant upset against Poland. What has struck me is how few draws there have been. For Nate's sake I hope we see one tomorrow.

Bankroll %	Team	Wager	Risked	To Win	Result
2.47%	Portugal-Morocco	Draw	36673	103417	0
3.74%	Morocco	-0.5	55559	319465	0
5.17%	Uruguay-Saudi Arabia	Draw	76782	490639	0
2.34%	Saudi Arabia	-0.5	34814	695245	0
3.05%	Iran-Spain	Draw	45326	269688	0
2.11%	Iran	-0.5	31282	594353	0

   

Andres Iniesta is a legendary footballer, an all time great. An elegant wisp of a man with an incredible haul of footballing trophies and achievements including, of course, the Man of the Match award in the 2010 World Cup Final.

Throughout the years he has weaved geometric shapes all over the midfield, dizzying opponents with his ability to find pockets of space and has threaded passes between centre back and full back with unerring precision over and over again. At times he has appeared to be able to slow down time around him, freezing the opportunity so that he can create an opportunity for a teammate. Facing his own goal and feinting, circling around the on-rushing Yohan Cabaye, dipping gears and gliding past Edinson Cavani and a lunging Marco Veratti before drifting inside and treading water - waiting for the exact moment at which the desperately retreating David Luiz's ankles lock - before sliding Neymar through to score. Even just three months ago, turning his body smoothly infield and in that one motion – more identifiable as belonging to Iniesta than maybe his own thumbprint - taking the ball under control out of Sami Khedira's reach, allowing himself a full scan of the field ahead and placing the ball, weighted perfectly, between Jerome Boateng and Mats Hummels and into Rodrigo's path for a goal.

However, there are clear indications that Iniesta has declined significantly over the last few years and this season could be considered as one too many at the top level for the 34 year old. Fernando Hierro may, understandably after Julen Lopetegui's shock dismissal, be keen to prioritise the stability of the Spanish team and put his faith throughout the World Cup in the starting eleven which he used in their opener against Portugal. Iniesta has always been considered a player who cannot be judged using basic information, such as goals and assists, and he did perform well against Portugal but a review of some underlying statistics over a longer period of time sets off some alarm bells and should be cause for Hierro to think about some other options and indeed for teams to think about the general risk of relying on someone of that age.

It is certainly no surprise that a footballer of Iniesta's age is not at the height of their powers any more. Research by Michael Caley has shown that players generally peak between the ages of 25 and 28. Iniesta's decline has been commented on for some time but the age factor is often ignored and the decline somewhat excused as being due to a stylistic change for Barcelona post Pep Guardiola and specifically because of a move to a more direct style under Luis Enrique. Iniesta himself is clearly aware of the toll aging has taken though and recently acknowledged to Sid Lowe that; "I'm leaving (Barcelona) because my body's asking me to. It takes longer to recover physically and mentally it's exhausting. I've squeezed out every drop, there's nothing left. This will be my last World Cup. I don't know if my Spain career will definitively close but this might be the last time. In July we'll analyse everything." He could, of course, be the reason that Spain go on to win this World Cup but let's start that analysis a little earlier than July. The quantity of chances Iniesta is creating has declined significantly this season. In the 2017/18 season in La Liga his rate of expected assists fell to half that in previous years and the quality of the chances he created fell back too. Naturally, given the reduction in both the quantity and quality of the chances he is creating there has been a quite dramatic decline in the amount of assists he was likely to contribute; he managed just two all year. In addition to the decline in attacking output there are some significant changes in terms of defensive statistics. Iniesta is famed for his passing and movement but both his club and national side have also been renowned for their aggressive pressing and desire to win the ball back high up the pitch. Therefore it is noteworthy that, Iniesta is now making fewer interceptions and winning a lower percentage of the decreasing amount of tackles he is attempting. Surely at least Barcelona understand that he is aging and they need to reduce his playing time accordingly? This season he played 2467 minutes in La Liga and the Champions League which is just over 27 sets of 90 minutes. It does seem like he had a bit of a rest in comparison, for example, with Lionel Messi who played 3780 minutes in those competitions. However, we should consider the fact that the average amount of time Iniesta played in those competitions over the previous 8 seasons was 2730 minutes – just around 3 matches more than what he played in 2017/18. In fact, in only two of those previous 8 seasons did he start more La Liga matches than in this one. The World Cup, with its condensed schedule of games, places incredible physical demands on any player let alone a 34 year old one who has just completed what, in effect, was a full season for him. Barcelona did of course win La Liga in 2017/18 and incredibly were almost undefeated the entire domestic league season. Perhaps Iniesta was able to coast at times and statistics are not representative of what he is really still capable of and will contribute in the World Cup. If that is the case we might see some evidence of him saving his best performances for the UEFA Champions League but it doesn't seem as though that was the case. He played in 8 games in the competition and averaged a shot and key pass per game while losing possession on more than twenty occasions. In the knock out stages against Chelsea and Roma he won under half of the tackles he attempted and in fact, when he was needed the most, in Barcelona's collapse away to Roma he made the second fewest passes of any Barcelona starter, and contributed little defensively. Curiously, there is one area in which he is showing a noteworthy increase; dribbling. However, a statistical increase there isn't necessarily a positive. Euan Dewar wrote about how basic dribbling stats can be seen as more of a stylistic indicator and that analysing where an individual's dribbles start and end and what they lead to may be of more value in terms of understanding whether what they are doing can be considered a positive action. Analysis, of the sort Dewar has undertaken, into Iniesta's dribbles might reveal that he is not actually benefiting his team by dribbling more. In Friday's World Cup game for Spain against Portugal he attempted five dribbles which was the most of any player on the pitch. One did lead to a shooting opportunity for David Silva inside the penalty area but on three of the other occasions Iniesta was deliberately funneled to his left towards the touchline and outnumbered and outmuscled by the opposition. Spain performed well in many ways in the match against Portugal and clearly do have less to be concerned about than other pre-tournament favourites who also failed to start with a victory such as Brazil, Germany and Argentina. It is true that Spain were undone by some out of the ordinary events; a penalty, a David De Gea error and Cristiano Ronaldo finally scoring an international tournament free kick at the 45th attempt. However, there were some warning signs for them too in terms of a lack of clear open play chance creation from midfield, a lack of runners getting into the box from midfield for Jordi Alba's cutbacks and some susceptibility to counter attacks. Mexico showed in their victory over Germany the damage that can be done on the break to an aging midfield. Spain at least, unlike Germany, do have some protection in the 6 position courtesy of Sergio Busquets but 34 year old Iniesta may turn out to be a liability in midfield against a team of that type. His declining contribution towards defensive work also flags up some concerns for when Spain play against a team that they should press. Ironically, he was exploited by Germany in their March 2018 friendly. Iniesta tended not to press Toni Kroos and allowed passes to the right half space behind him which pulled Sergio Ramos dangerously forward out of position. Perhaps Hierro should consider whether the younger Thiago might be a smarter choice. StatsBomb's very own Managing Editor Mike Goodman wrote about the recent stylistic trend of the 'hybrid winger/forward' and pointed out that there are multiple examples at this World Cup of high scoring wide attackers. These range from the obvious such as Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo to younger talents such as Mexico's Hirving Lozano and Iran's Alireza Jahanbakhsh. In fact, Spain are one of the few major nations without a player of this nature. Although David Silva has had a great season in terms of goalscoring contribution he is not exactly this type of individual. Another option for Hierro would be to move Silva inside to replace Iniesta and to introduce a different type of threat in Iago Aspas or Lucas Vazquez on the right or Marco Asensio, who had an xG Assisted rate per 90 of 0.31 in La Liga this season, on the left. Iniesta is such a beloved, incredible footballer that there is the risk he is treated as a special case and not as a general lesson for teams about the ramifications of relying on old, declining players as key elements of your team. An understanding of the age curve and statistics beyond the most basic of outputs will help teams be a step ahead of the inevitable. If teams don't manage these processes effectively there will be a relatively unpredictable point at which they will definitely have to take action – when the player themselves decides to move to a lesser league or retire – and there's an opportunity cost in terms of the development of others. Playing minutes are a finite resource and if someone like Andres Iniesta is tying them up they can't be used to develop, improve and retain the next candidate for that role. Consider as an example Thiago and the fact that he left Barcelona at the age of 22 and that they are now rumoured to be considering bringing him back for €70 million. Thiago is now 27 and, if he returns, the pattern could repeat itself again with the same impact on the playing minutes available to younger midfielders at Barcelona such as Carles Aleñá and Riqui Puig. Time is creeping up on much of Spain's midfield – although Busquets and Silva are essential team members they'll be 30 and 32 at the close of this tournament so Saul and Asensio deserve some of their minutes - and there does seem to be some evidence that this was a season too many for Iniesta at Barcelona and it could well prove to be an international tournament too many for him as a starter with Spain. (Header image courtesy of the Press Association)

The World Cup is here, and with that comes those glorious couple of weeks to kick off the tournament where each matchday consists of three to four group stage matches. We’ve already had the defending champs lose their first match, the implementation of VAR, Russia putting up five in the tournament opener, a Cristiano Ronaldo hat-trick, and other delectable goodness from the first five days. Despite only having an average of 2.29 goals per match so far, the 2018 iteration hasn’t been uneventful in the least, so let’s dive into some of what's already gone on in Russia.

England's Corner Kick Routines

England were very good for large parts of the first half against Tunisia and on the whole deserved their 2-1 victory. What was interesting to see in particular was just how much mileage they were getting off of their set piece routines. Over 72% of their 18 shots came from dead ball situations. With the lack of time available for international sides to create the level of sophistication from open play that we see during the domestic football season, one of the best ways to get ahead of the game in international football is dedicating time to developing set piece routines. It seemed clear that Gareth Southgate went over specific corner kick movements which paid huge dividends.

Tunisia started with something resembling a zonal marking approach to defend England's corners, which left England with a four against three opportunity at the top of the 18 yard area. As soon as the corner is delivered, three of the England players, Harry Kane, John Stones, and Jordan Henderson, would sprint in different directions and attract one of the three Tunisia players defending that space. That would leave one of the England players with enough room to rise up and create a headed chance, which was how they engineered their first goal.

 

http://gfycat.com/GorgeousAmusingHen

 

Tunisia changed things up in the second half, matching England's four up top with four of their own. While this did lead to less wide open headed attempts, you still saw the likes of Deli Alli and Harry McGuire muscle their way and create a few half-chances. England's second goal was also from a corner kick routine. and was quite a nice counter to Tunisia man marking the top of the penalty box. Kane was able to peel off his marker and find himself wide open in the six yard area, prime real estate for a high quality chance if someone could win the first header, which McGuire did.

 

http://gfycat.com/ImmediateAdoredDrongo

 

If England proved anything in their victory over Tunisia, dedicating real time towards set pieces works.

Goncalo Guedes Role as Second Striker

In Portugal’s final tune up match vs Algeria, Goncalo Guedes played as a second striker, a departure from the inverted winger role he was used in at Valencia. It worked to great effect, so much so that his two goals and general ability to create chaos with his speed were enough for him to supplant Andre Silva for the starting spot alongside Cristiano Ronaldo.

Guedes didn’t achieve those same heights against Spain, which is understandable on some level. Going from Algeria to Spain is like going from Glass Joe to Mike Tyson in Mike Tyson’s Punch-Out. He was used as an outlet for counter attacks as Spain weren’t able to counter-press nearly as aggressive as they've been renowned for after losing possession. In one sense, Guedes did his job successfully, with his first touch and subsequent assist for Ronaldo’s second goal being the highlight of his 80 minutes of action. But, he was largely uninspiring on the whole and you couldn’t help but wonder what might’ve been for Portugal had he not had the yips during some of Portugal's promising fast breaks.

 

http://gfycat.com/gifs/detail/tensefearlesscurassow

Defensively, it was clear that Guedes was following Ronaldo in Portugal’s 4–4–2 medium block, allowing Sergio Busquets and the Spanish CBs to create 3v2s during buildup play, instead just trying to deny passes into the central areas. This worked fine until Spain shifted into their left sided focus attack which bypassed the central areas and targeted the left half-space in Portugal's own third, to near devastating effects. It'll be interesting to see if Guedes gets another shot at playing that central position or will Fernando Santos instead turn to Andre Silva.

France’s Attacking Struggles

Didier Deschamps hasn’t been immune to criticism with his role as manager of the French national team, especially with the talent boom that’s gone on within French football over the past World Cup cycle. His job is to get the most out of what might be the most talented squad at the World Cup. He has the football equivalent of a Ferrari and has the responsibility of not screwing it up. Meek performances like ones against Australia won’t quiet down the masses who are convinced that Deschamps isn’t good enough to lead France to glory.

France were largely fine for the first 20 minutes or so, highlighted by the half chance from Kylian Mbappe less than two minutes in. Mbappe functioned as the central attacker of the three up front and was finding openings in Australia’s back-line to run into, just without that home-run pass from one of his teammates to really create those top level chances. The main tactical feature of France during buildup is that whenever they play Mbappe along with Ousmane Dembele and Antoine Griezmann, they’re pretty close together and the fullbacks are pushed higher up to provide width while also at times function as an outlet for switches of play.

 

 

As the first half wore on, things got worse. France became extremely static during possession. There were less and less dynamic runs being made from the likes of Paul Pogba and Corentin Tolisso. Fullback Benjamin Pavard was being used as an outlet to switch up play but he wasn't interested in trying to take on his individual marker in 1v1s and just recycled possession. France were just slow, compounded by the fact that they weren't even all that interested in trying to create transition opportunities or even applying loads of pressure on Australia's backline when they were circulating the ball during buildup play.

The second half wasn't anymore inspiring, with only moments of individual brilliance from Pogba and a shaky penalty call given by VAR saving France from dropping points against Australia. It's concerning that France picked what was about as close to a maximum fun lineup as possible, and their overall performance was the furthest thing from fun. If not for Germany, this would've been the most disappointing performance from a big nation so far.

Mexico’s Blistering Counter Attacks

You’ll be hard pressed this entire tournament to find a better display of counter attacking football than what Mexico did to Germany, including the splendid goal by burgeoning star Hirving Lozano. Some of this was undoubtedly helped by the fact that Germany played a double pivot of Ton Kroos and Sami Khedira: midfielders that for all their gifts on the ball aren’t exactly blessed with the mobility needed to cover ground defensively.

Germany faced similar problems to Spain, but on a grander scale. Because of the lack of mobility in their midfield along with Khedira’s penchant for migrating forward even when deployed as a #6, it left giant acres of space for Mexico to run into. Joshua Kimmich was bombing up and down the pitch, but that left the entirety of his side unoccupied for Lozano to gather the ball or even just run unopposed, and Kimmich is not fast enough to catch someone like Lozano when spotting him 10 to 15 yards. Combine all of that with a lack of aggression in winning the ball back in higher areas and Mexico having a number of players who are good and fast on the ball, and you get a match that descends into chaos. There were at least 5 instances in the first half alone where Mexico offered the promise of creating a high quality shot during fast break scenarios.

http://gfycat.com/OccasionalCheapClownanemonefish

Lozano was a key figure during these counter attacks, with his starting position usually around the left-half space at the beginning of these sequences, which helped a lot when he was on the ball and facing an unsettled Germany defense. One of his best features during his season at PSV was how much fear he inflicted on opponents with his combination of speed and awareness on how to time his runs off the ball. He would look at the opposing fullback, see when he’s on his blindside and time his run to get in goal for a shooting opportunity, which he did against Germany on multiple occasions.

If Mexico had any shot of finishing first in the group, they had to get something against Germany, and more likely beat them. They smartly pushed all their chips in with an athletic starting XI that tore Germany to bits by applying pressure on the Germans from their own half and immediately getting men forward for the first 45 or so minutes. Though that did slow down as the match progressed, it was still good enough for a massive victory that completely changed the complexion of Group F.

With Sweden's and England's wins, Nate has seen his bankroll grow to $988,684. Wins from either Japan or Russia would put him over $1M (he was briefly there after Sweden's win). Persoannly, the Blue Samurai are the team I am naturally pulling for, so a stunning result would be fantastic (albeit highly unlikely).

 

Bankroll %	Team	Wager	Risked	To Win	Result
2.11%	Japan-Colombia	Draw	20822	54971	0
7.78%	Japan	-0.5	76945	389344	0
5.14%	Poland	-0.5	50867	70197	0
16.36%	Russia	-0.5	161752	179545	0

 

The 80's were a different time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-NshzYK9y0 Mexico's win over Germany and Switzerland's draw vs. Brazil put Nate's bankroll to $906,033. A Sweden win over South Korea would put his bankroll over $1M. Alternatively, if Panama puts up a result against Belgium Nate will be above $1M at the end of the day no matter how the other games go. Finally, he'll be rooting for England to defeat Tunisia.

Bankroll %	Team	Wager	Risked	To Win	Result
12.93%	Sweden	-0.5	117137	131194	0
6.45%	Panama	0.5	58447	271940	0
2.35%	England	-0.5	21292	9903	0

 

Signing for a Premier League team is supposed to be the most important move in a player’s career – it’s the most watched league in the world. Players get that fat pay check and become relevant to a wide audience even if they’re only playing for a mid-to-lower table team. Unfortunately, this also means that if a player’s move to the Premier League fails, he gets written off by those same Premier League-centric fans. That's what happened to Andrej Kramaric. But his story doesn't end there. He bounced back from being a Premier League bust by becoming a regular for a top Bundesliga side, and now he's starting for Croatia at the World Cup.

Kramaric was a consistent scorer during his early career in Croatia, with 15, 18 and 21 goal campaigns between 2012/13 and 2014/15. In that last season, for Rijeka, he scored at the mouth watering rate of roughly once every 74 minutes. Although Kramaric wasn’t particularly young – 23 in that great last campaign for Rijeka –, his scoring record was so consistently great that many were the sides after him. According to StatsBomb's fearless leader, Ted Knutson himself, Brentford looked at the possibility of getting him in the summer before he blew up but couldn’t get the manager to agree to bring him in. By the time they tried again in January, the price tag was heavier and bigger teams were involved.

Leicester City eventually ponied up €10.4 million in January of 2015. That move unfortunately ended with him only playing 587 minutes over the next calendar year, and taking part in only two games during Leicester’s title winning campaign. After Kramaric failed to settle, Hoffenheim showcased their excellent recruitment, snatching him up with a permanent deal after first having him on loan for six months. In his first full season he notched 15 goals and 8 assists from his first full season there and followed it up with 13 goals and 6 assists this campaign, helping Hoffenheim finished in a Champions League spot for the second season in a row.

In the Bundesliga, Kramaric tends to be as one of two strikers in Hoffenheim’s 3-5-2 or as of one two supporting forwards when they chose to play in something closer to a 3-4-3. Regardless, he always has a lot of build-up responsibilities as opposed to acting as a pure number striker. He's a highly technical and mobile number nine, whose value comes not only from scoring goals but also his ability to connect with his teammates.

He can drop deeper, usually from the left half-space, and launch his overlapping wing-back forward into space or switch the side of play:

Closer to the box he’s also perfectly capable of putting teammates through on goal and combining with other attackers in reduced amounts of space. He’s good at interpreting space and using his technical ability to take advantage of it.

His 2.1 key passes per 90 minutes are great for a forward and showcase his ability to take set-pieces in addition to all the creative work he does from open play. It’s not common to see a team throw one of their strikers into full-on set-piece duties but his 0.7 key passes per 90 from corners and free-kicks is a very respectable return – with the bonus of him being perfectly capable of threatening the goal directly if the dead-ball is central enough.

But, don't get lost in his creative work. Kramaric is a striker with 102 goals in about 15,000 league career minutes, he does all sorts of work in front of goal. In his two full campaigns in Germany he’s proven to be a consistent finisher, only slightly overperforming his expected goals  and shone as a high-volume shooter – his 3.4 shots per ninety putting him only behind Robert Lewandowski and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in the league.

Starting from a deep position means he can get good chances by arriving in the box late, and even when he starts the play further forward he moves well within the box to create space for himself, with an excellent first touch that regularly buys him extra-time to place his finish. Here, Kramaric display all his talents; he drops to the left half-space to help the team circulate possession, before appearing freely in the box where he finishes from a difficult angle.

He’s quick and, although not the tallest at 5’ 8’’ (1.77 m), he knows how to use his body well to retain the ball and approach duels. He ends up both fitting into and benefiting from his side’s pressing demands through that physicality couple with his spatial awareness.

 

But not all is great: he’s just a bit too trigger happy, with 1.4 shots per 90 from outside the box. There’s always going to be a tendency for this when from a high shooting forward who has such a free role, but a few adjustments here could help make a him a much more effective attacker.

On Croatia, he mostly approaches games from the right side of Croatia’s attack – yet another position to add to his collection. As a right-footed player on the right, he has a lesser tendency to cut inwards to shoot at any given moment as opposed to when he works from the left half-space with his club. On the other hand, Croatia won’t benefit as much from his all-around influence on the ball, but there’s plenty of midfielders in the side with said responsibilities. So, they get a get a good finisher appearing in the box from the right side to support the striker, with the chance to connect with back-post aimed crosses from winger Ivan Perisic.

In this role, Croatia also gets to benefit from Kramaric's own crossing skills.  Despite not playing on the wing, his mobility at Hoffenheim ended up leading to him playing a number of crosses. Nobody on the team had more accurate crosses per 90 than Kramaric’s 1.9 – with a very good 33% accuracy rate as well. You can expect him to look for Manduzkic from that right side as well.

Croatia’s right side is a lot more dynamic, with Atletico’s Sime Vrsaljko offering more offensive support than the opposing full-back. He’s key in support of Kramaric: the forward only completes .8 successful take-ons per 90 and isn’t the most inventive dribbler around, so it’s important that he doesn’t get overly isolated out on the right. Vrsaljko should ensure numerical superiority against the opposition’s full-back or at least numerical equality if the opposite wide midfielder is defending too.

In Croatia’s debut game at the World Cup, manager Zlatko Dalic surprised by playing Kramaric in a second forward role behind Mandzukic. He acted in a free role closer to the one he usually plays in Germany and ended up being credited with his team’s first goal until it was given as an own goal. In this week’s match against Argentina, however, it's likely Croatia will introduce a third midfielder again, leaving the question of where Kramaric will be played to take advantage of Sampaoli’s questionable backline shrouded in mystery.

There’s logic behind Kramaric’s role for the national team. His versatility allows him to play on the right or simulate his Hoffenheim role in a national team context. At 26 he’s at the peak of his powers and, with contract until 2020, he's likely to remain at Hoffenheim – as much as he might be useful for several higher standard sides. But, with a good showing in Russia, we might get this truly underappreciated player to be recognized by most – for his talent and not for his short stint in the East Midlands.

(Header image courtesy of the Press Association)

The World Cup is upon us. FIFA's glorious international smorgasbord, where every day throughout the group stage, fans are treated to an incredible array of matches. Some, like Spain vs Portugal, are incredible. Others, like Croatia vs. Nigeria are mostly inedible, but you don't know that until you have already eaten it, so it is part of the fun. Plus, there's always more to gorge on tomorrow!

Long-time StatsBomb fans know that we are advocates of set pieces.

I have written two major pieces on this, the first discussing why it seems to be a big hole in the game, and the second with more a focus on market dynamics, and how much cheaper it would be to generate additional goals via improved set piece coaching than trying to buy the same improvement in a forward. We also developed and maintain an ongoing Set Piece Program as part of our consultancy work for teams at the club level and for international federations.

Usually, set pieces account for 25-33% of all goals scored in a league. They almost never account for that amount of training time or resources. That percentage seems to jump a bit in international tournaments because teams are more risk averse, leading to fewer open play goals, but similar numbers of set pieces. Thus far in the 2018 World Cup, set pieces account for right around half of the goals. Presumably this will slow down a bit, but I thought it would be fun to break down certain elements that stood out for me thus far.

Ronaldo's Changing Technique

Ronaldo's generally used a knuckleball technique on free kicks for years now, to very mixed success.

This technique is useful for flighting the ball from range with very little spin. It makes it easier to hit it hard, but depending on the characteristics of the ball and the wind, not always that easy to hit the target because the ball can move in unexpected ways. However, when it comes down, it can descend hard and fast. And "unexpected" isn't always bad, because it causes problems for GKs as well. Prior to his goal against Spain that made it 3-3, he'd apparently had zero success in his last 45 attempts from direct free kicks.

As Ronaldo was lining up the kick, Danny Murphy said on English commentary that he didn't think he could get the ball over the wall and back down again. That seemed a bit silly, because good takers can easily get the ball back down from 22-23 yards, but maybe less so with the knuckler? Let's face it, Ronaldo just hasn't been great at free kicks for a while.

Hence I was surprised to see this.

Side foot, gorgeous top and side spin, perfect placement. BOOM! 3-3. Portugal didn't even set up a screen to help block the goalkeeper's sightlines - Ronaldo's free kick was just that good. However, the difference in technique is notable. Professional golfers constantly work on their swing to keep adjusting to the changing reality of their body, and also to work through current problems.

In this case, it's like Ronaldo put away his driver for once and picked out the 8-iron instead. There is no reason this can't and shouldn't happen in football, and it was really cool to see Ronaldo change up technique based on circumstances. Speaking of free kicks...

GK Screens

I don't know how Kolarov hits that so hard and with so much spin in what looks like an easy motion, but that's his gift. Unlike on Ronaldo's kick, Serbia do send two players out to the wall to help mess with the keeper's vision, and it looks like it may have had a small effect. Check out the double hop from the GK as he sets his feet to save (admittedly easier to see in the video highlights).

Now the extra screen may or may not have had an impact on when the GK saw the ball, but there's a good chance the keeper was unsighted until the very moment that ball came over the wall, which is a big edge. This is what you'd expect to see and why you do it. GK reaction time = space to hit the target where he can't make the save. He has to reset his feet a second time before he picks up the flight of the ball and make a leap. Maybe it was unsaveable, but good process is good process and deserves noting. (Note: I discussed GK screens a lot more here.)

Read Plays

Diego Costa's second for Spain was very interesting. First of all, this is normally (and correctly) a direct shot on goal.

Usually you line a bunch of guys up with the wall, someone whacks the bejesus out of it, and a small percent of the time, it's a goal, and once in a very rare while you get a lucky rebound. Spain didn't do any of that.

Look at the formation of the Spanish players above.

They have split two players very wide here on a free kick from dead central. Why? David Silva does what American sports generally call a "read", analysing who is matched up against each of the wide players, looking for a potential mismatch. In this case, he sees Busquets at 1.89m matches against Guedes at 1.78.

(Watch the video just before he takes the kick and you can see him glance again to look toward Busi.)

This triggers the floated wide ball, where Busquets is more likely to beat his man and win a header back down into the center of the box, which can then be cleaned up by whichever runners manage to get clear of their man (in this case it was Diego Costa and Gerard Pique). If neither wide player is mis-marked, Spain can either take the DFK, or restart the possession normally.

All of this is based on the kick taker's analysis of the situation. It's a clever way of testing the opposition understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of your team, and building variation into identical formation setups. All it takes is one screw up to yield a goal, and the vast majority of football matches are decided by one goal alone. Thus far in this World Cup, a remarkable amount of those goals have come from set piece situations.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have so many more games to watch.

Ted Knutson @mixedknuts ted@statsbomb.com (Header image courtesy of the Press Association)

Costa Rica did very good things for Nate in the last world cup. We shall see if they will be able to repeat that performance. Mexico could pull off a huge result with a win, both for their chances to advance, and for Nate. Switzerland could win Nate, to borrow a term from Spaceballs, a shitload of money. A mere draw would be nice, but a win would put Nate over $1M. He's currently at $665,905. Denmark and France both did their jobs, but the lion's share was done by Strákarnir okkar. Well done gents. The only blemish was Nigeria, who had a terrible day vs. Croatia.

Costa Rica	-0.5	29006	119796	0
Mexico	-0.5	21490	155156	0
Mexico-Germany	Draw	6498	24106	0
Switzerland	-0.5	47665	452816	0
Switzerland-Brazil	Draw	41930	168141	0