El rey ha muerto, ¡viva el rey! (Nate Silver, Day 8)

By Seth Burns | June 19, 2014

El rey ha muerto, ¡viva el rey! (Nate Silver, Day 8)

Perhaps they were taking their cue from King Juan Carlos, who abdicated the throne in favor of son, Felipe IV. Perhaps Chile just wanted it more:

"I hate hate hate the cliché but Chile just wanted it more. What's been effectively a home-field atmosphere perhaps helps too."

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 18, 2014

Perhaps XKCD was right all along: http://xkcd.com/904/

Whatever the case may be, Spain was outscored 7-1 over the course of two games, with the lone one being a penalty kick. That was as awful a performance as any defending champion has ever put up.  The king is dead. A new king is waiting to be crowned.

I don't mean to dismiss Chile who played very well. Chile was able to frustrate Spain, and was very effective at converting their early scoring opportunities. Now Chile will face the Netherlands with group supremacy on the line.

The Netherlands fought off a feisty group of Socceroos.  After falling behind one-nil, the Socceroos responded with a brilliant strike from Tim Cahill. They were able to take the lead in the second half with a penalty kick, but goals from RVP and Memphis Depay (from distance) put the Oranje ahead for good.

Croatia was already the better team, up 1-0 when Alex Song effectively ended Cameroon's World Cup with an idiotic red card. Croatia was able to take advantage, winning four-nil. They'll still need to beat Mexico to advance, unless Brazil somehow stumbles against Cameroon.

Despite Australia and Cameroon letting him down, Nate Silver had a good day due to Chile. He now stands at $191,134.

Game 21: Columbia, 10.6%: Risking $20,260 to win $21,476

Game 22: Uruguay +0.5 goals, 23.04%: Risking $48,985 to win $45,357 (Updated)

Game 23: Greece +0.5 goals, 15.68%: Risking $40,449 to win $28,264 (Updated, adjusted % due to line moves)

I was expecting Nate to bet bigger on Columbia and Greece, but the lines have shifted a bit towards those teams. I'm curious to see how the Columbia-Ivory Coast game is officiated. I'd like to see the players have some freedom to be physical. Uruguay England is effectively an elimination game. I'm curious why people think it is a good idea to back England in one of those (or any game really), but they do. I'm assuming Greece will stick to their usual game plan of trying to avoid allowing any goals, and if they happen to accidentally score one, great!

Day eight should be a pretty nice day of football, but it merely an appetizer compared to the glory of day nine when Nate and Costa Rica will team up to take on Italy. You've been warned. Ciao!