Author: Oliver Walker

Tales of the early season in the Championship

Posted on by Oliver Walker

The Championship, where time and narrative waits for no man. Those waiting for a larger sample of games to be played are just missing out on the good stuff, to be frank, as already we have a just-promoted side in the top two, a just-relegated side in the relegation zone, and a potential runaway train steered by El Loco. I’ll say it now so I don’t have to say it again: it’s six games, therefore these takes will be coming hot and without robust statistical significance. Though I probably will say it again later anyway.

Leeds

Y’know that Pep Guardiola guy? Back to back Premier League titles guy? The one who accrued the highest and second highest points tallies in Premier League history? Spent nine figures on full backs in a single summer that one time? Yeah, that guy. Well, on both occasions his Manchester City side won the title they did so with dominant expected goal differences that were standout above the rest of their rivals, translating to dominant title wins on the pitch. Leeds might just be about to do that to the Championship. By the vast majority of the performance metrics that we know translate best to projecting future performance, Leeds were the best side in the Championship last season – they had the joint best attack by expected goals and stood alone as having the best defence as well, based on the chances they created and conceded. This season, they’re looking even better. By a significant margin. The reason Man City have been mentioned is because Leeds’s numbers are well and truly in that realm, so let’s ignore the tiny sample and have fun projecting what the outcomes of this level of domination might look like if they keep it up for the remaining 40 league games. To really drive the level of dominance home, all things remaining equal and shots being converted as expected, Leeds would finish in and around the Championship points record – 106 by Reading in  2005-06 – and that’s _without_ any positive variance in their conversion rates. If their finishers and goalkeeper were to have a good season, then they’d likely smash it. Now with that ridiculous speculation out of the way (though yes, of course I will be sharing the link to this piece in May should they break the record), let’s zoom in a bit more. Bielsa’s boys have “beaten” their opponents on expected goals and in the shot count in each of their games so far and none of the opposition have really got close to them by those measures. They’ve outshot their opponents 106-43 but look closer and it gets kind of hilarious. In five of their six games, they’ve limited their opponents to seven (seven!) shots or less, with the apparent exception being Bristol City who managed 13. That is, except Bristol City are not actually an exception. Look a little closer into that game and Bristol City had managed four shots, two of which were direct free kicks, in the time that it took Leeds to race into a 3-0 lead, with the remaining nine being notched in the final 20 minutes from that point onwards. Of course, the West Yorkshire side have actually lost a game this season but put it this way, should they continue to play like this, I wouldn’t expect them to lose too many more this season.

Stoke

From the top, to the bottom. Languishing in 24th place is last season’s pre-season title favourites Stoke City who this time around were expected to make a much better fist of challenging for promotion than they managed in last season’s demoralising 16th place finish. This campaign, of course, under Nathan Jones who replaced Gary Rowett in the first week of January and whose ‘new manager bounce’ was more of a shrug as Stoke played their way into the summer by not conceding many goals but not scoring many either, recording a W2 D11 L2 return from their final 15 games to close the season out. With the second lump of parachute payments lobbed into their coffers and a well-regarded, young manager at the helm, this season’s haul of a single point after six games has threatened to derail their promotion charge whilst August is still clearly visible in the rear-view mirror. There are two ways to look at the current predicament Stoke find themselves in, a classic “two things can be true” StatsBomb special. The first is a perfectly valid point that Stoke are the victims of  repeated poor goalkeeping errors from Jack Butland and also of just bad variance in that their opponents have finished chances pretty well otherwise, by expected goals, Stoke would be expected to most often concede around six or seven goals based on the chances they’ve conceded so far, but the post-shot model, taking into account shot placement, bumps this up to around 11. If we imagine for a second that the Potters’ opponents hadn’t finished their chances as well as they have done and that Adam Federici had started the season in goal rather than Butland, then it doesn’t take a massive leap in the mind’s eye to consider that Stoke very likely wouldn’t have conceded as many and would therefore have a few more points on the board. Which brings us onto the other true thing of the two true things. Even if Stoke had a few more points, are they really performing to a standard that would suggest they’re actually fine? The answer really depends on your expectations of what they should be achieving this season. Some believe, given their resources and recent Premier League status, that the minimum expectation should be a promotion challenge of some kind, at the very least in the play-off picture. More generous observers take a longer term view, able to justify a failed play off push if there is enough tangible improvement in a team that has seen large player turnover and whose playing philosophy is being dragged in yet another new direction by the guidance of a new coach, with a strong promotion push coming the season after. By the first point of view, Stoke are falling short so far and by the second, well, there hasn’t been much encouragement so far (blue line indicates the start of Jones’s tenure). What Jones will be cursing is that this vexatious run will have cost him time and patience, two things he may need to complete the turnaround.

Charlton

League One play-off winners Charlton are worth touching on, having done their survival chances the world of good by taking 14 points from the opening 18 available. What’s powered that is some freaky stuff, but that’s what them small samples can do to ya. To benchmark the following, consider that Charlton have W4-D2-L0, scoring nine non-penalty goals and conceding five. Now consider that they’ve taken 47 shots and conceded 99. Bit of a discrepancy there, but naturally the quality of those shots matters though and Charlton do actually lead the league in creating the highest quality of chance on average (xG per shot), with very little wastage on their shot map. It’s another reminder of the impact a good or bad start can have on framing the rest of the season. Before a ball had been kicked, Charlton were one of the relegation favourites and survival would’ve been a celebrated achievement. Now, pick up points at the rate that was initially expected of them and they probably finish in the top half.

An update on the relegated

A real mix of results so far for the three outfits freshly ejected from the top tier. Fulham have settled well, with Scott Parker taking a leaf out of the 2017-18 promoted Fulham side by employing a similar shape and set of principles; looking to dominate possession and maximise the skillset of midfield conductor Tom Cairney. Currently sat in sixth and with a healthy looking +0.45 expected goal difference per game (4th best at this early stage), there’s little reason to throw any doubt on a potential immediate top flight return at this point. Really though you’re all just here to see the pass map from their 4-0 win over Millwall in which they broke records for the amount of possession they had, aren’t you. Cardiff have been a little more lukewarm but through six games appear on the positive side of their expected goal difference at least, so whilst better results would’ve offered more encouragement, there appears to be a foundation for Warnock to build on. That said, deserved away defeats at Reading and Wigan, both of which were poor defensive performances, have understandably dampened supporters’ enthusiasm. And then we come to Huddersfield, who’d had enough of Jan Siewert three games into the campaign, no less, and who accompany Stoke at the bottom of the table, also on one point through six games. In come Danny & Nicky Cowley from Lincoln City to replace the departed Siewert. The Cowley brothers are on the back of achieving two promotions in three seasons at Lincoln and in turn have been developing a strong reputation further down the league pyramid. In the short term, their remit is eight letters and three words: Win. A. Game. Terriers fans have celebrated precisely one league win since November last year and Sunderland fans will tell you what can happen if you don’t arrest a run like that quickly in this division. And that’s you up to speed with the early headlines from England’s second tier. It promises to be another frantic one.

Aston Villa: 2019-20 Season Preview

Posted on by Oliver Walker

It’s somewhat remarkable that Aston Villa actually find themselves a Premier League side again given the questionable management at board and pitch level that led not only to their relegation in 2015-16 but also prevented them from achieving promotion back to the top tier before now. Former Chairman Dr. Tony Xia was clearly eager to please the fanbase upon taking control of the club in 2016 but the strategy was rather boom or bust and a bottom-half finish in their return to the second tier was a stuttering start to say the least. That was followed by a play-off charge under the guidance of seemingly-always-in-a-job Steve Bruce, but any hopes among the fanbase of going one further in the following campaign were soon replaced by alarm as a missed tax payment and alleged cash flow issues lead to the club requiring investment, ultimately leading to Xia selling his majority stake in the club in the summer of 2018. These are hardly the foundations upon which promotion campaigns are typically built and so it first appeared when Bruce was struggling to get a tune out of an increasingly rickety-looking team, infamously nearly taking a cabbage to the face as a consequence (“Steve Bruce cabbage” is still the third most popular result under his name in Google). With an expensive squad performing more like a bog-standard average Championship side, a run of one win in nine games led to his October departure with Villa in 12th. And so along came Dean Smith. Poached from Brentford, many a neutral’s second team for their attacking football and youthful makeup, Smith found the call from his boyhood supported club too good to turn down. We all know how it ended now of course, but it took Smith a little while to get things right – a run of three wins in sixteen games from the New Year left Villa in 11th place, eight points behind the play off places and with just twelve games to go. But boy did he then get it right. The upturn experienced in their metrics is clearly visible and led to an unlikely club record ten game winning run to propel them into fifth place, a run which perhaps more crucially gave them that all-important MOMENTUM heading into the play off campaign which, of course, they won by defeating the team formerly known as Frank Lampard’s Derby County.

Tactics

Naturally Smith made changes to Villa’s general approach to games, the most notable being that the team would start to attack with more numbers rather than the risk-averse approach preferred by Bruce which saw few bodies get forward and attack the penalty area. Smith came with a reputation for playing attacking, passing football and he also implemented that at Villa Park in a 4-1-4-1 shape spearheaded by Tammy Abraham and patrolled centrally by John McGinn and Jack Grealish, but a key difference was that their approach in the final third largely looked to move the ball out wide to play crosses into the box - a strategy which goes against Smith’s reputation somewhat. Their Box Cross % - the percentage of box entries that came via a cross as opposed to a pass or dribble – was the highest in the Championship under Smith. When looking for individuals who helped the team become successful you don’t have to look any further than player of the year John McGinn. Fizzing around the midfield like a tartan firework, McGinn was the only player to breach the 4000’ minutes threshold and was key on both sides of the ball. In the defensive phase he was Villa’s most aggressive presser, leading his teammates in pressures and pressure regains as well as good old-fashioned tackles, but he was also key in driving his team up the pitch and into the final third. A summer rumour that was quickly filed under ‘pretty amusing that actually made it to print’ was of Manchester United’s apparent interest in bringing McGinn to Old Trafford for £50million. However, none other than Sir Alex Ferguson is apparently a big admirer of the Scotland midfielder so maybe we should readjust our estimations a level down from ‘pretty amusing that actually made it to print’ to ‘quite ridiculous’. Besides McGinn, Tammy Abraham was crucial to Villa’s success and once again displayed - as if more proof was needed - that he is too good for the Championship. Villa were pretty reliant on the striker’s 26 goals to put them into promotion contention and replacing his output will be a tough ask, as you can see from the breakdown of Villa’s xG amongst last season’s squad.

Transfers

It’s only right we save a large portion of this preview for Villa’s transfer activity though, having attracted many headlines, comparisons and judgements in recent weeks (listeners of the StatsBomb podcast over the summer will know that James Yorke and Ted Knutson have been… let’s go with unenthused). Regardless of the opinion on whether the deals have been good value or not, there’s no denying that what Villa have attempted is pretty interesting in that they’ve clearly been looking in several markets in their attempts to extract value. Making loan spells permanent to stay at the club were centre backs Tyrone Mings and Kourtney Hause, as well as winger Anwar El Ghazi. Domestically, Villa convinced creator Jota to move from neighbours Birmingham City, promising centre back Ezri Konsa showed enough at Brentford to be picked up, whilst Matt Targett joined from Southampton to defend the left flank at Villa Park. Tom Heaton graduates from the Burnley superschool of goalkeeping to keep goal in what looks a shrewd purchase if he can replicate the form that earned him an England recall. It’s their business on the continent that’s drawn the most interest though. Now, last time Villa brought in a curious raft of players from European leagues, Tim Sherwood was in charge. It’s fair to assume that, having worked successfully under a similar model at Brentford, Dean Smith might be more enthusiastic about working with these types of purchase than Sherwood was so they should already have more chance of succeeding than they did then. Let’s start with Wesley Moraes, a £22million capture from Club Brugge. Straight off the bat, the Wesley transfer has more than a few hints of “find a Tammy Abraham that is attainable and won’t cost £40 million (if not more)”. All 6’4 of Wesley will go straight into the vacated lone striker role, tasked with being the centrepiece around which Villa’s attack is built. He does like to come deep and bring play together so in order to succeed in Villa’s system he may have to be coached into making sure he’s regularly between the width of the posts 6-10 yards out to capitalise on the regular supply line of crosses. Interestingly, Ted was pretty interested in Wesley a couple of summers back after he put up some interesting numbers aged 20 in the Belgian top tier but a couple of years on, the take is less warm largely because that output hasn’t sustained. https://twitter.com/StatsBomb/status/1141758517411483648 So that’s the void of Tammy Abraham filled. With the experienced Glenn Whelan departing and set-piece specialist Conor Hourihane better suited to competing with McGinn and Grealish in the box-to-box role, Villa were in need of a defensive shield to sit in front of their back four. Initially linked with Leeds’ Kalvin Phillips, the £30million price tag was deemed too steep so acquiring Douglas Luiz (from Man City) and Wesley’s former teammate Marvelous Nakamba (Club Brugge) for a combined package of less than the Phillips price tag has obvious logic to it. Douglas in particular looks like he could have potential to be an impressive pickup on the mere basis that he was rated by the expert and far-reaching scouting operation at City Football Group, but neither are without their risks with both suffering injuries in recent seasons. The last one of curiosity is Trezeguet. I’ve seen a lot of people throwing doubt over the success of imports from the top tier of Turkey - these people have seemingly already forgotten the success of Ryan Babel just six months ago. Ok, I jest. There are legitimate questions marks due to the lack of transfers coming in from Turkey that have worked out in recent years. It may be a good league to send your unwanted players due to their ability to cover high wages, but is it a good place to go and pick up a brand-new winger from? Well there are reasons to be sort-of positive. Firstly, the reported £8.75million fee isn’t huge in the context of the riches now available to Premier League clubs, there are players coming out of the Championship that are costing more than twice that after all. With it being towards the lower end of transfer fee we expect from Premier League clubs these days and with Villa’s continued and persistent interest in Brentford’s Saïd Benrahma, it suggests Trezeguet may not be an automatic starter and his penchant for staying high and wide in Kasımpaşa’s system would make him a good candidate to be most effective as a game-chasing sub, even more so with him being a ‘high usage’ type of player, consistently looking to deliver crosses or get shots off when on the ball. Scoring three and five goals from outside the box in his last two seasons in Turkey respectively, as noted by James on the podcast, chipping in with a couple of those and a couple of assists in the minutes he does get would be a welcome contribution to Villa’s survival bid.

Projecting Forward

Like their fellow promoted sides, avoiding relegation is objective number one and would represent a commendable achievement. Unlike their fellow promoted sides, however, Smith’s tenure at Villa is still in its infancy and as a result they do not yet have the benefit of an established culture and philosophy that Sheffield United and Norwich have instilled. Villa will have to undergo further transition towards their manager’s ideals whilst adapting to the Premier League which arguably marks them as the least equipped of the promoted sides. Quite how Villa go this season does actually depend a lot on how good their new signings turn out to be. Worst case scenario they’re left with a squad that they’ve spent a not-insignificant amount of money on for no discernible improvement and a swift relegation would very likely follow. Best case, a lot of their signings settle straight in and prove to be significant upgrades and more suited to Smith’s football than those they’re replacing, becoming reasonable Premier League level contributors and helping Villa, in this scenario, to a potential-or-even-probable survival. Villa will have to hope they roll big if they’re to be contented in May.   Header image courtesy of the Press Association

Sheffield United: 2019-20 Season Preview

Posted on by Oliver Walker

A season of overachieving resources and confounding stereotypes was the story of Sheffield United’s promotion campaign. Hailing from the Steel City, the Blades’ success was more about their swagger than it was about the grit you might expect of their industrial roots. With an English manager in Chris Wilder, their play was more about intelligence and invention than it was about getting the basics right. The players, every single one of them of British or Irish nationality, played with verve and executed a style of play far more courageous than just knocking the ball into the channels. It’s exciting to see boyhood-blade Wilder get the chance to manage at the top level having unquestionably been the most successful manager of the EFL divisions in recent years. A sterling record of three promotions in four seasons starting with a League Two title at Northampton in 2015-16, followed by a League One title in his first season at Sheffield United in 2016-17 and, after falling short of the Championship play-offs in 2017-18, concluded with a 2nd place finish and promotion to the Premier League in 2018-19. It should also be said that only the League One side had a budget that suggested promotion would be the expectation. This is a man who took a Sheffield United side, heading nowhere fast, from League One to the Premier League in the space of three years. The success he’s brought and the style in which they’ve achieved it has not gone unnoticed by the educated eyes within the game either. When one of the most studied coaches of all time says this about you, you’re probably doing something right.  “… the Sheffield United head coach is someone with new ideas and I have seen very few people with these ideas,” Marcelo Bielsa there.

Style & Build Up

Covering for the side’s lack of raw pace, the 3-4-1-2 was designed to create and maintain pressure on the opposition and a couple of the methods used to keep the game in the opposition half as much as possible are quite eye catching. First, the use of center backs as an extra attacker in possession. This was a regular occurrence and United’s most obvious form of overloading the opposition because of course a wing back, ball-side central midfielder and #10 combining to try and play through the defensive block just isn’t enough bodies. It really does have to be seen to be believed and with the likelihood that a more conservative style may be adopted in the top tier, we should take a moment to appreciate it whilst we can. The numerical overloads created by this strategy have clear advantages in the attacking phase but they also served a key purpose in the defensive transition too, where United would look to immediately press should they lose the ball in the final third with the high number of players already around the ball making it an obvious strategy. You can see from their defensive activity map that, compared to the league average, the Blades were very active defenders high and wide up the pitch with the sheer numbers they’d often have in these areas a large reason why. With Wilder’s system requiring a lot of positional and tactical intelligence from the players, one player excelled as the pivot and proverbial heartbeat of this Sheffield United side – Oliver Norwood. Securing his third straight promotion from the Championship (Brighton 16-17, Fulham 17-18), Norwood’s passing range and technique was crucial in stretching opponents and maintaining the pressure and momentum that Wilder cited as objective number one of his style of play. His passing sonar below highlights the range and frequency with which Norwood would spread the play. Not just captivating to watch though, their football was evidently highly successful. Statistically their approach throws up some really interesting trends when it comes to the chances they’d create and also the chances they concede, with wonderful symmetry at both ends. As you saw from the clip above, Sheffield United excelled at creating clear cut chances close to goal with the evergreen Billy Sharp often the main beneficiary, poaching most of his 22 non-penalty goals at the ripe old age of 33. The pressure created around the opponent’s goal and desire to get opportunities in the six -yard box is highlighted by the fact they led the Championship in the xG per shot and passes completed inside the box metrics, whilst they were 2nd in the league for the average shot distance they’d pull the trigger from. It was a similar story at the back, where the Blades ranked best in the league in xG per shot conceded and the average distance from goal of the shots they conceded was also furthest in the league.  They were well drilled and effective in open play but their innovation at set plays, already written about previously, was a big factor in getting them over the line. The Blades were actually quite quiet on this front in the first two-thirds of the campaign, jostling themselves into the promotion picture on the back of their open play prowess with just six set play goals in the first 29 games (a rate of 0.20 per game) up to February 1st. From that date onwards though, they relied more on their set play invention to decide games in their favour with their set-play goals per game rate shooting up to 0.58 in the final 17 fixtures for a total of ten goals. Their strength and know-how in this phase of play could well be a tipping point in their avoiding relegation or not.

Transfers and Incomings

Despite promotion, Wilder is curiously still yet to delve into the foreign market to strengthen his side, preferring instead to pluck some of the better young performers from the Championship and other, predominantly British players who share a similar ravenous hunger possessed by his current squad to prove themselves in the Premier League. Though United aren’t expected to adopt an ultra-defensive philosophy, it’s clear they won’t be able to play the game as high up the pitch as they did against their 18-19 divisional rivals against much stronger opponents and it’s telling that most of their incomings so far have been in attacking areas, with homecoming Phil Jagielka the only defensive reinforcement at the time of writing. Acquiring a couple of “something out of nothing” players was high on Wilder’s shopping list for this transfer window and in Ravel Morrison and Callum Robinson they have two players that fit that bill. Morrison’s journey around the footballing globe and the possible reasons behind that have been well documented, but if Sheffield United can unlock the generational talent he possessed when coming through the Manchester United ranks, he could well make a positive difference in the same way he did before his sour departure from West Ham. In Robinson, the Blades have acquired one of the Championship’s better wide forwards and a player who adds not only pace but also the ability to create shots for himself and others off the dribble - something that simply didn’t exist in Sheffield United’s squad last season, though, in fairness, it wasn’t really required then. A more counterattacking and direct option is something that will solve a lot of problems the Blades are likely to encounter this season though and Robinson’s contribution in speeding up those attacking transitions, likely as a withdrawn forward in the 3-4-1-2, could be vital. Frenchman Lys Mousset is another who adds mobility to their front line and, at 23, crucially brings the average age of United’s attacking options down with their key attacking contributors last season – Billy Sharp (33 years old), David McGoldrick (31) and Mark Duffy (33) – all on the gentle decline of the age curve. Mousset’s motivations for joining the Blades are clear and twofold: to gloat about his European passport post-Brexit and to escape the substitutes bench, from which no fewer than 50 of his 58 Premier League appearances came. With only a select sample of minutes to draw firm conclusions from, this is a deal, like Ravel Morrison, made for the potential upside rather than any low-risk guaranteed contribution. And the upside is definitely there. Prior to his Bournemouth move in 2016 Mousset had just scored 14 goals for Le Havre in Ligue 2 and contributed to France U23’s run to the final of the Toulon tournament, attracting interest from some of the Premier League’s bigger names. Dean Henderson has signed on to keep goal in South Yorkshire for another year following a successful loan from Manchester United last season, whilst Ben Osborn and Luke Freeman have shown ability at Championship level and add versatility and depth to the squad.

Going Down With A Fight?

Going into this season it goes without saying that some adaptation to their cavalier methods will be required, with Wilder himself acknowledging that need, but even that may not be enough to save United from the drop. However, Wilder might model his approach on Eddie Howe and the way his Bournemouth side went about securing promotion to the Premier League and sticking to their expansive principles once there, suggesting perhaps those adaptations needn’t be as cautious as one might predict. That would certainly fit with Wilder’s character as a man not shy of puffing his chest out and forcing others to sit up and take notice. Make no mistake, this team will relish the prospect of turning up and spoiling the party for anyone who underestimates them. His legendary status at Bramall Lane also helps in this regard with his job secure even in the event of relegation and the freedom attached to having nothing to lose will very much aid their approach. The finer details may change, but don’t be surprised to see the unsuspected innovators innovate again.   Header image courtesy of the Press Association

League One Playoff Preview

Posted on by Oliver Walker

The annual four-way royal rumble promotion-deciding showdowns are here, kicking off this Saturday with 12 semi-finals across the three EFL divisions packed into nine days back to back. The stakes are high, the football is daily.

The League One contest will be typically tight: Charlton Athletic, Portsmouth and Sunderland are all given a near-identical chance of going up by the bookmakers, with Doncaster Rovers given an outside chance. Who’s going to do it? Nobody knows, but there’s a case to be made for and against each side.

Charlton Athletic

Despite finishing 3rd in the table, Charlton weren’t ever considered a serious challenger to the top two - their final position was actually the highest position they’d occupied at any point earlier in the season after a return of 32 points from their last 13 matches propelled them above Portsmouth and Sunderland.

This is Charlton’s second successive play off campaign and manager Lee Bowyer, a Champions League semi finalist in his playing career, has the Addicks in red hot form going into the season extension despite losing key forward Karlan Grant to Premier League Huddersfield in January.

How will they setup?

 

 

An increasingly popular shape, Charlton’s 4-4-2 diamond leans heavily on the quality of their midfield and their recent strong form correlates with their first-choice players in this department getting fit and available at the same time.

Out of possession Charlton won’t look to press high, instead using the system’s numerical advantage through the middle to force their opponents wide before squeezing them against the touchline.

 

 

The numbers and quality they have in midfield allow them to play through the thirds in build up whilst up front Taylor and Vetokele are both willing runners, pulling wide and working the channels to allow their team to gain entry into the attacking third.

Strengths

Have I mentioned their midfield? Krystian Bielik and Josh Cullen are Premier League loanees from Arsenal and West Ham respectively, Joe Aribo has been strongly linked with Arsenal, RB Leipzig, and Benfica in recent months, whilst Jonny Willams is playing at a level lower than he ever has done, with 12 Premier League and 100+ Championship appearances to his name prior to this season. All are perfectly suited to the system, all are likely to play the majority of their future careers at a higher level.

It’s also worth noting Charlton’s hugely impressive record against their fellow top six sides: P10 W5 D3 L2 - putting them top of the ‘mini-league’ of matches played between the top six teams.

Weaknesses

Zooming in on their underlying numbers, Charlton don’t really stand out as a team that should be strongly favoured for promotion. Their expected goal difference through the season has been solid, good even, but never in the sort of echelons to match their hugely impressive results.

 

 

They could be doing something that's not picked up by expected goals as their season long expected goal difference per game stands at just 0.15. One theory is that their habit of winning penalties, a league-leading 15(!) penalties across the season whilst conceding just 5, with 12 and 4 respectively being converted, could mean that Charlton have simply not been pushing to create as much from open play due to already being ahead from the penalty spot.

One(s) to Watch

Lyle Taylor is the outstanding goal threat with 21 goals, Naby Sarr has been very effective at building the play from centre-half this season, but it really is the midfield that will give Charlton the best chance of success. Picking just one is tricky, but Joe Aribo, probably playing his last games in a Charlton shirt, excels at everything required of him from the wide midfield role: breaking the play up, carrying the ball through midfield, whilst also contributing 9 goals in attack. Besides Taylor, he’s the most likely match-winner.

 

 

Portsmouth

Title challengers until matchday 45, Portsmouth will be led into the play offs by one of the most experienced and respected coaches at this level. Kenny Jackett has accumulated more years and matches in management than his three direct competitors combined and has real pedigree at this level, having previously led Millwall to play off success in 2010 before breaking the League One points record in 2014 with Wolves. It’s been no surprise that his Portsmouth side have been title contenders up to now.

How will they setup?

 

 

Jackett’s 4-2-3-1 makes up in substance what it may lack in style. Their mid-to-low block gives a stable base to play off, geared towards controlling the middle of the park and dominating their defensive third.

 

 

The bulk of the attacking work is left to the front four with the wide players particularly dangerous and one of the central midfielders, namely Ben Close, given license to bomb on and provide a goal-threat from deep.

Strengths

Their underlying numbers are good on both sides of the ball. Defensively they’ve conceded an average of 0.96 xG per match across the season – the third best record in League One – whilst in attack their 1.34 expected goals created per game is again up there with the best, ranking fourth best.

They’re one of the strongest sides in the division on set plays with a goal difference of +7 on goals from corners and indirect free-kicks; scoring 15 and conceding 8. Regular readers in this parish will know all about how important this can be and all 3 goals in last season’s play-off final were scored from set play situations.

 

 

Weaknesses

Their recent defensive record. Yes, they look good in terms of their underlying numbers but actual, good old-fashioned clean sheets are hard to come by on the south coast. Three clean sheets in the last 26 league games tells its own story and suggests that despite being generally quite dominant defensively, there’s a soft underbelly to this side that can be, and has been, penetrated on a regular basis.

They also don’t boast a particularly strong record in the top six mini-league. P10 W2 D5 L3, with their two wins coming rather fortuitously at home to Luton on the opening day and at home to Sunderland who were down to 10 men.

One(s) to Watch

Matt Clarke is a dominant centre-half who’s future lies at a higher level. Ronan Curtis has contributed 12 goals and eight assists from the left wing. Potent forward Brett Pitman has adapted well to a deeper role behind the main striker. Jamal Lowe on the right wing has finished the season especially strongly though and will take some stopping, having already scored at Wembley this season in Portsmouth’s EFL Trophy win over Sunderland.

 

 

Sunderland

Like Portsmouth, Sunderland had sustained a title challenge until the very late stages of the season, occupying second place as recently as matchday 42. Manager Jack Ross has just about hit par in his first season, failing to sustain that title challenge but some slack should be cut considering the serial failure surrounding Sunderland in recent years. Daniel Farke couldn’t even manage a top-half finish in his first season with Norwich – look at what they’ve achieved now after giving him time.

How will they setup?

 

 

For a time they dabbled with a 4-4-2 shape in order to accommodate £4 million January deadline day signing Will Grigg in the side but that move was quickly abandoned with their midfield too exposed so expect Sunderland to deploy their most commonly utilised 4-2-3-1.

League One Team Of The Season member Aiden McGeady is unsurprisingly Sunderland’s main attacking outlet, expect their most dangerous attacking moves to come down the left.

Strengths

The narrative around Sunderland is of a side that has never really ‘clicked’ this season and that still doesn’t know what it’s best XI is. Those things are probably more true than not and yet Sunderland still managed to score in 45 of 46 league games this season, a record certainly not to be sniffed at. They also lost the fewest games, five, with two of those coming in their last two games when Ross rested key players with little to play for.

They have a very respectable record in the top six mini-league: P10 W4 D5 L1 – the loss coming when down to ten men vs Portsmouth.

Lastly, we can’t talk about Sunderland without mentioning expected goals. Having been a major outlier in the expected goals table earlier in the season for massively overperforming their numbers, they’ve actually improved in the latter part of the season and are now posting the kind of underlying numbers you’d expect of a promotion contender. Because this is Sunderland though, obviously this has coincided with arguably their worst form of the season.

 

 

Weaknesses

Whilst they boast the fewest defeats in the league, they also claimed the most draws and it’s their inability to pull away from teams that has cost them an automatic spot.

Of major concern is the starting XI though and the aforementioned cliché of the manager ‘not knowing his best team’. It may be true, but Ross hasn’t been helped by virtually all of his centre halves being out of form at the business end of the season. The 5-4 home defeat to Coventry in early April prompted both regular centre halves to be dropped with Alim Ozturk recalled to the side for his first appearance since December, keeping his place since. It’s not ideal preparation.

One(s) to Watch

Bryan Oviedo and Aiden McGeady were both seasoned Premier League performers before Sunderland’s rapid descent to the third tier and the drop in class has certainly shown. The vast majority of Sunderland’s best moments come down their left flank and the pair compliment each other well with McGeady often coming inside on the ball, allowing Oviedo to attack the space out wide. Whether this ultra-attacking combination pays off in the knife-edge scenario of these play off games is another question.

 

 

Doncaster Rovers

Sixth placed Doncaster only confirmed their entry to the play offs with victory on the last day despite being in a position to wrap it up much sooner. A return of W5-D5-L5 from their last fifteen games paints an image of a side out of form and that is certainly true, but it also coincided with injuries to key players who, thankfully for Donny, have made their return in time to feature in the extended season.

How will they setup?

 

 

Doncaster are a free-flowing, attacking side with the players given licence to interchange and get into offensive areas of the pitch. The strategy has paid off with a return of 76 goals, fifth best in the league, but also left them exposed defensively as they gave up 58, ranking them the 11th best defence.

It’s entertaining stuff and the players have spoken about how McCann has tried to instil the positive philosophy into his players, with even giving the ball away framed as a positive as it gives them the chance to immediately go and win the ball back.

Strengths

Their attacking play. At their best, Doncaster are one of the best attacking units in the league and if they can get close to that level then they’re capable of scoring against anyone. They’ve unfortunately been far from their best in recent weeks with their current performance level in a real trough compared to the rest of their season, though they have had to do without influential midfielders Ben Whiteman and Herbie Kane through injury. Both have returned in time for the play offs.

 

 

Weaknesses

Doncaster have one very obvious weakness their opponents should look to exploit and that is their inability to defend set plays, conceding 21 goals from these situations – meaning one in three goals Doncaster concede is from a set play.

 

 

The top six mini-league doesn’t bode well for Donny either, where they place sixth out of six. Their return of P10 W1 D5 L4 suggests that Doncaster could well just be proverbial flat-track bullies who get found out against the better sides. Even their best asset, their goalscoring, has fallen flat against the good sides; finding the net just five times in those ten matches.

One(s) to Watch

John Marquis is the main man for Doncaster and was spoken about in the last piece I wrote for Statsbomb. A complete forward at this level; working hard out of possession whilst creating and converting chances in possession. Ben Whiteman dictates play from deep, Mallik Wilks has supported Marquis well in the goals department, but it’s Herbie Kane who’ll steal the show if he plays to his best.

It's been a very successful season from the Liverpool loanee, he’s shown his potential time and time again. His form dropped slightly in the new year after playing through injury but a spell out of the side to fully recuperate looks to have done the job. As good a midfielder as you’ll get in League One.

 

 

Charlton vs Doncaster provide the first match up, one that Charlton are backed to come through. The other will be contested by the two EFL Trophy finalists, Portsmouth vs Sunderland, who could only be separated by penalties then with a similarly tight encounter a likely repeat. Four will enter, only one will leave. The prize of the Championship awaits the victor.

League One Review: The Championship Awaits, But For Who?

Posted on by Oliver Walker

Not a season goes by without the words “Premier League” and “Best League In The World” being uttered in the same sentence.

The statement does, of course, have some merit and, in terms of the quality of playing and management personnel, it’s probably true. However, look below it and you’ll find stalwarts of the EFL leagues who know that it’s rarely the most entertaining nor even the most competitive league in England, let alone the rest of the world.

This season, League One has made a strong claim to be the most compelling with a heated title and automatic promotion race and a relegation battle that at the time of writing involves pretty much the entire bottom half with just a third of the season remaining.

At the summit, there’s three places up for grabs in next season’s Championship table and as we now enter the home straight, it’s the perfect time to put the Championship elect under the microscope and see what they’re doing right – or wrong – in their attempts to ascend into the second tier.

Doncaster:

If the season started from scratch, Doncaster would be much more favoured for a top two finish than they currently are now.

Thanks to a run of poor form pre-Christmas, Donny fell out of the top six but a recent revival has seen them angle their way back in and it’d be a major surprise if they were to fall away now. Their expected goal difference of 0.41 goals per game across the season is actually the fourth best in the league up to now and comfortably so. Doncaster will be a force in the playoffs and could even be the team to fear going into them with their press looking more restrictive than ever.

 

 

Developing the press has been a process and in fact defensive solidity has, up until recently, been Doncaster’s weakness  – they’ve kept just eight clean sheets all season. Their expected goals conceded has been gradually trending downward however, a sign that the team could be starting to play to their full potential with manager Grant McCann still only in the job for eight months.

Given their early defensive struggles, it sure helped to have a striker who’s one of the best around at this level. In John Marquis they have a forward who’s comfortably the team’s biggest goal threat, but who also creates chances for others and even defends from the front as well.

 

Charlton:

Currently in 5th you have Charlton. In context, they’ve had a very impressive season so far after a cruel run of medium-term injuries to key players meant several academy players had to start games and there’s even been occasions where they’ve been unable to name a full subs bench.

Sadly though, their valiant run could be tailing off just as their injury problems ease. The break up of their 26-goal forward duo seems to be the main cause as Karlan Grant left strike partner Lyle Taylor and departed for the Premier League, sealing a cheap-looking £2million January move to Huddersfield.

A recent three game spell immediately after Grant had left the club and whilst Taylor was serving a suspension highlighted the lack of depth Charlton have up front, with the team now looking overly reliant on Taylor to carry the goal burden he previously shared with Grant.

 

 

Charlton were already wringing every last point from their 0.14 expected goal difference per game, just about enough to put them in the “playoff contender” category in underlying numbers terms, but with Grant not being adequately replaced - Josh Parker arrived from relegation candidates Gillingham on a short-term deal - it’s fair to say Charlton won’t be the favourites heading into the playoffs if they hold onto their top six place.

Portsmouth:

At one stage, Portsmouth were comfortably champions elect after a stratospheric W14 D5 L1 record to open the season that took them six points clear at the top.

Portsmouth did (and do) actually have positive underlying numbers though and whilst a points return of that scale was always unlikely to be sustained, the drop off in the 14 games since has been unsettling for the neutral and outright horrifying for the fans, picking up just 15 points in that spell.

Having conceded just 15 goals in their hot start, goalkeeper Craig MacGillivray played a big part in their push to the top of the table. StatsBomb’s post-shot expected goals model believes he saved close to five goals more than Portsmouth were expected to concede from the shots their opponents were taking.

 

 

Unfortunately, he couldn’t sustain that form. In the 14 games where Portsmouth’s results have been more akin to that of a relegation struggler, MacGillivray has also been struggling and has now been saving below expectation.

 

 

Of course, it’s not all MacGillivray’s fault and in recent games there’s been a clearly visible decline in Portsmouth’s attacking output too.

 

 

With the top two looking increasingly out of reach, Portsmouth need to get their act together if they’re to recover their early season form and remain a serious contender for promotion.

Sunderland:

Recently of Match of the Day fame but nowadays seen on Netflix, Sunderland initially took very well to League One and they have some impressive performance indicators to back it up. The team has lost just two games so far and are also the only team to have scored in every single league game this season.

Trouble is, there are also some performance indicators that aren’t as impressive.

In the first 20 games of the season, Sunderland wildly overperformed their expected goals in attack, scoring at nearly double the rate they were expected to. While that made fans understandably chipper about their prospects of an instant return to the second tier, it also foreshadowed the problems that followed.

 

 

Since then, the Black Cats luck ran out, and they were recently on a barmy run of scoring exactly one goal in ten consecutive league games, a run that included six 1-1 draws and was only ended by a 2-2 draw.

As you can see below, performances haven’t necessarily gotten worse, it’s just that they’ve started scoring to expectation.

 

 

In truth, Sunderland hadn’t been playing like a side capable of automatic promotion all season but their last four games have all of a sudden seen them create a lot more chances than we’ve seen from them previously, ironically seeing them fail to get wins that they probably deserved.

For now, the Black Cats claws cling onto Barnsley’s coat tails. Who knows, maybe these shot maps will make it into Sunderland Till I Die Season Two...

Barnsley:

Occupying the first of two automatic promotion places, Barnsley look well set to return to the Championship at the first attempt. New boss Daniel Stendel has impressed since being imported from Germany, successfully implementing the counter-pressing style of play he promised when appointed.

 

 

To great effect too. By StatsBomb’s numbers, Barnsley are actually the best side in the league by expected goal difference and their brief stint outside of the play off places was followed up by a return of 31 points from the next 39 available.

And all this without an experienced head. Someone who’s been there and done that. This is a side that hasn’t given a single minute of football to a player over 26 years of age this campaign.

 

 

Some may call it a smart strategy given what we know about the peak performance window in footballers, others may call it blatant ageism.

That’s a fight for another day. Barnsley find themselves in 2nd place and one of three remaining realistic title contenders. Luton have a not-insignificant points advantage over their rivals, but Barnsley’s top performance appears to be of a higher level than Luton’s based on the underlying numbers. So what do Barnsley have to overcome in the home straight?

Luton:

After a slightly tentative start to the season, Luton all of a sudden caught fire and have been a juggernaut ever since, knocking aside anyone who’s dared step into their path.

Their approach play has received a lot of praise this season – they are top scorers after all - but defensively they’ve been equally, if not more, impressive and they’ve conceded the joint-2nd fewest goals and, again bar one team, have kept the most clean sheets too.

Their underlying numbers support this. By expected goals, Luton have the most solid defence in the league with just 0.81 xG conceded per game. Look at their defensive radar and you can gain a greater understanding of why that figure is so low.

 

 

Luton are just very difficult to create against. They rank 2nd in Shots Conceded per game but their xG per shot conceded is also 3rd best in the league, meaning not only are they great at limiting the quantity of shooting opportunities created against them, they’re successfully limiting the quality of those opportunities too.

Another plus point is that whenever Luton have had an injury or suspension, the player coming into the side hasn’t hindered the quality of the side at all.

Scoring Contribution is a metric that measures non-penalty goals + assists, per 90 minutes played. Here’s how Luton’s players rank this season.

 

 

James Collins has been the only constant this season but the other attackers, Harry Cornick, Elliot Lee and Danny Hylton, have all had extended spells out of the side. As you can see, the output of all three has been very similar and the graph doesn’t even include Kazenga LuaLua (0.73 NPGoals + Assists per 90) as he doesn’t meet the minimum 600 minutes played threshold. Remove one of Luton’s limbs and they’ll just grow another one right before your eyes.

It’s Luton’s title to lose, but seemingly just two names remain on the list of challengers.

Shot Charts: Comparing 5 of the World's Best

Posted on by Oliver Walker

In examining football statistics, sometimes there's more information packed into a number than a few digits can convey. For instance, Zlatan Ibrahimovic has taken 77 unblocked shots and scored 16 goals, but these numbers don't contain all the information we would want to know to determine his skill as a scorer or his goal threat when shooting. They don't tell us where the shots come from or how often he converts a particular kind of shot.

This is where a visualization can be extremely useful. Inspired by some of the work that Kirk Goldsberry did for NBA basketball, I collected shot data for 5 top footballers and made shot charts for each one.  This post will be something of a test for how compelling the results are.

First, a bit of explanation. The size of the hexagons on each chart represent the number of shots taken from within that zone, while the color represents the percentage of those shots which have been on target. The numbers over each hexagon correspond to the number of goals scored from each area.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic zlatan_biglbl

The first thing to point out on Ibra's shot is that he has a shot from well within his own half (on target nonetheless), which seems very much in keeping with the insanity that is Zlatan. Next time I imagine that shot will be finding the back of the net. The chart shows that Ibrahimovic takes quite a few shots, not all of which are from particularly dangerous areas. He does, however, gets his shots on target reasonably well from more dangerous areas. A good comparison for his chart is probably Cristiano Ronaldo, another high volume shooter who isn't afraid to pull the trigger from distance.

ronaldo_biglbl

Cristiano Ronaldo, as the chart shows, will shoot from anywhere. Given his swerving shot, he's probably the player you want shooting from range, but his chart shows that his on target rates in many areas suffer from his volume and his overall rate is sunk somewhat by his shot selection. He certainly scores a lot of goals, but this chart makes you wonder if some of it might be a result of sheer numbers in terms of shots taken.

saurez_biglbl

Luis Suarez is another player that fits in as a comparison for these two. Suarez's chart reflects the kind of season he's been having. His total volume is similar to Ibrahimovic, despite missing the first 5 games of the season through suspension. Even with the number of shots he takes, his on target rates from anywhere around the penalty area are consistently high. Suarez shoots from distance, but he really makes his money from 18 yards or closer.  For a high-volume shooter, Suarez picks his shots a little more carefully than Zlatan, and certainly more so than Ronaldo, and given his form, it's hard to question the results.

Sergio Aguero

If not for Suarez's insane season, Aguero would probably be considered the in form striker in the Premier League. His chart makes for very different viewing than the previous three.

aguero_biglbl

He's missed several games due to injury, which drives his total shot number lower than it might be if he had been fit all season. His chart still illustrates, though, how different his role is from all of the other players charted so far. Aguero relies much more on his finishing ability in the box than creating his own opportunities from distance. The location of his goals reflects this as well. His on target rate is extremely high inside the box. It suffers only when he shoots from acute angles on the left side of the box, where he would be mostly shooting with his non-dominant foot.

Lionel Messi

Messi has played fewer league minutes (due to injury) than any of the above players so far this season, so his sample is somewhat limited. He's not a high volume shooter compared to the likes of Ronaldo, but he takes quite a few shots per 90 minutes played. The distribution of these shots, though, looks a bit more like Aguero's than any of the other players. This matches the image of Barcelona's style. Messi often scores his goals by arriving to meet a squared ball at the end of one of Barca's signature passing moves, and most of the time these kinds of opportunities fall right around the penalty spot. If it wasn't already clear, this chart illustrates just how effective he is in this role. With the caveat of the smaller sample size, Messi has the highest on target rate of the group.

There are certainly more things to say about these charts, and more patterns to find, but this is mostly a pilot run for this method of visualization. In the future I'd like to adjust the on target percentage scale to be relative to average rates from different positions, but unfortunately I don't have those data yet. If you'd like to see someone specific charted, or have feedback or ideas for future versions, please let me know on Twitter or by commenting.

Data Notes

The data consist of unblocked shots from domestic league matches up through January 18th. The data gathering was done by hand, match by match, using match reports from Squawka.com, which means it's more likely that I committed an error with a shot or two than if I had access to a database of shot locations.