Month: August 2013

By Ben Pugsley

1) Monday Night Football

Remember a time when Monday Night Football was an afterthought? It is very far from an afterthought now. In fact, MNF is easily Sky's best football feature of the week. Ed Chamberlain anchors the program nicely, never overbearing or too talkative. The tech set-up is marvelous, but let's be honest - this is the Gary Neville show.

Neville is punchy in his analysis, short and concise in his explanations of the intricacies of the game of football. But it wasn't always this way. I distinctly recall Neville's debut on MNF, it was Man City v Swansea, and Neville looked nervous and uneasy, unsure of himself.

Neville has come a long way since then, and this gives us hope that Carragher can follow a similar path - initial nervousness and a steep learning curve, before finally settling in and becoming a pundit who can teach us as much about the game as Neville already has.

This is excellent.

2) Arsenal Win!

Panic over!

After an Arsenal loss in week 1 panic was rife. Wenger was lambasted for his failure to spend, the team wasn't good enough. Now, these arguments may have merit when looking at the bigger picture, but surely we can't draw such conclusions after a single game. Or even two games.

Arsenal may need to strengthen in order to compete for a place in the top 4 and the club does have issues when playing against quality opposition.

What Wenger excels at is setting up his teams to crush sub-par opposition.

Arsenal's Fixture List With Opponents Shots on Target Ratio At The Time Of Fixture.

In 2012/13 Arsenal were a fine team when playing against opposition with a SoTR of less than 0.50. But problems arose when Arsenal played teams with a SoTR >0.50, a W 1 D 7 L 5 is testament to that.

In short, Arsenal's opening day loss to Villa may have simply been 'one of those results', Arsenal's win against Fulham was a return to normality and was completely expected. We shouldn't have read too much into the opening day loss and we shouldn't read too much into Arsenal's away win against what will likely be a sub-par shots team.

The above graph poses a question, though: Is Arsenal's failure to hold their own against >par SoTR teams a fault with Wenger's tactics, or do Arsenal simply not have enough quality players?

3) Final Third Passing Ratio

As usual, I am counting a huge amount of statistics for the Premier League in 2013/14. One of the new categories this year is Final Third Passes. Now if you count final third passes for and against we can calculate a plus/minus number. We can also calculate a teams ratio of final third passe. If you set your database up correctly you can also calculate home and away and moving averages for final third passes.

Here's what I have so far:

Final Third Passes

In the coming weeks I will explain in a little more detail just how we can use final third passes to evaluate a team strength.

4) Man City And Corners

Joe Hart and his Manchester City team-mates are taking a little heat right now for the 3-2 loss at Cardiff. That loss featured two Cardiff goals from just three corners. You probably don't need me to tell you how rare conceding two goals from corners is in a single game. It's rare. By my count, Man United (away at Reading) and Man City (vs Ajax) are just two of the teams who managed the infamous feat last year.

Both of Cardiff's corner goals were created by excellent deliveries into the box, with Hart looking to be particularly culpable for Cardiff's goal that gave the Bluebirds the lead. I don't think anyone should over-react to the two goals that were conceded. Zabaletta switched off for Cardiff's first corner goal and Lescott, surprisingly, was beaten to the ball on the second corner goal. Neither of those lapses by Zabaletta or Lescott are common occurences.

Shit happens, conceding two set piece goals in a single game likely won't happen again all season. More on City defending those corneres can be found here (link).

5) Newcastle Zzzzz

There are a lot of interesting things going on at Newcastle, Kinnear, lack of transfer spend, Pardew's job security. Unfortunately none of these things are taking place on the pitch, where Newcastle are doing their best 'early season Sunderland 12/13 impression'.

Newcastle have had just one shot on target in ~190 minutes of football this season. I can forgive them for the away trip to Man City, red card and hammerings et cetera, but West Ham were an easy game for a home team in 12/13 and I suspect they may well be an easy game once again in 2013/14.

Newcastle are at home to Fulham next Saturday. If Newcastle don't win, or at least put on an improved offensive display against another poor travelling team, then the polite early season atmosphere may become more toxic than darkly humorous.

6) One Nil To The Arsenal Spurs & Liverpool

Spurs and Liverpool both have six points on the board from their two games played, and although both teams may have been far from impressive in racking up their points totals, a win is a win. It is also worth noting that the early part of any season is a minefield. We have promoted teams, new managers and new players to bed in to new systems.

The newness can make early season form difficult to predict and considering Tottenham have the Bale distraction and about 39 new players to bed in, their results are just fine. Liverpool, well, they have new signings to integrate and are currently playing without their best player who, despite some of the protestations of the analytics community, will improve this team upon his return.

A win is a win at this early stage, worry about the underlying performance indicators after 7 or 8 games or so.

7) Gareth Bale

The Welsh Ronaldo. The shots volume monster. The one man team. I have written more words about Gareth Bale in 10 Points than any other player. I have been a huge admirer of Bale since I first created this weekend round-up - I implored City to buy him as early as last January - and these may be some of the last words I write about the player for the transfer deadline is approaching fast.

You know, Bale may shoot too much, he may be a greedy bastard, some of his goals scored may regress from last seasons high, but I still think this is a beauty of a player. He is 24, has all the physical skills that are so pleasing on the eye and Tottenham, although they have bought well, may have a hard time replacing his performance.

This (link) by the super smart @halfagain touches on the difficultly of replacing a outstanding player:

However, there’s another measure of value in football, one that’s ultimately more important: value per minute of available playing time. While their respective contracts and transfer purchase prices (Jovetic + Negredo < Cavani in total), will likely prove better value per dollar, and perhaps higher in absolute production, it requires minutes from two putative starter-ish players, rather than the minutes from one position.

If we replace Cavani with Bale and Jovetic & Negredo with Lamela and Soldado then the above quote clearly highlights the difficulty in replacing a superstars performance per minutes played. It may take two players to replace Bale's performance and that likely means an minutes played efficiency loss for Tottenham.

I'm gonna miss Bale, 40 yard shots and all. He is a rare, exciting talent who is technically out of this world and the Premier League will be a poorer without him. Or......he may well stay at Spurs for one more season. My Lord.

8) Shots On Target % Rating

Bear with me on this one. Over the last year or so I have ran Shooting Accuracy% (SoT%) for and against, this is simply shots on target/total shots. Shooting Accuracy% (SoT%) measures how efficient a team is ast getting it's shots on net and preventing the opposition from doing likewise.

This is where Shots On Target % Rating comes in. To calculate the rating we take each teams SoT% for and add it to that teams SoT% prevention number (if the opposition has 10 shots and 3 of them are on target the prevention% is 70%).

Add the SoT% to the SoT Prevention% and we end up with a table like the one below.

Week 2

Yes, Tottenham's number is correct. League average rating is 100, and although we are only two weeks into the season some teams have a nice rating number.

This may well be something I come back to once a few (8) more game weeks have elapsed. I have these numbers by Game State too, which may well tell us some cool things about score effects and defensive shells. Again, we'd need more data first.

Any thoughts?

9) Kolo Toure

I don't really know what is going on here, but I liked it. Via @Green_Scouser Obviously I was struggling to fill point #9!

10) Goal Of The Week

An honourable mention to Danny Sturridge but Dzeko takes it. A slight deflection?

The Summer of 2013 in football analytics was dominated by strikers shots performance and their conversion%'s.  Colin Trainor and Constantinos Chappas created their Expected goals metric (link), the 11tegen11 was the first to look at expected goals and, more recently,  Devin Pleuler has begun tweeting out information on expected chance quality.

Added to those smart pieces of work was information on shot quality and shot location (Colin Trainor) and all in all it was a tremendous leap forward in the investigation of quantifying striker performance. The one question I have with some of this work is repeatability or test-retest reliability over a number of seasons.

Now, I know it's not an entirely fair question as a lot of the data that these new metrics are built with is, well, relatively new. We don't have 4 years of shot location data or shot placement data. Still, I wanted to know something about the ability of a striker to repeat a previous seasons performance. I have a little historical data on strikers so I thought I would take a look at which aspects of a strikers performance are repeatable and which are not.

These are the metrics I will be focusing on, all penalty goals and shots are removed:

• Scoring% (goals/SoT)
• Shooting Accuracy% (SoT/Total Shots)
• Goals Per 90
• Assists Per 90
• Shots Per 90
• Shots On Target Per 90

I searched through my database for strikers who played in the Premier League in consecutive seasons (year 1 to year 2) and found 174 data points, some of the outlying data points will be removed on certain charts. What we are looking for is a relationship between a strikers performance by a given metric between yr 1 and yr 2 (2011/12 to 2012/13 for example).

In short, are players who post, say, a high scoring% in year 1 likely to repeat that performance in year 2. There are some interesting results. I'll start with the metrics that have the strongest year to year correlation.

Shots Per 90. R2=0.435

Shots per 90 has an R2 of 0.435 and although the correlation isn't all that impressive, it's the strongest correlation between year 1 and year 2 of any of our metrics listed in the introduction. If you are going to pick out any aspect of a strikers performance that may be repeatable year-on-year then shots per 90 should be the metric you use.

A striker is more likely to reproduce his shot volume year on year than any other countable aspect of his performance.

Shot On Target Per 90. R2=0.234

Shots on target per 90 is is the second most repeatable aspect of a strikers performance, although the correlation between year 1 and year 2 has dropped sharply. SoT per 90 has a correlation of 0.242, and although that number is far from impressive, it's out of this world compared to some of the correlations you will see shortly.

I've long said that shots and shots on target are the two metrics I would prefer to use in order to predict a strikers future performance. I wouldn't want to use goals scored or scoring% for we know these regress heavily. The correlations above, and below, bear this out.

Goals Per 90. R2=0.048

Outliers have been stripped out.

This chart is simply all over the place, the year-to-year correlation is virtual non-existent. There are obviously outliers here, players who can reproduce goals per 90 year-on-year but those players are mighty rare, even in the Premier League.

Assists Per 90. R2=0.033

Again, I removed the outliers who didn't record an assists in yr 1 or yr 2.

This is a pretty similar chart to the Goals per 90 one featured above. It's a mess, there's little repeatability in comparison to shots or shots on target.

Shooting Accuracy%. R2=0.0165

This is shooting accuracy%/SoT%. It's another scattered set of data of points with virtually zero repeatability. This is the one metric that stunned me a little for I was always under the impression that a striker had some control, some form of skill in getting a certain percentage of his total shots on target. Obviously not.

Scoring%. R2=0.0073

Finally, we get to scoring% which is goals/shots on target.

I removed the extreme scoring% outliers by controlling for a minimum number of shots. Scoring% is not to be confused with Shooting%/Conversion% which uses Total SHots and not Shots on Target.

There is virtually zero relationship between a striker managing to convert his shots on target into goals in year 1 to year 2. We have sent out warnings before about backing strikers who rode high scoring%'s to their impressive goal tally.

A quick recap: don't bet on a striker who had a high scoring% in year 1 to repeat that  percentage in year 2. This likely means a drop in goals scored, unless the players shots on target per 90 can be boosted. Scoring% is random, it's true in football and it's true in hockey.

Conclusion

There isn't one metric that we use to evaluate strikers that has a particularly high level of repeatability from one year to the next. But if we are to choose any of the metrics to try and predict future performance then shots per90 and shots on target per 90 are clearly the two we should use. The percentage metrics - shooting accuracy% and scoring% - are, to borrow a turn of phrase from MC79, a crapshoot.

We know these metrics are predominantly luck driven, we know they regress heavily and it would be folly to predict the future performance of a striker using either of those metrics. Would controlling for the location of shots, say in box shots only, strengthen the correlation between yr 1 and yr 2 scoring%?

I would have thought so, but @footballfactman ran the numbers and central in-box shooting% (goals/total shots) had an r2 of just 0.02.  One last time, if we are looking for a repeatable aspect of striker performance, then all roads point us in the direction of a players shots and shots on target, not his goals per90 or shooting accuracy% or even a players scoring%.

I am not Tor-Kristian Karlsen when it comes to talent evaluation, but I know a lil' bit. Part of my job involves objectively evaluating talent for football teams and then relating that to the betting lines we post week after week. Combine that with my research into player analytics and predictive modelling, and I’m a fairly qualified judge for figuring out overall squad strengths for the major leagues in Europe. Today, I want to move past the transfer market and early season hype for a second and objectively break down and compare each position for Arsenal and Spurs. The goal is to figure out which team actually has the better side, and where the strengths and weaknesses lie. For those of you who missed our season previews on these clubs, Arsenal can be found here (link) and Spurs can be found here (link). I'm grading the teams this way. A slight edge equals one point, a moderate edge equals three, and a large edge equals five. At the end of the article, we'll add them all up and see who wins. Center Forward: Roberto Soldado vs. Olivier Giroud I am writing this under the assumption that Gareth Bale is going to be sold, making Soldado their primary forward. He has a few gifts, but his best one is being in the right place at the right time to finish chances. I’m not particularly impressed by him, but he fills a need. I also assume that AVB is completely fed up with Adebayor, and that good Ade is not likely to come back. Giroud is a complicated guy to analyse. His finishing simply isn’t good enough, which is one reason why Arsenal have humped the legs of a number of central strikers so far this summer, but have yet to be successful at actually buying one. On the other hand, Giroud feels quite talented when you watch him. He’s powerful, has good feet, and is able to see the passes he should make, even if he doesn’t always pull them off. If Giroud displays a little bit more composure in front of goal this season, then he’s better than Soldado (and younger). I’m unconvinced that will happen. Verdict: Push Left Forward: Lucas Podolski vs. Willian One player on the outskirts of the German National Team squaring off against one on the outskirts of the Brazilian one. Both play on the left at the moment, but Willian is the only one who thrives there. Poldi prefers to play centrally, usually as a second striker. Podolski quietly did well for Arsenal last season, but he’s not terribly creative, nor is he a great runner. His best asset is the ability to hit thunderbastards with a left boot kissed by the gods, and this is reflected by his high conversion rate. Willian is extremely clever. A quick, decisive dribbler, he is also an excellent passer who creates a host of chances by himself each game. He’s not the goalscorer that Poldi is, but he can get on the board, and he makes up for it by creating great shots for others. The kicker on this one is: Dude only has one name. (Confession: I have not seen enough Willian to judge him properly so this could be wrong.) Verdict: Moderate edge to Spurs Right Forward: Theo Walcott vs. Aaron Lennon Aaron Lennon is a handy little player. On his day, he can make about half the defences in the league look silly, and he usually gives a decent contribution. I like Aaron Lennon and feel he’s pretty good, but his days don’t happen often enough to make me view him as better than that. At 26, I think we can now all admit he's never going to be world class. Theo Walcott, on the other hand, has quietly matured into one of the most feared wide forwards in the league. Always gifted with pace, but lacking a “football brain,” Walcott has finally figured some things out. Perhaps the greatest thing he has done is learn to finish. Once he gets into the clear (which happens despite the fact that he’s fairly predictable), he’s now quite adept at finishing near post or far. Given his pace, goalies are forced into all sorts of low-probability guesses for what he might do, and if Walcott ever learns to chip well, the world will tremble. The other thing Theo does well now is hammer low crosses/cutbacks for his teammates to find. These crosses have a relatively low probability of completion, but when they do, they are lethal. It took him years to do it, but Walcott figured out how to turn his gifts into a package of problems for defenders. Verdict: Moderate edge to Arsenal Midfield Battle: Santi Cazorla vs. Moussa Dembele,  Jack Wilshere vs. Paulinho, Mikel Arteta vs. Sandro This one is a struggle to analyse because the managers want their midfields to do different things. Spurs have purchased powerful, destructive players across the board in midfield, all of whom can pass, but aren’t go to names when you think of “great offensive midfielders.” That said, every single one of them is an expert at mixing it up, and they cover space extremely well. Wenger’s team, on the other hand, populate their midfield with smaller players who are universally excellent passers. Cazorla was one of the players of the season last year. Arteta was neck and neck with Michael Carrick for the best regista (deep-lying playmaker) in the Premier League, despite the fact that he spent his first decade as a professional playing as an attacker. When fully healthy, Wilshere once looked like one of the brightest two-way midfielders in the world. Sadly, he hasn’t been fully healthy for two years now, in part because opposing players hack the shit out of him when he’s on the pitch. Can he still be great? Maybe. Can he stay healthy? Data is starting to indicate otherwise. On a talent level, Arsenal edge this. On a physical level, Spurs have a clear advantage. I’m going to rate it as a push. Verdict: Push Kieran Gibbs vs. Danny Rose This battle is closer than it would have been last year, when the revolving door of Kyle Naughton and Bennie Assou-Ekotta made left back one of Spurs weaknesses. Now that Rose is there, they have a dynamic young player good on both sides of the ball. He’s young and still learning the game though, so you can expect a few painful mistakes this season. Either of the Arsenal options at LB are better than Rose. Gibbs is probably the best of the lot, with a high work rate, excellent passing ability, and sound defensive stats as well. Unfortunately, he gets injured a lot, which is why Arsenal picked up the second choice LB of the Spanish National Team during the January break, Nacho Monreal. At this point I’m not sure even Arsene knows which one he would prefer. They are never healthy at the same time, so he’s never faced with that decision. Verdict: Slight edge to Arsenal Central Defenders: Mertesacker/Koscielny/Vermalaen vs. Vertonghen/Kaboul/Dawson Interesting factoid – both of these teams were great at preventing opponent shots last season.  Spurs were first in the league, while Arsenal were a very narrow third. This was largely down to their tactical systems and not the fact that they had amazing players at center back. Arsenal’s trio are adequate.  Mertesacker is a bit slow and despite his size, can get manhandled at times by powerful forwards. He reads the game well and obviously his height is helpful in the air. Koscielny is quicker and generally considered to be quite good, but has a habit of making dumb plays and getting unfortunate red cards. He plays a blinder half a season, every season. The other half he can be a liability. Vermalaen once looked like he had all the tools to be great, but his positional awareness can be dire at times. He can be considered barely adequate backup at this point. Spurs central defense is upgraded on last season, mainly because Kaboul is back. The first-choice pairing is likely Vertonghen and Kaboul, which should make them one of the best in the league. Until Kaboul is back to full game shape, Michael Dawson is an able fill-in, though he’ll have problems when Spurs face teams with a host of fast, skillful attackers. Verdict: Moderate edge to Spurs Right Back: Bakary Sagna vs. Kyle Walker Up until two years ago, Sagna might have been the best right back in the league. Pacey, with decent crossing ability, and a great level of fitness, Sagna never stopped running for Arsenal, and his ability to be involved on offense, but still get back and cover on defense was amazing. Then the injuries started to hit, and Sagna lost something. The last two seasons he has been shockingly error-prone. In a sense, this seemed normal – it was just what Arsenal did - but it was rarely Sanga that did it. However, last year he really stood out as a painful, unreliable weak spot. The stats are still good, but Sagna’s level of play has dropped considerably over the last two years, and I don't think he'll recover. Walker, on the other hand, has turned into an excellent right back. He also has occasional problems with defensive lapses, but part of those are caused by the fact that AVB wants him to push forward into the offense so much (and his absence is supposed to be covered by one of the midfield 3 dropping in to defense). On the offensive end, Walker just keeps getting better. His release passes this past weekend against Palace were breathtaking, and his overlaps with Lennon and ability to cross give Spurs offense a dynamic they would lack with anyone else at his position. He could be better… but he’s already very good. Verdict: Slight edge to Spurs Goalkeeper: Chezzer/Flappyhandski vs. Hugo Lloris Um… let’s just say that the last convincing goalkeeper Arsenal owned was Jens Lehmann before he turned into Mad Jens. That was 2007ish. Arsenal were interested in Hugo for ages! They should have bought Lloris when they had the chance. Verdict: Large edge to Spurs Potential Variations If you put Cazorla on the left wing in place of Podolski, then Arsenal have a slight edge there, but they lose the midfield battle when you plug in Ramsey. If Spurs miraculously don’t sell him this year and Bale goes to CF in place of Soldado, then they get a moderate edge at CF (or whatever position Bale actually plays when he’s floating to and fro), on the assumption that Bale may regress a bit this season. If Spurs buy Lamela as well and start him in place of Lennon, then the RW becomes a push as the Walcott advantage goes away. As it is currently, it no longer looks like Spurs are in for Lamela. If Arsenal buy… Bahahahaha, who am I kidding? Manager: Arsene Wenger vs. Andre Villas-Boas Old school versus new. The French economist versus Andre “I don’t believe in analytics” Boas. Both of these guys have proven themselves to be excellent managers over the course of the season. Ignore Wenger in his Director of Football role at Arsenal, and you see a guy who has a proven track record of strong finishes with occasionally sketchy talent. His teams play beautiful football, and he has a record for polishing potential into world class gems. He has also done reasonably well at overcoming most opposing managers in his time, and his teams are capable of winning big matches. (Except against Jose Mourinho. Who is back in the league. Oh boy.) AVB is also impressive. The tactical system he has employed at Spurs posted the best shot dominance in the league last season. I grouse about him not believing in the value of analytics, but maybe he really doesn't need it. An upgrade in talent across the squad means they should do even better at keeping opponents from scoring while bombarding the opposing goalies with shots at the other end. I could wish for a little more cleverness in the passing, but overall Spurs style is one to be admired. Verdict: Push Final Scorecard

Spurs win by a margin of +8. They are better than Arsenal at four of the eight areas evaluated, Arsenal are better at two, and two areas are judged a push. Even as an Arsenal fan, I am impressed with what Spurs have done so far this summer. They have taken a strong system put in place by AVB, restructured their entire team based around strength in the center and quickness at the sides, and built a great team. They lose a bit of magic with Gareth Bale, but this squad is a lot deeper than last season’s and designed to grind out the touch matches week after week. Arsenal meanwhile, have stood still on a squad that barely finished fourth last year. There is a lot of talent in that squad, but it’s a bit fragile and needed bolstering, something they simply haven’t done. Time is running out in the transfer window, Wenger is loathe to pay a penny over what he thinks is fair, and they need to get better in a number of areas. It doesn’t look good right now, Arsenal fans. But, well, you already knew that. --TK

1) Arsenal

Arsenal fans, I know the anger vented on Saturday has been building for a loooooong time and I know it seems dark and depressing right now but don't panic. Yes, you guys may have had a very quiet summer; yes, it's disappointing no money has spent; everyone seems to be injured and now we have Lady Nina Bracewell-Smith expressing regret about selling her shares to Kroenke. Oh, and there is a tricky CL qualifier away at Fenerbache and everyone seems to be injured.

But don't panic, seasons are long, one bad result in the first game of the season shouldn't be the blow that brings down the Wenger empire. It'll get better, players will be brought in, injuries will heal and Arsenal will likely be in the CL groups. Learn lessons from this summers inertia and don't panic!

2) Aston Villa's Attack

It's only one game, it's only one game, it's only one game..........but, I quite liked the shape of Villa's attacking setup on Saturday. Benteke offers the muscularity through the middle, Weimann is the intelligent schemer who buzzes in the inside right channel and Agbonlahor offers blistering pace. Those three players looked plenty capable of causing opposition defenses problems with their counter attacking play.

This is a young Villa team who will suffer through some defensive issues throughout the season. It's also a Villa team who will be fun to watch if only due to that attacking trident.

3) Muscle Memory

It's only one game, but Man United looked characteristically efficient during their 1-4 away win in Swansea. Infact, it looked like Ferguson was still in charge of Man United and that should be placed into the credit column for Moyes. We should also credit the players for that performance for it seemed like the United players were acting on some kind of muscle memory in terms of calmness, discipline and patience.

This is a very experienced group of United players who also have many seasons worth of experience playing together in a tactical scheme that was created by one of the best tacticians we have known. These United players will not have forgotten Ferguson's teachings, they will not have forgotten the amazing tactical magic that he instilled in this group.

Moyes may not change a whole lot at United, and on Sunday it appeared that this United team was playing purely from memory, and those memories were created by that weird voodoo magician they called Fergie.

4) Sunderland

I love writing about Sunderland. It all stems for from focusing on Sunderland's early struggles by the underlying numbers in 2012/13. A short recap: Sunderland were terrible all season, but they were unusually, frighteninglyterrible in the first dozen games or so. Now Sunderland have Di Canio at the helm they are likely to be just as interesting a team to write about in 2013/14 as they were in 2012/13, but likely for different reasons.

Sunderland should be slightly better this year with the investments they have made, but I was still mightily intrigued to see how Sunderland started the season. They lost, going down 0-1 at home to Fulham. The result was disappointing but that wasn't what shocked me. The fact that Sunderland out-shot an opponent was shocking.Sunderland out-shot Fulham by a total of 21 to 5 and 3 to 1 in shots on target.

Were score effects an issue? Sunderland out-shot Fulham 12-4 at Tied game state. Has Paolo Di Canio turned this Sunderland team into one who is capable of out-shooting an opponent? It's only one game

5) Mourinho V2.0

A grown man. Half and half scarf.

I was as impressed as it's possible to be with Chelsea's home victory against a newly promoted side. Yes, Hull were there for the taking but Chelsea played some very nice stuff in the first 30 minutes. Quick, pressure passing and smart movement form Chelsea's attacking wizards. And Mourinho looked relaxed!

Once into the second half Chelsea sat back as is their wont. Now, I saw quite a few tweets which stated that Chelsea were outplayed in the second half by Hull. I counter that opinion by merely saying that this was Chelsea 'shelling' and this means Chelsea purposefully sat back, tightened up their defensive shape and focused less on expending any tactical currency on searching for a third goal.

This 'shelling' is a tactic that every team employ. It was a tactic that Chelsea particularly struggled with last term. Yesterday against Hull, Chelsea went into the 'shell', maybe it was a deliberate practice as Ted suggested, maybe it was default Mourinho.

Either way, when 'shelling' it appears as if the team is being outplayed, you tend to get out-shot by the opposition, but those shots will be from poorer positions on the pitch, those shots will be blocked at a higher rate and this means those shots are unlikely to result in goals against.

It's only one game, but I'd lean towards the 2nd half being a competitive practice session and the 1st half being more indicative of Mourinho v2.0 - quick passing, all movement and attacking intent.

6) New Strikers

Hey, it wasn't a bad weekend for the new striker recruits was it? Bony scored, Wolfie scored, Soldado scored. If a team spends a lot of money at the sharp end of the field it's always nice for the club to get an early return and for the player to get off the mark early. No striker wants to do a Forlan.

Anyone want to create an over/under line on when Neymar's first league goal will arrive?

7) Best PL Debuts From A Striker

Now, I haven't researched this too much but of the top of my head I remember hat-tricks from Ravanelli and Shearer(x2). Klinsmann had a pretty good debut in his first Spurs spell and that debut game is where the 'dive' celebration was born. A personal favourite was watching the debut of George Weah for Man City, it was farcical that a player of such stature and skill was debuting for a newly promoted side under the management of Joe Royle. $$$!

But one particluar debut game sticks in my head and that performance came from a complete unknown. He was leggy, highly skilled and Man United just couldn't live with him that day.

Wanchope was a bolt from the blue, a shock of lightning. Any readers have any suggestions of great PL debuts?

8) Man City v Newcastle

Whilst we are on the topic of good debuts from strikers, I wonder what price one could get for Jovetic or Negredo scoring at home to Newcastle? That's not the ony question that arises from the Monday night fixture: How will City's new signings appear at first blush? Just how dominant will a Fernandinho/Yaya pairing be? Can Pellegrini get off to a winning start and ape the satisfying opening day wins of Moyes and Mourinho?

And what of Newcastle and Pardew? Will they be better and healthier this year? Will we find out exactly who the hell they are?

9) Goal Of The Week

The lack of usable highlight video is already bothering me and we are just 2 days into the new season. Why is there not a Premier league youtube channel with highlights/goals videos from each game every week?

Robin van Persie - the 2nd goal.......wooof!

10) Don't Panic Or Get Too Excited

If your team had a good opening day result - United, Southampton & Chelsea - it may be best to not get to excited or draw any conclusions that are too concerete about the quality of your team. If you are an Arsenal fan, or a fan of one of the promoted clubs, then don't be too downhearted. You know, shit happens in a one off game, shit happens at the start of the season.

We are many, many weeks and games away from being able to make any serious predictions about how the season may shape up.