After the madness of the 2015/16 Premier League season it appears normal service has been resumed. We head into 17/18 with Chelsea as defending champions once again, having strode to the title without really much fuss at all in the end. Antonio Conte arrived, dug through the rubble left behind by his Portuguese predecessor, and restored the club to a spot at the top of English football. The squad Conte inherited was – despite its defective state – obviously fantastic. Nonetheless he should be applauded for reassembling them into a team with no real holes in their game. The move to a 3-4-3 was inspired and the speed with which the players adapted to it a testament to Conte’s management. As was bringing Victor Moses out of the wilderness and somehow turning him into Cafu. Any measure you want to look at, they ranked highly. The bedrock of their success being the killer combo of conceding a low amount of shots (8.5 per game, 3rd fewest in the league) + low quality of those shots. Between the 11th of December and the 25th of February they had a run where they conceded fewer than 10 shots in every match – 12 matches in total. They also made superb use of set pieces, scoring 22 goals from them, 9 goals more than any other top-6 team. Back to front they were just solid. Their defensive numbers might have been even better had they not spent the first few matches testing other formations. In reality though, all of this variance talk is a footnote. They were an excellent team with negligible flaws. As a result the objective for the upcoming seasons is clear: consolidate where they are and prepare for the added weight of the extra Champions League matches. They used the joint-2nd fewest players in the league last season and were mostly unfettered by injury. The squad needs fattening up. Transfers After three productive years Diego Costa is on the out and to replace him the club has brought in Real Madrid’s Álvaro Morata, for around £58m + vague add-ons. Morata’s production in previous seasons hints towards an impressive talent, yet it remains an opaque sample. At 24-years-old he’s never played over 1500 minutes in a league season and has never been the first choice striker on a team. 2016/17 La Liga was the first time in his career where his number of starts trumped his appearances off the bench, racking up a mind-boggling 15 goals and 4 assists in 1334 minutes. Despite the small sample size his underlying numbers in that time are great and point to a fairly diverse range of skills. He attempted 21 headed shots (converting 6 of them), more than Costa has attempted in the last two seasons combined, and showed a penchant for creating decent shots off of dribbles, all with a skew towards the left side of the box – a preference that Costa shared. The overall shot selection is solid too with a very nice cluster (mostly headers) right in the middle of the box.
Looking back on his previous seasons, both in Madrid and in a similar role for Juventus, he’s never had a problem getting shots off. Not once has he dropped below 3 shots per90 in a league season, which includes as of late lopping off the long-rangers he once had a taste for. In fact, he’s never really had a problem with anything. During limited minutes, season after season, he’s repeatedly done everything that’s been asked of him in terms of goalscoring and being a focal point at the top of European football. The question hanging over all of this though is how he’ll translate to a greater workload on a different team. Chelsea obviously have an elite set of talent but Real Madrid’s attacking firepower is as good as it gets and playing with them is likely to maximise a player’s output. How much of his splendid 16-17 is down to situation? How much of it is small sample size theatre? Will Chelsea (having played the joint-third fewest crosses per game in the league last season) tailor their attack to his strengths, or will he fit into theirs?
One suspects that the purpose of signing Bakayoko is twofold: to add a different option in terms of midfield ball progression and to lighten Kanté’s load somewhat. While Matić’s creative contribution has stayed the same with time, his defensive activity has lowered. In the 14/15 title-winning season the Serb’s defensive numbers were actually pretty Kanté-esque: a split of 2.35 Padj interceptions per90, 4.07 Padj Tackles per90 and a 43% Tackle/Dribbled past %. In 16/17 this changed to 1.70/1.89/40%. Is this age or is it the effect of playing next to Kanté? Or both?
Michy for his part was also red hot in those minuscule minutes, scoring 5 goals (including the one that clinched the title) with xG output to match but it isn’t clear how real that production is. At 23-years-old the club needs a bigger sample size so they can figure out what they actually have with him. If he had played more time and continued to produce then maybe the club doesn’t have to buy Morata this summer. Instead of gambling on the young striker from elsewhere they can gamble on the young striker already on their books. Now there’s talk that he won’t even be Morata’s backup, that the club is looking for an extra striker and Michy will be loaned elsewhere. We lack the context of what goes on in training and behind closed doors. Context that might illuminate why he has been handled this way. From an outsider’s perspective though, it’s confusing. Going into 2017/18 there are a few nagging concerns if you’re a Chelsea supporter. The midfield situation will likely be solved in some fashion before the transfer window ends but others – wingback and attacking midfield particularly – are less certain. The dual broad objectives of replacing Diego Costa and filling out the squad have only been half accomplished at this point. There are slight opportunities for regression and an apprehension about how good Morata will be but these aren’t apocalyptic concerns. As things stand though, there’s still a few holes to fill.
2017
Chelsea 2017/18 Season Preview
By admin
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August 3, 2017