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Why Alex Ferguson Doesn’t Care About Your ExpG Models (PART TWO)

In part one of this piece, I said that Alex Ferguson’s 2012/13 Man United team drastically overachieved their expected goals total and I showed where almost all of the extra goals came from (in and around the edge of the six-yard box). In part two, I’m going to explain how United posted such an underwhelming […]


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Alex Ferguson Doesn’t Care About Your Expected Goals Models

The Past is a Foreign Country; That’s Why It’s So Easy to Critique When the facts have seeped out, when you’ve had time to think things through, it’s all so obvious: Germany had the best, deepest squad in the tournament; Luis Suarez can make any manager look like a genius; and “c’mon, you never realised he […]

Is Sizzling Southampton’s Start to the Season Sustainable?

I’ve been monitoring Southampton’s underlying numbers this year and I was disappointed that they failed to annihilate Villa as any boost from that game would have sugar-coated their already historically impressive totals.  As it is, it’s possible to show that they have had a start to the season that ranks very high in the pantheon […]

Moyes vs. Martinez – Which Everton Manager Has Been Better?

Yesterday, Gabriele Marcotti wrote a piece on ESPN FC about how difficult it is to evaluate managers. How a few lucky bounces can change the course of a career. How a wrong turn can leave can leave you marginalized, struggling to rebuild your reputation. He used the example of David Moyes, who until 18 months ago was […]

Where has Liverpool’s Press gone to?

Liverpool’s defensive problems this season have been well documented.  This very brief post isn’t going to address Liverpool’s defensive issues, but will concentrate on one very specific team issue; their lack of a high press this season. Last Season’s Press These are the PPDA values for each team last season in the EPL (the lower […]

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