Spain's World Cup showing belies a true revolution

When Spain crashed out of the 2015 Women’s World Cup at group stage and after failing to win a game, it accelerated a revolution that was simmering within women’s football in the country. Before being split onto two flights for the return from Canada, the team presented an open letter to the Royal Spanish Football Federation (RFEF), calling for change and for the end of Ignacio Quereda’s 28 year tenure as the coach. Stories of Quereda’s dismissive and sexist behaviour, his archaic training methods and the lack of any opposition scouting were leaked to trusted journalists who had been stalwart followers of women’s football. By the time the planes landed in Madrid, the media was rife with stories and scandal. The players presented a united group in front of the cameras. As had happened to players before them, they knew that speaking out could cost them their positions in the team, but enough was enough. The media and public outrage was too great for the RFEF to contain. It was well known that then President Ángel María Villar had little interest in women’s football, but even he couldn’t sweep this mess under the carpet and pretend that nothing had happened. Quereda resigned before he was dismissed, and Jorge Vilda was appointed as the new coach. Vilda is a purebred. His father Ángel worked as a fitness trainer for some of the best coaches in La Liga (such as Luis Aragonés, Johan Cruyff, Jupp Heynckes and José Mourinho) and his son was always around the teams and managers as he grew up. Vilda Snr. was then employed by the RFEF as coach of the Spanish women’s U19 team. Jorge also came onboard to coach the U17 women. The Vildas – Ángel in particular – were respected and loved by the players that they coached, and the results began to reflect their hard work and input into the Spanish women’s game, as medals were won at youth level UEFA European Championships and FIFA World Cups. Shockingly, Vilda Snr.’s contract was not renewed by the RFEF in 2015. The official statement was that the Federation was looking to “inject younger blood at coaching level”. Ironically, Ángel was 65 at the time and Quereda was 62, but somehow the latter remained in his position – for a few months, at least, until the senior women’s team called for change. The changes came. Vilda Jr. took over and 10 senior players on the team were either immediately dropped or marginalised into secondary roles for the next year, before not being selected again. The official stance for their non-selections was that they were for “technical reasons”, but given that some of these players were (and still are) performing at high levels, that seemed to be a far-fetched excuse. Since taking over, Vilda has retained a core squad and tinkered with the lineups by calling in new players on an irregular basis, and only when incumbent players were unavailable. The new players have barely enough time to settle in before being ousted again. However, several youth team players have made the jump to senior level in Vilda’s time – Mariona Caldentey, Patri Guijarro, Aitana Bonmatí, Lucía García, Andrea Falcón and Nahikari García – all of whom are in the current World Cup squad playing in France. Lucía García and Nahikari García are Spain's top two expected goals leaders Spain's expected goals tree map after two games When Vilda announced his 2019 squad for Spain’s second appearance at a Women’s World Cup, there were howls of disbelief as 2 of the season’s top Liga performers, Ángela Sosa and Esther González, were omitted. Both these players are capable of shooting from outside the box and taking every opportunity that is presented to them to have a shot at goal. This is certainly something that is missing from this Spanish selection, but that’s nothing new if you’ve watched any Spanish football for at least the past 10 years. The Spain game is based on possession, meaning “if we have the ball, then you don’t”. However, possession is meaningless without intent, and the Spanish women’s team is not alone in playing incredible passing football that can make a viewer gasp out loud at its beauty, but also groan in frustration that there is no one willing to take a shot on goal. It’s almost as if Spanish players think that they can’t take a shot unless they are in the box with at least a 90% success rate of getting the ball into the net. Unsurprisingly, Spain have attempted the third-most passes in the final third of the tournament, after the United States and the Netherlands. The games against South Africa and Germany have seen Spain retain possession and the team looks particularly strong in midfield with Virginia Torrecilla the standout player and Aitana Bonmatí playing a strong cameo role. The defence is doing reasonably well too – centre-back Mapi León is the standout player there. The danger attacking players – Jenni Hermoso, Lucía García and Nahikari García – are producing some fine opportunities with little reward to show for it, thus far. The attacking statistics are woeful. Of the three goals scored, only one has been from open play with the other two from the penalty spot. Shots are being taken but mostly off target or straight at the Keepers, so Spain still has a lot of work to do up front in the areas of accuracy and opportunity. Spain have had 32 shots from open play in their opening two games, but only nine have been on target (a fairly poor 28%). Spain's open-play shot map, with only 28 per cent of shots on target To Vilda’s credit, he reacted early in the game against South Africa, making changes at the beginning of the second half which saw the team more fluid and dynamic. After the match, Jenni Hermoso commented that “she liked Nahikari García on the pitch” for the danger and opportunities that she creates – perhaps a subtle pot shot at Vilda’s lineup choices. Vilda adjusted the lineup again for the Germany game and it almost worked except for a massive defensive error which allowed Germany a squeaky 1-0 win, but again the Spanish attack was not accurate enough in front of goal, and Vicky Losada would have been a better choice in midfield instead of Silvia Meseguer. The final group game will be against China, and Spain will be keen to win the game to finish second in Group B, or at least be one of the 4 best third-placed teams in order to qualify for the knockout rounds. The milestones are coming for the team, and this tournament has already seen them win their first-ever World Cup game (against South Africa). Getting out of the group stage will be the next aim, where they will play either the USA (if they finish second in Group B), or England (if they qualify in third). Unless Spain gets their shooting boots on, it will be difficult to see them progressing beyond the round of 16 where they will be confronted with two strong opponents. Spanish women’s football is on an upwards trajectory, particularly in the age group categories in which both the U17 and U19 teams won their Euro competitions last year, the U17s won the World Cup in Uruguay and the U20s were runners-up at the World Cup in France. We haven’t yet seen the best of what Spain has to offer in attack. There are younger forwards coming through that have a more direct style – players such as Eva Navarro, Clàudia Pina and Salma Paralluelo. When combined with incumbent players such as Guijarro, Bonmatí, Lucía García and Nahikari García, we will see a more dynamic Spanish attack to complement the possession game. The bigger question will be if it will be Jorge Vilda that will manage the next transition for the Spanish La Absoluta. There are already rumblings of dissatisfaction that he is not selecting the best of the available players, instead playing favourites, and not properly utilising the players that he is choosing. There is also a question about how he can be the Spanish Women’s Technical Director as well as the coach of the Spanish senior team – something which in their Technical Director’s Report, FIFA strongly advises against, because that is too much influence from one person in power. Should Vilda step down, there is a huge desire within the Spanish WoFo community that the next coach be a woman, and there are at least five or six very strong candidates that could take his place, beginning with U17 coach Toña Is. However, that’s in the future. In the meantime, the fans are celebrating each success, mindful of how far the Spanish women have come since the brave generation of players stood strong in 2015 and demanded change – ten of them to the detriment of their own careers. Spanish women’s football will be forever indebted to them.

Can the Reggae Girlz find their rhythm and get a win for the underdogs?

If you are into underdogs, the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup has several teams you can root for, but Jamaica stands out for defeating all odds to even qualify.

Dubbed the “Reggae Girlz”, the story also has the backing of Cedella Marley, daughter of Bob Marley, to add into the mix as the Jamaican Football Federation has denied them funding on multiple occasions while choosing to allocate all funds to the men’s team. FIFA has come under scrutiny for not providing enough oversight in regulating how funds can be used by federations and hopefully more media attention will add pressure for equal funding for the Reggae Girlz.

While the team is ranked 53rd in the world and dead last among the 24 teams at the tournament, everybody is rooting for them, so much so that head coach Hue Menzies called them “the darlings of the World Cup” in a pre-match press conference.

Some say that just making it to the world’s biggest stage is enough for the Reggae Girlz, but they are hungry for more. For the first half in their first World Cup game ever against Brazil, they had everyone wondering if they could pull off a win or a draw against heavily favoured Brazil. Using open-play expected goals as a guide, Jamaica had had chances worth 0.22 expected goals and limited Brazil to just 0.45.

Even though Jamaica ending up losing the match, their first at a World Cup, 3-0, the Reggae Girlz made a good showing of themselves.

Goalkeeper Sydney Schneider, a 19-year-old American college student with grandparents who were born in Jamaica, made headlines for keeping her team in the game and successfully saving a penalty attempt from Andressa. With penalties generally converted 75-80% of the time, saving one is no mean feat, and Italy’s Laura Giuliani had seen that even saving the first attempt isn’t always enough.

Sometimes saving a penalty isn't enough: shots faced by Laura Giulani between 20-25 minutes vs Australia

 

 

Australia’s Sam Kerr swept up the rebound in that match, but Schneider not only guessed correctly which direction to go but also stopped the shot with a softer touch and got up quickly to wrap up the ball before anyone else could get to it.

A former striker who was first thrown into the net when she was 14 or 15 years old, Schneider is from a New Jersey town not far from USWNT star Carli Lloyd’s hometown. Before the tournament, the gap in stardom between the World Cup winner and soon-to-be World Cup debutant will have been monumental; now, it’s Schneider who’s made headlines.

Hue Menzies praised Schneider in his post-match press conference, saying: “Sydney had a stellar game. I told our team in the locker room that Sydney really saved us a lot, not just from embarrassment, but she was really there for us and we need to respond to those things. When your goalkeeper is pulling things out for us, you’ve got to respond to that.”

Unfortunately, embarrassment is a real possibility at this World Cup, the United States’ record 13-0 victory over Thailand a notable example. Jamaica struggled too, despite keeping the scoreline respectable; Brazil took 17 shots with six on target and maintained 62% of ball possession. The total expected goals highlights the disparity, Brazil finishing on chances worth 2.30 expected goals, Jamaica on just 0.41.

 

Brazil vs Jamaica expected goals race chart

 

For Schneider’s part, she said that she was just doing her job and wished she could’ve helped her team more. Her coach praised her goalkeeping intelligence but wants her to be more vocal with the backline to provide more leadership.

But as for what it would take for Jamaica to get a positive result against a Group C consisting of Brazil, Italy and Australia, there’s just one word: Bunny.

“We haven’t seen the best of Bunny Shaw,” Jamaica’s head coach said.

While Schneider may have grabbed the headlines after their first match, Jamaica’s 5’11” centre forward Khadija Shaw, who goes by the nickname ‘Bunny’, is usually the star. Both players ended up impressing at American universities, but Bunny Shaw had a much more difficult path to get there.

Shaw grew up in an inner-city community of Jamaica where three of her brothers have been killed due to gang-related violence. “Jamaica is not the same as a lot of places in the world but violence is everywhere,” she has said, “so you just have to try and make what's best for you. That's what helped us get through it.”

Bunny finds solace in football and gave the world a preview of what she is capable of in a recent friendly against Scotland where she scored a brace, leading her team to an impressively close game against the Scots in their own backyard. The Reggae Girlz showed up to the pitch right before the match started because of cancelled flights and lost luggage but still found a way to be up 1-0 in the beginning of the first half, although Scotland eventually rallied to win 3-2.

Coach Menzies said after the match against Brazil that he wished the team could’ve gotten Bunny Shaw more involved in the second half. He also said that Jamaica couldn’t find midfielder Havana Solaun so that she could connect to Shaw up top and he had to give credit to Brazil for being committed to defending their lines and blocking off her options.

Passing networks highlight this struggle to find Solaun in the second half. In the first period, the right-sided central midfielder was one of the most advanced players on the team.

 

 

After the break, her average position was far deeper, and Solaun was eventually substituted in the 71st minute.

 

 

The story is similar with Shaw. The striker managed three shots, all of which were on target, in the first half. After half-time, she didn’t have a single attempt on goal.

Still, as a focal point and driving force in the attack, Shaw proved her worth, winning four aerial duels and completing five successful dribbles during the match. Shaw has 31 goals in 24 international caps, so be on the lookout for her to possibly score against Italy on Friday and against Australia next Tuesday.

Despite the loss, Menzies believes that many of the mistakes his team made in the first game are “fixable” and that Jamaica can still make it to the top two of Group C, especially after Australia’s loss to Italy. “We feel, athletically we can match up with a lot of these teams,” he said. He thinks the players were dealing with a lot of nerves of being in their first World Cup game and wants to focus on analyzing film to get the players to read the game a little quicker than their opponents.

As for how Menzies is going to prep Bunny Shaw going forward: “We are going to push her a little bit. I do believe she is going to respond to that.”

Jamaica, and the mass of fans that the Reggae Girlz are attracting, will be hoping that all the pieces come together for Bunny to show the world what she and her team are fully capable of.

Rachel Rose Gold started playing soccer at the age of 5. She follows Everton, USWNT, WSL, England Lionesses, and basically anything related to women's football. You can find her on Twitter @RachelRoseGold_.

Argentina, Canada and the art of playing ugly at the World Cup

Underwhelming matchups are a staple of international play. A favorite doesn’t quite dominate, an underdog hangs tough, and the result is a scrappy, disjointed affair. Sometimes the bigger team sneaks by, sometimes the smaller one holds on, but either way they can be difficult to love (unless you happen to be invested in said underdog).

Not all annoying defensive matches are created equal. Sometimes a defensive underdog plays out of their minds, other times a favorite coasts, and most of the time the balance is somewhere in the middle. On Monday, as the World Cup entered its first full week, Argentina squared off against Japan and Cameroon faced Canada. Both games were difficult, defensive affairs. In the first, however, it was Argentina’s committed defensive performance that drove the match, in the second it was the favorite Canada’s conservative focus on doing just enough to win.

Argentina did a masterful job of foiling Japan’s approach. The unheralded, underfunded, South American side committed to clogging up the midfield, and when they succeeded, Japan had no fallback plan. Japan played a traditional 4-4-2 and were simply never able to work the ball through the midfield to the strikers supported by wingers. Over and over again Argentina waited for Japan to try and move the ball through midfield and then blew up the play. Japan’s passing network is just a mess of sideways and backwards connections around the periphery. And when the ball went into the middle, Hina Sugita and Narumi Miura, if they kept it, were reliably forced to play backwards and sideways.

 

In large part because Japan only had two midfielders, and they never committed to having anybody else help in the center of the park, they weren’t able to use possession to force Argentina to defend deeper in their own half. Argentina, for their part, were more than willing to commit their attackers to help blow up midfield. Striker Soledad Jaimes often times was drawn into her own defensive half, leaving winger Estefanía Banini as the only attacking option when Argentina regained control. It was conservative but effective, as Argentina’s defensive pressure map shows, they managed to defend well above their own box, and were not regularly forced into the kind of defensive shell that more talented teams can tee off against.

There are ways Japan could have chosen to combat Argentina’s approach. Instead of trying to go through midfield, the team could have simply played around it. They could have attempted to punish Argentina for contesting the middle so heavily by playing over the top, or tried to push their fullbacks high up the pitch early in possession to stretch the game laterally, making it harder for the Argentinian swarm to do its thing. But they didn’t. It wasn’t until Jun Endo came on in the 73 minute that the pattern of the game changed. Japan got the ball forward more quickly more effectively in the game's last quarter but by then it was too late.

That’s how surprising results happen. The underdog has a plan, the favorite fails to react until it’s too late and before you know it Argentina walks out of the match only conceding eight shots and 0.24 expected goals while getting five of their own for 0.11 total. Argentina didn’t attack, but their defense, with a little help from Japan’s stubbornness, kept the thing close enough to fully warrant the side’s historic first World Cup point.

That’s a far cry from what happened when Canada defeated Cameroon 1-0. In that match, Canada controlled the game from whistle to whistle, and the favorite, as opposed to the underdog, was directly responsible for the conservative nature of the match. Canada played fairly conservatively throughout the first half, took the lead right before the whistle, and then they really decided to play unambitious keepball for the final 45 minutes.

As you can see from the difference in pass maps, the fullbacks stopped getting forward at all, the midfielders dropped deeper, and Jessie Flemming dropped into midfield from her striker position to collect the ball and knit things together. In the first half it was Sophie Schmidt stepping forward from midfield to do that. Canada had the lead, so what was the point in keeping their foot even moderately grazing the gas pedal.

 

That’s reflected in the shots they created as well. While they took eight shots in both halves, all shots are not created equal. In the first half, seven of Canada’s eight shots were from within the penalty area. They averaged a relatively unimpressive 0.060 xG per shot (0.058 from open play). That’s not exactly cutting a side open, but it’s still well ahead of their second half numbers.

The team’s eight shots after the break averaged an anemic 0.031 xG per shot (0.019 from open play). And that includes an 87th minute 0.11 xG chance from legend Christine Sinclair which made up the bulk of the scoring that half. For most of the time Canada was content to move the ball, and make sure Cameroon had no space to counterattack into, confident that the African side could not build their own attacks from the back. Given that Cameroon managed only four shots and 0.09 xG it seems like a reasonable plan, even if it was a boring one to watch in action.

The moral of the story is that not all testy defensive matches are created equal. Some are driven by a successful underdog like Argentina stymieing a stronger attacking team that can’t figure out how to turn on overdrive and get the game out of the mud. It’s impossible to fault the underdog for doing everything in their power to claw their way to a point. Others dour matches, though, are brought to you by a favorite that’s decided to do just enough to win. Canada got their goal and then didn’t take a single risk while strangling the life out of Cameroon. The plan worked, and Canada, one of the stronger teams in the tournament, are quite good at executing it. Still, it’s hard not to wonder what the team might be with a bit more ambition. When underdogs win ugly it’s because they have to, when the favorites do, they're making a choice.

Header image courtesy of the Press Association

Three misleading results from the World Cup's opening weekend

Oftentimes the final score obscures the true story of a match. Here are three results from the opening weekend that don’t reflect the underlying performances of the teams involved.

Norway 3-0 Nigeria

Norway walked away from their opener with Nigeria comfortable 3-0 victors, but the result doesn’t really tell the tale. While the two teams were quite clearly stylistically different, the match itself was, for long stretches, conducted on extremely even footing. Both teams played a fast, vertical style. Norway focused on getting the ball to their talented strikers early, with their wingers pinching in to provide service. Nigeria played the ball wide to Franny Ordega. But the results were similar. Both teams created ten chances, and both created similar expected goals totals. Norway just had both a deflection that ended up in the back of the net and an own goal to help them, while Nigeria got no such luck. It’s true that this framing somewhat undervalues Norway. Their opener might not go down as a high xG chance, but the move, from a short corner, was defended extremely poorly by Nigeria, in ways that an xG model might fail to properly account for. Their second goal was the result of a gorgeous defense splitting ball from Guro Reiten which left Lisa-Marie Karlseng Utland through on goal, albeit from a tough angle that required her to absolutely murder the ball to score (and perhaps still should have been handled better by Tochukwu Oluehi). And the goal Nigeria put in the back of their own net was generated from a dangerous attack, which doesn’t go down as a shot generated, since the defense managed to do all the damage themselves. All of which is to say that while the xG model might have these two teams as extremely even, and the goals had it extremely lopsided, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Norway was better than Nigeria, but not all that much better. Does it matter? Well, maybe. The result is a brutal blow for Nigeria in a group where France is almost certainly going to run away with first place, and Norway now has a mammoth goal difference in the race for second. The three goal defeat also makes it that much harder for them to get one of the four third place spots that advance. But, it also means that we shouldn’t write off their chances of putting a big result up against South Korea, and keeping it tight against France. They also have the good fortune to play against the hosts in the third group stage game when the favorites will possibly only need a draw to ensure first place in the group. Nigeria have a difficult road ahead but don’t count them out because of a single lopsided score line.

Germany 1-0 China

China had Germany right where they wanted them. Germany are one of the favorites to win the entire tournament. They have more talent than China at virtually every position. They meticulously work the ball forward and try and generate high quality looks for their forward Alexandra Popp supported by wingers Svenja Huth and Giulia Gwinn as well as midfielders Sara Däbritz and Dzsenifer Marozsan. It’s a pretty plan. It also led to a shot char that looks like this. That’s 16 shots, none of them particularly exciting China, on the other hand (or foot as the case may be), decided their best chance at success was to allow Germany to have possession, and then kick them, take the ball away and counterattack at lightening speed. They created only five chances, but those five chances were truly golden ones. Despite the shot differential China actually created more expected goals over the course of the match than Germany. The good news for Germany is that whatever vulnerability China exploited to create those first half chances, the favorites shored it up at half time. China didn’t have a single chance on goal after the break. The bad news is that it took an absolute stunner from distance from Gwinn for Germany to break through at the attacking end. The question of whether to credit China or blame Germany for an end result that was a lot less one sided than expected is difficult. We’ll learn more over the next two matches. Germany’s next opponent is Spain, a team whose skill lies in their own possession play. If Germany can’t break them down, not only should alarm bells start going off, but flashing red emergency sirens should be everywhere, with the loudspeaker announcing an emergency evacuation of the German bandwagon. Meanwhile, China take on a South Africa side that gave Spain a surprisingly difficult match for 60 minutes. Still, if China want to be considered as anything more than a team that played a mildly surprising opening first match they’ll need to show they can handle one of the weaker teams in the tournament with ease.

Australia 1 – 2 Italy

Speaking of alarm bells, Australia, a dark horse contender to go deep in the tournament lost their opener to Italy. This one is less concerning than it seemed at first glance. Italy threatened to get in behind Australia’s back line all match long, but they didn’t often actually succeed. They only generated six shots over the entire match. And they didn’t have a single one between the 15th minute, and the 55th when they equalized, and had only two between then and the end of the match. It just how happens that the second one was a dramatic 94th minute game winner. There are definitely some things Australia should be concerned about. Despite creating a number of strong chances early on, after going up a goal they simply weren’t able to put the game away. They took 11 shots, but not a single one registered as even 0.10 on the ol’ xG meter. Even after Italy tied the match, Australia never really poured pressure on. If you let the underdog hang around, sometimes they’re going to nip you at the wire. As for Italy, these three points were desperately important. With Australia still seeming like they’re fine, and Brazil trouncing Jamaica 3-0 in the opener despite star Marta missing out due to injury, Group C seems incredibly competitive. Italy was going to need to get some fortunate points somewhere to have a chance of advancing. Now, if they can follow up this surprise victory with an easier win against Jamaica on Friday they’ll be sitting pretty to move through to the knockout stage.   Header image courtesy of the Press Association

Balling without the Ballon d'Or winner: Norway World Cup preview

 The European Championship in the Netherlands two years ago has become somewhat of a defining moment in Norwegian women’s football. It was an exceptionally poor tournament for Fotballjentene, who had to suffer the agony of going home before the knockout stages without having scored a single goal. But the mess had only just begun. The tournament became the tipping point that shattered an already fragile relationship between Ada Hegerberg and the Norwegian Football Federation (Norges Fotballforbund). Both Hegerberg and the team have been adamant that both are looking ahead and see no reason to dwell. However, there’s no denying that losing a player of her stature will raise its questions – both about why, and more importantly, going into this World Cup, where it leaves Norway. Who to look to in the absence of Hegerberg There is no like for like replacement for Hegerberg in the Norwegian player pool; hell, there isn’t one anywhere in the world. This does not mean that Norway’s manager Martin Sjögren doesn’t have plenty of qualified options in attack, though. Caroline Graham Hansen (Barcelona, formerly of VfL Wolfsburg), Guro Reiten (a new signing for Chelsea), Isabell Herlovsen (Kolbotn) and Lisa-Maria Utland (Rosengård) are Norway’s main attacking threats. Graham Hansen and Reiten both have exceptional technical abilities and can carve open defenses almost at will, while Herlovsen is a proven goal scorer for Norway with Utland her understudy. But when the most recognizable star is absent, people naturally look towards the next in line, leaving all eyes on Graham Hansen. She’s a football artist, one that is capable of the spectacular, and if anyone can make the difference in a team, it’s her. Graham Hansen may not be the most frequent goal scorer (with eight league goals in 22 appearances this season for Wolfsburg) but she is Norway’s main creative outlet and her understanding of where her teammates are and how to progress the ball to them is second to none. Wolfsburg and Norway creative attacker Caroline Graham Hansen Meanwhile, it’s Herlovsen who’s Norway’s most reliable player in front of goal, and the team will need her firing at all cylinders to stand a chance of going far this tournament. She’ll be supported by Rieten who, like Graham Hansen, is technically gifted like few others and can look unplayable. She has a nose for goal – at least in the Norwegian league (13 in ten league appearances this season, and 52 in 53 since 2017). Her left foot is golden and she’s a serious threat from distance as well as in the box. Reiten may not have had the impact at the Euros that many were hoping for, but Norway will hope this is the tournament where she announces herself to the world. Keys to success Norway will be one of the younger squads that turn out in France and there is no lack of interesting young talent available to Sjögren. However, there are also plenty of questions that remain unanswered, with less depth than the major nations and the spectre of a lacking Plan B at Euro 2017. Making the attacking pieces fit There is no doubt Norway have many of the right puzzle pieces to entertain us this summer. A key to success will be to fit those pieces together, which was something that didn’t happen during the Euro in 2017. Sjögren has mostly lined up in variations of a 4-4-2 formation, with Herlovsen up top together with Utland, and Reiten and Graham Hansen out wide. Thus far, Sjögren hasn’t managed to get the best out of Reiten and there’s concerns about whether the formations Norway have used have hindered her. She works best when she gets to play freely and this could be what makes or breaks Norway. Defensive woes Despite much of the talk around Norway being on their attack and how it will cope in Hegerberg’s absence, this is not actually where Norway’s main concerns lie. Their biggest worry is their defence. Sjögren’s preferred back four has consisted of Kristine Minde, Chelsea pair Maren Mjelde and Maria Thorisdottir, and Ingrid Moe Wold. It’s not a bad defence on paper at all, and utilising Mjelde in defence gives the team a firm base while also anchoring them through their captain’s leadership. Maren Mjelde radar chart, with a particular strength in passing completion percentage. However, Sjögren has opted to only take three centrebacks with him to France, with captain Mjelde being one of them. Previously played as a midfielder, she has now been moved to defence and Thorisdottir, her Chelsea teammate, will most likely partner her. But both Mjelde and Thorisdottir have had long spells on the sideline this season, with the latter only seeing 308 minutes of action in the Women’s Super League. If one of them is unavailable, there’s only Stine Hovland as back-up. Sjögren is not stranger at converting players, but it's less than ideal to have to do it in the middle of a World Cup. Right-back is pleasantly settled, but the left-back position has long been a headache for Norway. The solution so far has been to convert Minde, who is usually a winger. Other options have been Synne Skinnes Hansen, Emilie Haavi and Elise Thorsnes – all converted attackers who don’t play this role for their clubs. Minde has done well and has brought some attributes to the position that suits Norway, but it’s far from ideal. The injuries and a constant testing of personnel has meant that the Norwegian defence has looked shaky and it’s not a back-line that instills a lot of confidence going into the World Cup. Will Norway’s centre midfield be their secret weapon? As it stands, with Mjelde moving back into defence, the options for the two centre-midfield positions are all under the age of 25 and none have over 30 caps to their name. This may be a lack of experience, but it is a midfield filled with potential and perhaps one of the most interesting and vibrant ones heading to France. Twenty-one-year-old Ingrid Syrstan Engen, who has already secured a move to European juggernauts Wolfsburg, has been a constant in Sjögren’s side since making her debut last year. She is a rare talent, who has all the right traits to be the new midfield general. She’s strong and pacey, but perhaps most importantly, she’s a quick thinker who reads the game well. Her defensive qualities make her one of Norway’s most important players, especially considering the questions surrounding their defence. The amount of options is one of the most promising things about this Norway side. Sjögren has preferred to pair Engen with Vilde Bøe Risa in the middle of the park, but he also has players such as Frida Maanum – who has been labelled one of Norway’s most talented young players in a long time – and Karina Sævik available. Regardless of who he uses, the individual quality won’t drop much, and the trio also gives Sjögren some tactical flexibility. He can play either one next to Engen depending on what the match requires, or he can play with all three in the middle. The quality is there, but picking the right ones and being able to tweak before and during games will be key. Not many have been talking about Norway’s midfield, but this young core could very well, if used right, be their secret weapon. Expectations: There’s a certain sense of pressure on Norway and Sjögren, perhaps not a spoken one, but they’ll have added pressure on them to show that the Euros were a blip and not indicative of a wider problem. The excuses of a new coach and poor preparations won’t fly this time, and there is an expectation that Sjögren and the team will have learned from the evaluations after that tournament. The absence of Hegerberg will, despite everyone’s best efforts to deflect, add unwanted pressure. There have been endless questions and speculations about her absence, both from domestic and international media and fans, and that focus unfortunately doesn’t look like it’s going away. Despite this, and although it’s obviously tough to say from the outside looking in, there seems to be a genuine positivity around the squad. Norway’s group – with hosts France, South Korea, and Nigeria – isn’t one that Norway can just breeze through, but anything other than getting through it will be yet another massive disappointment. From there it becomes more unpredictable, but a quarter-final is not an unrealistic target. The defence raises its questions and it remains to be seen whether Sjögren can get the tactical midfield and attacking pieces to fit, but this will be an interesting squad to follow – both for those familiar with the Norwegian players and those who have yet to see many of these young and talented players in action. There is a good mix of experience and youth, between up-and-comers and players who have long since proven themselves. And, after the failure at the Euros, Norway is a team that’s hungry to prove themselves. Katja Kragelund has followed women's football for around 10 years. She primarily focuses on women's football in Scandinavia and Scandinavians playing abroad. You can find her on Twitter @applessquabble

Representing the world with the WSL

If you're a lover of football, England is the place to be. The men's side of the club game filled the semi-finals of both major European competitions, and the FA Women's Super League will be one of the best-represented leagues at this summer's World Cup. We covered the English and Scottish players that the WSL is sending to France earlier in the week, but that still leaves a good number still to cover. Another seven nations are represented by English top-tier clubs, although, with the transfer window ongoing, that could well increase before or during the tournament. A sizeable share of these WSL international stars are from 2017 European champions, the Netherlands. As a demonstration of how frantic the pre-tournament transfer window has been, Arsenal's Dutch offering went from four to two to three in the space of a matter of days shortly after the end of the season. However, it's 2018/19 WSL top scorer and PFA Player of the Year Vivianne Miedema and midfielder Daniëlle van de Donk who are the big names. Miedema's radar chart tells the story of a fantastic season, where she breaks the scale on three different stats. The 22-year-old averaged 5.36 shots and 0.76 expected goals per game, an astonishing level of attacking firepower. As if that wasn't enough, Van de Donk scored a full eight goals from the six-yard box alone.

Further back, the versatile Dominique Bloodworth plugged many a gap for the Gunners over the course of the season, including at centre-back, which is where she turns out for the Netherlands. Interest from Wolfsburg materialised and culminated in a transfer, while goalkeeper Sari van Veenendaal is also departing Arsenal after losing her club starting spot, despite being a significantly better shot-stopper than the league average and a safer presence on the ball. Sari van Veenendaal vs league average radar, performing well for shot-stopping and safe passing. She was displaced in the pecking order by France's Pauline Peyraud-Magnin who, while seemingly a more questionable shot-stopper, led the league in claiming more crosses than expected. For Arsenal, perhaps this decision of Peyraud-Magnin over Van Veenandaal makes sense, if the Gunners are facing teams more likely to be limited to throwing in crosses than taking meaningful shots. Internationally, though, Peyraud-Magnin is unlikely to see much game-time behind France's first choice, Lyon's Sarah Bouhaddi. Back with Holland, and Bristol City get some World Cup representation with Danique Kerkdijk in France as a back-up central defender to Bloodworth, if the warm-up games are to be believed. Everton midfielder Inessa Kaagman is also in the squad. Clearly wanting to restore balance to the Dutch north London Force, Jill Roord has been announced as an incoming Arsenal transfer, and is clearly pretty happy to be joining some of her compatriots. https://twitter.com/ArsenalWFC/status/1128314612418580486 International teammates joining up at the same club side is a story at Chelsea too, who have key players for Norway (who Katja Kragelund has previewed here) as well as Sweden. In Hedvig Lindahl, the Swedes have one of the best goalkeepers of the WSL, although she might want to keep an eye on her bottom-right corner. Hedvig Lindahl's shots faced; with a concentration of goals conceded in the bottom-left corner when facing the goal. Chelsea's Jonna Andersson and Magdalena Ericsson will be joining Lindahl in France. At club level, they're the Blues' regular left-back and left-sided centre-back respectively, but in recent national team games they've occasionally been used as like-for-like replacements. Ericsson's defensive activity map shows a concentration of action towards the left sideline, which is interesting. It suggests that the centre-back isn't afraid to move around and up the field to pressure opponents and cut out attacks. Magdalena Ericsson's defensive pressure map, showing a concentration of action high up the pitch towards the left sideline. As a comparison, here's England's Steph Houghton. The Lionesses and Manchester City captain still makes those defensive actions towards the sideline, but has a far higher concentration closer to her own goal as well. Steph Houghton defensive pressure map, showing the largest concentration of action relatively close to her own goal. The WSL also sees representation on Canada and New Zealand's squads, and these players could well face each other, as both nations were drawn in Group E. On the Canadian side, Janine Beckie struggled to get regular time for Manchester City, with 283 minutes spread over ten appearances, only two of which were starts. Adriana Leon was a more consistent feature for West Ham since joining in January, though. She scored one league goal as well as a brace in the FA Cup, helping the Hammers get to the final (where they lost out to Beckie's City). Speaking of West Ham, who have one of the more international squads in the league, New Zealand's Ria Percival was their regular right-back this season, putting up some impressively solid defensive numbers. Based on the warm-up games in the run-in to the tournament, she'll likely be lining up as a defensive-minded midfielder. Ria Percival radar chart, showing a particular strength in defensive actions. However, national team captain Ali Riley struggled to get time on the pitch for Chelsea in 2018/19 and Everton's Olivia Chance was out for the year with injury. But how much will this lack of game-time end up mattering? All three players featured in New Zealand's recent 1-0 win over England and 1-0 defeat to Wales (who didn't even qualify for the World Cup). National football is unpredictable. But let's finish on a note of consistency. Chelsea's defensive stars have already been touched on, but one of their key attackers, Ji So-Yun, will be a big part of the Korea Republic team. For Chelsea, only Karen Carney created more expected goals in 2018/19, and Ji also popped up with six league strikes of her own. Chelsea's expected goals assisted chart, with Karen Carney leading the way and Korea Republic's Ji So-Yun second. Ji will be joined in France by captain Cho So-Hyun, who joined West Ham in January. Cho scored the winning penalty in the FA Cup semi-final against Reading and generally appears to have performed fairly well, a little more creative than the league average. The transfer window will undoubtedly bring even more international stars to the WSL for the 2019/20 season, but the names mentioned here should give some English-based fans something to look out for in the rest of the World Cup.

What to expect when Real Madrid is expecting Luka Jović

Luka Jović’s transfer to Real Madrid is a perfect marriage of skills and need. Jović is only 21 years old and he’s really really good at finding space to get shots for himself. Real Madrid are desperately in need of a high volume shooter to lead their attack. The young Serbian’s transfer from Eintracht Frankfurt to one of the biggest stages in the world should be a roaring success if manager Zinedine Zidane can successfully meld that skill to his team’s obvious need. Let’s start with Jović. Last season he took 3.70 shots per 90 minutes. That number places him third in the Bundesliga (among players who played at least 1500 minutes) behind only Bayern Munich’s Robert Lewandowski and Hoffenheim’s Ishak Belfodil. Across Europe’s big five leagues he’s 14th overall. Of the thirteen players ahead of him, only Kylian Mbappe is younger. Additionally, not a single one of Jović’s shots came from a direct free kick. Unlike some of the games most famous shot getters, Jović doesn’t get to pad the numbers with the kind of low expectation dead ball bombs that Cristiano Ronaldo is famous for taking and Lionel Messi converts at historic rates. It’s no surprise then that Jović’s expected goals per shot of 0.13 stacks of quite favorably against the players who shoot more than him. Only Mbappe, Lewandowski, Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero and Napoli’s Arkadiusz Milik (barely, at 0.14) both take more shots and have a higher per shot xG. Jović takes a lot of really good shots. It’s what he does. Real Madrid, meanwhile, desperately need a high-volume shooter and goal scorer. The team never replaced Ronaldo. Unsurprisingly, this made the team’s attack worse. They went from taking 18.58 shots per match, generating 1.91 xG per match in 2017-18 to taking 15.24 shots and 1.33 xG. But, while Jović’s skills are a perfect answer to Madrid’s glaring need, integrating those skills tactically into the existing structure will be more complicated. For starters, the man who currently occupies the starting forward role on Madrid, Karim Benzema, despite being 31 years old, remains excellent.  Even though his 21 league goals last season come with the caveat that three were penalties and the remaining 18 were pretty far ahead of his xG of 11.92, that shouldn’t take away from the fact that during a season full of chaos, he was a consistent rock leading the line, for much of the season as Madrid’s only real goal scoring threat. For years Benzema was the perfect foil for Ronaldo, facilitating Ronaldo’s high usage rate by only taking the best shots for himself while committing himself to doing much of the table setting. In Ronaldo’s last season, Benzema took only 2.28 shots per 90 minutes, but having an efficient xG per shot of 0.16. Put it all together and that ends up at 0.37 xG per 90. Last season he compensated for Ronaldo’s absence by shooting a little more, 2.89 times per 90, but a little less efficiently, 0.12 xG per shot (which sure doesn’t end up mattering when you have the kind of finishing season that Benzema did, just don’t expect that finishing season to happen again as a matter of course). The result was a strikingly similar 0.35 xG per 90. Averaging a little over a third of an expected goal per game is a little light for an elite forward, but Benzema more than makes up for it with his creative work. He brings so much to the table that it’s more than forgivable that his goal scoring is a touch worse than the best forwards in the world. But, after a year of watching him step into the scoring spotlight, and not see his xG climb much higher than it had been, it’s fair to say that for Madrid to operate at its best, they need a player who generates shots beside Benzema. The question shouldn’t be which of Benzema and Jović will start, but whether the two of them can play together. Answering that question involves talking about another transfer. Eden Hazard is, of course, widely rumored to be on his way to Madrid. That signing would complete the front three. The real question is can Hazard, Benzema and Jović all coexist. And it’s not clear that the answer to that question is yes, talented as all those players may be. We’ve talked about Benzema. Jović is certainly comfortable with a striker partner, he played as part of a narrow attacking trio at Frankfurt, with Sebastian Haller alongside and Ante Rebić slightly deeper. They were supported by wing backs in a very conservative system. It’d be different at Madrid obviously, but playing off Benzema should be well within his wheelhouse. Hazard, obviously has spent most of his career on the left of either a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1 with occasional forays into center forwardom. So, what’s the problem? Well, during Zidane’s time implementing a system built around Ronaldo and Benzema, he consistently had to find solutions to keep the team more or less stable. The solutions took a few different forms. The rare moments when Gareth Bale was healthy he was such an athletic beast that he could fully contribute to the front three while also being a traditional winger defending one side of the pitch. Other times a more workmanlike third, Lucas Vázquez, was preferred. Or, finally, Zindane deployed an Isco type as the third, a player who has the possession control tendencies of a more traditional midfielder. Hazard is none of those things. The potential of this new front three is mouth-watering. Sure Jović isn’t yet, and probably never will become, Ronaldo, but with the added creativity of Hazard in the mix, that unit is likely to be as potent as the one that came before. But Zidane will have to find some way to balance that plan if he wants to keep from getting carved up by good teams at the other end. Maybe that means keeping the fullbacks conservatively positioned, or no longer being able to field increasingly immobile Luka Modric and the never very mobile Toni Kroos at the same time against good teams. Maybe it means another bigtime midfield signing (is that Paul Pogba’s music?). This is not an impossible tactical challenge to overcome, and it’s one that probably won’t rear its ugly head against bad teams beaten back under an onslaught, but it’s one that will lurk behind Zidane’s choices all season. Can he afford to start both strikers in big games against top notch opposition? If not, who sits? Does Hazard provide enough creativity that it makes sense to prioritize Jović over Benzema, or will Benzema’s all around great game bring out goal scoring in Hazard such that it’s Jović who misses out? Eventually this will work itself out. There will only be a couple of years at most where Benzema is still at the top of his game and Jović, provided he doesn’t struggle on the bigger stage, will become the starter before too long. But, in the meantime, for the upcoming season, Madrid’s primary tactical challenge will be whether or not a new look front three can all play together. If they can, Madrid’s time away from the top of Europe’s pyramid may be very short indeed.

Honing in on the Home Nations' World Cup squads

The World Cup is fast approaching and excitement is mounting. In the United Kingdom, neighbouring can, for once, share in this. Not only have both England and Scotland qualified (for the Scots, their first women's World Cup outing ever, and the first for either senior national team in over 20 years), but they've been drawn in the same group. This ancient neighbouring rivalry gives even newcomers to the women's game something to get their teeth into. And with Group D also including Argentina and Japan, the team who dramatically halted England's march to the final in 2015, FIFA couldn't have drawn a better pool for a wider, casual English audience who might need an easy narrative to latch onto. Happily, we can go a little deeper than that on these StatsBomb pages. For the most part, the stars of the two Home Nation teams play their domestic football in England’s FA Women’s Super League. Handily, this is a league that StatsBomb collects data for. To Scotland first. Central midfielder Kim Little missed 2017’s European Championship with a ruptured ACL, but is back fit for this summer’s tournament. The list of honours she's earned shows how big a miss she was two years ago and how glad the Scots will be to have her around now. Trophy-winner in Scotland, England, the United States, and Australia, she was voted Player of the Year by her peers in England in 2013 and then won the NWSL MVP award the next year. In 2016 she was named the BBC's Women's Footballer of the Year. Little by name but not by talent or reputation, she is a driving midfielder who dribbles the ball up the middle of the field and gets goals. Kim Little radar chart, particularly strong on successful dribbles Factoring in her goals and assists, Little’s averaged better than a goal every two games in her second stint at Arsenal (where she had also played from 2008-2013). Little may well play alongside club teammate Lisa Evans in the national team too. Evans predominantly played as a right-back in the WSL but also played time on the wing and would be taking up that latter position in the World Cup. A trio of Scottish forwards have Manchester City connections, although two have now left the club in successive summers. Out-and-out striker Jane Ross joined West Ham from City last summer to become the Hammers’ leading forward and 2018/19 league top scorer with seven goals and one assist. Meanwhile, City’s two main left-wingers this season were both Scots, Caroline Weir and Claire Emslie. Emslie has since announced a move to the Orlando Pride, but both were incredibly effective in City’s side as the team won both domestic cups and finished second in the league. Pride’s general manager Erik Ustruck was spot on when he said of Emslie: “Claire is a very dynamic forward that can provide the final ball that we’ve been looking for, with both feet. She loves to attack fullbacks for the full 90 minutes, she recovers well and she defends on the front foot.” ‘Provide the final ball that we’ve been looking for’ – tick, Emslie set up chances worth 0.43 expected goals per game last season, the highest rate in the league. ‘She recovers well and she defends on the front foot’ – tick, an average of 5.33 pressure regains (when the team wins the ball back after a player pressures an opponent) per game.

Weir may not excel in any one stat in the way that Emslie does, partly through having split her 2018/19 between wide and more central roles, but she still managed five league goals and six assists in the equivalent 14.97 full games (1347 minutes across 18 appearances). Although both mainly played on the left for City, Scotland manager Shelley Kerr started both players in the two most-recent warm-up matches against Brazil and Jamaica, Emslie out wide and Weir as a left-sided central midfielder. Speaking of that Jamaica game, which the Scots won 3-2 at Hampden Park, Chelsea’s Erin Cuthbert scored a screamer for Scotland’s first. https://twitter.com/MatchPint/status/1133675183540264960 As her shot map this season for Chelsea shows, the 20-year-old isn’t averse to shots from distance. Erin Curthbert shot map, with a number of shots from distance. Usually one would discourage players from firing shots in from this far out, but when you can hit them like Cuthbert did (and when goalkeepers struggle to cover the entirety of the goal), it doesn't look as bad a strategy. But then you notice the fact that, of the Chelsea player's shots from a similar area to the Jamaica goal this league season, she scored precisely zero. Attackers usually get the focus because goals are important and, on the statistical side, it's easier to find meaning in their numbers than for defenders. However, the forward line is also a point that needs to be focused on regarding England. ‘Which of the assortment of talented attackers will Phil Neville play’ is a serious question coming into the tournament. The big names, and those who played the final warm-up game against New Zealand, are Jodie Taylor (Reign FC), Toni Duggan (Barcelona), Nikita Parris (recently announced move to Lyon from Manchester City), and Fran Kirby (Chelsea). Duggan and Parris played the wide roles in a 4-2-3-1. England lost 1-0. The problem with this particular line-up is pithily summarised by Sophie Lawson: https://twitter.com/lawson_sv/status/1134791371083124736 And the point expanded on by Rich Laverty (both of whom are must-follows on Twitter): https://twitter.com/RichJLaverty/status/1134809070702145536 It’s a crowbarring of three – very talented – strikers into one team, but it hasn’t yet seemed to click. And England have two talented and exciting wide forwards on the sideline too, in Manchester City’s Georgia Stanway and Arsenal’s Beth Mead (the latter of the famous cross-shot goal against Brazil earlier this year). https://twitter.com/FootballJOE/status/1100889911228579840 Both are relatively young (20 and 24 respectively) and both have something to prove. For Stanway, a good World Cup could force City manager Nick Cushing to make her a central cog in a post-Nikita Parris attack. For Mead, recent interviews with her and England manager Phil Neville revealed an accusation and admittance of complacency of motivation which is now, it seems, behind the winger. If there’s one statistical quirk in the two players, it’s in shot choice. Stanway is more than partial to a punt from distance, such that her average shot from open-play this season had an expected goals value of 0.08 (or just a one in 12 chance of going in). Meanwhile Mead has something of a knack for scoring from weird angles, her famous goal against Brazil matched by two league goals for Arsenal from similar positions on that right edge of the box. England, the nation will hope, should manage to muddle through it in attack. Talent is talent, and individual moments of brilliance have lit up some otherwise stale warm-up games. Further back in the team, Laverty has also highlighted a chopping and changing in defence under Neville. https://twitter.com/RichJLaverty/status/1134901966759505920 If StatsBomb’s numbers can offer some nuggets of potential wisdom, Karen Bardsley averaged the most goals saved above expectation (per game) in her limited game-time this season. Carly Telford, the other main choice in goal, conceded marginally more than expected. Shot-stopping isn't the entirety of a goalkeeper's duties, but it will be interesting to see who Neville goes with. At centre-back, captain Steph Houghton is likely to be paired with either Chelsea’s Millie Bright or former-City teammate Abbie McManus (who has left as of the end of the season). Domestically, McManus largely played at full-back this season, but it’s interesting to compare the radar charts of the three. Houghton and Bright look very similar: defenders who clear the lines and play the ball long going forwards. Very English. McManus’ radar is mapping stats earned at full-back onto a template for centre-backs here, but she could offer something a little different if Neville doesn’t want two relatively similar players together at the back. And there we have it, a run-through of some of the key players for the Home Nations, who will face each other when England play Scotland on Sunday June 9. StatsBomb will have coverage throughout the tournament, hoping to be a nice balance of entertaining and interesting. We’re glad to have you aboard.

From Jorginho to Rodri: Manchester City's Plans for Life After Fernandinho

Manchester City has a Fernandinho problem. The problem is that he’s good, difficult to replace, and just turned 34. This is the same problem the club faced at the end of the 2017-18 season, but with another year of mileage on his legs. There are worse problems to have, and this one is easily overstated. The incessantly cited correlation between Manchester City’s losses and the Brazilian’s absences elides how few losses are being discussed. Fernandinho played 504 fewer Premier League minutes in 2018-19, and the club’s points total declined by two to 98 — the second-greatest tally in league history. He was out injured for two of the club’s four losses; he was also out injured for half of the 14 consecutive wins that secured the title. Manchester City have been very good without Fernandinho, and even better with him. Still, Fernandinho is 34 and won’t be able to provide 3,500+ quality minutes a year across all competitions forever. Ilkay Gundogan, his nominal backup, is too injury-prone to be counted on to replace all those minutes, he also is heading into the last year of his contract and hasn’t yet signed an extension. One could also argue that, for a team whose seasons are shaped by a handful of consequential matches, even a small drop-off without Fernandinho is particularly consequential. Manchester City, then, is back where it was last summer: An excellent team in need of a player who can excel at the base of its midfield. During the last go around City were most prominently linked to Jorginho and Fred. They’re unlikely to be available. The two midfielders came to England, and spent last season playing for Chelsea and Manchester United, respectively. Their first years in the Premier League were...complicated? Still, as Manchester City keeps searching for a Fernandinho successor, it’s worth looking at the two who got away, if only to make sense of their seasons and City’s thinking about its midfield. The appeal of Jorginho has never been a mystery: he’s an elite passer. Even in an often dysfunctional Chelsea team, he completed 90 percent of his passs and registered 10.54 deep progressions per 90 minutes. His passing was never really in doubt, mind you. Debates about Jorginho always come down to defense, which was...fine, maybe? He didn’t cover much ground, but on a possession-adjusted basis, Jorginho was able to rack up big defensive numbers at Chelsea. These stats are contingent. They don’t prove that Jorginho is a defensive star, or even net positive, so much as they suggest that, stationed in his deep zone on a team that dominates possession and gets little defensive work from its forward line, he can chip in with a fair volume of defensive actions. His gaffes and limitations are memorable, but his aggregate defensive contribution is sufficient. If there was a minimum defensive threshold for Fernandinho successors, he’s cleared it with his play at Chelsea. Don’t look now, but Fernandinho’s appeal also has a lot to do with passing. It gets talked about less because he’s the closest thing Manchester City has to a defensive midfielder, but the Brazilian chipped in with 10.84 deep progressions per 90 minutes this season (down from an admittedly otherworldly 12.29 in 2017-18.) Fernandinho’s passing helped make up for the absence of Kevin de Bruyne and, while a touch less accurate, resembled Jorginho’s. Much like Jorginho’s defense, some of his attacking contributions are best understood as contingent. The deep midfielder on a team like Manchester City, which has the players and tactics to generate lots of chances, is almost sure to end up with a significant xG buildup tally. Fernandinho’s 1.07 xG buildup/90 tells us more about Manchester City than the player himself. A tumultuous year later, City’s pursuit of Jorginho still makes sense, despite the ire he now brings out in Chelsea fans. Having failed to sign Jorginho, City spelled Fernandinho this season with a defensively limited midfielder who could replace the Brazilian’s passing. Ilkay Gundogan was good for a Fernandinho-esque 10.79 deep progressions per 90 minutes with 88% pass accuracy. However, he covered less ground and, when adjusting for possession, generated 1.17 tackles per 90 minutes compared to Fernandinho’s 3.11. Some of this difference likely stems from Gundogan having also been used in a variety of roles higher up the pitch, where he had fewer defensive responsibilities and could assist more chances. (This kind of usage helps to explain why Jorginho’s profile looks more like Fernandinho’s than the Brazilian’s nominal backup.) Manchester City, admittedly in the absence of other options, chose to replace Fernandinho’s passing this season and hope the defensive drop-off wouldn’t be too fatal. This calculus appears to be at odds with City’s reported interest in Fred last summer. He went to that other Mancunian team, where he didn’t play that often and everything was a mess, all of which makes it hard to assess his season. Still, there’s little reason to believe a passer in the mold of Fernandinho, Gundogan, or Jorginho is there just waiting to be unlocked. This is not to say Fred’s useless; his 7.24 deep progressions per 90 minutes were well above average for a midfielder, his tackling was comparable to Fernandinho’s, and he excelled at pressing opponents. There’s no way to make “he did things” sound like it isn’t damning with faint praise, but that’s what Fred did. Without passing a value judgment on the different ways one can be a midfielder, one can conclude he’s a meaningfully different type of midfielder than the other Fernandinho replacements considered thus far. Fred, however, is not that different from this summer’s mooted Fernandinho replacement: Rodri. Both players contributed 3.32 possession-adjusted tackles per 90 minutes last season and were good for a lot of pressing. The young Spaniard, with his 91 percent pass accuracy and 0.55 turnovers per 90, rarely gave the ball away. He also rarely did anything with it. Rodri completed 6.24 deep progressions per 90 minutes — about half of what Fernandinho put up in 2017-18 — and was below the levels of an average La Liga midfielder for successful dribbles and expected goals assisted. Some of this is likely a function Atlético Madrid’s peculiar tactics, where the midfield’s creative work is limited and then distributed across multiple players. (Rodri was the team’s leading tackler and fourth most prolific progressor of the ball.) Even if some of Rodri’s natural talents are being tamped down under Diego Simeone, it’s hard to know what kind of player Manchester City thinks he’ll become. What is to be made of Manchester City’s midfield targets? The range of Fernandinho replacements may be a concession to the dearth of players who can do so many things well. Before Pep Guardiola, City kept buying defensive midfielders to do Fernandinho-type things only to discover that they were comparably limited. Remember Fernando?  Guardiola appears to have conceded that Fernandinho is a unicorn who will have to be replaced with more of a specialist and some tactical tweaks. With Gundogan and Jorginho (in theory), City could optimize for passing and trusting that tactics and goalscoring could cover for their defensive limitations. The interest in more defensive players, like Fred and Rodri, can be understood as the inverse of that approach: optimizing for defence and trusting that the lost progression can be found by deploying the team’s many passers differently. This year’s interest in Rodri may also be understood in terms of age. Fred is now 26; Jorginho, 27; Gundogan, 28. They’re younger than Fernandinho, but solidly in their primes. Players of that age would extend City’s competitive window, but would also need to be replaced before long (Fernandinho is admittedly an exception to this rule). Passing may age well, but imagine Jorginho or Gundogan with even less mobility. Players in the age range are also likelier to be the finished product. Rodri, on the other hand, has time to develop into a different kind of player. It’s possible that City is betting that some Guardiola magic can unlock passing skills that were tamped down by Simeone. Add some more progressive passing to his defensive work, and suddenly you’re in the neighbourhood of a Fernandinho replacement. These two theories are not mutually exclusive. Even if Rodri or someone like him ages into the Fernandinho role, tactical tweaks will probably be required to smooth over the transition. That a star midfielder and new tactics will be required to replace Fernandinho ultimately tells you more about the Brazilian than any of his possible successors.   Header image courtesy of the Press Association