Month: September 2019

When Schalke edged Mainz on matchday five, thanks to Amine Harit’s excellent outside of the boot winner, they had made it three wins in a row and people in German football began to take notice. That sort of streak is not exactly what Schalke fans are used to. They won six in a row in the spring of Domenico Tedesco’s miraculous second place season. The Royal Blues also had just two two game winning “streaks” in a dismal last season that saw them gain 33 points from 34 matches. Even more impressively, they followed up that Mainz result with a 2-1 victory over then league leaders RB Leipzig. It was Schalke’s first win against a team in the top spot in 14 tries and now they are the talk of Germany. You see, Ruhrpott giants and one of the Bundesliga’s best-supported clubs, Schalke are a team of extremes, with little room for anything in-between.

Addition by squad subtraction

Schalke are now on their fourth permanent head coach in five seasons, David Wagner, the German-born American/Klopp best man of Huddersfield Town fame. Schalke have exhausted a range of coaching philosophies - going from Andre Breitenreiter to Markus Weinzierl to Domenico Tedesco and then, on an interim basis, Huub Stevens. RB Leipzig’s Jochen Schneider was appointed to the front office right around the time the team was bus getting thrashed 7-0 by Manchester City in the group stages of last season’s Champions League. He helped lead a squad overhaul along with long-time Bundesliga squad planner (with stints at both Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich) and now technical director, Michael Reschke. Reschke joined Schalke from Stuttgart over the summer, cleverly exercising a 15 million Euro buyout clause to bring with him 19-year-old Turkish center back phenom Ozan Kabak, who he originally signed for Stuttgart in January, then for Stuttgart. With just four minutes played so far in the league due to a preseason injury, it’s hard to call Kabak the catalyst to Schalke’s success and the same can be said of the speedy winger addition of Benito Raman (6.5m from Düsseldorf) who is scoreless in 192 minutes. The real addition, aside from the useful young English fullback Jonjoe Kenny, who has quickly nailed down the right back spot, has been via subtraction. First, there came the departures of the perennially disappointing/injured Breel Embolo (last seen missing chances at Gladbach)  and failed young guys like Hamza Mendyl - the speedy left back’s lasting memory will be Tedesco desperately throwing him on as a striker against Borussia Dortmund in the Revierderby in a move that makes FIFA novices shudder. Then, Schneider and Reschke tried to erased the overpaid reaches of former sporting director Christian Heidel. All in all Heidel spent 82.5 million on five players, whom Schalke was able to sell for 11.5 million (Embolo and Yevhen Konoplyanka) with Sebastian Rudy and Hamza Mendyl needing to go out on loan, and former Spurs player Nabil Bentaleb - rehabbing a knee injury - finding no takers in the summer. Of course, the balance sheet of Heidel isn’t all bad, as several of the current key Schalke players were brought in under his tenure. There is the versatile Benjamin Stambouli, who settled in at center back, and the rejuvenated Omar Mascarell who, thanks to David Wagner’s transition into a pressing oriented system,is slowly recapturing his form in the number six role that caught the eye of many in Niko Kovac’s Frankfurt. Also, in six games so far, Suat Serdar's production has simply exploded with almost every single aspect of the 22 year-old's game exploding. He also looked like the best player on the pitch against Leipzig. The star of the bunch is of course Amine Harit, whom our Sam Planting identified as recapturing his 2017\18 early season magic. Far be it for me to rub salt into those very open Dortmund wounds (yes, we SHOULD be worried about BVB), but many in Gelsenkirchen still fondly recall the time when Harit came on in the 32nd minute down 4-0 to BVB and turned the game around with his dribbling and ability to draw fouls, leading to one of the most remarkable 4-4 draws in recent memory. Even if his goalscoring cools down and he stops scoring all his shots inside the box, Schalke’s transition-heavy attack can rely on his individual ability to draw fouls (the penalty against Leipzig) and Serdar’s improved ball progression to at least generate something.

Wagner focuses on playing without the ball

Wagner’s Schalke still defines itself primarily against the ball. Having abandoned the 5-3-2, they now play a flexible 4-2-3-1 with some high and intense counterpressing, often with 7-8 players on the ball side. The more aggressive defensive approach has, so far, improved the sides overall performance. It remains relatively early days, so things can change rapidly, but the defensive heatmap from Schalke this season shows a lot of action all over the pitch. Last season Schalke's defensive approach was considerably less high action. The front of the 4-2-3-1 features Guido Burgstaller, yet another player who has benefited tremendously from Wagner's arrival. That said, goal scorer remains a problematic position. Nobody on this team is close to Burgstaller's xG total. And this comes after last season where there was very little in the way of goal scoring threat anywhere on the squad. Wagner has shown some excellent tactical creativity by dusting off and playing little-used Rabbi Matondo at second striker. In what looked like a narrow 4-4-2, (perhaps a 4-3-1-2 with Harit behind the strikers), the Welshman’s pace gave their counters another dimension against Leipzig, and left Nagelsmann befuddled. Matondo walked away with five shots, a goal and 0.88 xG. Still, given the attacking struggles though, it's no wonder the excellent fellas over at Schalkemerica have started the #freeKutucu movement, in an effort to play the 19-year-old Turkish striker, about whom Manchester City inquired in the summer. Behind the striker, Wagner has played former right back Daniel Caligiuri as a traditionally dribbling and pressing winger on the right, though his performances have not been great. On the left, there is Amine Harit, who can move into the ten spot, but also take Benito Raman’s spot as a creative inverted winger on the left. Aside from the aforementioned goals, creativity and dribbling, Harit is also a functional defensive contributor. Raise your hand, if you had Harit - the same player who was banned from a Duisburg casino in January for “his own good” - as a natural fit at winger for a team implementing an intense counterpressing system. At the ten/eight spots they alternate two incredibly dynamic and versatile players in Serdar and Weston McKennie, who is equally capable of pressing as a second striker, as he is at joining Mascarell in the double pivot. With that kind of organization, positional flexibility, intensity and athleticism, Schalke can hold a lot of teams for big spurts. That includes Bayern, who even tried a funky use of  David Alaba as a false full back alongside the now regular number six Joshua Kimmich, but were for large portions of the game, unable to break through the Royal Blues pressing. https://twitter.com/BundesPL/status/1165929569460924416?s=20 And of course, Leipzig, whose XG flatlined after Nübel’s double save on Forsberg and Sabitzer in the 16th, with the Austrian shattering the crossbar a minute earlier. In terms of their attacking structure, Wagner plays with 2 center backs and when pressed by two strikers like against Paderborn, Omar Mascarell drops in between them. Yet, due to some structural issues (Serdar\McKennie don’t always get into proper receiving position) and particularly Salif Sané’s risk averse passing, their ball progression from the back, is still a work in progress. It consists mostly of Stambouli’s usually excellent long passes, or a hoofed ball under pressure by the goalkeeper, Alexander Nübel, which if Burgstaller is able to control or lay off can work, considering the athleticism of Harit/Raman/McKennie/Caligiuri/Serdar. Otherwise, Schalke aim to progress the ball through switches to free up one of the fullbacks who then plays a one two with the 8s\ and either bombs down the flank or finds Amine Harit to create something. Under Wagner, set pieces have reappeared as an integral part of the game plan, with three goals on 18 shots. That’s almost half of the  6 goals on 122 shots last season and one direct free kick goal on 18 tries. It’s not quite at the otherworldly 14 (!!) goals on 100 shots plus 2 direct free kicks in the silver medal season under Tedesco, but they're clearly getting results. The dynamic is somewhat complicated. Their set piece xG is not all that impressive, in fact at 0.25 per match it's the seventh lowest in the league. But that's mostly down to a lack of opportunities. The three shots per match they're averaging from set pieces is one of the lowest totals in the league. They team seems to do good set piece work when they have the chance to, they could just benefit from more chances.

Cooling the hype train with numbers

Amidst all the positivity, there is some cause to be cautious, though that word is not exactly a household item in the Gelsenkirchen area.  There is the fact that before the Leipzig triumph, 3 victories came against Hertha Paderborn and Mainz, three of the four lowest ranked Bundesliga teams. The 3-0 over Hertha was with the help of two own goals and it took nearly 270 minutes for Jonjoe Kenny to finally score the first goal by an actual Schalke player.  The numbers, albeit improved from a dismal last season that saw them way underperform, also should cool some of the Schalke hype: shots against is down from 13.26 to 12.5, a respectable seventh in the league and non-penalty xG against is down from 1.25 to 1.08. the fourth best Bundesliga mark. Pair that with a 1.31 xG per match tally on the attacking side of the ball and you get a 0.23 xG difference. That's good, but it's not third place good. Still, thirteen points from six games is an amazing and unexpected haul considering they were without a point in their first five matches last year. The reality of this team falls somewhere between the two extremes of 14th and second place in the previous two campaigns. The good news from a Schalke perspective is that neither last year’s signing Mark Uth, nor the new ones in Raman and Kabak have added much. Before matchday six, the top three looked like Bayern, Leipzig and BVB in some order, but as Dortmund continue to be extremely worrying there are some other candidates: Leverkusen and Gladbach appear to be righting the ship after getting spanked by BVB and Leipzig and failing in Europe, while Wolfsburg shipped the fewest xG against (non-Bayern Munich division) Then, there is Schalke who could sneak in the back door despite having, in late August, a higher chance of being relegated than making the Champions Leagie, according to fivethirtyeight.com.  With four of the next five against struggling Cologne, Hoffenheim, Augsburg and Düsseldorf their slow climb up the table just might become an all out sprint.   Header image courtesy of the Press Association 

Will this be Forest’s season? Since 2011, not a season has gone by at Nottingham Forest in which the manager in charge at the start of the season has been the same manager who has finished it. The routine consequences of employing 13 permanent managers in an eight-year period could be predicted by most: a muddled squad acquired for multiple different blueprints, and little sense of a tactical identity. Even the summer sacking of Martin O’Neill and same-day appointment of his successor came with a side dish of chaos given that the decision was made as late as June 28^th, precisely one day before Forest’s first pre-season friendly. The current incumbent of one of the hottest seats in football management, Sabri Lamouchi, has been handed a one-year contract and the same remit as his predecessors: finish in the top six or else. Not only did Lamouchi have less than 24 hours before selecting his first XI as the new head coach, he also had to contend with choosing from a squad that had become severely bloated and contained as many as 39 professionals. Probably with the length of contract in mind and with the blessing of those above him, he swiftly chose a group of players to work with and cast aside the remainder, instructing the players not in his plans to train at a separate time from his desired group and to seek transfers away from the club. All of this is relevant because it’s under those circumstances that Forest have returned a W4-D3-L1 record from their opening eight league games to leave them sitting in 6^th; their sole defeat coming on the opening day against West Brom, while trips to Leeds, Swansea and Fulham, as difficult as they come in the Championship, returning seven points. What is a tricky start to the season by any measure has led to a platform for the East Midlands club to build upon and a sense of optimism is now quietly brewing in those parts.

A Clear Impact

Lamouchi must be as clear-cut and concise in his coaching as he has been in making those off-pitch decisions. There are already transparent patterns in Forest’s play both on and off the ball. They’ve settled into a 4-1-4-1 or 4-4-1-1 with the playing principles remaining largely identical in either shape, the only real difference being the use of a single or double pivot to anchor the midfield. It’s their work out of possession where Forest have really caught the eye so far. There’s already a clear impression of Forest’s organisation in their press, often sitting in and allowing the opposition to come onto them up to the halfway line but, almost like a switch gets flicked, launch into a much more aggressive and intense effort to win the ball back once the opposition build into Forest territory. The formation naturally lends itself to this approach given the lack of forwards available to press the centre backs but also the coverage it has in both central and wide areas. The three central midfielders work with cohesion to execute the press when the ball gets moved through the central channels, whilst the wide men are equally important in their contribution to locking down the flanks. Forest’s wingers are regularly seen doubling up with their full back in an effort to successfully turn possession over or at least force the opponent to play the ball backwards. Their defensive organisation is not only compelling to watch though, it also turns up some intriguing trends in the data. First of all, Forest are rock bottom in the Championship for Defensive Distance – the average distance from a team’s own goal that it performs defensive actions – with the scarcity with which they’ll defend from the front showing clearly in this metric. They perform defensive actions closer to their own goal than any other team in the league. As you might expect of a side so keen to engage and disrupt the opposition when in their defensive third, Forest are also successfully limiting the quality of chances their opponents are able to create. They’re actually around mid-table for the amount of shots they’ve conceded so far – a shade over 12 per game – but the quality of those has been quelled and the average expected conversion rate of the chances they’re allowing is just seven percent, which is third best in their league. If we look at the distribution of those shots, we can see more clearly how they’ve kept this figure down. The Reds simply don’t concede clear cut chances. In eight games they’ve conceded a mere six opportunities that have an expected conversion rate of 20% or higher. If I remind you again that they’ve already played away at Leeds, whose dominance has already been covered on this site, and recently relegated Fulham, who boast a front three that are arguably the cream of the division in Ivan Cavaleiro, Aleksandar Mitrović and Anthony Knockaert, then it becomes even more impressive. It sounds like management-speak to say that the star performer of Forest’s season so far has been the team, but it is largely true. Two of the more impressive individuals though have been in central midfield with Ben Watson, enjoying a late-career resurgence, receiving plaudits for his all-round game and intelligence in locking down the central area in front of his defence, and summer signing Samba Sow who’s really embodied what Lamouchi’s Reds are about. Sow, once he’s identified his target, has the defensive approach akin to that of a homing missile. It’s clear that Forest’s best work comes when not in possession of the ball and their work in this area offers them a strong base to build from. What will be interesting is how well they can maintain their success if they continue to do well and start coming up against teams that are as happy to sit in as they are. They should be reassured that Lamouchi’s work on the training ground isn’t just limited to making them a cohesive unit without the ball as they’ve seemingly been putting the hours in to make them proficient at set plays too, a factor that could prove decisive in matches that are closely fought. Currently the Reds have created 0.36 xG per game from set play situations whilst conceding just 0.11 xG per game at the other end, figures that are both top four compared against their league rivals. Slightly less impressive is their output at the attacking end of the pitch, but it’s fair to argue that matters less when a) they’re keeping it locked down on the defensive end and b) they’ve had a tough schedule and Lamouchi isn’t a miracle worker.  The amount of shots Forest take per game (a shade under 12) is much closer to league average and it’s a similar story with the amount of Expected Goals they’ve created, which is currently ninth highest in the league. They’re quite happy getting forward by playing through the thirds or by transitioning quickly on the counter attack but one clear trend to their attacking play is their proclivity to move the ball out wide as their primary means of creating chances: their Box Cross % - the percentage of penalty box entries that originate from a cross - is 34%, a figure that is joint sixth highest in England’s second tier. Not only tenacious in his protection of the backline, Watson’s importance again comes to the fore when watching how Forest build their attacks. He often drops in to receive the ball from centre halves Michael Dawson or Joe Worrall, both products of the Reds’ youth academy albeit in different eras. The experienced midfielder then looks to circulate the play and waits for the right time to progress the ball to a more creative outlet within the Forest side, something clearly visible when looking at Watson’s passes that originate from his own half, often moving the ball out wide or into one of his midfield partners who’ve moved beyond the opposition’s midfield line. Watson works mostly in deeper areas but further forward it’s Joe Lolley, responsible for 22 combined goals and assists last season, who’s probably most important to Forest’s ability to get into the final third and in creating chances once they’re there, though the burden on him to produce decisive moments in the final third appears to have lessened this season. A member of England’s university and semi-professional teams before he made his breakthrough into the professional game, Lolley is constant in his desire to pick up the ball and drive up the right flank and has so far completed 87% of his dribbles and carries that end in the opposition half in his eight league appearances. Experienced Championship campaigner Lewis Grabban has played every minute up front in the league and will be relied upon to provide clinical finishing to the end of Forest’s attacking moves if they’re to succeed this season, with their defensive base providing what should be a solid platform to pick results up from, if they maintain this level of performance. All in, it’s a promising start for the Tricky Trees with Sabri Lamouchi making a compelling early case to be the first manager for eight seasons to stay in the Forest managerial hotseat from season’s start to season’s end. But it’s top six or else.

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Elk nadeel heeft zijn voordeel. Translation: every disadvantage has an advantage. It was one of the many, many Dutch sayings coined by the greatest footballer and football-mind the country has ever known, Johan Cruijff. A saying that currently is applicable to the situation wherein the Bundesliga finds itself. The glory days of 2013, when Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund faced off in the Champions League, and 2014, the year in which the German national team became Weltmeister in convincing fashion, seem like the distant past. The Bundesliga clubs, excluding Bayern - although, even they have not been great these past few editions - have struggled to make their mark in the final stages of the Champions League recently. The financial gap with the Premier League clubs and the mainstays from Spanish La Liga is not being bridged either. So, it’s not outside the realm of possibilities that a scenario like last year’s Champions League (no German club in the quarter finals) or like the edition of 2017-18 (not a single non-Bayern team from the Bundesliga present in the knockout stages) will occur once more. A scenario that would be deemed impossible, just a few years ago. But, there’s a reason I started this article with a quote the great JC. Because with adversity comes opportunity. While the Bundesliga might not be the best league in terms of general level of play right now, it has a good claim on the title of ‘most trustworthy talent-factory of European top football’. Just take a look at the rosters at the very top: almost every elite team has a few Bundesliga alumni amongst their most important players. So, with that said, it seems like a sensible idea to take a quick look at the newest crop of breakout players in this year’s Bundesliga. International stars like Heung-Min Son, Marc-André Ter Stegen and Leroy Sané took their first steps to full-blown stardom in the German league - a scenario that the players below also hope for.

Zack Steffen (24), Fortuna Düsseldorf

For those among you who follow Major League Soccer closely, Steffen’s very rapid emergence in the Bundesliga will come as less of a surprise. The USMNT goalie - one of the handful of U.S. national players who is up to par for an internationally adequate level - was rather impressive at Columbus Crew the past few seasons. That's why Manchester City paid a pretty lofty sum (8 million euros) for a buy-and-stash goalkeeper. The fans of Fortuna Düsseldorf are most likely thrilled with the one-year loan of Steffen. He posted a whopping total of ten saves on his debut, a game in which Fortuna rode Steffen’s cat-like reflexes to a surprising 1-3 away win. After five match-weeks, Steffen already seems to have an insurmountable lead in save totals amongst Bundesliga keepers: he has already tallied 33 saves, which gives him a 14 save lead to the second most-active shot topper in Germany’s top league. Looking at the more advanced stats, Steffen comes off looking, if possible, even better. He's saved almost five goals more than an average keeper might be expected to. That's the best mark in the league. If instead of raw numbers, we look at percentages, Steffen's 79.5% save percentage is 12.2% higher than expected given the profile of the shots on goal he's faced. That's the third highest gap in the league. Anyway you look at it, Steffen is playing his face off. It is at least worth noting, in the face of this amazing form, that during Steffen's last season at MLS his save % was actually lower by 5.1% than expectations. Düsseldorf, who deploy a fairly direct, counter-attacking playing style, are currently giving up a whopping total of 17,6 shots against per game, so Steffen will have a lot of opportunities to showcase his array of skills. The American shot-stopper’s main calling-card are his reflexes - Steffen could develop into one of Europe’s premier ‘line keepers’ - but he also impresses when the ball is at his feet, displaying pretty nifty ball-control and a really nice long ball. Steffen’s ‘floor’ seems to be a future wherein he is a very solid back-up for Ederson Moraes at Manchester City. But, if this form continues, he already seems to be a little too good to stand in someone else’s shadow, and only play in ten to 15 cup games a year.

Amine Harit (22), Schalke 04

This breakout is one that is near and dear to my heart. In 2017/18, when Schalke somehow clawed itself to a shocking league finish in second place under the guidance of Domenico Tedesco, the Moroccan dribbling machine regularly showed glimpses of future superstardom. But then, Schalke went full Schalke last season. The Königsblauen, the Royal Blues of Gelsenkirchen, filled their 2018/19 campaign with more personal drama than any given high-school drama currently filling up Netflix. With results falling flat early, Tedesco tightened up his already opponent-focused playing style, before his tenure ended amidst some very Schalke-esque muddiness. Harit was already slumping, but when Schalke turned to Huub Stevens, the most old school of football oldheads, in times of crisis, the Moroccan’s season crashed. Harit played in a grand total of nine minutes in Schalke’s last five league games of the 2018/19 season. The arrival of former Huddersfield Town manager David Wagner in Gelsenkirchen has revived Harit’s play. Wagner’s switch in playing system - the 5-3-2 formation of the past two seasons has been replaced by a more traditional 4-2-3-1 - and bigger roles in midfield for the talented Suat Serdar and the ever-energetic Omar Mascarell, have had a really positive effect on Harit, who plays as an inverted winger on the left side. In six competitive games for Schalke this year, Harit has already scored three goals - including a very juicy side-footed game-winner from distance last weekend (2-1 against Mainz) - tallied two assists, and won a penalty. Clearly Harit is benefiting from a finishing hot streak, but if we take one step back and look at his dribbling we see where he really shines. Only Jadon Sancho and Leon Bailey are averaging more completed dribbles per 90 minutes (out of players who have played more than 200 minutes) after five Bundesliga games than Harit's 3.90. And, as we can see from this map of all his carries, he's a frequent and secure mover with the ball at his feet.  

Gonçalo Paciência (25), Eintracht Frankfurt

Last year, Eintracht Frankfurt - a club with a huge amount of fans, but a perennial mid-tier inhabitant (at best) in the standings - almost finished in a Champions League spot, thanks in large part to their super threesome of attackers: Sébastien Haller, Luka Jovic and Ante Rebic. Selling Haller (West Ham) and Jovic (Real Madrid) this summer already made Frankfurt about 100 millions euros, with Rebic currently loaned out at AC Milan. There’s no way that Frankfurt had another hugely undervalued, complete striker on their roster, last season, right? Right? RIGHT? Errhmm. Yeah, Gonçalo Paciência is good, y’all. Really good. The Portuguese striker is a clinical finisher, a strong aerial presence, and surprisingly calm and smart as a passer. While his goal scoring is a little ahead of his xG, of 0.43 per 90 minutes is perfectly respectable. And, also pretty important when playing for a Bundesliga club, he works his ass off in pressing the opposing build-up all over the pitch. Frankfurt bought Paciência last summer at a bargain price, as well. FC Porto agreed to a transfer fee of 3 million euros. Paciência, who has scored three and assisted one in both the Bundesliga and Europa League this season, will make Frankfurt another fortune in the near future. The recent recruitment successes of Die Adler with sporting director Fredi Bobic at the helm will have a strengthening effect on the club in the long term. In the short term, they are mostly felt in the form of loads of goals by strikers bought on the cheap.

Eleven of the last 15 teams promoted to La Liga have managed to secure a second season in the top flight, and Granada, Mallorca and Osasuna have all started the new campaign in a manner that suggests that they, too, are going to make a decent fist of doing so.

Their current league positions and goal differences vary considerably, but ahead of the midweek round of fixtures, all three of them had carried positive expected goal (xG) differences through their opening five matches of the campaign.

Granada

Granada were up in third at end of the weekend on the back of three wins, one draw and one defeat, and the fifth-best xG difference in the division. They’d already been quietly impressive before Saturday’s 2-0 win at home to Barcelona thrust them into the limelight. Deservedly so. After taking an early lead, they limited their opponents to eight shots that only added up to 0.51 xG. Barcelona didn’t even get an effort on target in open play until the 82nd minute.

The club’s promotion campaign was built upon a sturdy defensive unit that conceded just 28 times, and they are yet to lose by more than a single goal across Diego Martínez’s 47 matches at the helm. That will again be the foundation of any success they enjoy in the top flight; all three of their victories to date have been to nil. But their performances have also made it clear that they are a team capable of varying their approach according to the circumstances of each match.

Martínez has said that he wants his team to be chameleonic. That was one of a number of words he scrawled on the dressing room whiteboard prior to the match against Barcelona. Others, equally apt, included: cohesive, competitive, intelligent, dynamic, compact, brave. “Playing well means being flexible and having the necessary organisation to respond appropriately to whatever a match demands of you,” he explained.

That was certainly evident against Barcelona. Granada were equally comfortable pressing further up the pitch in the first half:

 

 

As they were in a largely deeper block after the break:

 

 

Going forward, Granada have a pair of able shot creators in Antonio Puertas and Darwin Machís and are getting off a solid 12.2 shots per match (seventh-highest in the league), even if a fair number of them (a league second-high 4.60 per match) come from outside the area. In Ángel Montoro, they possess a pretty slick ball progressor, especially in transition.

 

 

Granada have also taken full advantage of set-piece situations. In an admittedly small sample size, they lead the league in terms of both goals and xG from set-pieces (with Montoro their regular taker). Being good at attacking set-pieces doesn’t always transfer to defending them. They require different skillsets, and it isn’t as easy to hide players with concentration issues on defence. But Granada have been equally impressive there. Again in a low sample size, they have the third-best record in the division in terms of xG conceded from set pieces.

 

 

It is early days yet, and no one at Granada will be getting carried away. But they’ve shown themselves to have a varied enough toolbox to suggest they can make a good fight of remaining in the top flight.

Osasuna

In his blue jeans and navy blue t-shirt with red, four-point star emblem, Osasuna coach Jagoba Arrasate dresses as if on his way to a heavy metal rock concert. His team play at a similar amplitude. Theirs is high-octane, physical football, based around a 4-4-2 formation, a cross-heavy attack and a determined mid-block press, especially on home soil.

Osasuna dropped just four points at their atmospheric El Sadar stadium during their promotion campaign and are unbeaten there to date in the top flight following draws with Eibar, Barcelona (who, like Granada, they limited to just eight shots and under half a goal of xG) and Real Betis.

Overall, their underlying numbers are similar to those of Granada, just slightly worse in attack and slightly better in defence. Amongst the league, they carried the sixth-best xG difference through the first five fixtures. By taking better shots than those they’ve conceded, they’ve been able to convert an equal shot difference into a 0.40 xG difference.

If they can sustain solid defensive numbers -- you’d expect them to drift upwards from their current mark of 0.59 xG conceded per match, but as I’ve said before, this might just prove to be an abnormally cautious season -- Arrasate’s side should have enough going forward to maintain a positive balance.

Osasuna’s attacks are almost exclusively rapid ones down the flanks and into the channels. Notice the almost complete lack of central interplay in this pass map from their 0-0 home draw against Betis on Friday. (Red = completed pass; Yellow = incomplete pass)

 

 

A league third-high 39% of their penalty box entries to date have come from crosses. Those are usually considered a pretty inefficient way of creating good-quality chances, but they do also have some players capable of varying things, including Chimy Ávila, one of the fastest players in La Liga and a constant menace both in and out of possession. The shots he gets you aren’t always of the best quality, but he generates, often off his own back, a good number of them: 3.69 per 90 at Huesca last season; 3.16 per 90 at Osasuna. He’s also capable of moments of creativity that add imagination to an otherwise functional attack.

 

Mallorca

Mallorca are back in the top flight following two consecutive promotions, the second achieved with a rousing comeback to overturn a two-goal first-leg deficit and defeat Deportivo La Coruña in the playoff final towards the end of June. They only finished fifth in the Segunda last season, so had more ground to make up than Osasuna and Granada.

They’ve also made a less impressive start to the season, particularly in terms of results. They were just outside the bottom three ahead of the midweek fixtures following one win, one draw and three defeats, although their underlying numbers do paint a more promising picture. While not quite as good as those of the other promoted teams, a 0.23 xG difference through their opening five matches was the eighth-best mark in the league. Conceding four penalties, three of which were converted, certainly conditioned their top-line results.

Mallorca’s summer transfer work was focused on adding shots to their attack and quality to their midfield. In attack, Yannis Salibur averaged over three shots per 90 at both Guingamp and Saint-Étienne in Ligue 1, while Cucho Hernández, signed on loan from Watford, managed 3.12 per 90 for a relegated Huesca side last season; in midfield, Aleix Febas was a good free pickup, while Real Madrid loanee Takefusa Kubo brings talent as well as clear commercial opportunities -- he has already made Mallorca the most watched Spanish team in his native Japan.

Hernández is a particularly interesting signing. He got into positions to score far more than the two non-penalty goals (plus a further two from the spot) he grabbed at Huesca last season. Unless he turns out to be a historically bad finisher, he has the potential to be a very useful addition once he returns from injury.

 

 

To date, with Ante Budimir, another summer purchase, leading the attack, Mallorca have created better opportunities than their tally of four goals would perhaps suggest. While they have occasionally had problems moving the ball cleanly out of defence and through midfield into attack -- Iddrissu Baba had a particularly poor match in that regard in their weekend defeat to Getafe -- they have enough firepower up there if that can be rectified.

 

 

The interesting thing to keep an eye on with Mallorca will be the degree to which coach Vicente Moreno rigidly sticks to the formula that led them to consecutive promotions. While both Granada and Osasuna appear to be teams who are comfortable defending at various distances from their goal, Mallorca have a more set and passive defensive scheme. They defend deeper than the league average, while only three teams have allowed more passes per defensive action (a solid measure of aggressiveness out of possession). That has so far proved less effective in containing opponents and also means they create fewer turnovers in good areas from which to launch counters. They are bottom of the league in counter-attacking shots and rank third-bottom on shots emerging from a high press.

That won’t necessarily be a problem if they can find ways of getting their creative midfielders and shot-generating forwards on the ball in good positions from more extended possessions, but they do have the personnel to adopt a slightly more proactive off-ball style if their current approach doesn’t yield results.

Stats of Interest

How bad have Barcelona been away from home this season? Pretty bad (and it would look even worse had Athletic not gifted Luis Suárez a 0.59 xG chance with an errant back pass):

 

 

Next up this weekend, a Getafe side who conceded just 4.8 shots per match through the first five rounds -- comfortably the lowest mark across the major European leagues. “We’ve had six goals scored against us this season despite barely allowing shots on target,” coach Pepe Bordalás said after their 4-2 win over Mallorca. That much is true. They’ve only given up 11 shots on target. But the shots they have conceded have had the best average quality in the league.

 

 

Most shots without a goal to show for it so far this season. Step forward Rubén Rochina (who should perhaps take a few more steps forward before shooting):

 

Header image courtesy of the Press Association