The prevailing perception of Serie A is one of a league typified by the art of defending. Just the phrase 'Italian football' conjures up VHS-quality memories from decades gone by, images of Arrigo Sacchi's AC Milan teams moving as one fluid unit and myths about Paolo Maldini somehow defending without ever tackling. For many years some of the stereotypes did have truth to them. Times have changed though, and Serie A has changed along with them. Before we get there we need to look back at the league's recent past. When viewed from a macro perspective, Serie A’s statistical profile sticks out like a sore thumb. Italian teams take lots of shots. For the past five seasons the league has been at or near the top of overall shots per game amongst the top five European leagues. Something which has persisted as the rest of their peers on the continent have diminished in this regard.
Average Shot Distance (metres) in the top five European Leagues.
Roma | |||
Season | Average shot distance (metres) | Non-pen xG |
Non-pen xG per shot
|
14/15 | 20.82 | 45.4 | 0.088 |
15/16 | 18.94 | 60.9 | 0.105 |
16/17 | 17.71 | 74.6 | 0.113 |
The fulcrum of this was Edin Džeko, who had an obscenely good season for a striker. He was the league’s top scorer with 29 goals and was getting 5.2 shots per90 in the league, with 4.6 of those coming in the box. For comparison: Gonzalo Higuaín - not a bad striker himself as you’ll be aware - was putting up 4.1 shots total. A couple of other players were close to his shots totals but no one came near to his monstrous amount in the box. These are peak-Cristiano Ronaldo numbers. In fact, it’s the highest since 2012/13 at least.
Seasons with most shots in the box Per90. (Top 5 European leagues, 2012/13 - 2016/17). Minimum of 1500 minutes played. | ||||
Player | Season | Minutes | Shots Per90 | Shots in the Box Per90 |
Edin Džeko | 2016/17 | 3050 | 5.22 | 4.6 |
Cristiano Ronaldo | 2013/14 | 2536 | 7.67 | 4.47 |
Robert Lewandowski | 2015/16 | 2653 | 5.12 | 4.27 |
Sergio Agüero | 2013/14 | 1527 | 5.07 | 4.18 |
Sergio Agüero | 2014/15 | 2528 | 5.27 | 4.09 |
Gonzalo Higuaín | 2015/16 | 2963 | 5.53 | 4.04 |
Whether these eye-watering stats can continue without Spalletti or Mohamed Salah remains to be seen. New manager Eusebio Di Francesco did fine work at Sassuolo, but he has big shoes to fill on that running track at the Stadio Olimpico. Juventus The Old Lady may be ever-dominant but that doesn’t mean she rests on her laurels. The first couple of seasons under Massimiliano Allegri were quite good from an offensive perspective, yet the defence and its stellar expected goals against numbers were doing most of the heavy lifting on the way towards consecutive titles. 2016/17 and the addition of Gonzalo Higuaín layered an extra level of attacking power on top.
Juventus | |||
Season | Average shot distance (metres) | Non-pen xG |
Non-pen xG per shot
|
14/15 | 18.99 | 52.4 | 0.088 |
15/16 | 19.54 | 55.7 | 0.094 |
16/17 | 17.73 | 66.4 | 0.114 |
That they somehow managed to do this without sacrificing any of their defensive obstinacy (finishing with a measly expected goals against tally of 25.3) was all the more impressive. They don’t take as many shots as Roma (15.3 per game vs 17.8 for the boys from the capital) but they’re every bit as deadly. Both sides are also pretty indifferent about how they get those shots, as long as they get them. In terms of percentage of their shots as headers Juventus rank 8th in the league and Roma 7th. Napoli Napoli are something akin to poster boys for this 'new look' Serie A. Manager Maurizio Sarri took over from Rafael Benítez in 2015 and ever since then they've become darlings in pockets of the football community for their slick pass and move style. Away from how easy on the eye they are though, their numbers and how they've changed are quietly intriguing.
Napoli | ||||
Season | Shots Per Game | Non-Pen xG For | xG / Shot |
Avg Shot Distance (metres)
|
13/14 (Benítez) | 15.2 | 57.6 | 0.101 | 20.84 |
14/15 (Benítez) | 16.4 | 59.7 | 0.097 | 19.78 |
15/16 (Sarri) | 17.3 | 64.0 | 0.099 | 19.91 |
16/17 (Sarri) | 17.7 | 70.0 | 0.105 | 19.40 |
The difference between Benítez and Sarri is there but it is more subtle than you might expect. Sarri's iteration operate as this sort of emblematic bridge between the older Serie A style of attack and the modern incarnation. They bomb shots in but are also geared towards higher value shots than their forebears. The truly impressive part here is when you realise that they lost Gonzalo Higuaín - the league's top goalscorer in 15/16, responsible for 45% of the team's goals - to Juventus in the summer of 2016. Far from suffering because of it they actually somehow got better. Dries Mertens out of nowhere had easily the best season of his career, scoring 28 goals (1 behind Džeko). That tally was a bit hot compared to his individual xG but the overall team numbers don't lie. They were the ne plus ultra of egalitarian attacking football. Inter Milan One of Serie A's overarching storylines of late has been the relative decline of Inter and AC Milan. Both were once regulars at the top of Italian and European football but recent seasons have seen them struggle to break into the league's top four, or even the top six. AC Milan overhauled their squad this summer with many new and young players, meaning they'll likely be radically different than their uninspiring 16/17. However their city brethren are starting from a slightly different base. Inter cycled through four different managers on their way to a 7th place finish, contributing to the image of a club in constant turmoil. However, the underlying numbers painted a much kinder picture. Their attack came on leaps and bounds in every department, coming close to par with their title-challenging ambitions. All this despite them being shifted around between managers like a hot potato. There's clearly great potential here. With Spalletti in charge for a full season that potential might actually be properly maximised.
Inter Milan | ||||
Season | Shots Per Game | Average shot distance (metres) | Non-pen xG |
Non-pen xG per shot
|
13/14 | 14.5 | 19.19 | 56.2 | 0.102 |
14/15 | 16.2 | 19.76 | 53.5 | 0.088 |
15/16 | 13.6 | 19.32 | 52.5 | 0.102 |
16/17 | 16.7 | 17.63 | 65.5 | 0.104 |
__________________ Check out a Serie A match next time there's one on TV and you'll see the difference that is apparent in the numbers. Teams throughout the table are now getting noticeably smarter with how they attack, as well as the action just becoming a bit more open and fun to watch. The old days of endless long shots against packed defences are in the rearview. It would be unreasonable to expect Juventus' stranglehold on the title to be broken given how long they've been sovereign for but, regardless, the league looks as competitive as it has in some time. Whatever the end result it'll likely all be a good bit of craic along the way. __________________ If you have any questions about the article you can DM me on twitter @EuanDewar. Enjoy the season.