No sympathy for the devil; keep that in mind. Buy the ticket, take the ride…and if it occasionally gets a little heavier than what you had in mind, well…maybe chalk it off to forced conscious expansion: Tune in, freak out, get beaten.

Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

Things were looking so good for our protagonist. One half in the books, Algeria up one-nil, and Belgium looking disorganized. After that, things turned dark. Belgium’s substitutions proved fruitful and they rallied as Algeria wilted. However the real disaster was yet to unfold: First, check out this heat map of shots:


Now, check out Saint Guillermo “Hands” Ochoa:


Mexico was never particularly threatening, but Brazil couldn’t break through. Brazil will need to play significantly better if they want to win multiple games in the knockout stage. The only bright spot for our fearless hero was due to an absolutely miserable gaffe by the Russian keeper. Russia was able to rally for the equalizer, and carried most of the play afterward, but was never able to get ahead of South Korea.

After a tough day Nate Silver is still in the black at $168,759. Whether he can say the same tomorrow is unknown:

Game 18: Australia +0.5 goals, 10.21%: Risking $17,230 to win $74,914

Game 19: Chile +0.5 goals, 43.82%: Risking $66,400 to win $112,542

Game 20: Cameroon +0.5 goals, 27.62%: Risking $72,936 to win $117,639 (Updated)

An 0-3 day would put Nate down to $61,616. A 3-0 day would leave him up $613,827. Aye, when you sail full Kelly, the waves be steep! The biggest game of the day is Chile-Spain. Nate’s model has Chile slightly more likely to be the victor. The betting markets expect Spain to win outright over 60% of the time. I’m curious how Spain will react after being demolished. Given the state of their tiebreaks, they need three points today. Croatia needs three points as well, although it is possible for them to draw and advance over Mexico on tiebreaks, but they’d need to demolish Mexico, winning by two or more goals. Given that Ochoa hasn’t allowed a goal in two games, that’s a tough task. Even with a win over Cameroon, Croatia will need to defeat Mexico, but at that point a one-nil result would be enough to advance.

I hope y’all are enjoying the games as much as I am. Let’s get ready for another great day of futbol. As for Nate, well, Hunter S. Thompson said it best.

“We’d be fools not to ride this strange torpedo all the way out to the end.”

Enjoy day seven!

  • Hagrin

    “A 3-0 day would leave him up $613,827.”

    I’m not sure that line is correct based on the numbers you posted above. Appears to me a 3-0 day would give him a bankroll of $394,138 since it appears you’re using with 3 independent events. Apologize if I am missing something, still asleep, but that $613k number seems wrong to me as I have been following your posts here since the WC started.

    – @hagrin

    • Seth Burn

      The events are independent, but with each win, each following bet will be larger as they are determined by bankroll size. Kelly-betting scales up quickly during a winning streak.

      • Hagrin

        I understand the concept, but I don’t see you updating the odds anywhere so you’re using an up-to-date bankroll with stale odds? I mention this because money poured in on Mexico during the day and Nate would have lost even more money than reported here.

        I apologize if I am missing where you’re using fresh odds with the fresh bankroll? I’m fading Nate in spots where I think his model is wrong and my results are starting to divert from yours more and more as the tournament progresses.

        – @hagrin

        • Seth Burn

          Now this is news. I was watching pinnacle and they were clearly getting hit with Brazil money. The answer is that I am setting the bets the night before and sizing them as if the previous bets of the day are losers. If that proves not to be the case I update the stake and see what the current line is.

          Now, it IS an interesting case as to what to do if the line moves against you on the day of the event. For the sake of consistency I’m not going to reevaluate the stake sizes in those cases, but it would be legitimate to do so.

          Are your results and odds public? Please note, Nate gets Pinnacle and Betfair. There aren’t any other locations where his sizing would be possible, so he doesn’t get any other outs.

    • Mike

      It’s because the 66,400 is calculated assuming 538 lose the bet on Australia, should they win, that number rises to betting 106,778 on Chile, and hence having much more upside.

      Tl;DR Compounding

  • Adam

    I feel like “Aye, when you sail full Kelly, the waves be steep!” belongs on a poster.

    • Seth Burn

      I agree. I’ll commission a piece and see how it looks.

  • middy

    Commenting as a placeholder for future Kelly poster.

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