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June 14, 2018

The Return of the King

By Seth Burn

At the last World Cup Nate Silver turned 100K into $571,538. It was an amazing run and we’ll see what he can do with that bankroll soon enough.

https://statsbomb.com/2014/07/germany-must-make-a-tough-decision-nate-silver-day-24/

He’ll be starting off with Saudi Arabia:

Team Wager Risked To Win Result
Saudi Arabia -0.5 7694 63555 0

I also calculated all of his futures, although I only gave him a 10k bankroll there (with unlimited credit). Eliminated means the team does not make it past the group stage. Teams are listed by group and then alphabetical. Best of luck to Nate on what I’m sure will be another memorable run.

Team Future Risked To Win Result
Egypt Eliminated 725 439 0
Russia Advance 1225 544 0
Russia Win Group 1063 2285 0
Saudi Arabia Advance 612 5200 0
Saudi Arabia Win Group 130 4604 0
Uruguay Eliminated 612 2600 0
Uruguay Not Win Group 1993 2432 0
Iran Advance 317 1900 0
Iran Semifinalist 102 10264 0
Iran Win Group 63 1800 0
Morocco Advance 334 976 0
Morocco Finalist 135 20200 0
Morocco Quarterfinalist 472 4378 0
Morocco Semifinalist 103 2455 0
Morocco Win Group 81 1040 0
Portugal Champion 182 4100 0
Portugal Eliminated 933 2800 0
Portugal Finalist 480 5876 0
Portugal Not Win Group 60 24 0
Portugal Quarterfinalist 414 534 0
Portugal Semifinalist 739 3150 0
Spain Champion 529 3410 0
Spain Eliminated 187 1466 0
Spain Finalist 525 1571 0
Spain Quarterfinalist 633 284 0
Spain Semifinalist 673 848 0
Spain Win Group 55 35 0
Denmark Champion 19 2350 0
Denmark Quarterfinalist 686 3271 0
Denmark Semifinalist 38 404 0
Denmark Win Group 471 2285 0
France Eliminated 444 4000 0
France Not Champ 2320 270 0
France Not Finalist 2000 500 0
France Not Semifinalist 2498 1759 0
France Not Win Group 910 1856 0
Peru Advance 114 168 0
Peru Quarterfinalist 379 3188 0
Peru Semifinalist 71 1560 0
Peru Win Group 358 2950 0
Argentina Eliminated 679 3225 0
Argentina Not Champ 130 10 0
Argentina Not Semifinalist 442 174 0
Argentina Not Win Group 1771 2480 0
Croatia Champion 3 92 0
Croatia Eliminated 44 80 0
Croatia Finalist 50 717 0
Croatia Quarterfinalist 184 360 0
Croatia Win Group 402 976 0
Iceland Advance 755 2499 0
Iceland Finalist 1 100 0
Iceland Quarterfinalist 273 3380 0
Iceland Win Group 300 3850 0
Nigeria Advance 200 500 0
Nigeria Quarterfinalist 329 3794 0
Nigeria Win Group 219 2520 0
Brazil Eliminated 327 3772 0
Brazil Not Semifinalist 432 400 0
Brazil Not Win Group 822 2352 0
Costa Rica Not Win Group 598 20 0
Serbia Eliminated 160 114 0
Serbia Finalist 4 200 0
Serbia Win Group 225 2036 0
Switzerland Advance 600 600 0
Switzerland Champion 126 16700 0
Switzerland Finalist 134 3465 0
Switzerland Quarterfinalist 744 3685 0
Switzerland Semifinalist 257 2716 0
Switzerland Win Group 629 4875 0
Germany Not Champ 640 103 0
Germany Not Finalist 880 314 0
Germany Not Semifinalist 1160 959 0
Germany Not Win Group 691 1872 0
Korea Republic Semifinalist 1 131 0
Mexico Eliminated 570 543 0
Mexico Win Group 105 696 0
Sweden Advance 1296 1750 0
Sweden Finalist 58 2300 0
Sweden Quarterfinalist 469 3158 0
Sweden Win Group 351 2600 0
Belgium Eliminated 126 933 0
Belgium Not Win Group 690 800 0
Belgium Semifinalist 415 163 0
England Champion 156 2656 0
England Finalist 265 2012 0
England Quarterfinalist 298 227 0
England Semifinalist 322 989 0
England Win Group 158 208 0
Panama Advance 279 2660 0
Japan Advance 2020 5050 0
Japan Finalist 1 100 0
Japan Quarterfinalist 746 9809 0
Japan Semifinalist 157 6208 0
Japan Win Group 820 6150 0
Poland Eliminated 571 800 0
Poland Not Win Group 1264 596 0
Senegal Eliminated 2410 1854 0
Senegal Not Win Group 900 150 0

 

 

Article by Seth Burn