Month: February 2020

Juventus - Inter is almost always the most anticipated match of the year in Serie A, but this season it’s an even greater attraction as it could be decisive for the title fight. The Bianconeri, who have lost only once in their last 14 matches against Inter, lead by 6 points. A win would pretty much destroy the Nerazzurri’s title hopes, even though Inter’s last match against Sampdoria was postponed and so they have a game in hand. However, if Conte’s men manage a win at Juventus, it would balance the defeat of the first leg, seriously threatening the Old Lady’s quest for a 9th consecutive league title. This season Inter have done their utmost to close the gap with Juventus, and their expected goal difference makes it appear they’ve managed to do so. Their xG of 0.73 is only slightly worse than Juve’s 0.77. With penalties excluded, however, Juventus remain far superior, with a 0.77 non-penalty xG difference versus Inter’s 0.60. In the first leg, Juventus showed that superiority, beating Inter 2–1, with double the number of Inter’s chances (18 shots to 9); the only goal they conceded was a penalty. However, Antonio Conte's team, despite the win against Ludogorets in the Europa League, has been declining recently, no longer able to maintain the same level of performance as in the first half of the season. But the same can be said for Maurizio Sarri's squad, which suffered two defeats in their last five Serie A games and unexpectedly lost the first leg of their Champions League Round of 16 match against Lyon (somehow). Those who expected an improvement in Juventus' performance as the decisive moment of the season approached are disappointed. The team did not make the anticipated leap in the quality of their play;  on the contrary, they dropped in performance, though they still do benefit from Cristiano Ronaldo's fantastic finishing form. Ronaldo has scored in 11 consecutive Serie A games, a record on a par with Fabio Quagliarella and Gabriel Batistuta adding a total of 16 goals (including 5 penalties), though he had scored just 5 times before the start of December. If Inter manage to limit Ronaldo Juventus will seriously struggle, as other Bianconeri have often failed to convert their chances during their top scorer's streak. As Mike Goodman pointed out, Juventus have a high percentage of ball possession, but have a hard time getting into the penalty box and are sometimes forced to take relatively low-quality attempts (their average xG per shot is 0.09). Inter's defense, which concedes shots with an average xG of 0.08 and just 1.92 passes inside the box, will be far from easy to crack. But things will change if Conte is forced to do without his starting goalkeeper; Samir Handanović has already missed six games and his month-long finger injury could keep him out of the Derby d’Italia as well. Not that he has been stellar this season (he's 13th in the league per goals saved compared to the average goalkeeper) but in the few games he’s played, it’s been obvious the Inter players don’t have as much confidence in his replacement, Daniele Padelli, as they do in their trusted veteran Handanović. Back in October, Juventus' pressing strategy worked well. Against Inter’s 3-5-2, Sarri had lined up his team in 4-3-1-2. Ronaldo, on the left, pressed Diego Godín, while Paulo Dybala, selected over Gonzalo Higuaín, limited Stefan De Vrij and Sami Khedira while also pushing higher up to press Milan Škriniar. Federico Bernardeschi, as the offensive midfielder, marked deep-lying playmaker Marcelo Brozović. If Inter managed to gain space, then Juventus would regroup, leaving De Vrij, the central defender in the opposing three-man defense, free. Juan Cuadrado and Blaise Matuidi, on the other hand, were effective in shutting down Inter attacks on the flanks, a key area for a team lined up with a midfield diamond. In the reverse fixture, Juventus will probably line up with a different midfield and could even change their system of play, but if they manage an equally effective pressing strategy they will control the momentum of the match. As happens often this season, last time around  Inter leaned heavily on their two strikers in an attempt to overcome Juventus' effective pressing but failed to create high-quality chances. They couldn’t penetrate Juventus' defensive block, and more than half their chances came from the feet of Lautaro Martínez, who finished the game with 4 shots, 4 dribbles, and a key pass. At the San Siro, Stefano Sensi’s injury was a real blow for Inter; when the midfielder was forced to leave the pitch before the end of the first half, they became much more vulnerable to pressing and less dangerous on the attack. It’s not clear if he will start in Turin, but the presence of Christian Eriksen could certainly help his teammates consolidate possession and achieve greater penetration. In defense, Inter pressed Juventus's build-up by man-marking their players, but if their opponents overcame the first pressure they dropped deep, maintaining a 5-3-2 defensive shape, which gave too much freedom to the opposing midfielders.  Nevertheless, Verona has shown that even a team of Juventus' quality can get into trouble against intense, well-organized pressing. Inter cannot afford to be pushed into their own half for 90 minutes. Even the penalty in Inter–Juventus had come from a ball recovered from a successful pressing action. If the San Siro game is any indication, the pressing battle will be decisive for the outcome of the match. If the drop in Inter's intensity in recent games is a result of Conte's load-management, then this is the match where no one will limit their effort. This huge match will be played in an unreal atmosphere, as due to the coronavirus outbreak it will take place behind closed doors. However, even without a crowd in the stands, and with only a few games before the end of the season, both teams will do everything they can to win. If one doesn’t emerge victorious, Lazio could benefit from the draw by leaping to the top of the standings. The 237th Derby d’Italia will be a thriller; it’s too bad no one with be there to watch in person.  

For a league that boasts one of the most successful women’s teams of all time, predictably, there’s no shortage of things said about D1 Arkema (the technically official name for Division 1 Féminine, France’s women’s first division), but such an unbalanced league usually leads to unbalanced coverage. Olympique Lyonnais’ can skew league news while the majority of teams that play in France’s top tier fall from the radar, lost in the shadows cast by the giants of the women’s game. But the league has lots to offer beyond the star power at the top. In D1F, it’s easy to subdivide the table into groups: first come the heavy-hitters of Lyon and Paris Saint-Germain, then we drop to the consistent no more, no less of the third-place finishers. Moving to the nuts and bolts, the background characters who make up the bulk of the league – they’re not going to trouble the top but they’ll also be safe, locked in an existence of perpetual obscurity. Finally, at the bottom are the teams I simply like to call au revoir, as they’re going down; you know it and they know it and little can be done to change it.

Heavy-hitters

In France, the two heavy-hitters are Lyon and PSG. These two are the crème at the top of the league and boast star-studded squads that marry homegrown French talent with the financial means to buy the best players from around the world. Lyon remain the heaviest hitters of all; for 13 straight seasons, they have romped to the title, casting all others aside like me en route to the buffet.This year is no different, the side leads the league in non-penalty expected goals difference. Dominant both domestically and in Europe, Lyon are the current UEFA Women’s Champions League holders and hand out drubbings all over Europe as often as in France. Consistently boasting the best attack in France – if not Europe – Lyon’s current strength comes from their midfield with playmaker Dzsenifer Marozsán pulling the strings, ably assisted by fellow midfield maestros, Amandine Henry and Saki Kumagai. As the side’s defensive heatmap shows, they’re a team that rips the ball away high up the pitch, and suffocates its opposition with wave after wave of attack. Lyon have a set piece prowess as well and usually use dead balls to unlock opposing defences – and they’re not bad with their heads either. The side has created 15 goals from just over 11 xG from dead ball situations.   The perpetual bridesmaids to Lyon’s blushing brides, PSG are the only team that could come close to rivalling the champions. Yet they repeatedly fall at the last hurdle, usually surrendering vital points to Lyon along the path to their second-place finish. Lyon already handled them comfortably once back in November with the return leg in Paris set for 14 March. PSG have not always  been the heavy-hitting team they are today. However,constant investment and a steady rise from the lower divisions have proved that time and millions in the bank make almost anything possible (except, perhaps, winning the league).  Having struck the right balance across the pitch, the team moves fluidly. Much like Lyon, they don’t lack in any area but particularly boast riches in attack, and this season the team is flying thanks to the attacking partnership of suburban Parisien duo Marie-Antoinette Katoto and Kadidiatou Diani. The dynamic duo account for the lionshare of the team’s xG.

No more, no less 

The pattern in France has always been two or three at the top with one or two nipping at the heels of the title chasers, and although teams have come and gone, that trend has remained a constant. A team who’ve been in both packs over the years, Montpellier, are struggling to really find their footing after coming off the boil last campaign, yet the team from the Mediterranean coast still have enough to rise above the also-rans. While the side is uniformly talented, without any notable weak links, a lack of consistency causes problems for Montpellier and the team also struggles for a stand-out player who might rescue them when they wobble, having lost a number of starters over the last few years. However, the acquisition of Lena Peterman from Turbine Potsdam remains an astute one; the striker is in good form and quite menacing in the box. She’s undeniably excellent at poaching goals by taking shots of the absolute highest quality. The team that have all but usurped Montpellier, Bordeaux are the current bronze medal contenders, and having spent their last four seasons in the league steadily rising, should easily be the neutral’s choice for the year. Managed by Pedro Martínez Losa, there is a sense of something blossoming in the region known for its wine production – and it’s not a fruit forward red with a robust finish. The team, like many that challenge for something in France, lead from the front. Whilst the signing of highly rated Jamaican international Khadija “Bunny” Shaw is what had people talking before the season started, it’s been homegrown Viviane Asseyi that’s set the team alight this term. With an exceptional turn of pace and composed touch, Asseyi has dragged Bordeaux forward from the front, bulking out her goal tally and partnering well with both Shaw and up and comer Ouleymata Sarr.

The background characters

In D1F, fifth to tenth is a wash of similar teams all trying to better themselves, bouncing from a promising season to a disappointing one and back again, with players drifting in and out of teams as they look to better themselves.. These are the teams most likely to cause a few upsets along the way – like Dijon’s surprising, and extremely unlikely, 0–0 at home to Lyon – but are also likely to get battered by the teams at the top. Paris FC have failed to keep pace with the changing times in the league. The side, formerly from Juvisy, used to be Champions League regulars,, but after being integrated into the Ligue 2 club in 2017 have failed to recapture any former glory. Still boasting a lot of the same players from years past, this team has more experience than it has quality. It also has a habit of zapping the potential out of players, leaving the club a study in mediocrity.  A team that tends to huff and puff more than it blows your house down, En Avant Guingamp remain one of the teams in France that could yet ascend to the coveted (if not frustrating) category of no more, no less. Despite being unable to find her 2016–17 season form, her best yet, Desire Oparanozie still offers an out in attack, but her role is fast being overtaken by Louise Fleury, who has a growing knack for popping up in the right place at the right time. The team is boosted by having Solène Durand between the sticks, the would-be French number one with a keen ability to throw her body in front of anything goal-bound. A side that could yet go tumbling down the well in future seasons, Fleury 91 started life out in the division promisingly enough but have slowed to a near-halt in recent times. With talented yet underperforming players, the increasingly porous team may yet benefit from moving away from their current first choice goalkeeper, Laëtitia Philippe.. Like Fleury, ASJ Soyaux’s days (or seasons) in D1F seem numbered. In their seventh consecutive season in the league, Soyaux are on track to record their lowest points tally since promotion in 2012-13. Except for an early season win over Guingamp, Soyaux have failed to beat a team placed above them in the table, the side seemingly having peaked before Christmas and struggling more and more with each passing game. Having not changed personnelle (on the pitch, or in the dugout) from last season, there is no logic to the decline; the team one that looks equally laborious in and out of possession. Just about treading water this season, thanks in part to Sarah Cambot’s handful of goals – including a sublime bicycle kick against Dijon – the future for Soyaux seems a bleak one.  The newest addition to the league, Stade de Reims, have had the customary bumpy welcome but often have good ideas when they’re on the ball. Still acclimatising to the tempo of the top tier, Reims’ naivete in defence has led to them conceding from four penalties – only Marseille and Metz have conceded from more. The good news for the team is that those penalties overshadow a defense that otherwise would rank a respectable seventh in the league, just barely below average. Cut out the penalties and they might be able to hang around. The final side that should be safe this year, Dijon consistently struggle to impress and have issues with creating chances from open play while remaining leaky at the back. Not one of the youngest teams in the league, the supposed experience of the side seems to amount to very little. Even though Dijon have one of the worst concession numbers in the league, they do boast a goalkeeper, Emmeline Mainguy, who is a dab hand at claiming crosses. Yet the goalkeeper is too often let down by the defence in front of her. She is, in fact, the most aggressive keeper in the league attempting claims on 12.5% more balls into her area than an average keeper would, the largest such gap in France’s first division. Who knows where the side would be without her commanding presence.

Au revoir 

For Olympique Marseille, this season has been quite the disappointment. There’s not one particular thing the side has failed at, but rather they appear just below par across the pitch, looking every part a D2F team.. Having been inflicted with the heaviest defeats the league has seen this season, the team have frequently looked static especially in defence, slow to close down threats. A major problem for a team that does almost all of its defending in and around its own penalty area. OM’s inability to act quickly enough in defence is all too obvious when you consider just how often they’ve conceded from set pieces this season. Although, with ten goals conceded from only 6.5 expected, it’s quite possible that they’re getting unlucky in addition to not being good enough. Another team that have looked like girls against women from the off this season, Metz have only found the back of the net 7 times in 16 outings this term, a number that looks even worse when you strip out a penalty and an own goal. For a team that looks destined to go down, it will be a cold comfort that xG suggests they were somewhat unlucky not to have scored a few more. It’s all been far too insipid across the pitch. The team is quick to give possession away and far too flimsy when it comes to trying to win the ball back. Susceptible from range as well as in their own six-yard box, there is little hope left for Metz who — like many before them — seem destined for [at best] yo-yoing between the second and first tiers, never able to make any meaningful progress. 

Usually, this weekly StatsBomb Bundesliga Digest focuses on one subject. But there’s a lot to talk about this week, so let’s hit four talking points today. Off we go.

Remplacement needed for injured Robert Lewandowski

So, yeah. Bayern were amazing in midweek. Sure, the thorough beating of Chelsea in London was somewhat expected for those who follow the Bundesliga and Premier League on a detailed, weekly basis. But the fashion in which Der Rekordmeister put aside manager Frank Lampard’s squad, was downright impressive. Shortly after the game, Raphael Honigstein reported that Bayern chairman Karl-Heinz Rummenigge strongly hinted at the post-match banquet that interim manager Hansi Flick will get the nod as the permanent hire. Which, in all fairness, is something he has deserved with the sound turnaround of Bayern under his guidance. There was one bit of bad news to be reported post-Chelsea as well. Striker Robert Lewandowski will be sidelined for a couple of weeks due to a shinbone injury. So Bayern will have to replace a god-level frontman in the upcoming weeks. While Dutch teenager Joshua Zirkzee has shown promise in Bayern’s second squad and the youth teams - and has scored twice in his first ten minutes of Bundesliga football this season as a ‘Joker’ from the bench during hectic finishes - it does not likely that the hard-pressing squad of Flick will give the striker keys to an unproven 18-year old. The logical solution to Lewandowski’s absence seems to be giving Thomas Müller a different role. The veteran energizer bunny dominated Chelsea with his off-ball runs and smart positioning as Bayern’s central attacking midfielder, but still has an excellent knack of getting good shots in a semi-striker-like role.  Shifting Müller up top will open up the 10 position in Flick’s formation. Lewandowski’s absence seems to be an ideal time for Leon Goretzka to definitively prove that he should be a day-in and day-out starter for Bayern. Giving more minutes to Barça loanee Philippe Coutinho in the upcoming weeks is also a possibility in case Müller does play as the central striker. The Brazilian will probably get his minutes as an inverted left-winger in the next game or two, with Ivan Perisic still out injured and Kingsley Coman picking up his umteenth knock in London in midweek.  Although Bayern do not seem all too willing to pay up the big bucks required to definitively buy Coutinho from the Catalans next summer, we shouldn’t get too caught up in the narrative that the technically very gifted Brazilian’s career is in a sharp downward spiral. Yes, Coutinho has been inconsistent in Munich as well, but his peaks are still very high.

Timo Werner in 2020: slump or nah?

This should come as no surprise to anyone who slightly follows German football, but Werner was on an absolute tear before the winter break. But in a four week period in 2020, Werner went on a five game stretch with no goal or assist. His underlying numbers in the new year also seem to suggest something was up with the RB Leipzig superstar.  With two goals and an assist in his last two games (against Tottenham and Schalke), Werner seems to have regained his form. But whatever was bothering him in the weeks before - be it a fitness issue, fatigue, a case of ‘transfer fever’ (with Liverpool explicitly in the market for him) or just a spell of poor form - was something real, and not just a dose of bad luck. 

Why Bayer Leverkusen are the ‘not-so-fast-my-friend’ team of the Bundesliga

When looking at the current Bundesliga league table, maybe the biggest surprise is Bayer Leverkusen. No, not the fact that they’re in fifth place. That’s a pretty Leverkusen-y place to be in the table. The fact that Peter Bosz’ squad is just six points behind league-leaders Bayern München is surprising though, given the up-and-down nature of Leverkusen’s form when you look at the team from an ‘eye-test’ point of view. Life seems to be good - like good-good - for Die Werkself at the moment. The squad has won six of its last seven league games, and is still active in both the DFB Pokal and Europa League. But not so fast there, my friend. Before you point to Leverkusen as a dark horse title contender, let’s have a little look at their underlying numbers. If we look at the rolling xG trendline, we actually see that this squad - who were quite unlucky, finishing-wise, in the opening months - is benefiting from some hot shooting and not-too-accurate opposition.  During Leverkusen’s period of six wins in seven league games, they’ve faced five teams from the bottom half of the league table (including three of the bottom four teams).  That Leverkusen’s winning streak does not seem likely to extend much further, seems to come down to their defensive intensity. Bosz prefers a high-octane full-press as his team’s playing style, but Leverkusen have actually struggled somewhat this season when it comes to pressuring the opposing build-up.

Schalke 04 should brace themselves for a hefty drop

Schalke were the big over-performers in the Bundesliga before the winter break. Manager David Wagner manufactured a lot of patchwork offensive efficiency with some smart lineups and tactical tweaks. But in 2020, the lack of actually good players in the squad has cost Schalke 04. Big time. Three disappointing draws were bookended by 5-0 losses against the two big cats of the league (Bayern and Leipzig) in the last stretch of games. Schalke are still in sixth place, which would qualify them for next year’s Europa League at season’s end. But Die Königsblauen should probably aim for a league finish in the top half of the table when being somewhat realistic. Their attacking output has been really bad since the break. And a defensive skid is expected with the injury-caused absences of veteran defenders Benjamin Stambouli and Salif Sané.

It’s time for this week’s roundup of the action in La Liga: Celta Vigo’s improvement under Óscar García, Levante’s contrary approach, and Ángel Correa’s impressive season.

Improved Celta Vigo

There were valid concerns about off-pitch issues when Celta Vigo brought in Óscar García to replace head coach Fran Escribá in November, but it was always clear that García’s approach would be better suited to the squad than the reactive football of his predecessor. So it has proved. Celta have improved significantly in attack. And marginally in defence. The end result is that a team that posted the league’s fifth-worst expected goal difference during their 12 matches under Escribá have since moved up to the eleventh-worst team in the league by that measure — six places higher from a run of 13 fixtures that included trips to both Barcelona and Real Madrid. It took a little while for the results to catch up, but a win over Sevilla, a draw away at Madrid and Saturday’s 1–0 victory at home to direct rivals Leganés have lifted Celta out of the drop zone. Things down there could still go almost anywhere. Espanyol, Leganés, Mallorca, Celta and now Eibar are all scrapping it out to avoid filling the three relegation places. But Celta’s change in style, along with their January reinforcements, has given them a good foundation to help them avoid the drop.

Levante, the Model Beaters

Levante produced the shock of the weekend with a 1–0 home win over Real Madrid, although perhaps it shouldn’t have been quite so unexpected given they'd already defeated Barcelona at the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia earlier this season. Paco López’s side are 10th in the league, closer on points to the top six than the bottom three, and comfortably on course for a fourth consecutive campaign of top-flight football. Which is all well and good, but their underlying numbers are horrible — the worst in La Liga. And last season, when they finished 15th, but a full seven points clear of the bottom three? Yep, same thing. This has been a thing ever since López took charge in March 2018. The chart compares xG difference to actual goal difference (both excluding penalties) over time, using a 15-match rolling average. The green zone represents over-performance of the underlying numbers. The vertical blue line is when López replaced Juan Ramón Muñiz as head coach. López’s Levante have consistently and fairly significantly out-performed their xG difference. They did so by 9 goals across his 11 matches in charge at the back end of 2017–18, by 12.5 goals in 2018–19, and they're doing it by over 10 goals this season. Only Barcelona, with Lionel Messi, are further ahead of their underlying numbers. The team is unusual because López’s approach is contrary to the prevailing style in Spain. In general, matches in La Liga feature low shot counts, while high defensive lines and strong pressure on the ball are becoming defining traits of the league. Levante, meanwhile, defend deep and passively, and involve themselves in back-and-forth shot-fests. Levante’s matches feature a league-high average of 27.24 shots. Only Villarreal, at 26.76, are anywhere near them. After those two, the next highest average is under 24 shots per match. Unsurprisingly, Levante’s matches also feature more xG than those of any other side. Could it be that by going so obviously against the grain, they’ve slipped into some hole in the model? Interestingly, how Levante are beating their xG difference had changed this season. In both 2017–18 and 2018–19, the attack contributed around 70% of the over-performance; this season, the defensive side accounts for 88% of it. Much of that appears to be to the credit of goalkeeper Aitor Fernández, who has prevented over 12 more goals than the average goalkeeper would have been expected to given the quality of the shots faced. (Attentive readers will note that this is higher than the team’s total over-performance, a disparity accounted for by the fact that the placement of the shots Fernández has faced, the additional element that goes into the post-shot xG model, have produced a higher xG total than the sum of all shots faced by Levante on the standard xG model). When the quantity of shots faced by each goalkeeper is accounted for, his shot-stopping performance this season is only bettered by that of Athletic Club’s Unai Simón. What does all this mean for the future? Levante are secure this season, but can they keep over-performing to the same degree next time around? Can they possibly continue to concede such a high volume of shots (16.08 this season; 17.32 last) and not eventually get themselves into trouble? Is López simply some kind of bald wizard? We’ll have to wait and see.

Correa’s Career Year

Ángel Correa seemed to be on his way out of Atlético Madrid last summer. By the back end of last season, he had pretty firmly settled into a role as an impact substitute, and the club were willing to negotiate his departure. But after talks with Milan broke down, he stayed. Correa didn’t see many minutes in the early part of the campaign, and it wasn’t until late October that he first started consecutive matches, but he has since established himself as a vital attacking contributor. In fact, this is the most productive season of his career to date. He's provided 0.71 goals and assists per 90 minutes, a team-high and the eighth-best in La Liga. His combined xG and xG assisted is 0.52, the tenth-best in the division. This increase in output is explained by a clear change in his style of play. Correa is operating further up the pitch, dribbling and carrying the ball forward less often, and receiving the ball inside the penalty area almost twice as much as he did last season. He's particularly adept at finding space to receive toward the right side of the area. This move has contributed to an increase in both his shot output and the quality of the chances he creates for teammates. For comparison, here's a map of the shots he assisted last season. And those he's assisted this season. Statistically, the average xG value of his shots assisted has gone from 0.13 to 0.17 — a fairly significant increase. All of these changes were evident on Sunday, when Correa produced a decisive performance in Atlético’s 3–1 win at home to Villarreal. He sneaked across the front of a defender to equalise with a low finish late into the first half, and then received a pass into the area from Kieran Trippier (who has found him there more than twice as often as any other Atlético player this season) and crossed for Koke to head them into the lead. Injuries to the front line gave Correa his opportunity, and he took full advantage of it, making himself a key component of the Atlético attack. There is unlikely to be much talk of a departure once the summer rolls around.

Death, taxes, some form of end-of-season carnage in League One. The three certainties of life on planet Earth. At this point last season, it was the relegation battle encompassing 50% of the division that was causing palpitations across the third tier on a weekly basis. This season the logjam occurs at the top: eight points separates Rotherham in 1st with Ipswich in 8th. It’s jostling, bunching, tight and bordering on claustrophobic. At least two of the sides that have eyes focused squarely on promotion won’t even make the end of season play-offs. It’s someone’s job to sift through it all to help form a clearer picture for you ahead on the run-in, and the pleasure is all mine. Looking to complete another rotation of their perpetual yo-yoing are current leaders of the pack, Rotherham. Paul Warne hasn’t quite refined the formula to keep the club in the Championship yet, but the managerial alchemist seems to have found a potent combination to securing promotion from League One, something he’ll have achieved twice in two attempts should the Millers get over the line. The elements at the forefront of this formula are straightforward: pressing & set pieces. No team in the league presses harder or higher than Rotherham… … which just makes them an unpleasant and uncomfortable side to play against: 90 minutes of constant duelling all over the pitch, on the ground and in the air. 28% of the opposition’s passes are pressed aggressively by Rotherham, the highest percentage in League One. As well as making the opposition run a red and white gauntlet, they match this with a, frankly absurd, set piece threat, scoring 21 set piece goals in 31 matches. Another note is the fitness levels of the side, owed in large part to Warne’s previous role as a fitness coach. Where the rest of the league may be just starting to flag with the majority of a gruelling season behind them, the Millers may only just be hitting their peak. An ominous sign to their promotion rivals. A strong run has propelled Coventry from play-off hopefuls into the automatic promotion places. Were the Sky Blues to go up this season it would be the culmination of three years of upward trajectory under Mark Robins, after securing a play-off promotion from League Two in 2017-18 and just missing out on a play-off berth in last season’s League One. It’s as commendable as it is surprising that Coventry have managed to hit these heights despite being forced to play their home games at a neutral venue, but equally impressive is that they’re doing so with the 2nd youngest squad on average across the whole division. Their collection of early and mid-peak players has swept aside far more experienced campaigners to get to this position, playing an easy-on-the-eye short passing possession game in the process. Despite the acclaim for their on-ball work, it’s as much their shape out of possession that has led them to this position, having only been defeated on three occasions this season and conceding the joint-fewest shots per game alongside Rotherham. Wycombe’s unlikely rise to the top of the division in the first half of the season was eye-catching and eyebrow-raising in equal measure. As more fancied outfits stalled around them, the Chairboys stole a march and they remain in contention despite being clawed back into the pack more recently. Part of their unlikely rise was owed in-part to a bit of a statistical freak when they embarked on a run of eight games between October and December in which they conceded just one goal, scored ten and managed to go W6 D2 L0. Seven clean sheets in eight games was some doing and they’d given very few genuine chances away in that time but of their opponents’ 101 shots, just 10 hit the target and just one made it into the net. A 1% conversion rate is rare at any level even in small eight game samples. I reiterate that Wycombe defended well in that time but cruelly, as if to ram home the point of how unlikely it was, from their next 101 shots Wycombe conceded 14 goals and their lead at the top was eaten up. Given their position, no one will tell Wycombe not to shoot for the stars and outrun their pre-season expectations by as great a margin as possible from here. As unlikely as it is, we’ve seen unlikely occurrences at Adams Park already this season, so why not another? Next… Sunderland AFC [suhn-der-luh nd] noun

1. A football team located in a Tyne and Wear seaport, in North East England.
2. A vortex. Defined as that downward swirling motion regularly observed in nature, often during volatile environmental conditions. A vortex is manifested in different forms, such as tornadoes, whirlpools, or a flushing toilet.

I’ll let you decide which of those forms best describes Sunderland’s recent years. Joking aside, it genuinely appears that Sunderland might have found the saviour to kick that downward swirling motion into reverse. The most confounding thing about Phil Parkinson’s impact in turning the team around was that his first milestone as the new manager was to lead them to the lowest league position in their history on Christmas Day 2019 after picking up just eight points in his first eight games, leaving them in the bottom half of the table. Surely the only thing that’d turn the season and get the fans onside would be a run of 30 points from the next 13 games? Thankfully for Parkinson, that’s what he managed to achieve and promotion rivals are now shifting nervously as the Black Cats pick up that all important momentum (and other such proverbials) heading into the final straight. Eight clean sheets in their last nine means Sunderland now have the best defensive record in the league but another piece of good work by Parkinson has been to get Lynden Gooch firing and showing his best form since their relegation. A quick and easy way to summarise Peterborough’s season so far would be to examine their expected goals trendlines. There’s been three strong periods of narrative amongst the fanbase which I’ll annotate below:

• Early peak: “Wow, we cannot stop scoring goals! Marcus Maddison, Mo Eisa and Ivan Toney are the Holy Trinity of goalscoring and creativity!”
• Middle trough: “Wow, whatever this is, it is not working. Marcus Maddison sold, Mo Eisa dropped. Please ditch the diamond formation.”
• Late peak: “Wow, we cannot stop scoring goals! Sammy Szmodics, Siriki Dembele and Ivan Toney are the Holy Trinity of goalscoring and creativity!”

In all seriousness, Darren Ferguson gets credit for successfully changing the shape and personnel of the team when it stopped working to keep the promotion aim alive, a major quirk of Peterborough’s season being the difference in the first-choice team being five, if not six, players different to the first choice used during the early season good form. If Peterborough do seal promotion then a lot will be down to the form of Ivan Toney up front, who has made the leap from flashes of potential to simply far too good for this level. The January-acquired support act of Sammy Szmodics has also proven to be a shrewd signing and not just because of his four goals and three assists in his first seven appearances for Posh; his movement in the hole both when Peterborough have and do not have possession has been far more effective to the system than that of predecessor Marcus Maddison. Five wins in a row sees Fleetwood make a timely run into the top six. A recent run of seven draws in nine games threatened to blow their promotion ambitions off course but the evolution in the team since the turn of the year looks to be paying off. More mobility has been added to the backline in Everton loanees Callum Connolly and Lewis Gibson, counterbalanced with the installation of he-of-over-200-Premier-League-appearances Glenn Whelan to central midfield, and the tweaks appear to have taken the Cod Army to a new level. For a team that has spent more time out of the top six than in it this season, the signs, particularly defensively, have always been there in the underlying numbers that they could be capable of ending up there. They give away fewer than 10 shots per game, which are rarely of a clear-cut quality, and give very little away on set plays. A foundation as solid as that could enable Fleetwood to swim upstream, through the busy logjam and into Championship waters. Portsmouth are another resurgent force hitting form at the right time of the season. Falling in last season’s play-offs, Pompey were pre-season favourites to win the league this time around but found themselves as low as 16th in November. The early struggles were a result of the slight flaws in Kenny Jackett’s system being exposed repeatedly. There were numerous games in the early stages where Pompey would have an equal or better part of the game, and either go behind in unlikely circumstances or routinely concede an equaliser having looked to defend any lead they’d gained, when if anything they’d had the better opportunities to extend their lead. They simply couldn’t close a game out. The performances during this run were never as bad as the results they were getting and below highlights the disparity between Portsmouth’s expected goal difference and actual goal difference in the earlier part of the season, with green shade representing an underperformance. The early struggles prompted Kenny Jackett to rethink the process and the answer he came up with was to shift the team up the pitch, pressing higher and aiming to disrupt the opposition’s build up further away from Portsmouth’s goal. You’ll see below, the average distance away from their own goal that they’re committing defensive actions (in purple) has increased, with the amount of passes the opposition are allowed to complete before a Portsmouth defensive action (in green) has decreased. The introduction of the energetic Andy Cannon to the #10 position as well as the January acquisition of Cameron McGeehan has helped to alter the balance of the side in a positive way and hopes of going one further than last season are far from extinguished. When I put it to you that Ipswich have picked up 25 points from their last 22 games you would be perfectly entitled to wonder how they remain in this race. They exploded out of the blocks with 8 wins in their first 11 games but the downward trend in both results and performances has seen them fall flat on their face since. Only a reverse of those trends would see an automatic promotion place become theirs. Exactly why their early season results contrast so starkly from runaway title winning standard to bottom-half struggler standard seems to be a cocktail of factors. They were wildly overperforming in the early stages: on-pitch performances were never as good as such a dominant run of results and inevitably results were always going to come back down to earth a bit. Secondly, the long-term injury to flying wing-back Kane Vincent-Young, who gave the team real attacking impetus on the right flank which has so far proven to be irreplaceable. The juggling between teams and systems to try and redress that imbalance is the third factor; the level of rotation and tinkering between personnel and team shape without identifying a solution that works. Fourth is just good old player form. Only Flynn Downes has performed to a consistently good level for Ipswich this season, look across the rest of the side and it’s hard to spot a player that’s made a significant impact on the division, with individuals showing form in bursts but never across a prolonged stretch of games. That said, there’s still 25% of the season in which to fix those issues, but in order to go up Ipswich will have to start doing something we haven’t seen them do for half a season now.