Month: January 2019

This is awkward, but we really need to talk about Manuel Neuer. He’s a legend of a keeper. For a decade he’s been a unique and special player. His ability with the ball at his feet gained him a cult following, but it was the fact that he paired that with some of the best fundamental goalkeeping ability in the world that made him truly special. He was great at the basics. And then sometimes he’d also dribble the ball around just for fun. But the basics seem to have abandoned him. Bayern’s dominance means Neuer isn’t often called into action. The team only gives up 7.61 shots per match. That’s the best number in the Bundesliga. They are incredibly good at stifling opponents’ attacks. And, even when they do ultimately give up shots, those shots tend not to be dangerous ones. Opponents, on average, take shots from 18.49 yards away from Bayern’s goal. That’s the furthest out of any side in the Bundesliga, and they’re worth 0.09 expected goals per shot, again the lowest average volume. The shots Bayern are giving up don’t seem to be bad shots. And, yet, they keep flying into the net. It is of course possible, that Neuer has simply run into a string off awful luck. That despite having a mediocre collection of shots, strikers just keep hitting the ball outstandingly and picking out corners in ways that Neuer couldn’t hope to stop. Except that post-shot xG suggests this isn’t the case. The post-shot value of the shots Neuer has faced is almost exactly the same. The model spits out 11.0 expected goals conceded from open play. Neuer has conceded 16. There is one interesting statistical wrinkle here. As the two charts show, relatively few of the shots that Bayern have given up have found their way on target, and of those that have, they’ve been mostly the most dangerous shots. The result is that despite the fairly innocuous profile of shots that Bayern have given up on the whole, the ones that Neuer has ended up facing have been quite dangerous. His job has been harder than it might seem at first glance. His expected save rate is only 69.7%. That’s the seventh lowest in the league. The problem is, that even when you adjust for all of that Neuer is still failing miserably. His save percentage is only 59%. Among first choice keepers that’s the second lowest total in the league. Worse, the difference between his save percentage, and his expected save percentage, that 10.7% gap, it’s also the second worst in Germany. There’s no way to sugar coat it. Neuer has just been bad. The fact that Bayern themselves are quite good has gone a long way to masking his performance. They’ve only conceded 19 total goals. Only two teams have conceded fewer, and they’re on 18. Bayern’s defensive record is close to the best in the league, so how bad could Neuer really be anchoring it? Well, when you graph goals conceded against the goals save above average percentage it becomes clear just how large an outlier Neuer is. What this makes crystal clear is that the defense is carrying Neuer right now. He’s conceded a stingy number of goals despite the way he’s played. The defense deserves the credit for not allowing more dangerous shots for Neuer to struggle saving. It’s not like Neuer is dominating in the air when it comes to commanding his box either. Here’s the heatmap showing how likely he is to come for claimable balls in his box. He faced 212 total balls, and came for 12 of them, a little more conservative than the 13.6 our model predicts. That makes him, by our model, only the seventh most aggressive keeper in and around his penalty area in the Bundesliga. It’s also true that he’s faced very few balls that a keeper would frequently claim. Only five balls into the box all season where the type that a keeper would come for more than 30% of the time. He came for two of them (an exactly average frequency given the balls faced), but he missed one. The fact that his overall success rate on claims is 92% and fine, exists in concert with the fact that he’s only one for two on the more meaningful ones. In a different context maybe these stats wouldn’t be so alarming. Players have bad stretches, even great ones. Keepers have bad years, or half years, and bounce back all the time. But, taking a step back actually makes the situation look worse, not better. Neuer isn’t young, he’ll be 33 in March. Keepers often have longer athletic lives than outfield players, but 33 is still pushing it. It’s an age where, in a vacuum you’d expect a keeper to get worse not better. Then there are the injuries. Neuer missed the vast majority of last season with foot problems. His performance still hasn’t recovered. Correlation doesn’t equal causation, but it doesn’t rule it out either. Put it all together and this is a four-alarm fire for Bayern. Neuer used to be a star, now he’s facing a life comes at you fast crisis. All of a sudden he’s become an old keeper coming off an injury who hasn’t come close to recovering his form half a season after getting back on the pitch. If Bayern don’t rally over the last half of the season and catch Borussia Dortmund, Neuer’s deterioration will be a large part of what went wrong. A year ago it would have been sacrilegious to question Neuer’s place. Now? Unless he improves dramatically over the second half of this season it’s clear Bayern will need to upgrade the keeper position going into next year. The keeper might be a legend, but eventually father time comes for legends too.

There is always something brewing behind the scenes at Real Madrid -- a team generally too deep in too many positions to satisfy every star’s playing time. Every season there are head-scratchers on the bench -- James Rodriguez, Gareth Bale -- but those absentees weren’t noticed as much with Zinedine Zidane winning as prolifically as he did. Winning masks everything. This season, with the team struggling, and Isco coming off the bench, the noise surrounding the Isco - Solari union keeps mounting. Isco plays a theoretical position in Real Madrid -- just like James did, just as Coutinho does at Barcelona, and just as Mesut Ozil does at Arsenal. These players are labelled, at mass, as a ‘10’ -- stereotypical turtles who grind the offense to a painstaking hault. They’re great at controlling tempo, but sometimes the offense needs an extra jolt. Under Lopetegui, Real Madrid had plenty of the ball, but not many clear-cut chances or goals. Solari wants to have his offense slightly more rigid positionally, which leaves less room for roaming creators. Media outlets throwing around skewed stats don’t help the narrative. Real Madrid haven’t won a good percentage of games with Isco in the team -- but that’s mostly because Isco has been coming in late off the bench when Solari’s men are chasing games against stubborn defensive schemes. Isco is not without his faults. This season, he’s struggled to show his form from the 2016/2017 campaign (or some of his great showings in the Champions League in ‘17/18). Since returning from injury, he hasn’t looked match-fit (almost reasonably, to be sure, given that appendicitis is not an easy procedure to return from). In his return against Levante earlier this season, he was dispossessed multiple times, and gave the ball away in deep areas. Against Viktoria Plzen at home, he was whistled for a selfish attempt -- when a simple square pass to Benzema would’ve resulted in a goal. When he came on at half-time for an injured Bale against Villarreal, Real Madrid’s entire tempo decelerated, as Isco dropped deeper to combine with the midfielders rather than pushing high up the pitch as an outlet in transition as the Welshman did. But the sample size with Isco in the team is hard to ignore, and his form under Zidane shouldn’t be that unrecoverable for a player who’s 26 and in the prime of his career. We’re witnessing a Real Madrid team that can’t deal with an opposing high press, nor can they find the ingenuity needed on a consistent basis to break down stubborn low-blocks. Isco fits both needs -- he is press-resistant, and like Marcelo, can find space in impossible situations. It’s hard to decipher just what the reason is for Isco finding himself coming off the bench. There are signs from within the team that Solari’s decision is less personal, and more logical: The Spanish midfielder is still not 100% match fit, and you already know what you’re going to get from the players ahead of him. Vinicius is a gung-ho, line-breaking menace (raw, full of mistakes, and yet the biggest offensive threat Real Madrid have had of late), and Lucas Vazquez is a two-way winger with a ceaseless motor. Solari has not favoured Isco in deeper positions either, as after the Modric / Kroos tandem, the Argentine coach has opted to roll with a box-to-box, decisive player in Fede Valverde; or a frenetic, energy-filled Dani Ceballos. And energy, as intangible as it sounds, is something Real Madrid have missed badly. Dani Ceballos fuelled the team with his off-ball movement and defensive coverage against Sevilla, in what was one of the team’s best performances of the season: https://streamable.com/o97ms That was a sequence where Ceballos sprinted back to cover for Ramos, who was caught out of position after a giveaway. Ceballos then helps Reguilon dispossess Jesus Navas. On an ensuing play, he’s on the opposite flank, covering the passing lane behind Dani Carvajal: https://streamable.com/cwfc0 Neither of these plays are foreign to Isco, which makes the entire situation so bewildering. Isco is a highly intelligent defensive player, and his work rate has been exemplary in the past. Against PSG in last season’s Champions League round-of-16 first leg, Isco ran himself into the ground, pressed like a maniac, won the ball high up the pitch, and was efficient covering defensively for surging wingbacks. He can play either the left central midfield or left wing positions just fine -- and isn’t only reliant on being shoehorned as the spearhead of a diamond formation. Isco isn’t playing well now, looks a step slow, and is missing some mojo -- but the attributes that Ceballos, Valverde, Vinicius, or Vazquez have are not beyond him. Even amid one of the most forgettable seasons in Isco’s career, he remains a steady contributor. Only the great Marcelo and the ever present Lucas Vazquez sling more open play key passes per 90 (1.68) in La Liga on the team than Isco; and the Spaniard completes 2.51 dribbles per 90 -- only Vinicius Jr, in very limited minutes, has more on the team, at 2.89 But Solari doesn’t pick his team based on what he knows Isco is capable of. He’s in ‘win-now’ mode, in what is perhaps a fleeting, short-term job for him. He needs players who are in top shape and ready to contribute. The Argentine has not been shy about benching players who aren’t up to speed physically -- with Marcelo taking a backseat against Sevilla; while Sergio Reguilon put in a strong defensive shift in his place. There is a directness, speed, verticality, and positional rigidity that Solari wants to play with, and other players are like-for-like puzzle pieces that can fit his scheme seamlessly. There is an expectation from coaches in general to play their best players. Egos are expected to be put aside (as they should be), and tactical flexibility should go hand-in-hand with getting the best out of your best players in order for both team and player to thrive. There is one thing that Real Madrid would want to consider: How much do they want to disgruntle Isco to the point where he desires to leave, at the hands of a transitory coach who’s likely at the helm for just a few months? It’s easy to pick your poison. Isco is one of the best players in the world, and Solari is an unproven manager whose value is not hard to replace. But looking at it that way is not that easy, even if tempting. While Solari is at Real Madrid, he should be given the reigns to make the decisions he feels are best for the team. That’s a gamble Real Madrid has to take, anyway. Trusting a caretaker doesn’t come without its perils. Leaving Isco on the bench while implementing a hyper-rigid system didn’t work out at first. The team hit rock bottom in a 3 - 0 defeat away to Eibar, when they couldn’t escape a press (while one of their most press-resistant players, Isco, wasn’t on the field). They struggled again in narrow wins over Huesca and Eibar. Trusting Solari seems to now be paying off. Of late, the team has been picking up steam. Solari seems to have found the balance between rigidity and fluidity -- there is more off-ball movement between the lines, and the now in-form Luka Modric is picking out his teammates in dangerous spots. While Solari may have issues on a personal level with Isco, there are enough tactical reasons for his decisions. But the team has to sustain this form, which is not easy, in order to fully justify not having Isco in the regular scheme. This isn’t a repeat of the Pogba - Mourinho trial, where Mourinho repeatedly threw Pogba under the bus publicly, and the tension was clear. Solari has shown respect to Isco publicly, stating that he “loves” him. Nacho has come out and said that Solari is “on Isco’s side”. Marcelo publicly stated after the 0 - 2 win away to Roma: “I’m not saying that he (Isco) is not working but when you see you have made a mistake you must improve.” Isco is not a lost cause -- his form is within reach, and the squad is on his side. He has come off the bench in most games under Solari, even if the outcome hasn’t all been successful. The team has gone through enough injuries and suspensions this season (and in the past) to assume Isco will always have a chance to claim his spot -- just as he rose in the 2016 / 2017 season amid Bale’s big injury to form a cohesive, control-based midfield alongside Toni Kroos and Luka Modric. But he didn’t crack the starting XI in any big games during this stretch with Bale and Asensio injured. Now Bale and Asensio (neither of whom are in form either) are inching their way back into the team. Marcos Llorente has also resumed training. While he’s not a comparable player positionally to Isco, his emergence on the scene this season means Solari will play either him or Casemiro as the team’s single pivot -- taking away one more starting XI spot as Toni Kroos will no longer be pushed back as a defensive midfielder, which would free up a LCM slot for Isco. Real Madrid are famously thin at the striker position, but have loaded depth in midfield, where the great Isco resides. The ideal scenario for everyone involved is for Solari to unearth the Isco from two seasons ago and get Real Madrid ticking at a fluid tempo, retaining possession high up the pitch and attacking their opponents relentlessly. But whether he can do that, when hungry players like Ceballos, Valverde and Vinicius are exiting the realm of fringe rotation, is a different question. “Competition within the squad is an essential part of football,” Solari told the media ahead of Thursday’s Copa del Rey clash with Girona. “Everyone must feel they have an opportunity and can lose their place [if they don't do well]."   Image courtesy of the Press Association

Justin Kluivert’s move from Ajax to Roma during the summer of 2018 was a fascinating deal. On finances alone the transfer wasn’t anything extraordinary, though Ajax did fairly well in recouping just over €17 million considering Kluivert had only a year left on his contract. Two things made the move interesting: Kluivert was leaving at age 19 for a Champions League level club in Serie A after just over 3000+ minutes at Ajax across two seasons, and the club he was going to in Roma had a large squad so game time might’ve been an issue during his first season. Leaving so early in his development was risky.

Kluivert was a precocious young talent at Ajax. When isolated on the left wing he was consistently able to get a step on opponents, and he displayed some acumen for left footed crosses which hinted at the possibility of having added value as a two-footed winger. Kluivert was a high end prospect, and it wasn't hard to see his appeal. It was fair to say that he wasn't quite a generational talent, but certainly someone who was on the high end of 18-21 year-old prospects in European football.

As it stands now, Kluivert is on pace to play at least 1500 Serie A minutes, which isn’t an insignificant amount of playing time for a teenager and makes the bet he took on himself look smarter in retrospect. In an alternative world where his contract wasn’t running down, getting another full season at Ajax and producing large numbers in the Eredivisie would have been good for his development, but the situation he's currently in at Roma has not proven to be a hindrance when it comes to game time. With the jump up in competition, it comes as no surprise that Kluivert’s production to this point has not been eye popping.

Initially, one would look at Kluivert’s production and be disappointed given the hype that surrounded him at Ajax. He’s basically been the equivalent of a league average attacking midfielder or winger. But context is key.  Given that Kluivert went from Ajax who have such a talent advantage over everyone in the Eredivisie not named PSV, to a top level, but not necessarily elite, Serie A club in Roma, his production was likely to take some dip. Also when accounting for age, and Roma's overall weirdness this season, it's not terribly hard to explain why Kluivert hasn't hit the ground running in Italy. This isn't to say that it's great that he's having the season he's had, but there shouldn't be any immediate worries.

You'll see flashes of what made Kluivert such a highly rated prospect with his ability to beat individuals off the dribble. The disparity between his completed dribbles and turnovers is a little bit worrying because that level of discrepancy as a wide player is when you're starting to take things off the table. Kluivert hasn't found it as easy to dart his way through the opposition as he did in the Netherlands, but the moments that Kluivert have conjured up are strong enough that I tend to believe he'll increase his dribble numbers to a rate that's more acceptable for his archetype of player. He's got a special level of acceleration that not a lot of wingers are blessed with.

Kluivert's decision making has not been much of a worry to this point. He's been able to use his athleticism in a functional manner to get a step on his marker and turn it into something positive for the team. His 2.14 open play key pass per 90 rate is second among Roma players who've played at least 600 minutes, and his open play expected goals assisted per 90 rate of 0.19 is tied for third. Certainly there have been instances where Kluivert cuts inside and instead of laying it off to a teammate and going for the safe option tries something else and it doesn't end up going well, but we're starting to see more instances of him doing productive things during semi-transition opportunities.

If there's one area in Kluivert's game to monitor moving forward, it would be his crossing and how much of a threat he is as a left footed crosser. If Kluivert turns out to be a sub-elite (or better) overall crosser as a wide player, it'll raises his ceiling even higher because you could utilize him in numerous ways. He could play as a more traditional winger on the right side where he could use his burst + crossing abilities to create chances for teammates in the box, or he could be an inverted winger and give the opposing fullback worries with being able to either cut inside with speed or deliver pinpoint crosses from closer to the touchline. To this point, Kluivert has completed 1.35 crosses per 90 minutes and has a 48% success rate on crossing attempts this season, which is the highest completion rate among Roma players with 600 or more minutes. I don't expect that figure to last, if only because that's such a high success rate that the odds are more likely it goes down. I was a bit skeptical that he was this amazing left-footed crosser, but he did have confidence in attempting left-footed crosses in the Eredivisie and that's translated with Roma. Projecting confidence as a crosser overall is half the battle, and the sample size is growing that he's a quality deliverer from the wide areas. Kluivert has also begun to use his speed and intellect to cause real danger to the opposition, whether it be for him individually or opening up a passing lane for a teammate. If there's one positive thing to take from Kluivert's season in Serie A so far, it's that going from the Eredivisie to a top 5 league has not made much of a difference with his off-ball athleticism. He was an elite athlete in Holland when it came to sprinting into open spaces, and that's translated fairly well in Italian football. On some level, it is a bit weird to be so effusive of a player who has produced okay results in league play but doesn't have numbers that jumps off the screen. Justin Kluivert hasn't hit the ground running in the same way that Jadon Sancho has at Dortmund where he's been a sensation. You can certainly nitpick at Kluivert's game: he has taken some bad shots from the left halfspace. With the current squad that Roma have, it's hard to envision Kluivert becoming a high volume shot taker so that makes it a bit harder to achieve a noteworthy xG contribution. If Kluivert doesn't turn out to be a very good-great crosser, that also chips away a bit at his overall value as well. It'll also be curious to monitor whether Kluivert turns out to be an above average shooter once there's a greater sample size of shots in Serie A, because some of his finishes in the Eredivisie made you wonder if that was his destiny But the moments Kluivert has had in Serie A play have been encouraging enough that those who were high on him coming into this season shouldn't be too worried about his progress, not to mention that he is averaging a 0.45 goals + assists per 90 rate as a 19 year old, which is nothing to sneeze at. The best thing that can be said about Justin Kluivert's season is that he hasn't look overwhelmed against Serie A competition to this point, and while he isn't light the world on fire in Italy, being a credible attacking player as a teenager is a positive sign for future stardom.   Header image courtesy of the Press Association

Football Twitter is often skeptical of Eredivisie talents. Recent high profile players have left the Netherlands and struggled elsewhere, and it's raised questions about how players will translate outside the Eredivisie cocoon. To be fair, there have also been recent success stories. Sebastien Haller has been very productive at Eintracht Frankfurt, Davinson Sanchez has generally been solid with Tottenham, and Justin Kluivert has shown flashes of his immense potential at Roma. All of that has left the Eredivisie in something of a weird state despite its reputation as a development league: there are still gems to be found if you look hard enough, but you're not provided with the same level of certainty that you do in a league like Ligue 1.

That brings us to Oussama Idrissi, who has filled the shoes of Alireza Jahanbakhsh as AZ Alkmaar’s vibrant winger. On the surface, Idrissi’s production is on the higher end of what you would want from a 22 year old attacker. He’s taking a lot of shots from decent areas, he’s creating chances for others, and his high dribble numbers would signal that he some burst with the ball at his feet. The turnover numbers are a bit concerning, but there’s a lot to like with what Idrissi has done this season, particularly given that he’s not getting the talent bump from playing on one of the two Dutch super teams, Ajax or PSV.

 

 

But again, you see that he’s doing this in the Eredivisie and the antennas start to go up. There are genuine challenges when trying to scout young talents in Holland: there’s both anecdotal and data-led evidence to suggest it’s a more wide open league, which makes it an optimal environment for attackers to do well. Defending is not exactly the greatest, both from an individual and team aspect. The distribution in talent from the likes of PSV and Ajax (and to a lesser extent Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar) to the lower end of the table is more pronounced than it is in other leagues, so higher end talents can really lay down the wood on lower end clubs and boost their individual numbers.

Given all those factors, when it comes to projecting future production, the bar for younger talents within Holland to be worth allocating resources for from bigger clubs around Europe is a bit higher than in other leagues. There are examples of those who’ve done that: Kluivert did so as a teenager with his ability to create separation off the dribble, and Steven Bergwijn himself showed a high level of athleticism and was a diverse chance creator. Those two were good enough that you wouldn’t be worried about them at least becoming solid players, and Kluivert is now plying his trade in Roma while Bergwijn will almost certainly get a move abroad in the next six to eight months.

Back to Idrissi, there are two question that can be asked about him:

• Has Idrissi produced at a high enough level to warrant further scouting?
• Does Idrissi pass the eye test?

The answer to the first question is yes. Even with what was said before about the Eredivisie, having individual shot volume and xG numbers that approaches the top 5% of attacking midfielders/wingers, while having notable chance creation numbers, still means something. His statistical profile is of a high usage wide player that produces tangible results in terms of individual shot statistics, and if that's even moderately translatable elsewhere, he becomes a valuable player who's not even of peak age yet.

Does Idrissi pass the eye test? That’s where things get a little bit tricky.

Let’s start off with the good, and there’s a fair amount of things to like about Idrissi’s game. One of Idrissi’s greatest strengths is something that actually doesn’t have to do with him doing anything on-ball, but rather what he does off-ball. He is very fast when it comes to running in a straight line or even making a looping run. When there's space behind the opposition defense, Idrissi will make a run towards the open space and try to be a target for a long ball over the top. During counter attacks where the ball is on the opposite side, Idrissi would use his speed to present himself as an option for a possible tap-in on the far post. You could see on a team with good passers how Idrissi could use his speed as a vehicle towards good scoring chances.

 

 

An interesting part of Idrissi's game is that he has a tendency to involve a teammate in combination play to help maneuver himself into the box for shooting chances. In particular, he'll make a grounded pass into a teammate for them to lay it off for Idrissi to use his quickness off the mark and get on the receiving end of the lay-off. It's in these instances that you see his skill on the ball in conjunction with his athleticism off of it, because he can also perform dribble moves before or after the lay-off from his teammate. There are times when this doesn't work: the lay-off is not placed properly for Idrissi to run onto or the spacing around the box is congested and they're too many bodies to navigate. But, on the whole, Idrissi can be quite clever in using combinations to generate shots.

 

 

Something that's interesting with Idrissi is that a lot of his shots this season have come from the wide left area of the penalty box. It's not hard to explain why this is the case: playing as an inverted left winger means you'll be prone to taking a fair amount of shots from the wide left channels when cutting inside. With Idrissi's tendency to use combination play to get into the box, particularly with his starting position being closer to the left touchline, that also would lead to him entering the box from the left side with few other options than to shoot. However you slice it, this could be a bit of a worry down the road because it's hard to convert chances against higher level competition from the wide areas of the box (it's one of the many things that made Sergio Aguero one of the greatest players in the PL era).

 

 

That's the good with Idrissi, and these are things in his game that you could envision translating elsewhere in the event that he makes a move to a tougher league. However, there are deficiencies that make you skeptical. Idrissi has shown some bounce off the dribble, as it'd be hard to average nearly 4 dribbles per 90 minutes without showing signs of being able to beat his marker on-ball. He's shown the ability to make multiple opponents miss during a sequence, and then follow it up with a positive event either individually with a shot or passing it elsewhere. Once in a while, he'll evade defenders from deeper areas and help progress play a bit further up the pitch. However, there are definitely times where he looks mortal. Idrissi doesn't have a lot of tricks or use a lot of feints to get separation in isolation situations when there's a switch of play. If he's on the left wing and he receives the ball, he'll size up his defender and push the ball to a certain spot in the hopes that he can use his speed to get to the ball first. Idrissi is fast, but he doesn't possess such outlier levels of speed that he can get to that ball consistently, so it can look bad at times.

 

 

Idrissi's passing hasn't shown to be a big worry against Eredivisie competition this season. He can create chances for others, as evident by his decent xA per 90 rate. He can make passes that start from the left wing and eventually land in the left halfspace if a teammate is open in that area of the pitch, and that's not an insignificant type of pass to have in your repertoire. When it comes to high difficulty passing, that's where I'm more skeptical of Idrissi's capabilities. He's cognizant of teammates making runs into advantageous areas, so he'll try to get them the ball so they have a chance to get isolated with the keeper, but he's not great with the delivery. It's somewhat similar to what Memphis Depay showed during his days at PSV where he had the awareness to attempt difficult passes, but not necessarily the execution. The worrying thing would be that if he's not able to make these passes in the Eredivisie, which has the environment that benefits attackers, one can't help but be a bit skeptical that he develops into a high level passer.

 

 

I'm not sure what to make of Oussama Idrissi as a prospect. His statistical resume is right up there with a lot of attackers around his age group across Europe, and some of the things he does when looking at the film make you want to believe that he should be with the likes of Bergwijn and Hector Lozano where you're not too worried about them moving abroad and being successful. But there are also times where the film makes it worrying to project high level production abroad with the lack of juice he can exhibit off the dribble, and the decent but not great passing he's shown. And maybe that's not fair to Idrissi. Maybe that's judging him too harshly through the lens of the Premier League and not giving enough weight to any potential successes in Serie A or Ligue 1 or even the Bundesliga given Germany doesn't have quite the daunting level of domestic competition that it had a few years back. It could just be that he goes to another league abroad other than England and more than holds his own.

I think there are two player comparisons that can be made with Oussama Idrissi. The first one would be Alireza Jahanbakhsh, that one being more of a comparison between what each did as AZ’s starting in the same position this season and last. What made Jahanbakhsh so dynamic within the Eredivisie last season was in addition to his gaudy goals and assist totals, he was such a versatile chance creator and overall playmaker that you couldn’t help but believe that his passing abilities would help him survive in the Premier League even with the questions surrounding his athleticism. It's fair to say that Idrissi and Jahanbakhsh have some differences in their skillset, but Jahanbakhsh represents an example of a talented wide attacker leaving Holland, and it's not been pretty for him even with the small sample size caveat.

 

 

The second player comparison would be with Lozano. Both Lozano and Idrissi skew towards the older range of prominent young talents in Holland, and that matters to some extent because the Eredivisie is a younger league and it’s a bit easier to dominate as a fully formed 22–23 year old. They also have somewhat similar roles as high usage wide forwards and use their off-ball speed to their advantage, albeit Lozano's speed is probably a notch or two better than Idrissi. From a statistical standpoint, what the two have done is comparable and Idrissi actually outshines Lozano in a couple of areas, which should in theory assuage some fears with Idrissi.

 

 

Despite that, there are multiple reasons why Lozano is a safer option than Idrissi. For one, Lozano has been playing at this level for multiple seasons now as a high shot volume attacker for PSV. Another reason is that between the World Cup and PSV’s group stage matches in the Champions League, Lozano’s skillset has been for the most part translatable against higher end competition, whereas Idrissi doesn’t have that same benefit of the doubt to this point as he was largely held in check against PSV, Ajax and Feyenoord. Lozano's ability to create separation off the dribble was something I was a bit skeptical of last season, but the World Cup exists as a data point in Lozano's favor because he was electric in the tournament and that matters on some level, even with international football being a more simple style of play compared to domestic football.

I am prepared for all types of scenarios with Idrissi. He could make this analysis look silly and absolutely kill it for his next club, becoming more of a household name in the process. He could also struggle a fair bit moving abroad and bring some of these issues to the forefront. Idrissi is an example of the mental exercises that talent evaluators should do when examining Eredivisie talents, and the complexities that come with hypothesizing how they'll do elsewhere. This isn't to say that clubs should be entirely skeptical of the Eredivisie when mining young talents, because you would be doing yourself a disservice and not be investigating all options to make yourself better on the pitch, but rather accepting the reality that there's some downside risk in doing so.