Month: January 2018

In just a scant few days the La Liga teams will return from their truncated winter rest. Before we dive head first into the home straight of the season, let's take a look back at what the first chunk of games has taught us, shall we? This isn't technically the halfway-point as Spain's domestic break comes after 17 games rather than 19. Don't worry though, we're not about to let that get in the way of a good ol' rummage through the numbers!

Valencia

From 2013 to 2016 Villarreal had a pretty successful run of seasons under then manager Marcelino, culminating in achieving Champions League qualification and reaching the Europa League semifinals in 2015/16. That summer - before they had even played their CL qualification match - vague tensions between Marcelino and the club’s higher-ups lead to him getting the sack out of nowhere. He took a sabbatical for the 2016/17 season and now is back in La Liga, taking charge of Valencia. At this stage they sit 3rd in the table with the 2nd best goal difference. After chewing through five managers in two seasons, Los Che appear to have found their man.

Marcelino’s Villarreal built their success on a rock-solid defensive 4-4-2 shape, somewhat like a more reserved version of Diego Simeone’s Atlético Madrid. In his final season they ranked 3rd in terms of expected goals against and a pretty uninspiring 17th in terms of attacking xG. At Valencia things appear the same on the surface - the 4-4-2 is in use again - but the attack/defence split has been shaken up somewhat unexpectedly.

 

 

Functionally the attack is, again, closer to an Atléti than a Barca. Meaning that getting the ball forward with pace is the order of the day. They're just about middle of the pack in terms of possessions that are 10 or more passes in length. Conversely, they have the fourth highest percentage of their possessions leading to shots that are 15 seconds or shorter. This continues a trend from Mareclino's last season at Villarreal where they lead the league in this measure. However, in Valencia, the efficacy is greatly improved with them getting far more shots overall from these situations.

 

While the attack is clearly humming, a word of caution: it's perhaps running a tad too hot. They're over-shooting their expected goals numbers right now and come season's end may fall back behind Real Madrid to about 3rd or 4th in terms of goals scored (unless this bizarre Real Madrid finishing slump just continues in perpetuity). Simone Zaza - who has genuinely been quite good this season after a couple of odd detours in his career - is the one to point to here. Regardless, things are encouraging.

 

 

Defensively there a couple of slight causes for concern. The relatively high amount of shots they're giving up isn't necessarily a problem as long as the quality of said shots is as low as it has been (45% of their shots conceded are from outside the box, the 2nd highest percentage in the league). However, it is a bit easier to move the ball against them than Marcelino would probably ideally like. Opposition possessions are reaching Valencia's defensive third at the 5th highest rate in the league. On top of that they're not doing especially well at keeping opponents out of the most dangerous areas. The xG says don't stress it but it's worth keeping an eye on.

 

 

Marcelino's boys likely aren't, as the early results have suggested, on a level with Barca and Real Madrid. However, the signs do point towards them being the league's third best, even beyond an Atléti (more on them later). That is plenty impressive on its own.

Girona

Gironaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!...

...are the surprise package in La Liga this season. Prior to this campaign most probably knew them as the destination for a lot of Manchester City's loan army (about a third of Girona's squad are loanees, five of which are from City). That doesn't define them though, they're a hoot in their own right. The newly promoted club sit 9th in the table at this point of the season, and look just as good - if not a bit better - in the underlying indicators.

 

 

Manager Pablo Machín has them at a high level of defensive organisation all over the pitch. As you may have seen above, they allow one of the lower proportions of opposition completions in the final 18 yards, pointing towards a sturdy shape near to their own goal. They engage pretty high up the pitch too, forcing the 6th lowest completion percentage on passes originating in the opponent's defensive third along with the 4th lowest proportion of opposition possessions that are 'long' (10 or more passes). Put this all together and you see them keeping opponents out of their third at a super impressive rate.

 

 

On the other side of the ball there's two big defining stylistic points: 1) they've gotten the joint most goals from set pieces in the league (9) - a route of value you'll hear reiterated time and time again on this here website, especially for promoted teams - and 2) they love a headed shot, racking up the 2nd most of those, with the 2nd highest proportion of their completed passes into the opposition box coming via crosses. Other than that, there's no one regard in which their attack sticks out. They just do a little bit of everything. Long possessions per game? Middle of the pack. Counter-attacking situations? Solid there too. Shots from turnovers in opposition's third? They do them quite well. You get the gist.

Lots of players deserve praise here but the most eye-catching has been 20-year-old right-back Pablo Maffeo. The City loanee has shown real creativity going forward as a wing-back and generally just a nice all-round game, handling himself very well in marking assignments on bloody Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. Opponents complete their passes in his zone (the right side of Girona's defensive third) at the 3rd lowest rate in the league. He looks ready to slot in back at City, should Guardiola see fit to do so.

 

 

Someone might want to talk to him about the shots though. Oy vey.

 

 

Atlético Madrid

On the face of it there's little wrong with Atlético Madrid this season. They currently sit 2nd in the table, only having just suffered their first league loss of the campaign in the final match before the break. Everything hunky dory then? Well, peer below the surface and things start to look a tad iffy.

 

 

The defence is still looking about par but the attack has dropped off to a quite alarming extent. It's like Marcelino has sapped all the offensive capability out of Madrid and directly into his Valencia team.

41% of their shots came from outside the box last season, that’s up to a league-leading 47% this time around. The root of this appears to be in their transition game. Atléti's deep and compact defensive shape is the yin that require's a counter-attacking yang. Otherwise you're just defending all the time. Right now, they're struggling to get out.

 

 

On top of that, the shots they're getting from turnovers in the opposition's third is down by about half a shot per game. Possibly most troubling of all is that they've only managed 3 goals all season from set pieces, one of the worst tallies in the league. Something that was previously their bread and butter. All in it's a dual issue of both shot volume and quality. Even Antoine Griezmann, whose individual volume is about the same as last season on a per 90 basis, isn't producing a great deal.

 

 

They've certainly improved their passing game over the years, to the point where now they're about average in how many shots they squeeze out of possessions that last 10 passes or longer. That'd be A-OK if everything else were working normally but it just isn't. With the points banked already maybe it won't be such a big deal. Simeone's obviously a fantastic manager and he might potentially cure what ails them. And of course the impending return of Dastardly Diego Costa will be a boon. If it doesn't turn around though, and the results don't keep going their way, it could be an underwhelming first season in the new stadium. __________________

Thanks for reading. You can find me @EuanDewar for any questions or the like. Enjoy the rest of the season!

Ah yes, we've approached the silly season that is the January transfer window, where the rumors are hot and heavy. One of the most talked about names this time around has been Malcom, the audacious winger who has been scoring golazos left and right this season. I talked a little bit about Malcom in late September when Bordeaux started the league strong and looked like a potential surprise package in Ligue 1 this season. Since then, both he and his team have slowed up somewhat.

Despite those issues, Malcom has had a solid season on a flawed team. His non-penalty goals + assists rate is 0.61 per 90, and his shot contribution (shots + key passes) per 90 rate of 5.14 is good too, especially for a 20 year old wide player in his 2nd full season in European football. Compare that to other wide players not from PSG (cause you know, playing on a super team can distort your numbers if you’re good enough), and he stacks up relatively well.

• Memphis Depay: Minutes = 1295, NPG+A per 90= 0.83, Shot Contribution per 90= 5.07
• Lucas Ocampos: Minutes = 960, NPG+A per 90 = 0.66, Shot Contribution per 90 = 3.94
• Florian Thauvin: Minutes = 1606, NPG+A per 90 = 0.79, Shot Contribution per 90 = 6.61
• Thomas Lemar: Minutes = 1020, NPG+A per 90 = 0.53, Shot Contribution per 90 = 4.50
• Rony Lopes: Minutes = 1236, NPG+A per 90 = 0.44, Shot Contribution per 90 = 3.57
• Malcom: Minutes = 1472, NPG+A per 90 = 0.61, Shot Contribution per 90 = 5.14

Considering that every other player mentioned here is at least a year older, it makes sense not to talk about Malcom on the level of Kylian Mbappe or Ousmane Dembele, but perhaps the level below alongside the likes of Yannick Carrasco during his 14–15 season or Bernardo Silva. That still equates to a very tantalizing prospect.

So we know that Malcom has been quantitatively good this year, but what about qualitatively? What are his strengths and weaknesses as a player?

Strengths:

If I were a team that was scouting Malcom, I would look at this sequence and get a little excited.

 

The ability to effortlessly beat his opponent in a 1v1 situation, and having the coordination to hit a fairly difficult pass while at top speed is not commonly seen. And this isn’t just a one-off, there's evidence to suggest that Malcom does a pretty decent job at finding teammates with these type of passes, whether it be in transition or against a set defense.

Obviously, you’d have to construct a plan where this type of talent would be used for the good for the team, but having such a dynamic playmaker in transition with players making runs off the ball would be a fun sight. He also profiles as a potentially good crosser, with his ability to hit passes both to the back post and the near side. Considering how dominant he is with his left foot when it comes to shooting, supplementing that with crosses from either foot adds value too.

One other thing that's fun about Malcom is how he gets the ball from one zone on the pitch to another

 

 

It’s fair to wonder how much value this would hold on a better team because there would be less opportunities for this type of sequence to occur, but even if so, there’s enough evidence to suggest that Malcom is good at beating his opponent in 1v1 situations in higher positions.

 

It’s easy to see why so many people are enamored with Malcom. Speed demons who flash the ability to be high level playmakers don’t exactly grow on trees, and when harnessed in the correct manner, you can see how he would be a genuine asset.

Flaws:

With inverted wingers, you’re always running the chance that the added freedom to cut inside will result in shots being taken from ineffective areas. There will be times where taking a 3–4% shot is the best option because there’s not even an option to recycle the ball to a nearby teammate and keep probing for another shot. As much as one can loathe the idea of settling for bad shots, there is a level of sympathy to be had for situations where you got nothing else but to take a bad shot and hope for the best.

But when your xG/shot is in the single digits, that excuse runs thin. To put it frankly, Malcom has bad shot discipline. The only reason why it’s not been talked about more often is because he’s converted 15% of his shots from outside the penalty area (4/27). And while people remember the goals, the misses stack up too:

Again, this is a little bit of a two way street. Bordeaux aren’t great in terms of presenting options for a player in possession, and with the burden that’s placed on him in attack, It's understandable that he’s going to probably be on the low end of shot quality on average. However, he could stand to cut around ~0.5 shots per 90 and perhaps redistribute it to someone else or even just improve his own shot selection. He faces the same problem that plagued Adam Ounas during his days at Bordeaux, where you felt that he was leaving stuff on the table by settling for bad shots.

With being fairly left footed dominant when it comes to his shooting, there might be situations where he can be shaded into less advantageous areas on the pitch. That’s easier said than done because his speed is overwhelming, and even if that does happen, he’s shown to be able to deliver passes on his right foot. Also, as much fun as it is to see Malcom drop deep and tries to advance the ball by himself, one could question how much he’ll get to do it on a team that has something resembling structure. That level of freelancing isn’t all that prevalent, so it’d be curious to see how a soloist would adjust to those situation. Perhaps leveraging his speed into more off-ball runs into the penalty box.

And then there’s obviously the question of whether Malcom would be able to do his defensive duties at a more demanding level if given a lesser role in attack. Nobody knows if that’s the case, but it’s something to keep an eye out on.

Valuation Discussion

We’ve already gone through what he can and can’t do at his current state. He’s an exciting player but has flaws too, and it could very well be that his solid results are masking the actual problems in the process. Saying that though, it wasn't totally surprising to see that Bordeaux are asking for as much as £50M considering that he's their crown jewel and his contract doesn't end until 2021.

To some extent, there’s a comparison to be made with Sofiane Boufal when he was at Lille. Both were pass first wingers, with an excellent first step + dribbling abilities to go along with their questionable shot selection. They both had to do the bulk of creation on the team because no one else was good enough to help out in that department. And the statistical comparison sort of makes sense.

• Sofiane Boufal 2015–16: Minutes = 2351, NPG+A per 90 = 0.50, Shot Contribution per 90 = 4.67
• Malcom 2017–18: Minutes = 1472, NPG+A per 90 = 0.61, Shot Contribution per 90 = 5.14

The comparison isn't foolproof. Boufal was compared to Eden Hazard when he broke through because of the vague similarities in playing style and the way they moved on the pitch, while Malcom’s pure speed and athleticism is on a higher level to go along with his ability to get the ball from one zone to another. Also, as bad as Malcom's shot selection has been, Boufal’s was even worse back in the day. Add to it that Boufal was 22–23 when he had his full season at Lille, whereas Malcom isn’t turning 21 until February. Perhaps by this time in 2019, there have been incremental growths in his game and he's a better rounded player. Malcom’s season so far has been better than Boufal, and Boufal went for a base fee around £16M. That was also in a climate that was far less silly than what we have currently. If 2015–16 Boufal was in today’s market, even with Lille’s awful financial situation at the time, he could’ve fetched more than he did.

Given all the information already provided, along with Bordeaux not being the strongest financially as a club, I would feel somewhat comfortable paying in the region of £25M. I would probably begrudgingly accept paying up to £30M if that included add ons or an agreement to keep him in Ligue 1 until the end of the season. Anything appreciably above that, and I would start looking at other options. Malcom has some special gifts with the effortlessness he has in getting by his marker, the fact that he is a left footed shooter in attack makes him something of a rarity in European football. and he’s still young enough to teach the value of shot discipline before it’s too late (Memphis at Lyon is the poster child for shot selection reclamation). While I'd be hesitant to say that he’s a potential world beater, there’s reason to think that there's high upside and he's young enough to learn and improve.

Where would the best place be for him? The likes of Arsenal, Manchester United, and Tottenham have been linked over the past week or so. Arsenal do have potential openings with Sanchez/Ozil being 6 months away from leaving on frees, but he’s nowhere near the playmaker that Ozil is, nor the high usage inside forward that Sanchez has been. Manchester United need a creative type on the wing and just as you get yourself excited at the idea of Malcom joining the attacking talent already in place, you remind yourself that Jose Mourinho is their manager and all those good vibes drift away.

Tottenham would probably be the best place out of the three clubs. It’s not the cleanest fit, and a fully functional Tottenham means that he would be a rotation member rather than a starter over the next year or so, but he’s someone who would represent one of their better chances at finding a high upside attacking player without having to guarantee him starter minutes or wages that would unbalance their current structure. There’ll be some who look at the likes of Georges-Kévin Nkoudou and Clinton N’Jie and do a reflexive gag at the idea of buying another Ligue 1 attacker, but that train of thought doesn't hold much water in this case. There wasn’t anything to suggest that Nkoudou was more than a tricky dribbler at Marseille, and N’Jie was an inside forward/second striker having to masquerade as a wide player at the time. N’Jie was in some way’s a poor man’s Son Heung-Min, but that role wasn’t available. Even with the flaws in his game, there's more evidence to suggest that Malcom would fit in better than either of those two did at the time, with his profile as a dynamic playmaker.

Malcom has been a productive wide player, and there are certain things he can do that get you excited about his potential. He is incredibly quick and at best can leverage his gravity as a threat into finding teammates with dangerous passes. He also probably needs to be coached even harder about the value of shooting in better areas, and being more efficient as a player. While not the absolute top tier prospect that Ligue 1 has seen over the past few years, he’s in the discussion at the next level, and is definitely one of the more intriguing ones.