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The NFL is obsessed with speed. Xavier Worthy just ran the fastest 40-yard dash in NFL Combine history and moved himself into the first round of the Draft. The Rams have used a combination of analytics and film to quantify in game speed instead of using the 40-yard dash. This has led to them valuing a few players like Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua higher than other teams. And the OG WR speed king himself, Tyreek Hill was just named the only 99 overall WR in Madden 25 (pt 2, IYKYK). In terms of receiver play, speed kills.
Being able to run fast is great, but being able to run fast while running routes is an even better skill. Using our frame-by-frame tracking data and AI, we collect the speed, acceleration, and distance traveled for every player, every frame, on every play. As part of our enrichment process, these get classified further into top speed, top acceleration, and total distance traveled. We then add another layer of contextualization for football-specific areas. One of those areas is deep route speed. A deep route is classified as any route 10 yards or over (go, corner, port, dig, curl, comeback, and deep out). Worthy had a top speed of 21.02 mph, but his deep route speed dropped down to 19.9. This would have put him at 56th on qualifying WR from last season.
It’s unreal the talent that LSU has had at WR the past few seasons. Ohio State still holds the title as WRU, but LSU has the only reasonable claim otherwise. The pairing of Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson to Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr is unreal. Even though Nabers was drafted higher, Brian Thomas Jr actually had the top deep route speed in all of FBS last season at 21.42 mph. While Brian Thomas Jr and Nabers are playing in the NFL, here are the players with the top 10 deep route speeds returning to college football this season.
1. Xzavier Henderson (Cincinnati) - 20.95
Xzavier Henderson takes home the crown for fastest wide receiver returning to college football. The plot below shows Henderson’s top speed by play for every play last season. His top deep route speed came in the Bearcats matchup against Iowa State. As you can see, in that game Henderson reached above the 90th percentile of top speeds 9 times, the most of any game last year.
2. Eric Singleton Jr. (Georgia Tech) - 20.84
It makes sense that one of the fastest returning receivers would also run track. Singleton competed for the track team last year and had season bests of 6.68 in the 60, 10.32 in the 100, and 21.18 in the 200. My wife (a former sprinter) informed me that’s pretty good…for a football player. Singleton was the leading receiver as a true Freshman, and he is hoping to build on that this upcoming season.
3. Steven Mcbride (Hawaii) - 20.80
Steven Mcbride is currently suspended from the Hawaii football team after he was arrested a few weeks ago. If he returns to play this season, he will be the third fastest receiver this season.
4. JB Mitchell III (Eastern Michigan) - 20.79
Somebody needs to get the strength and conditioning department at Eastern Michigan a raise. With two players on the top returning get-off list, and now Mitchell III as one of the top returning deep route receivers, they have something figured out in Ypsilanti. JB Mitchell also had a 12.3% elite acceleration rate, good for 90th out of 418 qualifying receivers. 90th isn’t interesting in and of itself, but 91st on the list? Xavier Worthy.
5. Christian Dremel (Rutgers) - 20.75
Christian Dremel is our first true slot receiver on the list! I wonder if his cue for each play is to find the field hash and line up on it? In the snap distribution visual below look at those heat bands over the hashes! Dremel had the 4th highest slot alignment % in the country. Slot receivers get a different type of defender than outside receivers. Either a LB walks out, a safety walks down, or a nickel corner could be in the game and lines up over the slot. Either option is usually not as good of an athlete as the starting outside corners. With Dremel playing in the slot, Rutgers takes advantage of his speed against a different defender type.
6. Isaiah Bond (Alabama -> Texas) - 20.65
With Xavier Worthy moving on to the NFL, Texas had to look elsewhere to replace that speed. They dipped into the transfer portal to sign two of the top transfers available: Isaiah Bond and Silas Bolden. Alabama used Bond as a deep threat specialist last season, and Texas hopes he can similarly stretch the field for Quinn Ewers this fall. Bond’s top 3 routes run last year were Go, Post, and Dig, and those were some of his highest targeted routes as well.
7. Josh Cameron (Baylor) - 20.51
Josh Cameron is the first player on this list that the deep route speed is the top speed from the season. Cameron also is the player with the least number of targets returning from the top 10. He only was targeted 42 times, the next lowest was Joseph Manjack with 63. Baylor recently hired Jake Spavital as their offensive coordinator. Coach Spavital brings his flavor of the Air Raid offense to Waco, and Cameron looks to benefit from the offensive scheme shift.
8. Justus Ross-Simmons (Colorado State -> Syracuse) - 20.48
New Syracuse coach Fran Brown made a splash in the transfer portal when Kyle McCord, the former Ohio State starting QB, picked the Orange. One of the many other transfers that went under the radar is Justus Ross-Simmons. Ross-Simmons makes our list in the 8 slot with a deep route speed of 20.48.
I love when I find oddities in different tools on our site. For example, the passing heatmap for Justus Ross-Simmons tells us a lot about how he was utilized by the Rams last season. This one chart shows us where he lined up (almost exclusively on the left side of the formation), and where he was targeted (lots of screens and quick game). The Rams tried to maximize his speed by getting him the ball fast and letting him work with the ball in his hands.
9. Jaylin Noel (Iowa State) - 20.45
Iowa State might have the top receiving tandem in the Big 12 next season. That is not a typo, IOWA STATE. Jaylin Noel is the highest returning 2023 All Big-12 team returner (also 2nd team last year was Brennan Presley from Oklahoma State). Jayden Higgins was voted preseason first team All-Big 12 team for 2024. Higgins is 6’4” 210 pounds, and Jaylin Noel is 5’10” 200 pounds. Together, they are a good combination of speed and power. Rocco Becht will have his share of weapons in Ames this season.
10. Joseph Manjack IV (Houston) - 20.43
Last but not least on our list is Joseph Manjack IV. The former USC Trojan had a good season last year hauling in 46 passes for 577 yards and 6 TD’s. His top deep route speed of 20.43 mph rounds out our top 10 returners.
Random note to finish us off, Manjack doesn’t wear gloves when he plays WR. If you’ve never worn receiver gloves, or gotten a chance to feel them, they are STICKY. Companies make them as sticky as legally possible, and they can help make catches like OBJ’s memorable catch possible. Even with his disregard for the extra help, Manjack still has a good Catch Rate Over Expected (CROE), and his pass placement visual shows he is able to catch balls away from his body with ease.
Matt Edwards
Head of American Football Analysis
matt.edwards@statsbomb.com
@thecoachedwards on X (Formerly Twitter)
