Month: November 2019

“We haven’t covered Sheffield United in a while,” Goodman intoned from atop his editorial cathedra. “Find me an interesting Sheffield player to profile!” So, like one of the precogs in Minority Report, he lowered me into the viscous ooze of data. It was a trying experience. Everyone was . . . well, fine. There was a midfielder who led the team in progressive passing while only being mildly above average. There was a striker doing good work without any finishing luck to show for it. The centre backs were decent in the air. Nobody was bad in a way that could sustain 500 words of comedy or weird enough to justify a closer examination. The collective just worked.  If you’re a fan of the Blades and not a mercenary, ink-stained wretch, this is good news. Sheffield United are fifth in the table and have the underlying numbers of a team above the relegation fray. Chris Wilder is doing a great job with a side that is largely the same as last year’s Championship runner-up. How wonderful.  Defeated — a state this Gooner knows well — I returned to Goodman and grovelled. You can’t tell the story of Sheffield through the prism of a single player, I argued. You have to account for this entire, strange team.  Here goes. The Blades achieved promotion by taking high-quality shots from close range and restricting their opponents to speculative shots. They were slow, but engineered overloads and mismatches in open play (overlapping centre-backs, anyone?) and on set pieces. Something would have to give when transposing much of the same ageing squad to the Premier League, the assumption went, but what? The Premier League version of Sheffield United have retained the focus on shot quality. In fact, only Manchester City’s shots are of a higher average quality. The Blades shoot from closer than league average and take the third-fewest shots from outside the box. While they try shots of a quality that rivals Man City, they’re taking them almost as rarely as Crystal Palace. They’ve gone from taking a middling number of shots in the Championship to the second-fewest in the Premier League. This Polian-esque approach to scoring — take shots; not many; mainly from close-range — has thus far worked out to a serviceable thirteenth-best expected goals total in the league. Sheffield United’s parsimonious approach to shot creation is viable so long as the team finishes those chances at a normal rate. The Blades have largely accomplished that, turning 14.6 expected goals into 13 goals. Striker David McGoldrick, who leads the team in xG per 90 minutes by a healthy margin, has yet to score. (Despite missing three matches, he nearly leads the team in xG.) His rough start to the season has been mitigated by new signing Lys Mousset doubling his 1.49 xG. These may not be elite players, but one can reasonably expect them to fall in line with their underlying numbers.  If Sheffield United players ever finish normally, they’ll reveal this to be a classic Chris Wilder team. He is once again sharpening an edge to his side through set play design. The Blades are producing as many set play xG per match as in the Championship, which is good enough for fourth in the Premier League. Thus far, they’ve turned four expected goals off set pieces into two goals. This follows from the Blades’ other issues: You’d expect a team that sets out to cash in on set pieces yet has a misfiring striker to have a noticeable underperformance on set pieces. (Indeed, McGoldrick has generated 1.18 of his 2.87 xGs on set pieces.) Finishing luck notwithstanding, this is still a Chris Wilder attack.  While Sheffield United has doubled down on offensive shot quality this season, effectively becoming a more extreme version of Wilder’s Championship side, it has become more typical in defence. Last year, the Blades forced opponents to take the worst and longest shots while conceding the third-fewest shots. This season, the shot they're most likely to concede is from closer range and of a higher quality than league average. They have, however, managed to concede the seventh-fewest shots in the league. Being fine in most defensive metrics averages out the Premier League’s tenth-best defence in terms of xG. The Blades’ are less quirky in defence, but they’re more effective. Yet not as effective as the league-second-best nine goals they’ve conceded suggests. The Blades have wildly overperformed their 15.32 xG conceded to be tied for the best defensive record in the league after 12 matches. Goalkeeper Dean Henderson has conceded 3.75 fewer goals than the average goalkeeper faced with the same set of shots. Even if the Manchester United loanee continues to add value, the Blades can’t expect opponents to finish so woefully going forward. Nobody should panic when Sheffield United’s defence comes back down to earth; everything’s going according to plan.  At a very high level, Sheffield United has the hallmarks of a resolutely unfashionable Premier League side: an older, unheralded British squad; a manager who has paid his dues in the lower leagues; a solid defence; an attack that scores just enough goals. Is this team a Roy Hodgson fever dream? Is it Sean Dyche’s Burnley? (Wilder’s friendship with Dyche has encouraged the latter conclusion.) While well-intentioned, these comparisons mischaracterize Wilder’s managerial skills. His team may have a decent defence and adequate attack, but it’s doing a lot of interesting attacking work. To use a technical term: Chris Wilder is managing his ass off.  Instead of accepting that his team will simply be less good in all aspects, or fully bunkering down, Wilder has recalibrated his shot efficiency machine from the Championship. Much of these changes are happening between the penalty boxes, where the Blades are defending deeper (10th in the league, between Chelsea and Arsenal) and pressing less than their figures in the Championship. Only Newcastle allows its opponents to complete more passes before performing a defensive action. Only Newcastle and Burnley have less of the ball. At the same time, Oliver Norwood, who helped pass Brighton and Fulham to promotion in successive seasons only to drop back down to the Championships both times, is providing serviceable progressive passing in midfield. Overlapping centre back Jack O’Connell is still moving all the way down the left flank to pass in open play. Wilder’s team has less of the ball this season, but they have a clear plan whenever they're in possession.  To the extent that the Blades are currently understood as an exciting team, it is because they are fifth in the table. That is not something promoted teams are wont to do. That is also not something a team with the ninth-best xG difference is likely to do going forward. Even when the Blades drop back to mid-table, though, they should remain an exciting team, one with an interesting vision of how to make the leap from the Championship to the Premier League. Chris Wilder’s players may not appear individually exciting, but what he’s doing with them sure is.

Ah, the Eredivisie. Also known as the weirdest place in the European leagues to scour for talent.

One the one hand, last year the magical Champions League run of Ajax demonstrated the Dutch tradition of throwing young talent immediately in the mix can produce some of the most scintillating forms of football possible.

On the other hand, the all-attack, no-defense, super young Eredivisie provides us with a long list of (semi-) failed players whose sky-high production in Holland was more down to an utter lack of defensive solidity from Eredivisie clubs than a player's unique talent; at least, not one that would warrant a big transfer sum.

But given this is the international break and not much else is going on, the stoppage of (most) league play is an opportunity to run through the latest batch of young talent that's currently lighting up the Dutch domestic league.

The (next) USMNT 'chosen one' plays in Amsterdam

The Dutch national team is finding its groove under the guidance of Ronald Koeman, but is lacking decent options at right back. Many fans hoped that this 19-year-old fullback would prefer to don his national team caps for the Oranje, but Sergiño Dest, who grew up in the very Dutch suburb of Almere with an American father, chose to represent the United States. This means the U.S. national team can finally switch things up by giving minutes to a legitimately good player in defense.

Dest wasn’t a regular at Ajax last season, when the club from Amsterdam surprised friend and foe with their Champions League run, but the teenage fullback has broken through in a major way since the summer. That's a feat in and of itself. It's much harder for a youth system talent to make the leap to the senior squad at Ajax now than it was five years ago, because the average talent level in the senior team has risen dramatically. 

When you look at Dest’s game, the first thing that jumps out is his agility. The 19-year-old has lightning-quick footwork, and a lot of skill on the ball. It's too early to judge if Dest is capable of similar offensive output, but his skillset is reminiscent of that of Borussia Dortmund’s Achraf Hakimi. Ajax manager Erik ten Hag uses Dest as a very offensive-minded fullback on the right wing, who can overlap almost constantly, as the right-wingers in the squad, Hakim Ziyech and David Neres, are lefties who excel when they cut to the inside zones. Dest’s attacking role means he does a lot of his defending in the opposing half. As soon as the young USMNT player is forced into more ‘traditional’ defensive work around his own penalty area, he is at his most vulnerable.

Everyone knows about Ajax's extremely potent attack (43 goals in 13 league games). Yet, beyond the young USMNT fullback, there's another defensive talent worth highlighting, one having a standout season. Twenty-one-year old Lisandro Martínez was originally brought in as a left-footed centreback / leftback, but has rapidly developed into the team’s crucial defensive counterweight in midfield. The feistiness of the small Argentinian has already made him one of the fan favorites in the Johan Cruijff Arena this year.

The future of the Dutch offense resides in Eindhoven and Alkmaar

While Ajax and their star players receive most of the international attention, the most exciting individual player development is happening elsewhere in the Eredivisie. PSV striker Donyell Malen (20)—who signed for Eindhoven last year after a few years in the Arsenal academy - hit the ten goal mark on October 6th (!), which is ridiculous early even by Eredivisie standards. But while the hype around Malen, who made his international debut during the last break, has cooled off since he picked up an injury, the other monster striking talent of Dutch football has exploded. 

Myron Boadu, who plays up top in AZ Alkmaar's exciting young squad, has already scored 14 goals in all competitions this season. Which is incredible, considering he just returned from his second year-long injury. Oh, and . . . Boadu is still 18 years old. Like Malen, he combines elite acceleration with smart positioning and intuitive off-ball runs, and already seems fully aware of what smart shot selection entails. Which says a lot about him, but also about the analytically-driven playing style that his club AZ currently excels at.

Both Malen and Boadu also profit from playing together with an extremely promising playmaking talent. Boadu has an excellent rapport with twenty-year-old left-footed right-winger Calvin Stengs. Just like his teammate, Stengs also returned from a gruesome injury, and just like Boadu, the young playmaker was recently called up to the Dutch national team for the first time. Stengs, donning a Leroy Sané-like fro’, is not a natural goal-scorer or Speedy Gonzales-type winger, but his ball control, positional feel and in-game vision make him an intriguing prospect.

With PSV not winning their last six games—translation: they're in full-on crisis mode—Eredivisie fans are taking the rise of Mohammed ‘Mo’ Ihattaren for granted. Ihattaren is 17 years old, but his recent decision to commit to the Dutch national team instead of representing Morocco was greeted as a big win for the footballing future of Holland.

With reason: in the first league meeting between powerhouses Ajax and PSV, the diminutive teen playmaker was the best individual on the field. His team collapsing result-wise in recent weeks might be a blessing in disguise for Ihattaren. The young leftie was surrounded with almost Pulisic-esque hype—with the first of critical newspaper columns about him ‘losing the ball too much’ already being drafted—but now the focus has shifted more to his team’s situation. Ihattaren is a silky-smooth dribbler who’s good for two to three ‘wait, what?’ touch-passes per game. It will be interesting to see if over the next twenty to thirty games he can to keep transforming his immense on-ball talent into tangible productive output in the final third.

The low-key ‘can’t miss’ prospect

While the skillsets of Malen, Boadu, Stengs and Ihattaren cause mouths to drop open, the most solid young star attracts national attention for his prowess as a penalty-taker. And while, yeah, it is impressive that Teun Koopmeiners has dispatched all ten of his spot-kicks for AZ this season, the 21-year-old midfielder should warrant much more attention due to his impressive development as an all-around player.

The left-footed defensive midfielder is crucial to the build-up phase of AZ’s pretty ball-playing style; his solid distribution as a passer is evident and his ability as a ball-winner in defense is just as crucial. While the four offensive talents mentioned above are going to compete for the two attacking spots in the national team alongside Memphis Depay and Georginio Wijnaldum, Koopmeiners might be able to silently slide in as the number one choice to accompany Frenkie de Jong in holding midfield.

Brentford are getting a fun-fun-fun player

Brentford completed the signing of Halil Dervisoglu before the 2019-20 season began, but the agreement states the Dutch-Turkish striker from Sparta Rotterdam will join the Championship side in January 2020. But even Brentford, who paid three million Euros for the 19-year-old attacker, might be surprised at the season Dervisoglu is having. The young striker clearly excels at two things: dribbling and pressing. It’ll be fun to see if these qualities translate from the mid-tier Eredivisie to the upper-mid-tier of the Championship. Which is, in all honesty, quite the leap in the level of competition.

In the summer of 2019 Neal Maupay, Adam Webster and Daniel James transfered from Championship clubs to the Premier League. In the summer of 2018, it was David Brooks and James Maddison who trod that path. There are many reasons why the Championship is regularly termed as a “Premier League 2”, but perhaps the biggest is that it serves as a finishing school for young players before they make the step up to the big time. And that’s just the permanent transfers. There are also the rough diamonds not yet considered ready for first team action at their parent clubs who get loaned out to this level, hoping that the competitive balance and regular football will sharpen up their talents for the top tier. It’s a strategy that paid off particularly handsomely for Chelsea with Tammy Abraham, Mason Mount, Fikayo Tomori and Reece James all returning from starring loan spells in England’s second tier last season to make positive impacts on the Chelsea first team. There are plenty of candidates making strong individual cases this time out to follow that well worn path. Let’s assess some of them, finishing with those staking a claim for a permanent move, but starting with the loan stars.

It’s a temporary move for a reason

Chelsea could quite easily see another couple of young, English loanees featuring in their first team squad next season if Conor Gallagher and Izzy Brown keep their form up. Gallagher’s shown a promising all round game in central midfield, reliably putting in a shift out of possession and also possessing the quality to help newly promoted Charlton transition from defence to attack. It’s his knack of arriving late in the box and finding space in dangerous areas – not unlike a certain Frank Lampard used to - that has really caught the eye so far though, already notching 5 goals from central midfield. Gallagher has the highest expected goals total of all centre midfielders in the Championship this season and it’s not difficult to see why from his shot map and the positions he’s getting into. Brown has also made a positive impression in his appearances at also-newly-promoted Luton, but as opposed to Gallagher it’s in the chance creation phase where Brown has stood out. With five assists in 774 minutes, Brown’s currently assisting a goal every other game, and the underlying numbers are robust enough that that rate could feasibly continue. He’s making more key passes (passes that create shots) per 90 minutes than any other player in the league - with and without set pieces included - and the quality of those chances are sufficiently high as well: Brown also tops the list for expected goals assisted per 90 minutes. Brighton will be equally pleased with centre half prodigy Ben White. This is White’s third loan, with the young defender progressing up the pyramid each time. Starting with an impressive full season in League Two at Newport County in 2017-18, he then had a half-season at Peterborough the following year, before now embarking on a full season in a Leeds side challenging at the top of the Championship under the tutelage of one of the most highly respected coaches in the game. It’s fair to say his current career trajectory so far has been a steady upward curve. Part of the tightest defence in the second tier, White has been earning rave reviews for his performances at the heart of the Leeds back line, adapting quickly to the demands that have been placed on him by Marcelo Bielsa’s system. Tasked with playing in a high defensive line, White has excelled in the front foot defending style, making more interceptions than any other Championship centre back by some distance. As well as being cool and composed in one on one duels, the Brighton loanee also has a trait for driving forward with the ball to set Leeds attacks on their way. For a first spell at this level, it’s been an impressive start. Also making a strong impression in his first season at this level is Grady Diangana. Though he already enjoyed a breakthrough season at West Ham in the previous campaign, making six starts and seventeen Premier League appearances overall for the Hammers in 2018-19, this is Diangana’s first loan spell away from East London and at this rate it’s not looking likely he’ll need another one. The 21 year old has dazzled on the left wing for West Brom, displaying flair and trickery but also real intelligence and sharp decision making in the final third, laying on countless chances for his West Brom team mates. Diangana is some way in front of the rest of the league for xG assisted from open play but, curiously, he’s a bit further down the list when looking at the volume of key passes. Look at the map of chances he has laid on this season though and you can figure out why. Glancing at this and all of a sudden you might think that it’s easy to create chances in the danger zone on a regular basis. It isn’t, Diangana is just making it look that way.

Ready for the step up, but it’ll cost you

If I don’t mention it now, you’ll scroll through this list and wonder why on earth Ebere Eze isn’t on the list – that’s because he’s already been given the StatsBomb treatment last month which you can read here. For the third season in succession, a glance at the top of the Championship goalscorer charts will show you Jarrod Bowen’s name. What separates him from his contemporaries in the list is the fact that Bowen isn’t an out and out goalscoring centre forward. He’s an out and out goalscoring winger. Taking a somewhat unconventional route to the second tier coming through the youth ranks at Hereford United in the non-league, Bowen made eight appearances at the end of the 2013-14 season at the age of 17 but was released that summer when Hereford were expelled from the division for financial mismanagement. Having caught the eye of several scouts, Bowen was picked up by Hull. Fast forward a couple of years and the winger was arguably the main beneficiary of Hull’s relegation to the Championship in 2016-17. He broke into the side and top scored in his first full season in Hull’s first team in 2017-18, netting 14 goals in the Championship, and went even better last season to net 22 times. With nine goals and two assists already this season, it’s getting to the point where Bowen’s form is impossible for Premier League clubs to ignore. A real connoisseur of the out-to-in run from the right-hand side and with a skillset maximised in Hull’s counter attacking system, his contract situation makes possible January interest almost inevitable. There’s a new bumper contract on the table from the Tigers but, as things stand, Bowen’s deal technically ends in Summer 2020, though Hull have an option to extend it a year which they’ll almost certainly exercise. Undoubtedly several clubs will be keeping close eye on the progress of those negotiations. Another player who’s starred on the wing in recent seasons is Ollie Watkins, but the real curiosity over Watkins is down to his positional development. Premier League sides were already reportedly keeping tabs on him due to his performances on the flank for Brentford, but Watkins has, this season, started as a central striker and, by the returns we’ve seen so far, anyone would think he’d spent his entire career there. Second only to Aleksandr Mitrovic in the scoring charts, Watkins has adapted quickly to the different demands placed on him by playing centrally and leading the line and the move can only have added several million pounds to his price tag, given that interested clubs will now be bidding for a player not just with a proven track record out wide but now also as a #9. Watkins already possessed a well-developed all-round game due to his history playing in deeper positions on the wing and, though it took a few games for him to get up to speed, the move up front has meant he can still utilise his link-play and creative spark, but he can now also maximise his not-insignificant goal threat by getting between the posts a lot more and playing a larger role in finishing chances rather than in the build-up to them. Unless the real big bucks get put on the table, a January move seems unlikely with Brentford poised for a promotion push, but at this rate it’s hard to imagine Watkins will be playing in the Championship next season regardless of whether the Bees succeed in going up or not. We won’t dwell on this last player for too long, but it’s impossible to ignore when a 16 year old breaks into the first team, stays in the first team, and does this. For a couple of years now, Jude Bellingham has been quietly spoken of by those in the know as a potential superstar when he makes it into the senior team. Well now we’re seeing the fruit of that already and it’s obvious the hype was not misplaced. To be clear, Bellingham doesn’t turn 17 until next summer. It doesn’t need saying that it’s a case of when and not if the youngster makes the move to the top of the game but for now, Birmingham fans will try to enjoy him while they can.

Gianluigi Buffon has dominated in goal for the Italian national team for twenty years. Until he retired from international duties in 2018, there was practically no room for another goalkeeper unless he was injured. But, just as Buffon was approaching the end of his career in the National team, another young goalkeeper with the same name emerged with arrogance: Gianluigi Donnarumma. Donnarumma's precocious talent earned him the role of AC Milan's starting goalkeeper in 2015/16 before he was 17 years old. His debut in the National Team came as a result in 2016 and as soon as Buffon decided to say enough, for Luigi Di Biagio first and Roberto Mancini after there was no doubt about who should be the legendary goalkeeper's heir. Good performances in the 15 games with the Azzurri jersey have  cemented his place. In the meantime, however, the decline of Milan, especially during this season and the emergence of other Italian goalkeepers, young and less young, also allow us to question his position. Should we expect another twenty years of domination between the posts from another Gianluigi, or will there be opportunities for other goalkeepers, too?

To answer the question, I used StatsBomb data to examine the performance of the main Italian goalkeepers this season. Alex Meret (22), Napoli

After alternating with David Ospina during the past season, Alex Meret has earned the trust of Carlo Ancelotti, becoming the undisputed owner of Napoli’s goal. Meret, who is two years older than Donnarumma, joined from Udinese last season, for a reported fee of €35 million, after two years on loan at SPAL. He has already been called up to the National Team multiple times (starting in 2016), but he has not yet had the opportunity to make his debut with Italy. Napoli’s season is not going according to plans and things could go sideways anytime, but their goalkeeper is not the one to point your finger at. Although Meret is not having an amazing season, his performances are consistent with expectations.  So far, he saved 0.12 goals above average in total (0.01 per 90), a metric obtained by subtracting the number of goals conceded form the total post-shot expected goals of non-penalty shots on target faced, good enough for 14th best goalkeeper in the league among those with at least 600 minutes played. Meret also saved one penalty out of the three he faced, so accounting for that, the total number of goals saved above average increases to 0.80.  That's a decent output so far, but far from the highs of last season, when he saved 4.27 goals above average or 0.30 per 90 minutes, penalties excluded.  A decline that may also have been due to the increase in the average quality of the shots on target he faced, which rose to 0.294 xG on average (+22.5% compared to 2018/19). StatsBomb collect also Positioning Errors, a metric that measures how far from the optimal position for facing a shot the Goalkeeper is on average. In this regard, Meret has been one of the best in the league during his young Serie A career: his 1.53 PErr is an elite value and good enough for top-6 in Italy. Claims or CCAA%, a stylistic metric that describes how likely the Goalkeeper is to attempt to claim a claimable pass, versus the average Goalkeeper Attempted Claim Rate, tell us Meret is not more aggressive than the average goalkeeper when it comes to claims. Meret is the goalkeeper who plays the fewest long balls in the league (3.78 per 90) and whose pass length is the shortest in the league (29.59) and from his radar, when can also say he is confident when distributing the ball short and will pass to team-mates under pressure as Napoli tend to build up from the back in order to drag opponents out of position and open space to make the play progress. That's an attitude that makes him really suitable for the brand of football that Roberto Mancini established within the national side.

Salvatore Sirigu (32), Torino

Torino’s goalkeeper Salvatore Sirigu, 12 years older than Donnarumma and 9 years younger than Buffon, seems destined to be the second-choice goalkeeper of the National team for the totality of his career. But, Torino's strong 2018-19 season could launch him and put him in serious competition with the goalkeeper of Milan, especially given that a good portion of their surprisingly successful campaign depended on his saves. Sirigu conceded 35 non-penalty goals in 2018-19, saving an astonishing 8.68 goals above average (0.24 per 90), the second-best total in the league, topped just by Alessio Cragno (9.93 GSAA), who himself would be under consideration for this list if he was fit. He also saved two out of four penalties, raising the total to almost 10 goals saved above average (9.58). This season his team is doing worse, but the ex-Paris Saint Germain goalie has kept his excellent form averaging an even better 0.32 GSAA per 90 and a save percentage of 79% (3% higher than last season). In terms of positioning errors, he is as good as Meret, but while Napoli’s keeper barely plays the long ball, Sirigu is the keeper who attempts it the most (9.59 per 90), with a success rate of 53% (4th in the league). His distribution style could be a point against him, but Sirigu does have experience playing in a possession-based team while at PSG and he is a proven reliable goalkeeper of a caliber that would be starting for many, if not most, European national teams.

Pierluigi Gollini (24), Atalanta

This is the third full season at Atalanta for Pierluigi Gollini, but the first in which he is the undisputed owner of the first choice mantle in goal. Gian Piero Gasperini and the board of Atalanta decided to hand him the job this summer, and they certainly have no reason to regret that decision. Indeed, Etrit Berisha, who Gollini split time with last season, performed worse than the average keeper last season, while Gollini  has rewarded the faith shown in him this year by saving 1.36 goals above average since being handed the full time job. He has faced fewer shots on target than Meret and Sirigu, but the average xG per shot of the ones he has faced is way higher at 0.36. That explains why despite his 68% save percentage being the lowest in the league, he's on this list. Given the shots he's faced, an average keeper would only be making saves 64% of the time. In comparison to the other two keepers examined, he is more aggressive on claims, but still ranks just 10th in the league in CCAA%. What really stands out is his goalkeeping aggressive distance, which measures how far from the goal the keeper is coming to perform defensive actions. Only Donnarumma performs his actions further from goal than Gollini, emphasizing that not only is Gollini playing in a system that encourages the keeper to be aggressive, but that he is not scared of leaving the posts to perform sweeper keeper actions. Another number related to his modern interpretation of the role is his passing percentage under pressure, 71%, the highest among Italian goalkeepers in the league this season. For comparison, Meret completes just 52% of his pressured passes. Gollini isn't simply focused on short distribution either as he attempts 6.13 long balls, while his average pass length is 39.49. Gollini is currently an outsider for the national team job, as he still has yet to debut with the “Maglia Azzurra”. He is probably ranked fourth in Mancini’s preferences, but due to his steady improvement and the modern traits of his style could be a serious candidate to feature the future international competitions.

Gianluigi Donnarumma (20), AC Milan

Last but not least is the goalkeeper who is currently the starter of the Italian National Team, Gianluigi Donnarumma. It is impressive to think that at just 20 years old he already has 185 appearances with AC Milan, and has been their top choice in goals since 2015-16.  What stands out immediately from his radar is how Donnarumma has performed so far this season exactly like the average goalkeeper: he conceded 14 non-penalty goals from a post-shot xG of 13.96. However, he's also added two penalty saves, which increases the total to 0.93 GSAA, penalties included. Last season he saved 5.07 GSAA, and his average of 0.16 per 90 was the 5th best in the league among keepers with 1800 minutes played. In a season where everything is going wrong for AC Milan, Donnarumma remains one of the few bright spots. While it's true shot stopping is arguably the most important quality of a goalkeeper, Donnarumma has been elite in every other goalkeeper metric. His impressive physical presence and athleticism means he can show impressive confidence when it comes to claiming the ball: he has a CCAA of 11% the highest value among goalkeepers in the top-5 European leagues. He has also developed sweeper-keeper’s attitudes with just Ederson Moraes and Roman Bürki performing defensive action further from their goal than him in all Europe. He plays 6.87 long balls per 90, with an average pass length of 36.25., but he plays more open play passes than Gollini and Meret on average (19.41, 18.40 and 17.45, respectively). Despite the volume, his passing choices are often safe as he passes the ball into danger less than one time out of ten times. Concerning his passing, it is interesting to highlight how his positive outcome score is the highest of the goalkeepers analyzed meaning that the possessions he is involved in tend to be valuable for the team. By definition, a positive outcome is recorded when any of the following events happening within 20 seconds of a goalkeeper's pass (for that GK's team): free kicks earned in the attacking half, corner kicks earned, shots attempted, and penalties earned.  Probably this won't be his career season in terms of shot stopping, but at 20, Donnarumma is the best and most complete goalkeeper in Serie A along with Wojciech Szczęsny. That's why he's the first choice of the National team, ahead of two excellent young goalkeepers like Meret and Gollini, both older than him but with less experience in terms of games played. The only one who could challenge his status is Sirigu, who has more caps than him and is clearly the best shot-stopper of the league over the last year, but for the next twenty years, the goalkeeper of the national team could continue to be named Gianluigi.   Header image courtesy of the Press Association

Football is fast, football is fleeting. The current German footballing landscape is a prime example of that. Die Mannschaft won the World Cup in 2014 with a starting line-up that featured four centre backs. And now . . . now Joachim Löw’s national squad is running out of options at the heart of defence.  The (forced) departure of the aging Jérôme Boateng and Mats Hummels from the German national team, this was supposed to herald the start of a new era. During a horrid World Cup in 2018, counterattacks by Mexico, Sweden, and South Korea embarrassed Germany’s back line more than a few times. This partly down to the fact that Boateng and Hummels had lost a step, speed-wise, but the risky, possession-oriented team structure was as much the culprit for creating vulnerability in transition. The result was an attack that couldn’t outscore the mistakes of their shoddy defence enough to even make it out of the group phase. So Löw decided to thoroughly shake things up. Former mainstays like Hummels, Boateng, Thomas Müller and Sami Khedira were no longer needed. Löw also shifted to a modern 3-4-2-1 as their primary formation.  But waving goodbye to the former best centre back pairing in the world, whilst simultaneously shifting to a formation that requires not two, but three central defenders, has been tough for Die Mannschaft. Especially now that the only centre back who wasn’t surrounded by any form of doubt, Bayern München’s Niklas Süle, has been ruled out for the upcoming European Championship with a worrisome knee injury. Add to that that their second-most trustworthy central defender, Chelsea’s Antonio Rüdiger, has played 45 competitive minutes this season after he picked up a pelvis injury shortly after recovering from knee surgery. So yeah, not great. To complete this holy mess, Emre Can, the Juventus midfielder who Löw frequently plays in the back three, got sent off in the last qualification match against Estonia (an 0-3 victory) after just 14 minutes of play, so he’ll miss some valuable in-game practice time in the upcoming match against Belarus. It also doesn't help that Can rarely starts under Juventus manager Maurizio Sarri. Where does Germany go from here? Keep in mind that (A) Löw still isn’t in the business of calling players back who he deemed no longer necessary in the past — which rules out not only the return of Hummels, but also makes bring back the Bender Brothers of Bayer Leverkusen an unlikely scenario — and (B) the national team manager is likely to stick with the current 3-4-2-1 formation, because of the positive effects it has on the production of attacking stars Serge Gnabry, Marco Reus and (the truly on-fire) Timo Werner. At the very minimum, they’ll need five players who can play as a centre back on their roster. Pencilling in Rüdiger seems a bit optimistic, judging by the somewhat worrisome reports coming from Chelsea in regards to his recovery. Besides converted centre back Can, Löw has called up four central defenders for the upcoming two qualifiers. Let’s take a look at those four first, then discuss the other candidates hiding in plain sight in the Bundesliga.

Current call-ups

Matthias Ginter (Borussia Mönchengladbach) Borussia Mönchengladbach sit atop the league table after ten matchdays, and are fully back in the mix in their Europa League group after edging out AS Roma in stoppage time on Thursday (2-1). Ginter is likely the first defender that manager Marko Rose writes down on his team sheet, and his individual numbers of the current season look good.  What’s not to love, right? Well, whilst their attacking output and hardcore pressing seem to be fully legit, Gladbach has profited from some sloppy finishing by opposing teams thus far. Ginter is probably the best ball-playing centre back Löw currently has at his disposal, but he can be coaxed into unnecessary long balls, something the national team manager is not a fan of. His average mobility means that Löw has to bring in more athletic types at the other two central defending positions when he starts Ginter. Jonathan Tah (Bayer Leverkusen) Tah was nationally ridiculed after a couple of bumbling errors in Germany’s recent home loss (2-4) to the Netherlands. As a true Tah stan, all I have to say is this: As the only non-converted-from-another-position and athletically superior defender in the backline at Bayer Leverkusen, Tah has to do a lot of cleaning up given manager Peter Bosz’ super aggressive pressing style. I mean, look at this: That is not a centre back-friendly playing style, as it leaves a lot of space to cover behind the back line and produces many situations where a central defender has to step in to fill the gap of a midfielder who is further upfield committed to a wave of pressing. If we take a gander at Tah’s individual numbers, we get a very different perspective than the one we got from his unfortunate outing against the Dutch. Tah, despite those high profile gaffes, does a lot of work. Niklas Stark (Hertha BSC) At 6 foot 4 and almost 200 lbs, Stark is a big guy. Almost as big as his Mannschaft teammate Tah. But the Berlin defender is much more of the ball-playing central defender, surprisingly quick and agile for someone of his build. Stark has proved himself an apt contributor to Hertha’s build-up play. However, his style raises questions about whether Stark’s skillset is complementary to those of the other German centre backs. Stark has fine foot-speed, but would not be your ideal choice as an athletic, space-eating counterweight to the slower Ginter. Additionally, despite his size, he's not particularly imposing in the air. Robin Koch (SC Freiburg) We covered Koch, his team Freiburg and his surprisingly well-playing central defending partner Dominique Heintz extensively in last week’s Bundesliga column. Koch’s size, speed, ball-playing skills and weaknesses are similar to that of Stark. But the 23-year-old Freiburg defender does seem to have leapfrogged his 24-year-old national teammate from Berlin in Löw’s backline hierarchy. 

The long shots

‘Style breakers’: Kevin Vogt (Hoffenheim) and Julian Weigl (Borussia Dortmund) There’s some logic behind Löw not calling up the best two available Bundesliga centre backs that remain. Both Vogt and Weigl are former central midfielders who’ve been converted to centre back: Vogt as the passing metronome in the middle of Julian Nagelsmann’s (and now Alfred Schreuder’s) back three at Hoffenheim, Weigl as a-better-alternative-than-the-ones-we-have by Lucien Favre at Dortmund.  As you can see from the radars above, these two are very good at passing the ball. But a big part of the big rebrand that Löw and his officials at the German football federation wanted to establish after the World Cup debacle is a more dynamic playing style that's less dependent on possessional play. Even though Hoffenheim employs some forms of direct football, and the flashy transition skills of Reus and Sancho are one of the few things keeping Dortmund semi-afloat right now, both Vogt and Weigl would fit better in a patient attacking style. 

The weird, out-of-the-box option: Benjamin Hübner (Hoffenheim)

Which brings us to the one candidate you truly didn’t expect to find in this article. Hübner is already 30 years old, and it took until he was 26 years old for him to make his first minutes at the top level of German club football, at promoted FC Ingolstadt in 2015. While the solid Hoffenheim defender might not have the same level of technical skill or individual talent that most German internationals have, he does bring two valuable qualities to the table. First, he is a defence-first type of centre back, but not the type that frantically hooves the ball upfield blindly at the first sign of pressure.  Second, Hübner is — wait for it — left-footed! Rüdiger, Can, Tah, Ginter, Stark and Koch — even Vogt and Weigl, for that matter — are all righties. Which, okay, that's fine. But it's not ideal when playing three at the back. The left-sided central defender, when right-footed, will always find himself in a bit of a jam when the spaces tighten up during build-up play. That alone should see Hübner considered for the national team. If Löw is going to call up five, or even six, centre backs for his 2020 Euros roster, there should be room for at least one leftie.