Jores Okore – The most expensive of the new signings (£4.1M), Okore is a 21-year-old center back from Denmark, “known for his pace and strength.” Looking at film, he’s corded up with thick muscle, a lot like Benteke, but not as tall. He even has Champions’ League experience with Nordsjaelland, which is unusual for Villa players, and he’s played seven times for the senior Danish national team. This feels like one of those signings where Lambert and Villa’s scouting staff make everyone look dumb for not buying Okore themselves. Nicklas Helenius – He’s tall. Like, 6’6” tall, which is only one inch short of ole’ Crouchy. The thing is… he doesn’t move like Crouchy. Watching this kid run (age 22), he’s neither knees and elbows, nor hulking. He moves like a smaller player who’s been stretched on a rack until he was tall enough to play in the NBA. This is a good thing. Also unlike Crouchy, Helenius takes free kicks, seems legitimately quick, and has a pretty reasonable skill set. Watch the highlight video below, and try and remember if you’ve ever seen Crouch pull away from central defenders in a foot race. We’ll see whether he gets refereed as badly as Crouch has over his career (there is a huge anti-tall-player bias among referees), but he seems like he’ll provide another good, dynamic option up front. It’s not like he was hidden, either. He was the Danish Superliga player of the year, scored 14 non-penalty goals in 33 matches, and still only cost £1.3M. And as noted, Okore played in the Champions’ League last year. I’ve mentioned how much I appreciate their scouting work, right? [youtube id="5bR5WVbTtL4" width="633" height="356"] The goal for number 7 in this highlight real is preeeeetty sick. [Edit- the video I'm referencing was deleted. I found another - the highlight I mean is at around 1:30 here.] I’m also trying to imagine teams marking both Helenius and Benteke late in games during set pieces. Oh, and add Vlaar and Okore (who is built like a redwood tree) to that. That will be fun to watch. Aleksandar Tonev – He’s 23, plays for the Bulgarian national team, and plied his trade for Lech Poznan (they of the famous celebration) in Poland last year. In 22 starts, he was substituted off 20 times. That is the sum total of the information at my disposal. I got bupkis here, kids. Leandro Bacuna- A 21-year-old box-to-box midfielder from the Netherlands, Bacuna came cheap (just under £1M), and is another excellent prospect. Much more detailed information is available here, where Mat Kendrick picked Michiel Jongsma’s brain for all the relevant deets. Antonio Luna – A 22-year-old left back, who was owned by Sevilla, but saw most of his playing time on loan with Mallorca last year. Aaaand that’s all I know. Conclusion I know last year was stressful for Villa fans, but they have to admit it was a lot more exciting than watching the team under Alex McLeish. 47 goals scored! 3 points better than the terribad 38 they earned under the dour Scot. Heart attacks nearly every single week! What’s not to love? This year should be a bit less stressful and more fun. The talent level in the team is significantly better than it was last year, and Paul Lambert is a good manager. They aren’t through with the transition process – there’s still some older, overpaid flotsam to get rid of, and they could use another star and more depth – but this team has more in common with the good squads under Martin O’Neill than the last two years of relegation terror. While I wasn’t entirely sold on Benteke’s performance last year, he’s an undeniable physical presence, and good enough to win a few games practically by himself. Adding better bodies around him, which they have done, should ease the burden on the big Belgian and allow him to be a bit more efficient in his play. Bacuna and Helenius seem like excellent value finds, and combined with Agbonlahor + Weimann, Villa can cause teams problems on the offensive end this year. This is by far the best group of attacking players Lambert has ever worked with. The defense was a major weakness, but one that was exacerbated by injuries, especially in mid-season when they conceded 15 in three matches around the Christmas holiday. Okore and Luna will help with that, as should another season of maturation for what again looks like the youngest team in the Premiership. After last year, this all probably looks wildly optimistic, but I feel fairly secure that Villa have turned a corner now, and are on their way up. Midtable security and maybe a decent cup run is easily within their reach. [youtube id="7xl7OtPuOhA" width="633" height="356"] Metrics Appendix Shot Dominance is a measure of how many shots a team concedes versus how many they take themselves. This measure is useful in predicting where teams will end up in the table at the end of the season. It’s not perfect, but it is useful. It falls down a bit when faced with unique offensive systems like at Barcelona and Manchester United under Alex Ferguson, where they take fewer shots overall than you expect from great teams, but the chances they create are significantly more likely to score. PDO is a measure of how well a team converts shots on the offensive end and saves shots on the defensive end. Good teams tend to post high levels of PDO and bad teams low levels over time, but there is a huge regression to the mean with this measure as well. Thus analysts tend to look at extremes of PDO as “luck factors.”
2013
EPL 2013-14 Season Preview - Aston Villa
By admin
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August 14, 2013