The Unbearable Likeness of Arsenal

Arsenal have been a tremendously consistent team over the past decade. However, now the tide seems to be turning against Arsène Wenger. Many fans would happily trade in that consistency for a few more league titles. If you're the fourth best team in the league over 12 seasons, how many league titles should you expect to win? If variance can swing Leicester a league title, you would think it could have thrown a few Arsenal's way, too. This is the question that Chris Anderson (writer of The Numbers Game) asked on Twitter last week: Fortunately, there are a couple of different ways we can try to answer this. One way is to use bookies' odds to estimate the probability of a team winning a match. Then, using these probabilities, we then simulate an entire season and estimate what the probability of a team winning the league really was. There are some problems with this method (see the appendix); however, it does allow us to get some ballpark numbers.

Zero league titles

So what is the chance of Arsenal winning no league titles since 2004? By the method described above, the probability of Arsenal winning 0 league titles from 2004/05 to 2015/16 (inclusive) is estimated at 14%. With a crude simulation like this, it’s probably not wise to read too much into the exact numbers. Nonetheless, this does suggest that Arsenal have been somewhat unlucky not to bring back a few titles over the last 10 years. So how many league titles should we have expected Arsenal to win?  

12 top four spots

It seems unfair to consider the bad luck Arsenal have had and yet not consider the good luck they have benefited from elsewhere. If failing to win a league title or two is unlikely given (the bookmakers’ opinion of) their overall performance, how unexpected is continued qualification for the Champion’s League?

Although the individual probabilities remain high, the combined probability of Arsenal finishing above Tottenham on all of the last 12 seasons is just 15%. It is of course possible that there are some factors that the odds may not account for. However, even if you believe that the odds are missing an adjustment for Spursy-ness, it still represents an unlikely achievement. I don’t think it’s at all surprising to conclude that Arsenal were unlucky to miss out on a couple more league titles. I think most football fans could have imagined Arsenal taking the league at times in 2015/16 or 2007/08. It’s tempting to wonder what could have happened had everything gone their way just once. Old stars might have stayed; new stars might have joined. You can see how a bit of luck at the right time can kickstart a chain reaction of improvement (looking at you Chelsea 2011/12). Ultimately, looking at it like this misses the point. Most Arsenal fans aren’t disappointed by one missing title. Instead, it is the sheer repetitiveness of each season. Every year the same mistakes are made on and off the pitch. At least in Groundhog Day, Bill Murray learned a thing or two each time he woke up. A bit more silverware and the resulting improvements in the playing squad would have helped paper over the cracks. But football is (slowly) modernising and those who fail to learn from their mistakes risk falling behind.

Appendix