Month: June 2014

Hazard has always been a precocious talent, and it's rare that a player will see so much playing time in a top league (30 matches!) at just 18 years of age. He's an extremely talented dribbler who uses that physical ability to create shots for himself and chances for his teammates. Incredibly, he's still only 23 years old right now, which means there's a decent chance he'll continue to improve over the next couple of seasons as well.

I think the statistics do a good job of telling the story of the Germany-Portugal game. Both teams had nine shots on goal. Germany had a few more tackles, Portugal had a few more fouls, and Germany had slightly more possession with 54% to 46% for Portugal. Pretty even all around. The only real difference is that Germany scored four goals, while Portugal had a player sent off for being a complete and utter idiot.

If you've seen Spain's tiebreakers, you've got a pretty good idea what to expect for Portugal's. Must be an Iberian thing. Moving on.

I'm sure there was a good scoring chance at some point in the Iran-Nigeria game, but I'll be darned if I can remember it. Both teams will need to do better if they intend to advance. While Nigeria is a point ahead of Bosnia-Herzegovina, a draw against them in their next game would put them in a tough spot. B&H is likely to defeat Iran, and even a draw against Argentina wouldn't save Nigeria at that point. As for Iran, they're up against Argentina next, so they probably won't put up another clean sheet.

While I'm quite pleased at the result, I'm not sure what to make of the USA-Ghana game. The Yanks scored early, but were clearly outplayed for most of the game. Ghana's offense was actually quite awful, only putting 8 of their 21 shots on goal (Yanks were 7 of 8). Ghana was able to equalize late, but the Yanks had as perfect a corner kick set play as you'll see, with a perfect kick setting up a textbook header. It's telling that despite what we saw today, Portugal are still clear favorites to pick up three points against the Americans. On the plus side, even a mere draw in that game would put team USA in an excellent spot to advance, even with a loss against Germany. Ghana is an awful spot, needing to get a good result against the Germans. Group G is going to get very interesting before we determine which team will join Germany in the next round.

Nate's projections bounced back from their first negative day, responding to an 0-3 day with a 3-0 sweep. That ended up putting Nate back at $302,705, just $4,825 off his peak. With Brazil back in action, Nate will again be risking a significant portion of his bankroll.

Game 15: Algeria +0.5 goals, 9.00%: Risking $27,243 to win $68,109

Game 16: Brazil, 46.00%: Risking $126,712 to win $44,349

Game 17: South Korea +0.5 goals, 12.51%: Risking $18,609 to win $20,009

Brazil did not play well against Croatia, so it will behoove them to raise their level against Mexico. I expect them to do so, although I'm not quite as confident as Nate is.

This has been a great World Cup so far, and thankfully I don't believe in jinxes. 🙂

Greetings, and welcome back to my scouting series. For explanation on the model I’m using to evaluate young players, please read this piece from last week. Today we’re going to look at three top guys from the Bundesliga as well as a good prospect that is almost certainly under the radar. I’m going to do these scouting reports a lot like I did last season, except I’m going to plonk radars in for the stats tables I did before. The reason for this is that the radars immediately orient your understanding of how a player is performing in the various stats I think are important for those positions. If a player’s radar shape touches the outside ring, then that season was in the top 5% of the population at that position. If the shape touches the inner ring, it’s in the bottom 5%. For those who want pure per 90 numbers, those are all listed in the bottom left, and bot 5% stats are red, top 5% are green. Simples, right? If you don’t like them or think they are overused, I apologize, but including them saves me a lot of time spent formatting and copying stats, which means more time to do analysis, writing, and edit new material on the site. YAPSS Targets I Am Not Going to Write About These are the players that have been flagged this season that I’m not going to write about because you guys already know who they are. Remember, all of these guys have to be 23 years or younger, and produce stats that the model thinks signifies they could be future stars. (YAPSS doesn’t know that many of these players are already current stars. YAPSS is not concerned with trivial things like fame, fortune, and player renown. If it were, it would be called Johnny5.) Neymar, Philippe Coutinho, Mohammed Salah, Isco, Christian Eriksen, Lucas Moura, Koke, Oscar, Raheem Sterling, Mario Gotze. Now for the four guys I am going to discuss today... Jonas Hofmann Age:  21 Position: Att Mid Team: Borussia Dortmund Fair Price: £12-15M Category: Future Star Who should buy him: I don’t think Dortmund will sell him unless they got a silly offer. This is a huge passing wedge with Key Passes at 3.76 per90 and assists following suit. Throughball numbers are good, but not great, and dribbles are solid. The area that falls down are the shooting stats. Part of this is caused by positioning (wider players will almost always take more difficult shots than guys who play in the center), and part caused by the fact that Hofmann doesn’t shoot that much. To give you an idea of how good those KP numbers are, Marco Reus lead the Bundesliga with 3.7 per 90. The next guy on the list is Kevin De Bruyne at 3.18 (I am so irritated he’s not in the Premier League – thanks Chelsea!), then Ribery at 3.02 and Max Kruse at 2.89. Hofmann didn’t play quite enough time to make it past the filter threshold I use for this query, but if he had, he would have lead the league in key passes at age 21. That’s a big deal. Yes, yes, yes, there are sub effects (seriously people, I told you about them, you don’t need to remind me they exist every day on Twitter), but he’s still just 21. For what it’s worth, the model doesn’t care about sub effects. All young players tend to spend a lot of time as subs early in their careers. Anyway, better KP rate than Marco Reus last season, yet there’s almost nothing about him on Youtube. Cmooooon Dortmund fans, get with the program! Aside from the stats, this is one of those times where I can’t tell you much. I saw Hofmann play 2 matches last season, one the beatdown of Bayern that Dortmund pulled off near the end of the season, where Jonas was great, and the other was 26 minutes against Madrid where he didn’t do much. All the scouting vids on YouTube are 7-10 months old, but he seems nice in interviews. (I got nuthin'.) He’s not big, but he’s got good pace, and the few shots he does take seem to be well timed and placed. He’s also stronger than he looks, possibly because his uniform seems to be about two sizes too big. Anyway, YAPSS loves this kid and thinks he will be great. Though I have tried to find it, my eyeballs don’t have enough data to back that up, so I’ll have to leave you to your own conclusions. Hakan Calhanoglu Age: 20 Position: Attacking Mid (R/L/C) Team: Hamburg Fair Price: £15M Category: Future Star Who should buy him: Would-be Champions League teams who need a top young attacking mid, especially on the left wing. (Spurs. Arsenal. Everton. He’s probably too similar to what Liverpool already have in Pipinho and Sterling for them to get involved.) This shape is special for a 20-year-old. Excellent shots, great key passes, good defensive rate, and some ability to dribble, though it’s not a crutch like it is for some youngsters. Calhanoglu plays with his head up. The one area of weakness is his passing selection – elite teams would really like for him to have a higher completion percentage to prove that he can play high possession football, but otherwise his skill set is outstanding. A lot of his added value comes from free kicks, so if a team already has a settled free kick taker, they might find him less valuable, but for me, that age plus his production make buying him a no-brainer. Speaking of free kicks, this guy takes them like he’s perfected his technique on FIFA. He’s got dip, swerve, hits all the corners from every distance. Watch the highlights below – some of them are just unbelievable. The other nice part about young players in the Bundesliga right now is that most of them seem to have release clauses built into their contracts in exchange for teams taking less risk they don’t work out by giving them lower wages. Teams that are aware of these can realize a lot of value, provided they make moves early. (Sidney Sam’s release clause was activated in like January. Max Kruse last season was bought in March/April.) Leverkusen have been rumoured to be close to purchasing Calhanoglu for almost a month, but as far as I know, the deal hasn’t been finalized. Given their other purchases (Drmic) and the fact that they will likely want to play up-tempo under Roger Schmidt (who last year did insane things with Red Bull Salzburg), Hakan makes a lot of sense and Leverkusen will be fascinating to watch next season. The embedded video below is from last year in the Bundesliga. If you want to go a little deeper, here’s the Scout Nation video from him at Karlsruhe as well. [youtube id="YeDo6l-DDsE" width="633" height="356"]   Leonardo Bittencourt Age: 20 Position: Att Mid (Right/Left) Team: Hannover Fair Price: £8M Category: Potential Star Who should buy him: Anyone looking for a quick wing attacker who works hard defensively. Bittencourt was briefly a Dortmund kid before moving to Hannover for £2.5M or so last year, and in his first full season in the Bundesliga, he was great. Shots, goals, assists, key passes, dribbles, and int + tack are all very strong for a 20-year-old. He’s super quick, and seems to play equally well on both wings, which makes him rather useful tactically. There is one glaring problem with Bittencourt in terms of a potential Premier League move… he’s tiny. He’s only 5’7”, and unlike other guys who have excelled in the Premier League, he doesn’t have a large frame either. If teams think he can build a bit more muscle, I think Bittencourt would be a great buy. He has excellent technical skill, and I think regularly bringing him off the bench for a season or two would yield huge dividends, as his pace on both the offensive and defensive ends would tear teams apart near the end of games. [youtube id="M-RrA5vVaDM" width="633" height="356"] Maximilian Beister Age:  23 Position:  FWD/Att Mid (Right) Team: Hamburg Fair Price: £5M Category: Good Prospect Who should buy him: Teams looking for a buzzy, forward/ right wing that can score now, but could grow into something better. Okay, I’m cheating here. Beister is a guy that was flagged in 2013 by the model in the “good player” category, and then just missed being flagged again this year. That’s a solid little wedge for a forward, which I think is probably where Beister should end up. His shots per 90 the last two years are excellent for a young player, but despite playing frequently on the wing, he’s not super creative, and should mostly be considered a finisher. If teams were looking for a solid 2^nd or 3^rd option at forward who could be a super sub, or gradually grow into something quite good, I’d at least take a look at Beister. The model doesn’t think he’ll set the world on fire, but sometimes you just want to find good younger players at a decent price.  

Poor Bosnia-Herzegovina. Two minutes into your toughest match and you deflect a long ball into the box into your own net. That had to be tough, but the Dragons settled down and fought pretty evenly against Los Gauchos (Cowboys and Dragons, together at last!) until Messi broke through and put the game out of reach, or so I thought at the time. Surprisingly, Bosnia-Herzegovina was able to produce some late drama and made for a very enjoyable finish. I (and Nate Silver) would love to have seen what would have happened had Bosnia-Herzegovina not put themselves into a hole early. Alas, counterfactuals are the province of philosophers and bullshit artists. [youtube id="oBIxGjSHzF8" width="633" height="356"] Ecuador looked like they were going to get a solid result against the favored Swiss. Despite being outplayed for much of the first half, they were able to grab and hold a lead heading into halftime. However, it is hard to hold Switzerland's Nationalmannschaft (Nati for short) down and the Swiss were able to equalize early in the second half. That set the stage for one the most glorious late goals I've ever seen. Breaking from one end of the field to the other, basically ignoring Ecuador's attempts to foul (and good on the ref for ignoring said fouls), they were are able to get the ball to Haris Seferovic who buried it right before the referee called time. That was a well deserved win for the Nationalmannschaft. Les Bleus were dominating the game even before a red card gave them a penalty shot and a man-advantage. They ended up with 71% of the possession and an easy three-nil win. La H will need to constrain their physicality to within the rules of futbol in their next game, or else they'll likely see a similar result. Yesterday was the first tough day for Nate Silver and his friends at 538. They ended up 0-3 and are down to $197,271. Today is another day, so once more unto the breach, dear friends. Day 5: Game 12: Germany, 21.54%: Risking $42,492 to win $44,192 Game 13: Iran +0.5 goals, 15.27%: Risking $36,871 to win $35,116 (Updated) Game 14: USA +0.5 goals, 14.27%: Risking $39.191 to win $26,127 (Updated) Hopefully the Nationalelf gets things off to a good start against Selecção das Quinas. I have pretty much no faith that the Yanks will ever get a good result versus the Black Stars.  That just leaves the Super Eagles against the Princes of Persia, which reminds me of a truly excellent book: Hamid Rahmanian did a masterful job retelling Ferdowsi's poem. If you have the opportunity to check it out, I highly recommend it. With that, I'll leave here, ready to enjoy another great day of futbol.  

Apparently the samurai strikes first, but eventually the elephant gets mad and just tramples everything in sight, but we'll get to that. First, let's start with Los Cafeteros (The Coffee Growers). Despite missing striker Radamel Falcao, Columbia is still a very dangerous opponent. To deal with Los Cafeteros, Greece had a very simple plan: Play tight defense, don't allow any goals, and if things wen't well, maybe they'd score one of their own and escape with three points. That was how Greece qualified, allowing 6 goals in 12 matches (from my quick scan of their qualifying results). Six minutes in, that plan was in ashes. I applaud the aggressiveness Greece showed after that, but while they did have a few good scoring opportunities, they ended up conceding two more goals and are now in a very tight spot. At halftime Uruguay had to feel pretty good. They were up one-nil on La Sele (Why am I not surprised that a country named Rich Coast has a soccer team named "The Selected"?). Even without Luis Suarez they figured they would come through with three points. Thirteen minutes into the second half, Uruguay was in trouble and their offense was faltering. Eventually they conceded a late goal and lost their composure. Costa Rica is now in a situation where a draw against Italy puts them in solid shape heading into their game against England. Mind you, a draw is no sure thing, but at this point Costa Rica can dare to dream. Speaking of England, their offense was surprisingly dangerous early against Italy. Unfortunately, it only was able to net one goal. Their defense wasn't nearly as impressive as their offense and they allowed Italy to convert on two of their scoring chances. After that, England wore down and weren't able to seriously threaten Italy. At this point the England-Uruguay game might as well be held in the Thunderdome. As for Italy, they now have to expect to win the group. The late game featured Ivory Coast vs. Japan. I was listening to the game on the radio and to hear the announcers tell it, Japan's goal was so strongly against the run of play as to offend the sensibilities. They also castigated Ivory Coast's defenders for a lackadaisical effort on the play. I was able to watch the second half and it did appear Ivory Coast was the better team. I don't think Didier Drogba's entrance was particularly relevant, as he didn't touch the ball on either goal. Still, once they held the lead, Ivory Coast controlled most of the play and looked clearly deserving of the win. So, where does all that leave our friend Nate Silver? Well, despite the stumble on England (which I think we all saw coming), it leaves him hugely up. To be precise, it leaves him with $307,530. Onward to day 4: Game 9: Ecuador, 16.47%: Risking $50,650 to win $129,158 Game 10: Honduras +0.5 goals (Nate wins on a tie or Honduras win), 10.89%: Risking $27,974 to win $84,770 Game 11: Bosnia-Herzegovina +0.5 goals, 13.82%: Risking $31,635 to win $81,115  I'm going to take a moment here to explain the methodology. Some people were asking why Nate was backing Costa Rica despite the fact he expected them to lose. The best analogy I can think of is someone offering you 10-1 on you rolling a seven with two normal six-sided dice. Yes, you're probably going to lose that bet, but that shouldn't stop you from risking 8.33% of your bankroll on it. Of course, no one is going to offer you that bet, and if they did, they probably have a trick up their sleeve. The important lesson here is, what matters most is expected average bankroll growth. You'll also note that this is the first time Nate is taking a spread instead of a 3-ball line. This is because his projections not only like those sides, but the likelihood of a draw as well in each of those games. Speaking of, it has been an exciting, high scoring, and draw-free World Cup so far. We'll see what day 4 has in store. Also In This Series: Nate Silver Day 3 Nate Silver Day 2 Nate Silver Day 1 Goldman Sachs      

Argentina are a nation of talented footballers, but they had two guys this past season who scored like Lionel Messi, and only one of them was actually named Messi. In fact, in 2013-14, Sergio "Kun" Aguero bettered Messi's production by some distance, leading Europe in non-penalty goal rate and overall scoring contribution. Only 5'8" tall, Aguero is small, but incredibly powerful, with a low center of gravity that makes him nearly impossible to knock off the ball. He dribbles well, is now an exceptional creatore from a center forward spot, and he's become a specialist in scoring goals from acute angles. One Messi was hard enough for teams to deal with, but two guys with god-like production backed by Angel di Maria as a provider make Argentina one of the teams to beat in Brazil 2014.

Gerrard has been fantastically consistent throughout his career, even into his 30's. It's interesting to watch the radar shape change though. It gets skinnier during the Dalglish season in 2011-12, then fattens out the last two years as Rodgers pushed him back in the formation a bit. Longballs and defensive work shoot up then, and 2013-14 was an amazing season of production, regardless of age.

No one expects the Dutch Inquisition. Spain certainly didn't. After going up one-nil on a penalty kick (that should not have been awarded due to Costa initiating the contact), Spain had to feel pretty confident. A brilliant header from RVP tied the game at the half.

Early in the second half Arjen Robben was able to split two defenders and drill one home by unexpectedly going to his left. I should note that both of the first two Dutch goals were set up by brilliant long balls to the scoring players, as was the third. The fourth goal was caused by Casillas (the Spanish goalie) making a meal of a back pass.

At that point "Spain's embarrassment is complete", or so the commentators thought. What they didn't foresee was that one more time Arjen Robben would reverse direction and go left with a ball in the box. Casillas was so shocked he was left lying on the ground, leaving an open net that Robben deposited the ball into. 5-1.

 

 

At this point Spain's tiebreakers are bollocks. If the Netherlands defeats Australia (more on them shortly), a draw against Chile would leave Spain in a very bad spot. That would mean a Chile-Netherlands draw would advance both participants. The Spain-Chile game is a must-win for Spain, and that will not be easy.

Chile is a tough squad, but I must confess I was impressed by Australia's fighting spirit. After falling behind two-nil in the opening 15 minutes, Australia fought back and scored in the 35th. After that they kept the game close until Chile put it away with a goal in extra time. Australia's opposition doesn't get any easier with games against the Netherlands and Spain on deck.

After running out to a 2-1 lead in the first half (all three goals disallowed), Mexico was able to add a third goal in the 61st minute and hold on for a 3-1 (technically one-nil) victory over Cameroon. Brazil is next up for Mexico, but the key game is actually following against Croatia. They'll need to deny Croatia a victory to ensure they'll move on to the next round.

So, what did all this mean to Nate Silver? Well, The Dutch and Chilean victories more than offset Cameroon's defeat, and he now stands tall with a bankroll of $149,917. Very nice work after a mere four games, which, coincidentally is what we have on tap today:

Game 5: Colombia, 3.45%: Risking $5,172 to win $4,707

Game 6: Costa Rica, 9.78%: Risking $15,122 to win $133,075 (Updated)

Game 7: England, 13.62%: Risking $39,185 to win $75,234 (Updated)

Game 8: Ivory Coast, 14.48%: Risking $35,985 to win $59,015 (Updated)

Now, some of you might be asking why the amount wagered on Ivory Coast is less than the amount wagered on England. Others might be asking the more pressing question of why Nate is wagering on England at all! The answer is that I am listing the amounts as if all previous bets were to lose, and then adding to the stakes as positive results come in. As for backing England, I say what a man does with his pounds and pence is his business.

Yesterday was a great day of futbol. Here's to another one today.

Also In This Series:

Nate Silver Day 2

Nate Silver Day 1

Goldman Sachs

When I was growing up I used to love books about circuses and carnivals, much more so than I enjoyed circuses or carnivals themselves. The reason for that was that I was mostly interested in the people who worked the shows and how they ended up there. I still distinctly remember a lion tamer who worked three shows a night. In the early show he stuck his arm into the lion's mouth. In the prime time show he stuck his head into the lion's mouth. In the late show he risked what was most precious to him. After one such late show the strongman came up to the lion tamer and asked him how he could be so brave. The lion tamer answered "There's nothing to be afraid of, except perhaps a sneeze." In game one Nate Silver stuck his REDACTED into the lion's mouth, and the lion almost sneezed. At multiple times in that game Brazil was an underdog to win outright. Thankfully, it's good to be at home and Brazil was gifted a goal, while Croatia had a good opportunity at one taken away. Brazil didn't look like anything close to the best team in the world, and if that is how they play for the rest of the tournament, it won't be: But rather: No such risks in game 2, as Nate will be risking $2,157 on Cameroon to win $6,255. 538 caught a little bit of a break for game three as I already entered their game 3 stake of $5,254 on the Netherlands to win $25,219 (4.54% of the bankroll, presuming Cameroon fails to win). The line has moved slightly toward the Netherlands, so even if Cameroon wins, it won't be clear if the Kelly-stake will increase or not. If necessary, I'll check after game two. In game four 538 thinks Chile has a 72% chance of victory. As such, at current market prices they'll invest 16% of their bankroll, in the hopes of increasing said bankroll by 8%. Assuming the first two games go poorly, that would mean an investment of $16,676 to win $8,838. Game 2: Cameroon, 1.83%: Risking $2,157 to win $6,255 Game 3: Netherlands, 4.54%: Risking $5,254 to win $25,219 Game 4: Chile, 12.73%: Risking $17,942 to win $8,933 (numbers modified due to the Netherlands victory, and line movement towards Chile. So far Nate's line movement has been quite solid). Nate's current bankroll is $117,884.

The world of football is a funny place. Just because you are born somewhere doesn't mean that you are limited to playing your football there. There was a little battle between Brazil and Spain last year over who would wind up with Costa's services, and Spain won out. This outcome means he will be outfitted for La Furia Roja today, a definite miss for the Brazilian team, but one that they probably won't mind in the end as long as the dodgy refereeing continues unabated. As you can see from the radars below, Costa's game has evolved over time. In two of those seasons, he was the primary goal scoring outlet (at Rayo and again with Atletico Madrid last season), while in two of those seasons he was playing second fiddle to Falcao, and his production (and radar shape) reflects that. If you are interested in Costa beyond the stats, Sid Lowe has been churning out great stories about him for years.

It's cool to watch Modric's radar change from year to year, as he gets placed in new roles with different responsibilities. The two best years on display here are arguably his last season with Tottenham and his first season with Real Madrid. They are also two of the finest seasons you will ever see from a central midfielder in terms of stats, but much like Modric himself, they went largely unheralded in the broader media. His role shifted a bit with Real Madrid this season, as Carlo Ancelotti used him as more a game controller and less an attacking dynamo, but with the shift in roles also came the club game's biggest prize, a Champions League medal. Modric and Rakitic make up arguably the finest central midfielder pairing you will see on display at the World Cup.