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June 28, 2018

Nate Silver Day 15: The game of the tournament

By Seth Burn

Finally, we’ve arrived at the game of the tournament: England-Belgium. We avoided the worst case scenario where the winner would get the winner of Brazil-Germany, but there is still an advantage to losing this game. Because of this, I made a slight modification to my tracking. For this game I assumed the market draw odds were accurate, and bet accordingly.

Nate is betting on Poland (who are out), and Panama (who are out, facing Tunisia who are also out). That bet on Panama is huge for a “meaningless” game, but that’s how it goes.

Sweden’s win swelled Nate’s bankroll to $1,363,592. I’ll go over where the future’s stand on Friday. Be warned, when we get to Goldman Sachs and Opta it’s not going to be pretty.

Bankroll % Team Wager Risked To Win Result
4.86% Poland -0.5 66232 129814 0
3.58% Colombia-Senegal Draw 48884 129541 0
7.77% Belgium 0 105950 129259 0
21.04% Panama 0.5 286859 309808 0

 

Article by Seth Burn