How Good Is Malcom?

Ah yes, we've approached the silly season that is the January transfer window, where the rumors are hot and heavy. One of the most talked about names this time around has been Malcom, the audacious winger who has been scoring golazos left and right this season. I talked a little bit about Malcom in late September when Bordeaux started the league strong and looked like a potential surprise package in Ligue 1 this season. Since then, both he and his team have slowed up somewhat.

Despite those issues, Malcom has had a solid season on a flawed team. His non-penalty goals + assists rate is 0.61 per 90, and his shot contribution (shots + key passes) per 90 rate of 5.14 is good too, especially for a 20 year old wide player in his 2nd full season in European football. Compare that to other wide players not from PSG (cause you know, playing on a super team can distort your numbers if you’re good enough), and he stacks up relatively well.

  • Memphis Depay: Minutes = 1295, NPG+A per 90= 0.83, Shot Contribution per 90= 5.07
  • Lucas Ocampos: Minutes = 960, NPG+A per 90 = 0.66, Shot Contribution per 90 = 3.94
  • Florian Thauvin: Minutes = 1606, NPG+A per 90 = 0.79, Shot Contribution per 90 = 6.61
  • Thomas Lemar: Minutes = 1020, NPG+A per 90 = 0.53, Shot Contribution per 90 = 4.50
  • Rony Lopes: Minutes = 1236, NPG+A per 90 = 0.44, Shot Contribution per 90 = 3.57
  • Malcom: Minutes = 1472, NPG+A per 90 = 0.61, Shot Contribution per 90 = 5.14

Considering that every other player mentioned here is at least a year older, it makes sense not to talk about Malcom on the level of Kylian Mbappe or Ousmane Dembele, but perhaps the level below alongside the likes of Yannick Carrasco during his 14–15 season or Bernardo Silva. That still equates to a very tantalizing prospect.

So we know that Malcom has been quantitatively good this year, but what about qualitatively? What are his strengths and weaknesses as a player?

Strengths:

If I were a team that was scouting Malcom, I would look at this sequence and get a little excited.

 

The ability to effortlessly beat his opponent in a 1v1 situation, and having the coordination to hit a fairly difficult pass while at top speed is not commonly seen. And this isn’t just a one-off, there's evidence to suggest that Malcom does a pretty decent job at finding teammates with these type of passes, whether it be in transition or against a set defense.

Obviously, you’d have to construct a plan where this type of talent would be used for the good for the team, but having such a dynamic playmaker in transition with players making runs off the ball would be a fun sight. He also profiles as a potentially good crosser, with his ability to hit passes both to the back post and the near side. Considering how dominant he is with his left foot when it comes to shooting, supplementing that with crosses from either foot adds value too.

One other thing that's fun about Malcom is how he gets the ball from one zone on the pitch to another

 

 

It’s fair to wonder how much value this would hold on a better team because there would be less opportunities for this type of sequence to occur, but even if so, there’s enough evidence to suggest that Malcom is good at beating his opponent in 1v1 situations in higher positions.

 

It’s easy to see why so many people are enamored with Malcom. Speed demons who flash the ability to be high level playmakers don’t exactly grow on trees, and when harnessed in the correct manner, you can see how he would be a genuine asset.

Flaws:

With inverted wingers, you’re always running the chance that the added freedom to cut inside will result in shots being taken from ineffective areas. There will be times where taking a 3–4% shot is the best option because there’s not even an option to recycle the ball to a nearby teammate and keep probing for another shot. As much as one can loathe the idea of settling for bad shots, there is a level of sympathy to be had for situations where you got nothing else but to take a bad shot and hope for the best.

But when your xG/shot is in the single digits, that excuse runs thin. To put it frankly, Malcom has bad shot discipline. The only reason why it’s not been talked about more often is because he’s converted 15% of his shots from outside the penalty area (4/27). And while people remember the goals, the misses stack up too:

Again, this is a little bit of a two way street. Bordeaux aren’t great in terms of presenting options for a player in possession, and with the burden that’s placed on him in attack, It's understandable that he’s going to probably be on the low end of shot quality on average. However, he could stand to cut around ~0.5 shots per 90 and perhaps redistribute it to someone else or even just improve his own shot selection. He faces the same problem that plagued Adam Ounas during his days at Bordeaux, where you felt that he was leaving stuff on the table by settling for bad shots.

With being fairly left footed dominant when it comes to his shooting, there might be situations where he can be shaded into less advantageous areas on the pitch. That’s easier said than done because his speed is overwhelming, and even if that does happen, he’s shown to be able to deliver passes on his right foot. Also, as much fun as it is to see Malcom drop deep and tries to advance the ball by himself, one could question how much he’ll get to do it on a team that has something resembling structure. That level of freelancing isn’t all that prevalent, so it’d be curious to see how a soloist would adjust to those situation. Perhaps leveraging his speed into more off-ball runs into the penalty box.

And then there’s obviously the question of whether Malcom would be able to do his defensive duties at a more demanding level if given a lesser role in attack. Nobody knows if that’s the case, but it’s something to keep an eye out on.

Valuation Discussion

We’ve already gone through what he can and can’t do at his current state. He’s an exciting player but has flaws too, and it could very well be that his solid results are masking the actual problems in the process. Saying that though, it wasn't totally surprising to see that Bordeaux are asking for as much as £50M considering that he's their crown jewel and his contract doesn't end until 2021.

To some extent, there’s a comparison to be made with Sofiane Boufal when he was at Lille. Both were pass first wingers, with an excellent first step + dribbling abilities to go along with their questionable shot selection. They both had to do the bulk of creation on the team because no one else was good enough to help out in that department. And the statistical comparison sort of makes sense.

  • Sofiane Boufal 2015–16: Minutes = 2351, NPG+A per 90 = 0.50, Shot Contribution per 90 = 4.67
  • Malcom 2017–18: Minutes = 1472, NPG+A per 90 = 0.61, Shot Contribution per 90 = 5.14

The comparison isn't foolproof. Boufal was compared to Eden Hazard when he broke through because of the vague similarities in playing style and the way they moved on the pitch, while Malcom’s pure speed and athleticism is on a higher level to go along with his ability to get the ball from one zone to another. Also, as bad as Malcom's shot selection has been, Boufal’s was even worse back in the day. Add to it that Boufal was 22–23 when he had his full season at Lille, whereas Malcom isn’t turning 21 until February. Perhaps by this time in 2019, there have been incremental growths in his game and he's a better rounded player. Malcom’s season so far has been better than Boufal, and Boufal went for a base fee around £16M. That was also in a climate that was far less silly than what we have currently. If 2015–16 Boufal was in today’s market, even with Lille’s awful financial situation at the time, he could’ve fetched more than he did.

Given all the information already provided, along with Bordeaux not being the strongest financially as a club, I would feel somewhat comfortable paying in the region of £25M. I would probably begrudgingly accept paying up to £30M if that included add ons or an agreement to keep him in Ligue 1 until the end of the season. Anything appreciably above that, and I would start looking at other options. Malcom has some special gifts with the effortlessness he has in getting by his marker, the fact that he is a left footed shooter in attack makes him something of a rarity in European football. and he’s still young enough to teach the value of shot discipline before it’s too late (Memphis at Lyon is the poster child for shot selection reclamation). While I'd be hesitant to say that he’s a potential world beater, there’s reason to think that there's high upside and he's young enough to learn and improve.

Where would the best place be for him? The likes of Arsenal, Manchester United, and Tottenham have been linked over the past week or so. Arsenal do have potential openings with Sanchez/Ozil being 6 months away from leaving on frees, but he’s nowhere near the playmaker that Ozil is, nor the high usage inside forward that Sanchez has been. Manchester United need a creative type on the wing and just as you get yourself excited at the idea of Malcom joining the attacking talent already in place, you remind yourself that Jose Mourinho is their manager and all those good vibes drift away.

Tottenham would probably be the best place out of the three clubs. It’s not the cleanest fit, and a fully functional Tottenham means that he would be a rotation member rather than a starter over the next year or so, but he’s someone who would represent one of their better chances at finding a high upside attacking player without having to guarantee him starter minutes or wages that would unbalance their current structure. There’ll be some who look at the likes of Georges-Kévin Nkoudou and Clinton N’Jie and do a reflexive gag at the idea of buying another Ligue 1 attacker, but that train of thought doesn't hold much water in this case. There wasn’t anything to suggest that Nkoudou was more than a tricky dribbler at Marseille, and N’Jie was an inside forward/second striker having to masquerade as a wide player at the time. N’Jie was in some way’s a poor man’s Son Heung-Min, but that role wasn’t available. Even with the flaws in his game, there's more evidence to suggest that Malcom would fit in better than either of those two did at the time, with his profile as a dynamic playmaker.

Malcom has been a productive wide player, and there are certain things he can do that get you excited about his potential. He is incredibly quick and at best can leverage his gravity as a threat into finding teammates with dangerous passes. He also probably needs to be coached even harder about the value of shooting in better areas, and being more efficient as a player. While not the absolute top tier prospect that Ligue 1 has seen over the past few years, he’s in the discussion at the next level, and is definitely one of the more intriguing ones.

Identifying Ligue 1's Next Breakout Talent: Houssem Aouar

The summer of 2017 was when big named players from Olympique Lyonnais left for greener pastures. Alexandre Lacazette finally made his long-awaited move to Arsenal, Corentin Tolisso left for Bayern Munich, Maxime Gonalons took his talents to Italy and signed for Roma. Even Rachid Ghezzal, a player who was equally as frustrating as he was brilliant, left for Monaco on a free transfer. While it might be a bit much to claim that this was going to be a new era, it was clear that there was a distinctly youthful approach occurring, with the club once again tapping into its famous academy along with the  youthful players they bought as replacements for the departed.

So far, it’s worked about as well as one could hope for. Lyon were never going to challenge for the title, but they sit 3rd in Ligue 1 with a massive goal differential at +21 and underlying numbers that for the most part look like what you would expect from a top three side in Ligue 1. It’s fair to say that they won’t continue shooting at a clip of 16.1% in open play (only PSG has a higher conversion clip) but they mostly project as a good side even if the goals start drying up. Nabil Fekir is back to his best and is doing the business, Mariano is shooting first and asking questions later, and their midfield has arguably been the best in Ligue 1 despite their main three contributors being 20 and under, which makes that even more impressive.

One of the members in that midfield is Houssem Aouar. While mainly a central midfielder, he’s shown versatility as to where he can play. He can be used as a deep midfielder in a double pivot, as the furthest forward midfielder in a trio, or even giving width as a wide man who can drift inside to help overlapping fullbacks. In a sense, his positional versatility is reminiscent of Tolisso, who was also able to play basically anywhere on the pitch and not be a hindrance to the team. Considering the circumstances he's dealing with and who he's replacing, Aouar has been as good as you could realistically expect from a 19 year old who’s logging regular minutes in a major league for the first time.

 

 

One thing that has helped Aouar is that whenever he’s part of a midfield trio, there’s a nice blend of talents for him to work with. Lucas Toussart has replaced Gonalons as the steady hand who can act as a water carrier if required, while Tanguy Ndombele does a little bit of everything. More importantly is that both of those players aren’t terrible with the ball at their feet, which helps considering that Lyon give off the feel of a club who win by talent more so than with a cohesive structure.

It can be argued that Aouar’s greatest trait is his dribbling and how he can make opponents look silly with little shakes and changes of direction. He is one of the better dribblers you’ll find in Ligue 1 when it comes to being able to maneuver in tight situations. In an era of football where space is becoming less and less available, players who can be hard to nudge off the ball are assets. Aouar profiles as someone who can potentially become something of a needle player: someone who can maintain the ball in dangerous areas despite being pressured by opponents.

 

I wouldn’t say that Aouar is fast but he can be intelligent with how he maneuvers himself and find space to work with. He’s someone who glides on the pitch more than he would zoom past people. When he plays with NDombele and Tousart, there are situations where he will try to break in through opposition lines and get himself into the penalty area. They don’t happen too often, but you see it here and there. When it does happen, he seems to be more comfortable making cutbacks towards open teammates and looking to set them up for solid opportunities.

 

 

If Aouar’s dribbling is his best attribute, not far behind is his ability to play defense splitting passes and he has been in an ideal situation for this development. Lyon constantly play 3 or 4 attackers with pace that have a solid first touch once they receive the ball. Whenever he's played in a double pivot or part of a midfield three, the pitch is stretched out it's allowing him options on the ball. In particular, he's developed a nice little chemistry with Memphis and Mariano where he will look for an audacious pass whenever either of them loses their marker.

 

For being only 5’7, he’s also a surprisingly decent tackler. He's dogged and to borrow a tired cliche, "gets stuck in".  You could imagine that in a team where there was more cohesion in terms of how to press with specific triggers, he would fit in. Considering how good is he with the ball at his feet, in a counter pressing system that prioritized transitions, he would be able to create scenarios both for himself and others.

 

 

With the way Aouar moves around and constantly tries to find space to work with, he can do a decent job in being part of scenarios where Lyon will have a man advantage so the ball could be progressed into dangerous areas.

 

 

I’m not sure Aouar profiles as a guy who will produce high expected goals per season when he’s in his prime, and that could potentially leave his contributions underrated. With how much he loves being on the ball and presenting himself as an outlet in deeper areas, his importance comes more so in progressing plays rather than finishing them with a shot for himself or others. He doesn’t shoot at high volume, and his locations haven’t been inspiring either. Even though his chance creation numbers are pretty good considering how many different positions he's played, they’re not spell binding. It's possible all this will improve over time and with more coaching but I also think that with him being 5’7, potential recruiters might try to stick him as a #10 and I’m not convinced he would be great in that role.

Houssem Aouar is only 19 years old, but he’s hit the ground running already at a decent team in a big league. At his best, he’s a magician with the ball and he’s not afraid to try and create big chances from deeper areas. The fact that he’s this young and is already looking like an above average midfielder says a lot about his possible upside once he hits his prime years.  Despite my apprehensions towards Bruno Genesio as a manager, he’s at a club that does like to promote youth at a steady pace and he’ll stand a better chance at being a consistent starter at Lyon over the next couple of years. The best compliment that could be given to him is that Lyon sold a great midfielder in Corentin Tolisso over the summer, and haven't seemed to have missed him.

Identifying Ligue 1’s Next Breakout Talent: Marcus Thuram

  With how things stand in Ligue 1 through nine weeks, Malcom has been the best attacking prospect in the league not named Kylian Mbappe. He’s been by far the most consistent player on a Bordeaux side that’s emerged as a prime candidate to sneak into the Champions League. He’s been electrifying as a dual shooting and creative threat, emerging as a genuine gamebreaker and in the process increasing the likelihood of a big club in Europe bidding for his services in the summer. After Malcom and Mbappe, things get murkier. There are a bunch of players who are arguably next best young attacker. Kids like Houssem Aouar and Adama Diakhaby have done well, but it’s been in more limited minutes than others. Francois Kamano has largely stayed the same from last season and didn’t make a leap like some had expected. Allan Saint-Maxamin has had his fleeting moments with Nice. Rony Lopes might be the best candidate, as he has taken over for Bernardo Silva and is having just as good a season as any of Silva’s years with Monaco. Ligue 1 is just brimming with young attackers. One name that belongs in that conversation is Marcus Thuram, who broke into Sochaux’s first team in Ligue 2 last season and currently plies his trade at Guingamp. Teams like Guingamp don’t usually have someone who could be considered a blue-chip prospect, but with every passing week that’s looking to be the case. Despite a pedestrian season in Ligue 2 last season, he’s been very good so far this season, alternating between playing as a lone striker or part of a striker duo alongside Jimmy Briand. Only seven players in Ligue 1 have contributed a greater amount of shots (shots + key passes) per 90 minutes in open play than Thuram’s rate of 4.80, and no player on Guingamp has a higher xG contribution rate. It's early days, but things are looking strong so far: The biggest reason for optimism with Thuram is the versatility in his game, the potential to be something of a unicorn as an attacker. He’s 6’2, strong like an ox, and could be used as a stereotypical target man. You can even see it with his shot distribution, with over 36% of his shots have come via headers. He’s got all the traits needed to be the type of player who you can play long balls to and hope he can box out his opponent so he can lay it off for upcoming teammates. But he’s also got the athleticism and skill set to played out wide when needed. In the Under-20 setup, he played for the French national team on the wings with his ability to beat out opponents via his trickery and burst. He’s just as comfortable being able to beat defensive lines with his timing and having passes come to him on the ground. There will even be times where he combines both: the ability to stiff arm a defender and blow past him. https://streamable.com/p4zws For a guy with a high center of gravity, Thuram has the ability to shift direction in 1v1 situations with feints and turns. It can look awkward at times seeing him be defended by guys who are half a foot shorter than him, nibbling at his feet. It can make for an awkward kind of scene where it’s almost akin to men versus boys out there, but it works more often than it doesn’t. https://streamable.com/ytzgk Guingamp this season have made him arguably their main focal point in their attack, an attack that’s right around average by numerous measures whether it be shots per game or average shot quality. It’s makes it more impressive that around 82% of his own shots have come inside the penalty area. However, despite that, Thuram’s shots haven’t been of the best quality. While Guingamp do have some credible talents on the squad (including another tantalizing attacking prospect in Ludovic Blas), it’s still a team that’s on the lower end in Ligue 1. Without a robust system that makes up for that, it’s left Thuram to take some pedestrian headers that xG models would rate as low quality chances: https://streamable.com/8udx5 Normally I’d be more concerned about a player that most models indicate is taking mediocre shots on average, but considering the circumstances going on and it’s still only less than 600 minutes, it could be put on the back-burner for a little longer. If there’s one place for improvement as a player it’s probably in his passing, which considering that he rating solidly in passing models, could potentially bode well for his future. Thuram’s only averaging around 19 passes per 90 mins so it’s not as if he’s being tasked as a high usage playmaker. It’s somewhat similar to what Alassane Plea was a couple of years ago when he was still transitioning into a central player; someone who can see a potentially high value pass but not necessarily having the requisite technique needed to make them on a consistent basis. https://streamable.com/7xq4p Having said all that, it hasn't been much of a problem so far. Out of all areas in his game, his passing is one where it would be curious to see what he looks like by seasons end when we gain a bigger sample of his work. What is Marcus Thuram’s ceiling as a player? That’s tough to say. Besides the fact that we have less than 2000 minutes of data between his time in Ligue 1 and 2, his type of archetype isn’t found too much in football. Guys who are 6’2 and can genuinely alternate between striker and winger aren’t exactly littered all over the place. At some point in their development, players like him probably would’ve been stuck at one position and not float between two. In some ways, you could make a broad and perhaps vague comparison to how Juventus have used Mario Mandzukic as an unorthodox winger who can beat up on small fullbacks in aerial duels. But even then, Thuram is blessed with pace that Mandzukic doesn’t possess even on his best days. I think there’s a chance that if Marcus Thuram hits the 90th percentile of his potential outcomes as a player, he could be a genuine force as a forward. We obviously know about the athleticism he has. While room for improvement exists in the passing department, he’s good enough to create chances for others at this stage of development whether it be crosses from the wing or headed layoffs, and he's not a hindrance during build up play. All his statistical indicators so far show him to be a more than capable attacking prospect on a team that at best would rate as a middle of the pack Ligue 1 side. He has grown accustomed to the forward position at a quicker rate than some expected, and he just gives off the feel that he belongs in the league, which is impressive considering his struggles in Ligue 2 previously. It's still very early days, but Marcus Thuram just might be the next great French forward in European football.

Bordeaux and the Chase for the Champions League

2017-18 in Ligue 1 was never going to be about a title race in France, because that was sewn up the minute PSG bought Neymar from Barcelona (and just to rub it in, they got maybe the best prospect in world football as well). Rather, where the intrigue in Ligue 1 came from was the cluster of six or so teams below PSG fighting for two Champions League spots. At least for this writer, there was a genuine curiosity about how the standings would shake out in positions 2 to 7 considering the massive changes that had gone on. After seven games where are we? Monaco have been fine despite selling the majority of their title winning squad, Lyon have produced attacking numbers that are quite middling compared to the talent at their disposal, while Marcelo Bielsa and Lille are Ligue 1’s travelling circus act.

Bordeaux were one of the teams that were mentioned in that block of six, an intriguing side that could have a high ceiling because of the attacking talent gathered over the past few windows. They are led by a respectable manager in Jocelyn Gourvennec, and on a mandate of sustainability by buying unheralded talents either inside the league or elsewhere. It’s allowed them to get a player like Nicolas De Preville, one of Ligue 1’s most underrated attackers over the past 3-4 years. Younousse Sankhare is a talented midfielder who can press individuals with his athleticism while providing off ball runs in the final third. Alexandre Mendy came in the summer for under €1M despite putting up relatively monster xG numbers at Guingamp (albeit nearly 50% of those minutes came as a substitute). This has been a carefully built squad on a tighter budget than others in Ligue 1.

It should be emphasized just how deep this team is in attack for a club that’s not having to play European football. Malcom and Kamano are givens in the 4-3-3 setup, but they have a rotating cast of characters that they could play in between them at striker with De Preville and Mendy. That’s not to mention Gaetan Laborde who was solid last year, and Jonatan Cafu who has been frisky in the limited minutes he’s played this year. That very well might be six competent to great players to work with over a full season.

The results so far have been largely impressive. Only PSG has a better total shot and expected goal ratio in the league, and there’s nothing exceedingly alarming with the performances put in. Sure, over the long term they’re probably not going to convert goals to shots on target at just over 37%. At the very least however, they have decent enough shot location to go along with healthy shot volume in a league that isn’t exactly renown for teams shooting over 14 times a match. There are worse foundations to have in attack than what Bordeaux have done so far this year.

While perhaps simplistic, one could say that the basis of Bordeaux’s attack is based on transition football. It’s a bit weird considering that this wouldn’t be considered a counter pressing team that uses pressure to create high quality chances the other way, and they don't give you the feeling that they're playing fast football, but it does seem like they’re able to capitalize on individual mistakes.

 

Bordeaux make this work by always having people commit on the counter, having as many or even more players going forward than the opposition have defending. This is where things like pushing Jeremy Toulalan into a CB position works great, because now you can have more mobile players who can catch up in the play along with the front three. It also takes advantage of Toulalan's passing sometimes being an outlet to get the pace quickened.

One thing I'm still wondering with Bordeaux is what is their best lineup within their 4-3-3 setup. On the one hand, De Preville is the best talent that they could put in striker considering his ability to both create for others and himself during his time at Reims and Lille. A slight worry is that considering how much he loves having the ball on his feet, and the same could be said for Malcom and Kamano, it could lead to possessions where it just ends up with them taking really bad shots with little movement to work with. I think having Mendy in there makes for a better fit because then you have a playmaker, an inside shooting forward, and a poacher (to go along with Mendy's ability to hold off the ball and let teammates come to the ball). There's a higher ceiling with De Preville in the lineup, but there's a higher floor with Mendy. It'll be interesting to see where this goes because Mendy has been a killer super sub so far.

A problem that could be made with how Bordeaux set up defensively is while they do have the ability to press in certain situations from a medium block, they are still quite susceptible to passes that break their defensive structure. Considering how much they rely on Sankhare to hurry opponents and get play going the other way, sometimes the opposition will drag him out and find openings in the midfield to pass into space and create semi dangerous opportunities.

Now the good news is that despite those concerns, there’s maybe only three teams in Ligue 1 who can really punish Bordeaux for these problems. And considering the issues Lyon have had so far in attack, it very well might be that only Monaco and PSG could punish a defensive system like the one Bordeaux have implemented. And in the context of merely just trying to finish in the top 3, that might well be good enough. So far this season, the results have been resolute. Only PSG, Montpellier, and Caen concede fewer shots per game and Bordeaux rank in the top three in quality of chances conceded. While the flaws of the system are evident, it might not mean much by season’s end.

We highlighted Francois Kamano as a player to watch coming into this season, someone who in a broad sense had a fine season last year. He shot a lot, and produced enough to make the math work in his favor. What I also found interesting about Kamano's game last year was he created high quality chances on average compared to the overall low amount of overall chances he put up. It was a poor man's version of what Ousmane Dembele did last year, and they both share a similar trait in which passing models don't exactly portray them in the greatest light because of their penchant for gambling on passes.

The real curiosity with Kamano was with better attacking talent to play with, would he be able to trade maybe 0.5-1 bad shots a game for something better, because while he's shown he is able to create premium chances for others, better shot selection from him could enable him to take the next step as a player. Good news: he's taking around 1 less shot per 90 minutes. Bad news: that hasn't exactly made his shot selection appreciably better.

Now I get it, he's 21 and there's time for him to figure this out. And it's still early in the season, but we're looking at just over 5000 minutes of game time in his Ligue 1 career and the evidence is showing that on average, the shots he takes are speculative at best. If this aspect of his game doesn't improve, it could very well be that we're already seeing the best of Francois Kamano as a player, and that would be a shame.

And then there’s Malcom, who’s arguably the crown jewel on this Bordeaux side. The yin to Kamano’s yang, he’s much more of a creator for others while probably having more functional athleticism than his teammate. He can shift and juke to beat defenders, use his acceleration when needing to get on the end of passes. Whereas Kamano is of the “shoot first and ask questions later” mentality, it’s almost frightening how much Malcom will try and create dangerous opportunities with his dribbling and passing. So far though, the results have been splendid as he’s been able to make something out of nothing with some of his solo runs:

Now you don’t need me to tell you about the problems that come with analyzing seven games without a considerable grain of salt, but it has to be said that so far into the season, Malcom has performed like one of the better creative wide men in Europe. If there ever was a “Leap in Progress” alarm, it would be ringing loud right now with what the kid is doing:

 

Again, it's a small number of games and this could very well be just a nice run of form and not truly representative of his true talent level as a player. But even if he’s somewhere between this current form and what he did previously, we’re still talking about a very talented creative winger who is still be three or so years away from hitting his prime. It could very well be that even a lesser version of Malcom would be good enough to help Bordeaux to make a genuine run at the top three.

In a similar manner to Nice last season, teams like Bordeaux need things to go their way if they’re to make a run at the top three in Ligue 1. The difference of budget compared to the likes of Lyon, Monaco and Marseille will always make it tough. In Nice’s case, it was a combination of breakout performances from the likes of Alassane Plea and Jean Micheal Seri and benefiting from the skills of Lucien Favre. With Bordeaux, it might need to be that Malcom in his second full season in France turns into a top 5-10 attacker in the league and incremental growth from players like Kamano and Mendy help bridge the gap for this season. Seven games in doesn’t make a season, and Bordeaux’s numbers will take a hit once they play the likes of PSG and Monaco. Even their first seven games could be nitpicked if needed; while holding Lyon to 8 shots and coming back from 3-1 was impressive, it was done while up a man for the majority of the match. And they were largely unimpressive against Lille when they were once again up a man. I'm also a bit skeptical of whether the front three can click long term, for all that they are talented. Even so, they potentially have six capable attackers, a mobile midfield that can assist in the transition football that they work best in, and a manager who smartly turned a static 4-4-2 setup last year into something greater.

Seven games in and so far so good. It might just end with Bordeaux's first trip back to the Champions League since 2010.

2017-18 Ligue 1 Season Preview

It’s kind of odd to write a season preview where PSG aren’t the defending champions. A lot of things had to fall in place for this to happen, mainly a certain Principality side scoring at a rate that we’ve almost never seen in the near decade’s worth of Opta data accumulated, but here we are, with Monaco having finally ended the stranglehold that PSG had for the past few seasons. They’ve fittingly spent the summer getting English teams to spend exorbitant amounts of money on their players, while the Kylian Mbappe saga rolls into August.

This season has the makings of something very interesting, in a somewhat similar way to how Premier League was looking like going into last season. While I don’t think there’s going to be a title race happening in France (unless Monaco have found the secret sauce to replicate their conversion rate, the likelihood of that being the case is zero), the other two Champions League spots could feature as much as five teams fighting for it. The five teams in question are:

  • Nice
  • Monaco
  • Lyon
  • Marseille
  • Bordeaux

I can’t remember the last time Ligue 1 had potentially six teams (PSG, obviously) go into a season where the idea of making the Champions League was at the very least not preposterous. Monaco and Lyon are probably in the boat where making the Champions League is their target, and anything else is disappointing. Marseille are itching to get themselves back into the top three for the first time since 2012-13, and have spent decent amounts of money in the process (who they’ve spent it on is a whole other story). Nice and Bordeaux would like to make the top 3, but getting into the Europa League wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world either.

So this is going to be your Ligue 1 Season Preview fix for the upcoming 2017-18 season; where the five teams mentioned above get dissected along with three players to watch for during the season, and an overall wrap up on what could be an exciting season in Ligue 1.

5 into 2 won’t go:

Monaco

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Monaco spent their summer selling their players for a shit ton of cash. Benjamin Mendy, Tiemoue Bakayoko, and Bernardo Silva left for ridiculous sums, and there’s still a chance of Kylian Mbappe leaving for a world record fee over the next few weeks. What Monaco have done is straight out of the Football Manager playbook: overachieve during the season and let the bids pile on for players on the squad.

Perhaps the greatest compliment that could be had for Monaco is that despite the departures, there’s still a lot of talent here, including Boschilla who produced great in the limited number of minutes he had in the league last year for all that it is fair to wonder how he’ll do after coming back from an ACL injury. Allan Saint-Maxamin could be good, and the fact he wasn’t utterly rudderless at Bastia is a good sign (he is the poster boy for fine tuning shot locations among wide forwards). Thomas Lemar is still there, and he could improve with more responsibilities too. Youri Tielemans is the perfect kind of player for Monaco to buy and potentially sell off for 3x the price. If Mbappe stays, Monaco should still finish no worse than 3rd. Things get considerably more dicey if he does leave during the window.

Nice

It’s our old friend Lucien Favre, who once again told expected goal models to go kick rocks as he led Nice to a surprising 3rd place finish last season. They were aesthetically pleasing and featured one of Ligue 1’s best strikers (when healthy) in Alassane Plea, a surprisingly frisky Mario Balotelli, one of the better creative midfielders in Jean Micheal Seri, exciting fullbacks and more. And it wouldn’t be a Favre led club if they didn’t massively overachieve relative to what models projected them based on xG or even basic shot metrics.

There’s still some things to like about Nice going into this season: Seri is at the peak of his powers as a midfielder and despite massive amount of rumors, he’s still at the club. Plea is also embarking on his prime years, though after a second major knee injury, it’s fair to wonder how bad his knees are and whether he could crack 2000+ minutes in a season again. Wylian Cyprien is a big time talent, though he also has major questions since he's returning from a torn ACL. Nice won't have Ricardo Pereira, as he's back at Porto after a widely successful two-year loan spell in France. Dalbert could also be gone if the rumors of Inter sniffing him out turn out to be true. Not having one of the best fullback combos is a big blow for the club.

Going into last season, I thought that Nice would struggle quite heavily and finish in mid-table. While I don’t think that’ll happen this time if Seri stays, I would still be shocked if they finish in the top 3 for a second straight season. But hey, Favre’s consistently told shot metrics to piss off in the past, so I could be wrong again.

Lyon:

Alexandre Lacazette is finally gone after summers of rumors, they sold one of the great young midfielders in Europe to Bayern in Corentin Tolisso, and veterans like Mathieu Valbuena and Maxime Gonalons are gone too. In their place are several high upside bets like Bertrand Traore, Mariano Diaz and Ferland Mendy, to go along with some players who are much closer.

Lyon are starting in a worse off position than at the same time last year, but they still have Memphis Depay and Nabil Fekir who are two of the best attackers in Ligue 1. If one of Traore or Diaz hit, you got yourself a very dynamic attack that could hold its own with anyone outside PSG. I’m not a big fan of their manager Bruno Genesio, but there’s still enough parts remaining to be cautiously optimistic.

Marseille:

If gambling is your thing, you’ve probably noticed that Marseille in some places have the third best odds to make the top 3 in France. Name cache + new owners + money spent in the summer + top 5 finish last year; those variables in some form explain the odds trickling out in the way that they have.

The argument in favor for Marseille doing well this season goes as follow:

  • Dimitri Payet will be there for a full season, and the Veledrome was where he arguably had his best season in 2014-15
  • Florian Thauvin had his best season as a pro last season, and unlike Hatem Ben Arfa in 2015-16, he’s only 24 so he has a better chance of replicating that form once again
  • Rudi Garcia will also be there for the start of the season, and the upgrade to him from Franck Passi is real.

Even with all those things taken into consideration, I’m very skeptical of what the club looks like. Dimitri Payet is 30 years old and there’s a good chance Marseille already had his best year as a player in 2014-15. Valere Germain is a nice enough forward although he’s turning 28. Luis Gustavo is 30, Adil Rami is turning 32 in December, Patrice Evra is 36. Marseille have created a squad where they are relying on a lot of old players doing the job for them, with youngsters like Morgan Sanson and Maxime Lopez giving them the young dynamism as a supplement. It’s not the greatest way of spending resources.

Bordeaux

I’m not saying that this will definitely be the case, but there’s a chance that Alexandre Mendy becomes one of the best value plays of the summer window across Europe. One thing to monitor with Mendy is that 47% of his minutes last season came as a sub which puts his monster shot and xG numbers into some question. It’s somewhat reminiscent of Michy Batshuayi’s first year at Marseille when he was second in command behind Andre Pierre Gignac. But even if (and probably when) his numbers take a hit, 700K for potentially a solid striker at age 23 is marvelous stuff.

I quite like this team. I liked them last year to possibly finish in the top 4, and their second half run that was influenced by changes in the makeup of their squad showed the potential that they had. Assuming reasonable health, they have the fire power to contend with players like Mendy, Francois Kamano, Diego Rolan, Gaetan Laborde. Recent history in Ligue 1 suggests that a team like Bordeaux will have it hard to finish in the top 3 unless something goes right for them (overperformance, one of their young players make the leap), but Nice did it last season and of all the teams to make a shock top 3 finish, Bordeaux probably have the squad best equipped to do so.

Bonus: Lille

I wouldn’t be doing my job here if I didn’t mention Lille, who are embarking on one of the great projects in European football. They’re bankrolled by new owner Gerard Lopez (who nearly became Marseille’s owner) who has lots of money and owns a Formula 1 team. They brought over Luis Campos, who’s the new sporting director and helped get talents like Bernardo Silva and Tiemoué Bakayoko to Monaco, and the club have spent the summer spending ~£30M on Brazilian talent. Perhaps the real story though is them hiring Marcelo Bielsa as their manager. Bielsa’s record is well known; a genius who makes teams considerably better initially, but burns bridges and leaves his clubs in a blaze of glory. Considering how much input he’s having here, this might be the one place where he doesn’t set the place on fire by year two.

It’s such a weird squad that they have currently but one that has potential to do something of note. No European football is a bonus, and Marseille in 2014-15 nearly made the top 3 that year because of that advantage. There is attacking talent there with the likes of Nicolas Pepe, Anwar El Ghazi, Nicolas De Preville. If the Brazilian contingent of Thiago Maia, Thiago Mendes and Luiz Araujo work out in some form, you’ve got the makings of something really cool happening. All things being equal, this team need a bunch of things to go their way for them to finish in the top 3 this year, and the club themselves have targeted 2018-19 as the season to finish in the CL. But exciting times are happening there, and you should make out some time in your schedule for potential Bielsa madness (both good and bad).

Three Players to Watch: Yann Karamoh:

You don’t find a lot of 18-year-old players who finish in the top 25 in a good league when it comes to xG contribution, especially when said player is reportedly available to be had at ~€10M. Karamoh wasn’t Mbappe or Ousmane Dembele; the type of supernova talent that made big clubs take notice with their wallets, but he produced decently enough on a below average side at Caen.

His contract runs out next year and there’s almost zero chance Caen don’t cash in on a transfer fee for him in some shape or form, whether it be now or having him sign a deal with an agreement for him to leave at a future transfer window. Regardless, the kid’s promising and it would be interesting if he did move up the division to a team like Monaco, who do have a track record of playing young players recently. He could be the next one in a long line of exciting French talents

Allan Saint-Maxamin:

I have a working theory with attacking players who play for Bastia: If you can at least not be awful, you’re probably going to grade out as a decent Ligue 1 player, and perhaps even better than that. Over the past few years, the list has been growing:

  • Florian Thauvin
  • Ryad Boudebouz
  • Anthony Modeste
  • Francois Kamano
  • Wahbi Khazri
  • Giovanni Sio
  • Claudio Beauvue

On raw ability alone, Saint-Maxamin oozes potential. He’s got speed to burn, can dribble past anyone, and has great hair. His numbers weren’t great last year, in fact they were quite grizzly. But Bastia were terrible last year and have been bad for a while, so he could easily have just been in a bad situation for himself. Plus, at least for now he looks to be sticking with Monaco for the season and with some of the departures, he stands to get some minutes. With talented teammates and a good manager, perhaps he might create more of these opportunities on a regular basis.

 

 

Francois Kamano:

Perhaps the most intriguing of the three mentioned. Kamano took a lot of shots last season, especially from open play. In fact, the only wide players per 90 minutes to take more shots than him who played at least 900 minutes were Memphis Depay and Angel Di Maria. Unlike Memphis, whose overall statistical profile ranks him among the elite attackers in Europe, Kamano isn’t close to that. It’s not to say that he’s bad per se. His overall shot contribution (shots + key passes) rank him in the top 20 in France. Expected Goals + Assists rank him decently enough in the top 25-30 as well. He’s a fine winger who’s still young at 21 years old and probably is about two or so years from his peak.

Very much like Adam Ounas, who caught the eye well enough to land a transfer to Napoli, shot locations are what’s keeping him from getting to that next level. Simply put, Kamano takes a lot of bad shots, which hinders his overall impact as a player.

 

In some ways, it’s a bit reminiscent of Memphis Depay before his half season resurgence with Lyon, albeit Kamano is not nearly as all encompassing a force as Depay was at PSV. As it turned out, playing with a lot of talented attacking players was the best thing to happen for Depay, and since Bordeaux have some nice pieces in their squad, maybe Kamano could cut out some of these low-quality shots from his repertoire.

 

There’s potentially a very nice player here; not necessarily a world-beater, but one that could attract a serious offer from a bigger club in a future transfer window.

Final Thoughts:

2017-18 has the promise of being a fun season in Ligue 1. There’s not going to be a title race, especially if the rumors of Neymar going to PSG become finalized. However, everything below could be lots of fun: Bielsa’s back, we get a full year of Memphis + Fekir, the retirement home at Marseille trying to buck father time, the kids at Monaco that still remain.

Ligue 1 has become an attractive league over the past few years because of the volume of exciting young talents that are present and getting significant minutes, and this season doesn't seem to be any different. Players like Houssem Aouar at Lyon, Martin Terrier at Lille, and Marcus Thuram at Guingamp could all shine and become bonafide prospects. And then there's talents like Maxime Lopez at Marseille, who's only 19 years old but already looks like a genuine talent and could become a dynamite creative midfielder in the not too distant future. The faith in youngster's to make mistakes and grow from them is perhaps the greatest calling card that the league has. Find time in your schedule. Big talents of the future reside within and even if you just want to watch world stars doing their thing PSG have you covered there. It's should be a good one.

Top 6 Prediction

  1. PSG
  2. Monaco
  3. Lyon
  4. Bordeaux
  5. Marseille
  6. Lille

Identifying Ligue 1's Next Big Breakout Talents #4: Alassane Pléa

Here is Alasanne Pléa’s 2016-17 season:

  • Only Edinson Cavani and Memphis Depay this season attempted more open play shots per 90 minutes with at least 900 minutes played in Ligue 1
  • Depending on the model being used, Alassane Pléa was somewhere between the top 5-10 in xG per 90 minutes in Ligue 1
  • He was the only attacking player on Nice to have not overperformed or even met xG numbers

You can see why Premier League teams in January were considering bidding for Pléa. 24-year-old strikers who produce like that and aren’t already with super expensive clubs don’t exactly grow on trees. Add in that he passes the smell test in terms of athleticism and you’ve got yourself quite the tantalizing forward. Truth be told, I was somewhat skeptical of Alassane Pléa coming into this season. Some of why I was skeptical could be seen here. My main issue was having that nagging feeling that Ben Arfa’s one year renaissance + Germain’s unselfish movements made life for him considerably easier and that those two leaving him would have a knock-on effect. It wouldn’t mean that he’d suddenly fall off the face of the earth, but the most likely scenario would’ve been a slight decrease in his numbers from having to shoulder more of the burden in attack. I also wasn’t quite factoring in the chances of him becoming a much more centralized player, which would hide some of the lack of dynamism he had on-ball.

As it turned out I was wrong, in fact I was dead wrong. Jean Michael Seri had a really good season as a playmaking midfielder, with him and Pléa developing nice chemistry together. Mario Balotelli was fine in the minutes that he and Plea played together, which allowed him to develop even more. You combine that with his natural growth in the striker position--higher volume of shots along with better shot quality--and what you come up with is one of the best forwards in Ligue 1 who if you need him to, can also still play spot duty on the right-hand side.

Last year it could be argued that Alassane Pléa played like a wide forward who could interchange positions and play as a center forward, whereas this season Pléa’s movements and declined on-ball usage much more resembled your typical center forward. This was especially evident in the matches where he wasn’t playing with Balotelli. This isn’t to say his game last year resembled an all action inside forward like say Memphis Depay, but even looking at basic stuff like dribbles or throughballs shows a noticeable change as he was tasked more to create for others:

 

 

This year, it’s been different. With so much of the playmaking being tasked to Seri and others, he’s been allowed to be more of a predator, working off the shoulders of center backs and attacking openings with his speed. On the face of it it’s just a simple switch, but it’s one that turned him from a below average shot-maker who had a fairly pedestrian xG per shot of ~12%, to one where he much more resembled a shot-taker.

 

 

In a sense, what he’s done this year is somewhat reminiscent of the evolution that Alexandre Lacazette went through between 2014-17; both transitioned into being a centerback’s worst nightmare. Comparing the two today; Lacazette is a better player because he’s just a more fluid attacker in buildup and more adept at getting his own shot off. Particularly the thing that pushes Lacazette over the top in this comparison is his supreme ability to seal off defenders and either spin into open space after receiving the ball or lay it off for a teammate.

But the Lacazette we know today wasn’t the same one at age 24. Sure, he had some of the traits that would turn him into the player that Arsenal are reportedly set to pay a club record fee for, but it would take a couple of more seasons before it led to being a consistently top notch xG contributor. In that sense, one could argue that Pléa at 24 is a better prospect than Lacazette was at that age.

Judging by expected assists or key passes, Alassane Pléa would rank lower on the totem pole for strikers. And I’m not going to say that he’s a brilliant playmaker for a center/wide forward, but I do think he’s fine in the sense that he can make passes that can get his team into advantageous areas on the pitch. On a team with already established playmakers, having a striker who can at least do stuff like this is an asset.

 

 

 

If you had to put me on the spot and ask what is Alassane Pléa’s best spot in the pitch, I would say through the middle, which wasn’t something I would’ve said going into this season. I just think he’s more of an impactful player when he’s concentrating on getting on the end of throughballs and finishing chances. If you structured a team where as a wide forward, all he’d have to do is provide width and make runs, then that’s a different case and he would be a worthwhile gamble. I just think that asking him to be anything resembling high usage with the evidence we’ve seen of him is not getting the best out of him.

So how much will Alassane Pléa cost a club? Well that’s a bit hard to pin down. Technically, Ligue 1 doesn’t allow for release clauses to exist but more clubs are getting past that legality, and reports suggest that Pléa’s got one in the region of €50M. Nice just qualified for the Champions League and combine the funds they’ll get from that along with the probable sale of Seri for big money and the Chinese takeover in ownership, there isn’t the need for Nice to sell. Having said that, what could depreciate his value a bit is that he’s had two major knee injuries over the past two seasons, and he could well be at risk in the future to sustain another one. He had an ACL injury that knocked off four months in 2015-16, and lost the back end of 2016-17 to another knee injury. You don’t have to be a doctor to figure out that repeated trauma to your knees doesn’t exactly scream confidence of avoiding future injuries, but that’s just making an educated guess. Teams that are looking to buy him will get the medical reports and determine whether these two injuries are immediate red flags.

Let’s assume a world where Alassane Pléa has his age 24-29 year uninterrupted by serious knee injuries, what teams would be the best fit for him? One place that could’ve been fascinating was a return to Lyon as a potential replacement for Alexandre Lacazette, though the purchase of Bertrand Traore and the probable asking price from Nice makes the fit considerably more difficult. It’s kind of a shame because the prospects of an attacking core featuring Memphis, Pléa, Traore, and Nabil Fekir as a backup plan for Lacazette’s departure would’ve been grand. For now, we could probably label this as unlikely, even with the scattering of reports that had Bruno Genesio making him a priority this summer.

In England, Southampton could be an intriguing place for him because in many ways he’s the actualized version of what Claude Puel tried to do with Nathan Redmond when he tried to convert him into a secondary striker. The two could work very well together since they’re both capable passers who could interchange positions on the pitch because of their athleticism. He’d also alleviate the worries of what would happen if Gabbiadini got hurt for an extended period because the two aren’t dissimilar in playing style. Again, the worry here isn’t so much in terms of fit as much as whether he’s over their price range, even with them just raking in £122M in Premier League funds in 2016-17. It’d be much of a Southampton move if they instead targeted someone like Yann Karamoh from Caen; who’s only 18 years old, has one year left on his contract, and has shown signs of possibly being a very good forward soon.

There are other places for him to go to in England if it’s not Southampton. Arsenal need forwards and certainly have the money, though the increasing likelihood of Lacazette going there means if they still wanted to get him, it’d probably be more so as a wide forward more so than a striker. Pléa does fit some of the requirements that Arsenal look for: pace, shot location discipline, and not having two cinder-blocks for feet in the passing department, and they could use Pléa in a role not so dissimilar to what Theo Walcott was at his apex. Numerous jokes have been made about West Ham’s continued search for a center forward, and their interest in January probably indicates the search hasn’t ended. On strictly pure need this makes the most sense and West Ham certainly can pay the big money it would probably take to get him, but my level of trust in West Ham putting together a cohesive midfield to accentuate the best parts of Pléa's game isn't exactly high.

Alassane Pléa has turned himself into a very solid player in Ligue 1 despite being a late bloomer of sorts, having just completed only his third season of over 1000 league minutes at age 24. He’s increased his shot load from last year and simultaneously improved his shot location as well. His ability to operate in tight areas has improved, his passing is fine, and combined with his ample athleticism makes him a good player that's embarking on the prime years of his career. We don’t know if the knee injury that ended his season took something out of him, and if anything, that’s the biggest worry. He's certainly worth monitoring through next season, and with health, at 25 could still represent a good purchase. Once again, we find Ligue 1 to be housing high quality talent and the path from France to Europe's bigger clubs is well trodden. Pléa could well be one of the next guys to make the switch.

_________________________________

This is part four of a series, check out the first three parts:

#1 Corentin Tolisso

#2 Thomas Lemar

#3 Kylian Mbappe

Identifying Ligue 1’s Next Big Breakout Talents #3: Kylian Mbappe-Lottin

Truth be told, this project could be based solely on prospects from Monaco. Out of all clubs in France, Monaco are the one most stocked with high upside youngsters. We’ve gone in depth over Thomas Lemar, Bernardo Silva has been one of the most entertaining players in the league since arriving in 2014, Benjamin Mendy is an athletic and creative LB while their midfield has workhorses in Fabinho and Tiemoué Bakayoko who can also do accomplished things on the ball. The last couple of years have seen Monaco cultivate an immensely exciting batch of young players, with others that can barely sniff any game time.

It’s almost a rite of passage for young attackers in France to at one point in their development be compared to Thierry Henry. We’ve seen it with the likes of Alexandre Lacazette and Anthony Martial when they broke into Ligue 1, and currently the next one in line is Kylian Mbappe-Lottin. The man has been scoring or assisting bucket loads of goals on a Monaco team that’s on pace for a remarkable 111 goals this season. It's unlikely they will keep up this pace til season’s end, but he’s been an exciting part of the preeminent Ligue 1 goal scoring machine.

One thing you notice with Mbappe-Lottin in the Monaco setup is frequently he doesn’t have to do much when it comes to taking on defenders and creating attacks for himself. A lot of that work is done by the likes of Lemar and Silva, so he’s not had to do much dribbling this season unless he has found himself with 10 yards of space. Consequently a lot of the things he does revolve around working off the blind spots of centre backs. He is usually stationed in the left half space when Monaco approach the final third because of how high up the fullbacks operate. When that doesn’t happen, he tends to move to the left wing and will hug the touchline and wait for a teammate to link with.

Something that could help Mbappe-Lottin down the line is that he doesn’t lack the confidence to take shots with his weaker left foot, and that two-footedness could allow him to have a fairly scarce advantage in terms of creating shots inside the area. This is more anecdotal than quantitative since 76% of his shots are coming from his right foot, but there’s immense value to having an attacking player who can’t be shaded a certain way by the opposition.

The one move he does have that reminds you of Henry is combining both his ability to find space in between the left back and left centre back--whether in build up play or in non-structure scenarios--and his raw pace.

It is not hard to understand why so many people are salivating at Mbappe-Lottin’s potential. Strikers at his age who have this kind of rough outline get hyped to the moon and when you add in that he is already showing good decision making plus some noted passing chops, we find very tantalizing prospect.

It does help that he plays in such a fluid team that allow many passing options, particularly playing with Silva who can present himself as a crossing option despite his rather diminutive size. Previous iterations of Monaco were never this smooth offensively and I do wonder how Mbappe-Lottin would fit in on less fluid sides. Plus, this version of Monaco has speed and quickness to kill at so many positions where others didn’t.

As the most recent breakout star from Monaco, comparisons between Anthony Martial and Mbappe-Lottin have been made, both in an athletic physical sense and that their breakout seasons occurred at the age of 18-19. This is purely subjective but I still think Martial was a better prospect when he left Monaco in 2015 compared to Lottin now but when Martial left, he was about a year older than Mbappe-Lottin so it could very well be that I’ll be singing a different tune by next winter.

For the most part Monaco have been protecting Mbappe-Lottin and matches he has heavily featured in have been ones against lower opposition. To date, these are the teams that he’s played at least 45 minutes against in Ligue 1 this season:

  • Montpellier (x2)
  • Saint Etienne
  • Lorient
  • Caen
  • Bastia
  • Metz

This is a smart play from Monaco. They’re allowing Radamel Falcao and Valere Germain to suck up the majority of minutes while still giving enough time for Mbappe-Lottin to potentially beat up on worse teams, which he’s done extraordinarily well.

It’s the type of strategy that more teams should use with young talents but it does make me sound a small note of caution against his nonetheless impressive outputs. Maybe it’s just a negligible amount but it's hard to exactly quantify a prospect who has been sheltered to this degree. Caen, Metz, Lorient and Bastia are terrible, and both Montpellier and Saint Etienne grade out as mid-table sides both in their underlying performances and just the general amount of talent in their squad.

Also, Mbappe-Lottin is just overshooting all his metrics in general, which basically every attacking player on Monaco is doing this season. His NPG per 90 rate is around double his xG per 90 and though the shot quality has been very good considering both his age and his shot rate, it still can’t be denied that a portion of his output looks like it is being pushed by variance. We can also see that he is yet to get the really solid up close central chances that fuel top strikers' goal tallies. That he is working alongside Falcao this season could well be a huge benefit to his learning here.

Mbappe 2

Given all the information above, we can start to ask the following questions about Kylian Mbappe-Lottin:

  • Is the kid a good prospect?
  • Is the kid a knockout prospect?

The answer to the first question is obviously yes. His xG+A per 90 rates him with the best strikers in France this season and is among the highest in the 18-22 age group of Ligue 1 players over the past few years. He’s shooting a lot as well and physically looks like he’s holding up just fine. He’s much closer to Kelechi Iheanacho than he is Marcus Rashford on the spectrum of teenage goal scoring strikers. And he's just 18. That he is even on the pitch in a decent team at this age is a huge indicator in itself.

In terms of the second question, I’m not prepared to say yes quite yet. In my three years of extensively watching Ligue 1, I’ve seen three under-22 attacking players who I thought were absolute Grade A talents: Ousmane Dembele, Anthony Martial, and Nabil Fekir. I just think there’s enough questions with Mbappe-Lottin that he’s not quite at the same stratosphere as these three and between some team effects and mad variance on Monaco's attack, he's been ideally positioned to prosper. Compare this to Dembele who was just doing everything and anything for a mediocre Rennes side or even Martial on a Monaco team that wasn’t nearly as fluid in their attacking structure.

I know some of this article will come out as me being Buzz Killington about Mbappe-Lottin and I’m really trying not to sour on this kid’s potential but rather be cautiously optimistic. Whether you care for Ligue 1 or not, it’s still probably the 5th best league in the world and is having the most competitive season since 2014-15.

If you can hold your own as an attacking player in a decent league at such a young age, you probably have a bright future and he’s doing that already. Mbappe-Lottin has been very productive this year in the minutes he’s played and if his underlying numbers are a genuine indicator of his true talent level, then the surreal hype around him could well be justified. There's a long way to go--and scoring on his first visit to England will do no damage to the hype around him--but he also has a lot in his favour, and could well still turn out to be Monaco’s finest forward prospect since Thierry Henry.


This is part three of a series on promising players in Ligue 1: Part 1: Corentin Tolisso Part 2: Thomas Lemar

Identifying Ligue 1's Next Big Breakout Talents #2: Thomas Lemar

There have been two different versions of Monaco ever since money was pumped into the club a few years ago: the first iteration was the wheeling dealing one where they tried to outspend PSG, looking to become a continental power in the process behind pseudo global stars. Obviously, this strategy had massive flaws and quickly they reverted to their current iteration which has consisted of of buying young and selling high and mixing that alongside some later peak age players. And for the most part, it’s been a successful reboot. Monaco have been good in two of the last three seasons, highlighted by a Champions League run in 2014-15 and their current domestic title push. Sure, there could be legitimate quibbles about just how good Monaco really are, but they’re clearly the 2nd best team in the suddenly competitive Ligue 1.

One of the guys who symbolizes the new age Monaco project is Thomas Lemar. Bought at only £3M in the summer of 2015, he was part of Monaco’s first attempt at buying a ton of youngsters and hoping a couple of them would hit big. We’ve already profiled him previously on the site as the type of talent that could be had for relatively cheap but those days are probably gone. He first broke onto the scene as part of that weird Caen side that were known for one gear and that was blistering counter attacks, something that suited him well. The first thing you notice with Thomas Lemar is just how shifty the man can be, especially in the middle of the pitch. He doesn’t quite have the top end speed nor the sheer amount of tricks in his repertoire of say Ousmane Dembele, but he can definitely skip past 1 or 2 players with some level of comfort by using his low center of gravity to his advantage. This was evident when he got his opportunity at Caen two years ago and still is now on a Monaco side that play almost diametrically opposite.

 

 

With the way Monaco set up in their two striker system, the fullbacks on either side like Benjamin Mendy and Djibril Sidibe occupy the width so it can allow players like him and Bernardo Silva to occupy the half space areas so they have a number of options. When the buildup play begins, the 4-4-2 can suddenly turn into 3-5-2/3-1-4-2 with the two creative engines stationed as nominal midfielders, a back three consisting of the CBs + Fabinho, and the fullbacks basically playing as wingers.

 

Lemar 4

 

There are multiple ways for players to break defensive lines. Generally, you could classify it through either passing (see: Julian Weigl) or dribbling (see: Mousa Dembele). Lemar is closer to the latter than the former. A lot of times he’ll position himself for a pass in a way that will allow him to gain a head of steam. Often it works because by the end, Monaco can transition to the next stage of their attack.

Where I find Lemar most exciting though is whenever Monaco transition into counter attacks. Because of how central his positioning is, when Monaco want to turn it loose, Lemar can become part of the action. He has the technical ability to make the difficult passes that really open up an unorganized opposition and even when he’s not directly involved, he occupies the correct spaces so that he can receive the ball and keep the counter going.

On a team with pacier strikers, these types of sequences could lead to throughball opportunities which would be an even deadlier asset to Lemar’s game. For a guy who’s first instinct is to dribble, his decision making is decent and he generally knows when he has to end his dribbling sequences and pass it to a nearby teammate. If he could add occasional throughballs to his game it would raise the ceiling on how good a prospect he is because it makes him even more versatile as an option, and it compliments his ability to connect on crosses and long balls from deeper areas.

You add all of this together alongside capable set piece abilities and what you have is an interesting package. He’s got the speed and acceleration of your typical winger, but his dribbling works best in the middle of the park, which is something you expect more so from central midfielders. His statistical outputs mirror this as it portrays an unorthodox talent:

 

Lemar 2 Lemar 1

 

One of the worries with Lemar is he’s just not anywhere close to a potent shot taker. It’d be one thing if he was such a high-level creator that he was tipping the scales massively in his favor regardless, but he’s not quite that. To this point he’s been fine as a playmaker and that’s been the case since his days at Caen, but if you top out as something resembling a solid creator with middling shot numbers, there’s probably a ceiling to how good you’ll as a player. A team thinking of buying Lemar in the near future with much more information to go through has to think critically of this. If you’re expecting him to be the type of attacking player to regularly contribute towards 15-20 goals, at this stage of his development I would be very hesitant as he’s over shooting all his expected goal numbers (both shooting and creating) by nearly double. However if you imagine him as someone who can contribute towards say ten to twelve goals but be super important in being able to create transition opportunities or simply moving the chains from the defensive third to the final third through his dribbling and passing, then that’s a different case and he could definitely perform that type of role.

Player development a lot of times isn’t a linear progression when you go from young talent -> good -> very good and perhaps I’m underrating what 24-year-old Lemar will be. He is still an intriguing prospect, quite young and doesn’t turn 22 until November. While players on average peak around their mid 20s, this is by no means fixed. All we can control is the process and make educated guesses going forward, and to this point, I’m just not willing to put him in the realm of former Ligue 1 prospects like Dembele, Anthony Martial and pre-ACL tear Nabil Fekir where as a big club you would not think twice about splurging money for potentially world class players. He rarely gets himself into opportunities that he can shoot, and when he does it’s not like the shot quality is anything to boast about. In a more attacking role, does he grow into that or will he long term be more of a cog behind more natural attackers?

Don’t get me wrong, Lemar will make Monaco a huge profit when he inevitably moves on from France. His ability to drive his team into the final third with his dribbling is an asset, he has the athletic ability to survive in a higher-octane league, he’s got a wicked left foot for set pieces/crosses and he’s a capable passer. He seems an interesting fit for teams that have somewhat unconventional ways of creating attacks, especially ones that like to have a wide player that can drive play through the middle. In many ways, the variance that’s driving his high goal and assist per90 clip obscures what makes Thomas Lemar a genuine prospect, and it will be in the best interest of his next club to sort out that noise from reality.

Identifying Ligue 1's Next Big Breakout Talents #1: Corentin Tolisso

It’s been a weird season for Lyon. They were tipped by some to be Ligue 1’s only challenger for PSG behind a well stocked attack full of youngsters and prime age talents. That hasn’t been the case and their season has been full of stops and starts, involving injuries and drastically changing formations. For every good performance, they have had (particularly earlier in the season), there have been equally confounding ones. Despite a statistical resume that should have them comfortably in the top three, they’re currently eight points behind PSG for 3rd place (with a game in hand) and there’s a real chance Lyon will lose out on a coveted Champions League spot.

Not everything has been a disappointment with Lyon though, and perhaps the biggest bright spot is their burgeoning young midfielder Corentin Tolisso. Truth be told I’ve been an admirer of his talents for a while now and what’s been fascinating has been his emergence as a creative midfielder. All his expected goal  (and assisted) rates have been on the rise and that’s mirrored his rise in scoring contribution.

 

Tolisso 1

 

Tolisso 2

 

Tolisso 3

If you asked me why a team should consider buying this guy during the summer transfer window, this would be my response

 

It’s literally everything you would want in a modern central midfielder right? The ability to cover passing lanes and anticipate an interception opportunity, being able to accomplish it while controlling the ball smoothly and in one motion pick out an extremely high value opportunity for a poacher like Alexandre Lacazette. There are a lot of other things to like about Tolisso but his ability to make this type of pass is notable.

Besides his throughball passing, the next great trait of Tolisso’s game can be seen in his flexibility, particularly in the minutes that he’s logged at more advanced positions. His overall shot volume this season has increased and that’s allowed him to be a bigger threat going forward. With the mobility he possesses, and his ability to play a variety of attacking passes, he can get into spaces to try and feed his strikers.

 

All things being equal, I’m not totally convinced you can play him in advanced positions for long durations of the season. As a midfielder one of the things he loves to do is to drop very deep to receive the ball, and even while playing as a number ten of second striker, he continued this habit. Some of it was probably due to how bad buildup was for Lyon during their stretch of matches when they played with a back three/five, as a lot of times the ball wasn’t progressing unless Tolisso dropped deep to become something resembling an outlet (It is a testament to his abilities that even when things look unstable, he can create shooting opportunities).

 

 

One potential theory is with the steady rise in his shot numbers, a team could sign him and create an attacking structure where Tolisso would make more off-ball runs to get into shooting opportunities. An obvious comparison would be Dele Alli. No Tolisso doesn’t have the same penchant for nutmegging every living organism on the pitch, but they both do share the ability to pop up within 20 yards of goal and present themselves as a shooting threat. Now Alli is a considerably more polished version, his dribbling abilities are markedly greater and he’s perfected the “sprint your ass off-ball to get on the end of a header” routine, but if you squint hard enough, there is a little bit of merit to this

 

 

Tolisso 1 Alli

 

Push comes to shove, Tolisso’s best position for now is as a central midfielder with some  license to roam. He’s grown up with having ball playing responsibilities and the threat of the home-run ball from deep is too good a tool to pass up in comparison to his shot taking abilities. There’s also the little things he does deeper in midfield that could help a team in attack. Like how after Lyon regain possession from something resembling a counterpressing action, he’ll look for a quick transition pass to get his team progressing into dangerous areas.

 

Having strong buildup structure more times than not is helpful in developing waves of good attacks. Having good structure allows teams to space out the pitch to where they can constantly have a man advantage in dangerous areas. You’ll see this with Tolisso quite a bit where he’ll migrate into areas to help his teammates turn weird 2v2’s into more conventional 3v2’s. He’s also quite adept at migrating into vacated spaces so he can receive the ball and run to find an open teammate. These are all just little things but all together add up to a player who plays at times as if he’s 27 and not 22.

The one weakness in Tolisso’s game is he just doesn’t have much spark as a dribbler. It’s not a major weakness and he does make up for this with an adept mind for finding space. There’s also this to keep in mind; Ligue 1 isn’t a league known for teams pressing each other as most defensive actions are taken care of on the touchlines. Moving to Germany or to a lesser extent England would change this equation. You could see scenarios where teams would give Tolisso much less space to work with and having to evade an opponent with a quick turn would be more essential to unlock his passing gifts. Does he have the juice to do this constantly? I’m not quite sure, but he’s still very young and under the right coach this could be worked on substantially.

Only 22 years old, Tolisso has the makeup to be a very impacting central midfielder. He’s already displayed the ability to be versatile whether being the Doberman of the three-man midfield or in his current incarnation as an attacking hub within a double pivot. He even managed to hold his head above water in parts of 2014-15 as a right back when injuries forced Lyon’s hand. This season he’s increasingly showing more of an attacking output with a heavier usage under his belt. In a world where teams are becoming more flexible with player positioning, having a midfielder who can play in a variety of positions across the middle at a sufficient level is a useful tool to play with. If we think of teams that could be potential homes for Tolisso next season, Dortmund seems an obvious fit. Firstly, under Thomas Tuchel, the club has become the premium destination for young players to build their game while also Dortmund could use another midfielder with the ability to pass and take some of the ball circulation responsibilities off Julien Weigl.

Reportedly he was the subject of a big Napoli offer over the summer and while it didn’t turn into a move, his form this seaon has been good enought o warrant further interest this summer. Midfielders at a young age who have shown to be as versatile as Tolisso don’t grow on trees, and in this writer’s humble opinion, he’s good enough to be playing for a big Champions League club right now. Lyon currently are on the outside looking in for qualifying into the Champions League, and without it next season it’s hard to believe they would be able to entice him into staying another season when he’s shown enough to suggest he’s ready for a new challenge. A Premier League move would also make sense as his athleticism could translate into a goal scoring central midfielder. Who takes the gamble is hard to predict, but whenever they do it will one with few risks attached.

Olympique Lyonnais 2016-17 Season Preview: Another Title Challenge on the Horizon?

Flashback to the beginning of April 2015 and Ligue 1 was in the midst of a mini renaissance as a league. They were host to the best title race in Europe as PSG/Lyon/Marseille were within two points of each other while the likes of Monaco and Saint Etienne were nipping at the heels ready to join that threesome. It could've been the beginnings of a new era in French Football where it wasn't just a one team monopoly. As the story goes, Marseille flamed out in spectacular fashion and missed out on the Champions League while Lyon didn't have enough gas in the tank to beat out PSG for the title but still had their best season in years. However the goodwill didn't carry through as last season amounted to a stroll through the park for PSG with Lyon floundering until the winter break and Marseille collapsing with their ownership turmoil.

This season? Well Lyon to this point have kept their prized player Alexandre Lacazette out of Arsenal's grasps and the closer we get to the season starting, the chances Arsenal meet Lyon's rumored asking price get smaller. They've made a big show about how they're going to maintain their stars and to this point they've mostly succeeded. Add in the fact that PSG are going through some retooling and no one else domestically are anywhere close, and if there was any year for a non PSG team to sneak up and snatch the league, it'd be this one for Lyon.

The Numbers:

Shot Dif Rank 2nd

SoT Dif Rank: 2nd

Big Chance Dif Rank: 2nd

xG Dif Rank: 2nd

There were two versions of Lyon that existed in 2015-16: The one that languished through the first 19 games which featured a horrible CL campaign, a mid-table position, infighting within the players and injuries to their two main attacking players in Lacazette and Nabil Fekir. And then there was the other version of Lyon that were as dynamic as ever, featured an in-form Lacazette who looked like himself again, and played their best 19 game stretch of football in years, better than at any point in their title chasing 14-15 season.

 

Lyon Games SoT +/- Big Chance +/- Goal Difference Points
First 19 games 15-16 7 -1 0 26
Last 19 games 15-16 57 31 24 39

Lyon Comp

 

On the aggregate Lyon came out as the 2nd best team in France, which well you look at that, they finished in 2nd place. Sure they ended a million points behind PSG but had their first half of the season been relatively sane, they probably would've ended up being ~12 points behind PSG. So which Lyon are we supposed to believe? The one that couldn't go one month without a major incident imploding them or the one that hipsters were intrigued with coming into the season. If I was forced to choose, I have more belief that the Lyon we saw in the second half of the season was much closer to their true talent level. I mean they're the team that ended PSG's waltz to an undefeated domestic season!

Transfers In: Emanuel Mammana, Nicolas N'Koulou

Transfers Out: Samuel Umtiti, Henri Bedimo, Bakary Kone, Lindsay Rose

Outside shuffling some deck chairs in the defense, Lyon have continued their trend of not selling their best players unless they get something close to fair value for them. Samuel Umtiti within Lyon's defensive structure was very good but getting €25M for him is probably a fair enough price. Despite being in the Lyon starting XI for a few seasons, he's still only 22 which is kind of nuts. But getting N'Koulou for free and Mammana as replacements are fine transactions. The last time N'Koulou had a proper manager to learn from was Marcelo Bielsa and he had a very fine season even though it was injury plagued. I really couldn't tell you much about Emanuel Mammana seeing as I've watched two South American games in my lifetime, but maybe he does well in a league more favorable to defenses.

The other big rumor with Lyon was that their prized midfielder Corentin Tolisso was off to Napoli. Losing Tolisso would've been a blow to Lyon and made it harder to construct an argument for them chasing PSG. In addition to his ability to play multiple roles at a fairly high level as a midfielder alongside some spot duty at RB, Lyon's midfield core without him would've been pretty shallow. After you get past the likes of Sergi Darder, Maxime Gonalons and Jordan Ferri, it's basically youngsters they've poached from other clubs like Lucas Tousart and Oliver Kemen to fill the role. However with Lyon apparently keeping hold of Tolisso for another season, now Lyon's midfield won't need to be stretched as much as some feared. I also know a friend who watches Ligue 2 extensively and he vouches for Tousart as a player, so Lyon might possibly be able to roll with five quality midfielders to rotate for league and CL football.

"So Moe, you've been waxing lyrically about Lyon's squad talent and sure, they've got a nice squad, but PSG have dominated French football for four seasons in a row and had they not been bored two seasons ago they would've walked over Lyon/Marseille in 2015. I'm still skeptical"

Glad you think that way, let's go further down this wormhole:

The Tolisso thing would've put a damper on things even though if it had happened Lyon would've been paid handsomely. The real reason why I'm very high on Lyon being able to challenge PSG is twofold. First: Lyon have a really intriguing depth of attacking players. Lacazette, Fekir, Rachid Ghezzal, Maxwell Cornet, Mathieu Valbuena and even Aldo Kalulu. We've already talked loads about Lacazette, Cornet and Ghezzal had really nice second halves to the season, and if Fekir recovers fully from his acl surgery he could continue his ascent to stardom. He was one of the most electrifying players in Ligue 1 in his real debut season at age 21. Kalulu is basically 6th on the depth chart but he's still a highly rated prospect from the famous Lyon academy. As far as an attacking core, it's hard to do better than what Lyon have done given their financial constraints over the years. You could imagine a scenario where those six players alone score 60 goals and contribute another 15 or so assists.

Meanwhile PSG's attack... has kind of seen better days? Hatem Ben Arfa was very fun last year although I'm still skeptical of him being the type of player to continually contribute 23-25 goals a season (having said that going to something resembling a super club does generally help with goal outputs for players). Angel Di Maria is awesome and will probably continue to be so, plus Lucas Moura is still a talented 23 year old despite his hairline being all but gone. They also recently signed Jese from Real Madrid who may turn out to be a very nice player, but he could also be just a guy who produced in spot minutes on a super team and looks ordinary elsewhere.

However when you go through their striker list, for as rich a club as PSG are it's kind of underwhelming. Jean-Kevin Augustin from all accounts is a very fine prospect but he's only 19. Meanwhile Edinson Cavani is a good striker but he's declined somewhat from his peak years at Napoli. I might have a little sympathy for the argument that playing with Zlatan as a striker partner isn't easy and some have used the excuse that he's been totally shunted out as a LW, but that rhetoric really isn't as true as Cavani still got to play centrally when PSG circulated the ball in opponent's halves. Cavani's had stretches without Zlatan playing and he's still hasn't really returned to his Napoli days. Plus he's turning 30 in February, which for most strikers is when they're firmly in their post-prime period. Even if you're the biggest of Cavani optimists and believe he'll have a great season without Zlatan, it's still only him, Augustin and probably spot minutes for Jese/Ben Arfa down the middle. PSG have kept their powder dry at that position, instead beefing up in other areas mainly their midfield and out wide which is great for squad balance, but it's possible that PSG go back to being a team who scores around 80 goals instead of the supernova 102 they achieved last season.

Conclusion

I know this preview is basically the most optimistic view of Lyon's upcoming season, but I do recognize that PSG are considerable favorites this season even in their current incarnation and there's fair skepticism as to Lyon's ability to do better adjusting for CL football and domestic play. There's also time for them to buy a capable striker to compete alongside Cavani which would probably make them clearly heads and shoulders above Lyon considering how good they are at every other position. But I really do like this Lyon squad and it might be their best one since their title winning days of the 2000s. Fekir has had a full summer to really get back in the swing of things, Tolisso has grown leaps and bounds season after season, One of N'Koulou or Mammana will probably do alright as Umtiti's replacement, Lacazette is in the prime years of his career and they're going to play a full season in the 4-3-3 formation that breathed new life to the club.

I still can't give them the edge over PSG just because of the pure talent aggregation they have. I mean good god they are stacked in the midfield. But in comparison to seasons where PSG have just waltzed to the title, this could be the 2nd season in 3 that they nearly go wire to wire with Lyon for the Ligue 1 title.

Prediction:

If Lacazette stays; they're clearly the 2nd best team in France, give PSG a good push domestically until around April before eventually losing out. Fekir returns to form and further progress is shown on a team level.

Who Is Alexandre Lacazette And Should Arsenal Spend £40m On Him?

Since his 27 goal explosion in 2014-15, Alexandre Lacazette has been linked with numerous big clubs over a move from Olympique Lyonnais, with the latest being Arsenal. Similar to Thierry Henry insofar as he started as a winger and later transitioned into a striker role, with the alleged dearth of top class strikers seemingly available he's been on the high on the list for big name clubs who need goal scoring reinforcements.  Only Zlatan Ibrahimovic has scored more goals over the past three seasons in Ligue 1 than Lacazette, and he's been one of the starring members of Lyon's rise back to being a force in French football. It's been a quick ascension for the Lyon man and before Lacazette and Ibrahimovic, the last player to score 27 or more goals in a Ligue 1 season was Jean-Pierre Papin in 1991-92.

Scoring Data

Of course what will stand out with Lacazette's resume over the past three seasons was 2014-15. The general football media tends to judge strikers on their goal output and a 0.9 goals per 90 minutes rate is a fantastic return in a top 5 league, especially playing on a team that isn't full of star players. The problem though with judging strikers on goals even when standardized to a per 90 rate, is that penalties can inflate the total and Lacazette in 14-15 was a prime example. 27 goals look super impressive, but 8 of them were penalties which carry a near 80% conversion rate. Focusing only on his non penalty goals and his goal scoring rate drops to 0.6, which is still good and Ted Knutson a couple of years ago made a scale on where strikers were bracketed in terms of their NPG rate during the season. It's still a nice little reminder to this day when looking at a striker's production:

A fairly simple guideline for non-penalty scoring rates as a Forward is as follows:
.40 to .49 non-penalty goals per 90: Good.
.50 to .59 non-penalty goals per 90: Very good.
.60 to .79 non-penalty goals per 90: Probable Top 20 in Europe
.80 or above non-penalty goals per 90: Probable Top 5 in Europe

By that simple criteria, Lacazette's goal scoring season was top 20 caliber.  Another thing to monitor is the quality of chances they're generating, which is why expected goals has had so much fanfare. Of course it isn't perfect as no single metric is, but by far it's the best way currently to examine shot quality on both a player and team level. Here are Lacazette's xG numbers along with his shot plot for all non penalty shots. (credit goes to @SteMc74 for the data and shot charts)

Laca 4

credit goes to @SteMc74 for the data and shot charts

Laca 2 A

Laca 3

You can see a clear change from where he was in 2014 to where he is now, a change that ties in nicely with how Arsenal play football. The volume of long range shots that carry low goal probabilities have been replaced with poacher like opportunities instead. It's also important to note that since becoming a central player he has over performed xG numbers every single season and has posted a non penalty conversion rate between 18-22%. The degree to which he beat them the first two seasons were never going to be replicated but there is enough evidence to present an argument that Lacazette is an above average finisher. In fairness he also has played in Ligue 1 which isn't renown for sturdy goalkeeping so perhaps that helps a bit too. Regardless, his finishing ability might bypass some concerns about his shot volume not being quite up to a stellar level.

13-14

This was Lacazette's first season playing mainly as a central player, often playing as a second striker of sorts next to Bafetimbi Gomis. Watching Lacazette at this time and you can see both the initial promise of what he would eventually become and the struggles of honing down a new position. There were games during the season where Lacazette played as an inside winger on either side of the flank, particularly when Lyon switched into a 4-3-3 shape whenever Jimmy Briand was on the pitch, but these instances were rather infrequent. Lyon even experimented with a 4-2-3-1 formation without Gomis versus Nice in the beginning games of the season where Lacazette a lot of times did play as the lone forward despite being listed as a RW.

Lyon weren't a particularly good offensive team in 2013-14. They only scored 56 goals on the season which while ranking 4th in Ligue 1 is still a pedestrian output. Despite taking the 5th most shots in the league, their xG numbers were pretty poor too at only 1.09 per game. Watching Lyon's buildup play and you can see why that's the case, especially when it came to Lacazette trying to navigate playing with a more traditional striker. There would be numerous times where Lacazette would call for the ball to be played to his feet so he could run at defenders with speed, only for that pass to not be selected and instead shifted out to the fullbacks.

The end result a lot of times would be a cross intended for someone like Gomis to get on the end of it,  a low percentage chance at best. Whenever Lacazette did get the ball, the quick hitting 1-2 combinations rarely materialized, often it'd just be a pass back to someone like Clement Grenier and the tempo would stall. It can be argued that the side was more tailored towards Gomis and Grenier while Lacazette was just there as a secondary figure. Lacazette had a tendency whenever Gomis was occupying the middle to shift out to a wide position and just stand there with little movement. On occasion Lacazette would gather the ball from the left wing on a fast moving attack and his first extinct would be to find Gomis with a cutback pass.

Having said all that, there were moments where you could see the type of close control and body shifting that would make him the key figure at Lyon in future years. The ability to shift and juke opponents in tight areas whether it be 45 yards from goal or just outside the penalty area were exquisite. Also for a guy who's listed at around 5'9, his lower body strength already was quite impressive as he could hold off defenders when receiving a ground pass with his back to goal.

Overall, given the circumstances both on the field and Lyon's financial difficulties in general, turning Lacazette into a striker was a victory for Lyon which would pay big dividends going forward.

14-15

The season that made Lacazette a household name featured a different cast of characters from the previous season. With Remi Garde departed, Hubert Fournier took over and Nabil Fekir and Clinton N'Jie became important members of the squad. Christophe Jallet was the everyday RB while Grenier and Gueida Fofana were injured for the majority of the season. Yoann Gourcuff was still there but in typical Gourcuff fashion, he played less than 1000 league minutes due to an assortment of injuries.

Perhaps the biggest change rebuilding the attack having seen Gomis move to Swansea. It allowed for Lyon to start playing Fekir in his spot instead which combined with Jallet's inclusion shifted the club to an even more ground based attack that incentivised cutbacks and discouraged long traditional crosses. This suited a striker like Lacazette and although the early results weren't quite there yet for Lyon it looked better than it did for major parts of the previous season.

There were games where Lacazette was held in check, notably in their matches against Olympique Marseille. The unorthodox man-to-man oriented press employed by Marcelo Bielsa disrupted Lyon's passing game, and thus made Lacazette more of a peripheral figure. While not employing the same pressing methods, similar results occurred versus PSG and Saint Etienne. The Marseille fixtures in particular were noteworthy because it forced Lyon to add a new wrinkle: to use fast moving counter attacks.

That new dedication to playing faster when the opportunities arose made Lacazette look like an irresistible force during numerous games. His hat-trick versus Lille, two goals against Caen and a host of other performances in the first half of the season profited from the added creativity around him paying huge dividends. This is the perfect illustration of how devastating Lyon were at time on the counter.

There were still lingering issues with Lacazette's play even with the gaudy goal totals. He struggled against teams with a low block defense in the 2nd half of the season and he was certainly running hot as evidenced by vastly outpacing xG numbers to that degree. Still, Lyon emerged as surprising contenders for the Ligue 1 title alongside Marseille, taking PSG to the final weeks of the season while getting themselves back into the Champions League group stage for the first time since 2011-12. Alongside Nabil Fekir, they emerged as the best forward duo in France that season and the future seemed bright. European football was on the horizon and a new stadium was to open in January 2016. Lyon could hope to rebuild back to their previous heights.

15-16

French football can take credit for the fact that they develop prospects relatively well. As a result their national team is stocked with future young talents for perhaps the next 10-12 years. One thing it isn't good with domestically is that as a result of finances, Ligue 1 clubs (bar PSG) have a pretty hard time keeping squads together for multiple seasons. One only has to look at what's happened to Marseille or Monaco over the past couple of summers and to see an illustration of that.

So it was a really big deal that Lyon kept the majority of their squad ahead of 2015-16. After the seasons they had, it would've been very easy for them to sell super high on Fekir and/ or Lacazette like they did with Clinton N'Jie. However Lyon inked numerous players to contract extensions, kept hold of the striker duo, and with their newfound finances they even added to the squad. Lyon bought Mathieu Valbuena, Sergi Darder, Claudio Beauvue in addition to other signings in an effort to have greater squad depth for juggling Ligue 1 and European Football. There were even hopes that Lyon could replicate their 2014-15 form and put another scare into PSG's domestic dominance.

However there were issues with that recruitment. Valbuena had been a good Ligue 1 player during his time at Marseille, but his fit at Lyon was at best questionable. His best gifts as a playmaker involved set piece deliveries and crosses from the halfspace towards a taller target, which didn't fit Lyon since Lacazette's transition to becoming the only traditional striker. In many ways he would have been a better fit on the Lyon sides of 2-3 years ago. Beauvue also had his issues trying to be the striking partner in the 4-4-2 diamond and settled so badly, he eventually ended up departing to Celta Vigo in January. You add those things together alongside the devastating knee injury to Fekir in early September, and you have a recipe for disaster which befell Lyon during the first half of the season. Lacazette suffered during this period too, most notably with back issues, and scored only 6 goals prior to the winter break including a hat-trick versus Saint Etienne.

Lyon made several changes during the winter break: they fired Fournier and hired Bruno Genesio as manager, switched to a 4-3-3 formation which allowed Rachid Ghezzal and Maxwel Cornet to emerge thus easing Valbuena off of the starting XI, and subsequently took off again: suring the second half of the season they were behind only PSG with the second most points and goal differential in Ligue 1. Fitness and form regained, it's here where we see the current and desirable version of Lacazette as a player:

  • Version 1.0: A young second striker learning the ropes with clear talents but settling for impatient shots
  • Version 2.0: A counter attacking machine with more nuance to his game but struggles still against certain defenses.
  • Version 3.0: A goal poacher with improved link up play + movements, less reliance on counter attacks to generate quality chances but still really good at it, and a much better sense of when and where to shoot.

Of his 21 Ligue 1 goals in 2015-16, none of them came from outside the box and many of them came from making straightforward runs or even snatching up rebounds. The art of the striker: being at the right place at the right time. Lacazette came full circle as a player with his hat-trick versus Monaco in week 37. Billed as the game to decide which club qualifies straight into the Champions League group stage, his three goals capped Lyon's 6-1 thrashing and were brutally efficient, a contrast to previous hat-tricks where the aesthetics were considerably higher.

It wasn't quite the season he imagined, and despite his goal scoring streak in the 2nd half it wasn't enough for him to make it to the Euro 16 France roster, but Lacazette's stock has still never been higher, and nor has his price tag, now thought to be in the £40M range.

Conclusion

Alexandre Lacazette has become a very good goal scoring striker who year after year has improved in noticeable ways, whether it be his general link up play or his ability to shoot from better areas. It's also helped that this rise has coincided with Lyon's improvement as a club offensively over the same duration span and a growing diversity in their attack. As the team has got better around him, it's helped spur his evolution as a striker from a inefficient shot taker to a ruthless finisher. There are some questions surrounding the quality of fit that he'd be to Arsenal, given obvious differences in style to Olivier Giroud or similar types, but it also should be said that Lyon have evolved in a way that somewhat resembles what Arsenal, which can be seen both visually and the in the growing centrality of their shot selection in the 18 yard box.

If we highlight concerns with Lacazette, his shot numbers over the past two seasons have plateaued around 3 shots per 90 minutes, which is fine but a way off the rates of the truly elite strikers in Europe, though maybe that can be partly explained by Ligue 1's slower pace as a league. Size could be a bit of an issue if he does go to the Premier League next season, though judging by the success of very recent Ligue 1 imports to England maybe that's really nothing to worry about. The Premier League hosts perhaps the best stable of goalkeepers in the world and it'll be a better barometer as to how good of a finisher Lacazette truly is. If his finishing skill is genuinely in a higher echelon, then the shot generation concerns will subdue.

But will he move? It's entirely possible that he'll spend another season at Lyon, their financial crisis is a thing of the past and while no one would confuse them for PSG, they can go back to the smart player trading that made them 7 time league champions during the 2000's and a perennial Champions League knockout stage participant. Whatever the future holds, and whichever team ends up with Alexandre Lacazette, they are looking at a 25 year old striker landing in his peak who has shown a consistently high goal output over three years. Arsenal missed out on Jamie Vardy, but can they afford to ignore their pressing need for striking reinforcements? Reports today suggest Lacazette is keen to leave and he could well be the answer for Arsenal.

Someone tell Arsene.

2015-16 Olympique Lyon Season Review

The common joke about Ligue 1 is that instead of asking "who will win the title", it's more so "how many points will PSG win the league by". As it turns out, PSG can win the league by a crap ton. But if you rewind it back to late July, there were the faint whispers that Lyon could be the team that pushed PSG for the majority of the season, kind of in a similar way to what Napoli did for Juventus. I was a bit skeptical of that happening seeing as quite a few things had to break in Lyon's favor last season for Ligue 1 to be as competitive as it was, and they benefitted from conversion luck especially in the 2nd half of the season.

But even then, I wasn't expecting Lyon to capitulate in the first 19 games to the same degree that they did. They were quite frankly... average. They were 9th in the league table with a goal difference of 0, 25 points behind PSG. The same Lyon team that were tipped to at least give PSG a bit of a fight domestically were behind such big clubs like Lorient, Caen, and newly promoted Angers. They were terrible in the Champions League despite making a big fuss about how getting back into the competition allowed them to spend more than they had in numerous years.

 

Lyon Net
Data Courtesy of Transfermarkt

 

Their spending as well came into question. Mathieu Valbuena's fit was always awkward from the start, a set piece specialist who relied on crosses to create his high volume of chances was always going to have problems fitting in with a team that doesn't rely on crosses. Claudio Beauvue never really fitted in well when they played him alongside Alexandre Lacazette in a front 2 and his conversion rate dropping by over 12% from 20.5% last season to 7.8% also didn't help things. Sergi Darder was still getting used to Lyon while it seemed like Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa was committing an error at center back every other week.

It also didn't help that they were stricken by injury to their prized striker duo. Nabil Fekir tearing his ACL at the time he did (after scoring an audacious hat trick against Caen and looking like an elite young talent) put even more pressure on Lacazette to deliver and considering that Lacazette was dealing with back issues over the first couple of months, it was a recipe for disaster. It panned out that way: shorn of elite talent, Lyon played meekly in the beginning of the season.

And then boom, 5 months later and all those problems kind of just went away. Lyon have been a dominant team ever since the winter break. Their goal difference at +24 is the 2nd highest in Ligue 1, 14 more than the third highest in Lille. Their first 19 games this season have barely resembled the last 19:

 

olympique-lyon-2015-16-season (2)

 

Remember when Lyon were challenging for the title last year and they were a couple of points behind Marseille after 19 games last season? Well this stretch of games has arguably been even more dominant than that one.

Lyon Comp

 

What's triggered the explosion for Lyon in the second half has been the return of form for Alexandre Lacazette. I mentioned him earlier this season and the issues surrounding his outlier performance last season, but it can be argued that Lacazette has now had his best ever season and he went on a torrid hot streak. The same can be said for both him and the likes of Rachid Ghezzal and Maxwell Cornet. Lyon ditched the 4-4-2 diamond formation that brought them all their success last season and eventually ended up with those three as their forwards in a permanent 4-3-3.

Ghezzal Cornet Lacazette Running

So this season has been... I'm not sure if success is the right word to use considering that they're a billion points behind PSG, but getting back to the CL group stages once again will mean that it hasn't been a failure. Their second half form in particular has been so dominant that it's almost wiped the foul stench of the first 19 games. The type of performances in particular at home were exhilarating. They were the first team to ruin PSG's bid for an undefeated season, they walked over Guingamp 5-1, they beat Monaco 6-1 to clinch an automatic birth in the CL group stages. Some of the best football in France this season have occurred in Lyon's new stadium, Parc Olympique Lyonnais.

Another good thing for Lyon going forward is that domestic competition from teams around their level might be on the decline as well. Monaco have had a disappointing season; last summer's approach of just buying a bunch of youngsters and hoping for the best hasn't produced the greatest of results so far. They do have a bigger budget than Lyon but still have more holes to fill. Nice and Rennes have had solid seasons but Hatem Ben Arfa is leaving on a free at season's end while Rennes are selling their prized young talent Ousmane Dembele to Dortmund. Saint Etienne over the past few years have never proved that they've had enough talent to be a serious enough Champions League hopeful while Marseille are in for a long rebuild unless things drastically change. Sure PSG are still there and with all their money they'll always have a big cushion over everyone else, but even they might be staring at some retooling with Zlatan leaving this summer.

This isn't to say that it's all rosy for Lyon. There have been numerous rumors about Lacazette's interest in coming to England and even though Lyon will be in the CL next season, those rumors won't stop during the summer. Nabil Fekir is still working his way back to his peak form and the faint scent of rumors for their prized centre back, Samuel Umtiti persist. It's also not a good look when they spent as much as they did for Valbuena and their best stretch has involved him being nowhere near the starting lineup. Despite how good they've been this season, this is a rather small squad and it showed early on when they had to juggle both European and domestic football.

For all that, Ligue 1 desperately needs another decent team in Europe very soon and Lyon is France's best chance at it. They have the stadium to bring in the revenue they've desired for since the project began nearly a decade ago, this will be their second straight season with Champions League football to entice players to come over and they have a great academy that in particular has been able to produce attacking talent. From the likes of Karim Benzema, Anthony Martial, Alassane Plea and now recently with Fekir and Aldo Kalulu. Again, look at everyone else in comparison and Lyon by far are in a more steady place. It's a far cry from the dark days of 2012-14 when the club had to sell players and solely rely on their academy just to keep itself functional.

Lyon have a lot to look forward to in the near future. Admittedly some of this will depend on whether they can keep Lacazette going forward and if not, what will their contingency plan be. The likes of Cornet, Fekir and Kalulu mean that Lyon at least have the basis for a decent attack if they sell Lacazette and just stick in house. Nobody knows if Bruno Genesio is truly Lyon's manager of the future, I mean hell at this time last season it looked like Lyon had their manager in Hubert Fournier and that bubble burst by December. But at the very least he's overseen Lyon's dominant 2nd half of the season and appears to have pointed them in the right direction.

Four months ago if you asked whether Lyon had a shot of just being in the Champions League next season, the majority of people would've been hugely skeptical. Now, Ligue 1 has a potential for a 2nd above average continental team in Lyon. If this version can remain in place for next season, then both Ligue 1 and Lyon will be in a much better place going forward.