Howdy! After a four-year break, I'm returning to Statsbomb to track some of the notable predictions from luminaries such as Opta, Goldman Sachs, and a player to be named later. Four years ago Goldman did... poorly: https://statsbomb.com/2014/06/goldman-sachs-and-the-world-cup/ They dropped 29.77% of their bankroll. Oops! This time around I've cut their bankroll to $10,000 (with an open credit line), because losing large sums of money should be punished. (I'll excuse the snorts of laughter from those of you who know how it really works). The methodology here is the Kelly Criterion. Quite simply, these are the bets you would make to maximize your bankroll growth if you believed the numbers you published. Our good friends at Goldman Sachs have returned with more futbol proclamations. Some notable points:
- It's unclear that they are aware of where the World Cup is taking place. I'm as shocked as they are that Russia will be hosting, but let's take that into account with our projections, eh? They have Saudi Arabia as more likely to advance then Russia despite Russia being more than a goal favorite head-to-head.
- Betting on Spain, Argentina, France, Brazil, and Germany to be eliminated in the Group stage suggests they don't quite have a handle on just how good the elite teams are.
- Betting on England to not get out of the group stage is just good sense.
- I'm personally rooting for Japan, so let's hope Goldman wins that one
|Team||Advance Y/N||Risked||To Win||Result|
As for their championship futures:
Best of luck to our friendly Vampire Squid. (Header Photo Courtesy of the Press Association)