Month: February 2020

With the phenomenal emergence of Erling Haaland, Jadon Sancho and Timo Werner, and with Robert Lewandowski cementing his status as the world’s best pure nine through ongoing machine-like efficiency, the Bundesliga's star power continues to grow. But in football, we divide our attention unfairly. Sure, we’re always interested in mega-mega-stars, like the foursome mentioned above. But stars come in different shapes and sizes. And today, we’d like to take a look at those Bundesliga players who excel on a weekly basis but seem to escape our attention because they play for smaller clubs or in non-glamorous roles. So without further ado, we’d like to present the StatsBomb No-Name All-Stars of the 2019-20 Bundesliga season.

Goalkeeper: Rafał Gikiewicz (Union Berlin)

We (heavily) praised Gikiewicz in this StatsBomb piece about the best keepers in this year’s Bundesliga. But the Polish late-bloomer — who, at age 32, is experiencing his first season as a starter in a top European league — is too solid to exclude from this team. Union Berlin's first season at the highest level of German football has been rather special. The East German side looks like they'll easily avoid relegation, playing solid, direct football. Gikiewicz's reflexes and ball distribution, alongside his goals saved above average of 2.17 (fifth in the Bundesliga) make him an integral part of the team's surprising success.

Right-back: William (VfL Wolfsburg)

Out of the 18 Bundesliga clubs, only Bayern München, FC Augsburg and SC Paderborn have not opted for at least one game in which they play with three centre backs. So it only seems right that one of the many energizer-bunny wing-backs in Germany’s top league gets some love here. And with Wolfsburg’s excellent right-flanker William picking up a nasty knee injury this weekend, it's a good time to point out that the Brazilian has been excellent for Die Wölfe this season. Back in 2017, Wolfsburg paid a 5 million euro transfer fee for William, who already had three years as a full-time starter under his belt at Internacional before he turned 22 years old.   William, like most good wing-backs, boasts impressive stamina and ball-playing ability. But what sets the Brazilian apart from the other decent right-backs in the second half of the Bundesliga table is the fact that he can actually defend, a skill some of these new-age flank defenders often do not have in spades. 

Centre-back: Ozan Kabak (Schalke 04)

What's up with young Turkish central defenders nowadays? Caglar Söyüncü is downright great at Leicester City, Merih Demiral nearly beat out record signing Matthijs de Ligt for the starting spot next to Leonardo Bonucci at Juventus and this Kabak youngster at Schalke is pretty, pret-tay, good. In January 2019, then-struggling VfB Stuttgart signed Kabak two months before his 19th birthday. Although Die Schwaben eventually lost their battle against relegation, Kabak had impressed enough that Schalke 04 was willing to pay 15 million euros for the teen defender, a 4 million euro increase from the fee that Stuttgart originally paid. The big loser in all of this? Kabak’s former club, Galatasaray, who took the quick money and now have to make peace with watching his development into an elite centre back from a distance. Kabak doesn’t have the imposing physique of his fellow countryman Demiral, but he more than makes up for that with his athletic ability. Kabak is quick, strong for someone his size and a noticeably good leaper. His game compares more to that of Söyüncü — Kabak, like Leicester’s young defensive star, shows great confidence and skill when building up play from the back, and possesses great instincts when it comes to taking up the right marking positions.

Centre-back: Sebastian Schonlau (SC Paderborn)

Listen, bad defensive teams might include good individual defensive talents. Such is the case for Schonlau. As a starting centre back for lowly Paderborn, Schonlau has been, unsurprisingly, very busy with defensive duties this year. Schonlau has been solid, defensively. But the 25-year-old homegrown defenceman looks downright outstanding in games where his team actually has some of the ball. If Paderborn gets relegated, Schonlau won't need to worry about his future as a starting defender in Germany’s top league.

Left-back: Alphonso Davies (Bayern München)

Okay, okay. Sure. This is cheating, technically. A Bayern sensation should not be making the No-Name All-Star Squad. But (A) Davies was originally an attacker when Bayern brought him in as the next wonder talent, and (B) just please take a look at his radar. It’s not normal to have such an impact, at such a big club, at such a young age. Defensive mid: Omar Mascarell (Schalke 04)

Look, we’re taking this All-Star thing seriously. So no gimmicky formations with seven attackers. We want our midfield to have balance! Remember that anonymous Spanish ball-winner who was excellent at Niko Kovač's Eintracht Frankfurt two years ago? Well, that guy, Omar Mascarell, has bounced back at Schalke from a pretty disappointing first year in Gelsenkirchen. The former Real Madrid youth product has grown into the most trusted lieutenant of new Schalke manager David Wagner.

Attacking mid: Florian Neuhaus (Borussia Mönchengladbach)

Hot take: you’re being a bit of a Captain Hindsight if you say that one of Gladbach’s star performers cannot belong in a squad of ‘unknown’ All-Stars. Because nobody could have predicted such a marked improvement from Gladbach in his first year under Marco Rose and René Maric. This team is legitimately good, and seems to have long-term staying power (provided no one sneaks in to snap up Rose). Neuhaus is one of the most exciting players in this young squad. The 22-year-old’s game is similar to Leon Goretzka’s, as he's heavy-running ball-winner, ‘doesn’t do’ silly losses of possession, is a neat dribbler and has a sharp eye for the right shot selection.

Attacking mid: Cristopher Nkunku (RB Leipzig)

RB Leipzig truly know what they are doing, scouting-wise. Look at Nkunku’s production. Not too shabby for a PSG cast-off that only cost Die Roten Bullen around 13 million euros. It's not only his output, but the fact that the man plays literally everywhere. Here the attacking midfielder/winger radar is used, but he's logged minutes from fullback to striker. Nkunkou is a truly unique blend of ability and versatility.

Winger: Milot Rashica (Werder Bremen)

While it's commendable that Werder are sticking with their young manager Florian Kohfeldt through a truly horrid spell of results, it feels strange to think that a club with Bremen's track record could slide down into the 2.Bundesliga, even if it's becoming more and more likely each week. If it happens, a (somewhat) wealthy club could make a wise move in the summer transfer window by taking a flier on Werder’s star player.  Admittedly, Rashica often cannot recognize a well-chosen time to shoot (or, more often, to not shoot), but the Kosovar winger does two things well enough to earn a serious look from bigger clubs. First, the former Vitesse attacker knows how to get his shots — which, yeah, kind of gets nullified by shoddy selection. But Rashica also is an elite dribbler. The 23-year-old  is speedy, can throw a couple of nice body feints to blow by opposing backs, and has plenty of shot power in both feet. If he just stopped being so very, very indiscriminate with his shooting, he might end up becoming an impact player at a club that doesn't increasingly look destined for a historic demotion.

Winger: Ruben Vargas (FC Augsburg)

To balance out Rashica’s wild flavor in shot selection, our All-Star squad also gets a young winger who excels in taking smart shots. The signing of the Swiss-Dominican Vargas was a pretty impressive bit of transfer business by Augsburg this summer. The 2.7 million euro fee they paid FC Lüzern can be multiplied by a lot if Augsburg decide to sell their talented left-winger. Vargas possesses the rare combo of elite speed and two-footedness as a passer and finisher.

Striker: Gonçalo Paciência (Eintracht Frankfurt)

Let’s get funky in rounding out our All-Underrated Squad. Heck, let’s start a playmaking striker up top. Paciência is a fun player to watch, and Frankfurt are on the rise.

A Championship-specific mailbag! Right here! A second-tier league full of top-tier entertainment. Questions were asked, answers will follow. https://twitter.com/DavidAnderson_1/status/1224341362335764486 This year, Brentford are different. Rewind to any debate about the Bees in the last three or four seasons and without fail you’d hear something along the lines of 'fantastic to watch, great play in the final third, too soft at the back'. Over the previous three seasons — in which they’ve fallen just short of the play-offs — Brentford conceded 1.41, 1.13 and 1.28 goals per game respectively. This season it’s 0.76 per game. Their record of 23 goals conceded in 30 games makes them the meanest defence in the entire league. Even though the first two-thirds of a season have established that Brentford are a solid outfit now, it doesn’t make it any less weird. At any rate, to answer the question, let’s compare last season’s defensive radar with the same template from this season. Seems conclusive. When looking at these figures you can, by a rule of thumb, consider the data points on the left to be ‘process’ indicators and the data points on the right to be ‘outcome’ indicators. The only difference between last season and this season in the ‘process’ category is defensive distance, which shows Brentford are performing defensive actions just over two metres higher up the pitch on average compared to last season. But that doesn’t explain the vast reduction in the quality of chances that Brentford give up. If anything, one could make the opposite argument that defending even further up the pitch should lead to more space behind the defence, which should lead to more counter-attacking opportunities for the opponent. That their passes per defensive action (PPDA), aggression (the portion of opponent passes they aggressively press), and opponent pass completion percentage all remain around the same level is curious. All of this leads me to one, un-video verified, conclusion: Brentford are simply more organised and coordinated in their pressing and their out of possession shape this season. Fewer gaps and spaces are left for the opposition to expose and play into. A tick in the coaching box for Thomas Frank. The other way in which Brentford have improved is that they’ve chopped 0.12 expected goals per game off their set-piece xG conceded, which works out to 5–6 goals a season. This could well be a tick for Pontus given his aerial prowess but the summer appointment of Head of Set Pieces Andreas Georgson probably has more to do with it. Overall, the Bees' improvement at the back, their ability to retain their attacking power and yet another summer of successful player trading is to be applauded, for sure. It’s impossible to see anything less than a play-off finish for Brentford, and it could feasibly be even more. https://twitter.com/chrisbelmore/status/1224354837120184323?s=20 The first caveat is one that isn't new, nor is it popular, but it's important to put Derby's season in context. Last season, they were just a top-six side, and it was a season-long overperformance — particularly late on — of their expected goals numbers that helped them finish even that high.   As Chris points out, after removing the now-established Premier League talent of Fikayo Tomori, Mason Mount and Harry Wilson from the side, the team were already working off a much weaker base going into this season. A team that was barely a top-six Championship side now most certainly wouldn't finish that high unless Derby could repeat the trick of recruiting well to replace the quality lost, which was always going to be difficult to do. Factor in the literal rap sheet of bad off-field behavior — which seems to pile in on a monthly basis — and the foundations simply aren’t there for the team to mount a promotion bid. For me, Cocu gets a free pass on that. Given that Derby were reliant on the aforementioned loan signings to reach the top six last season, it’s clear the squad's foundations did not rise to that level without those players, and therefore a squad rebuild was/is required. Before a squad really takes on the manager's image, the club needs three (at minimum) transfer windows to find the right players. One feather in Cocu’s cap is that in the absence of incoming replacements, he’s integrated more academy products to the team. In addition to last season’s standouts, Jayden Bogle. Jason Knight and Max Lowe, who are getting regular minutes, several more linger on the fringes, in position to break through over the next couple of seasons. The introduction of these players — assuming they are of sufficient quality, which early indicators suggest they may well be — will save Derby money in the transfer market or could help to fund their rebuild if these players progress faster than the club and move on to the Premier League (cough, Bogle, cough). On the pitch, it was a pretty underwhelming start, but the stats indicate their performances are moving in the right direction, although the recent run of good form has come on a ridiculously soft set of fixtures. All in all, Cocu’s had a frankly ridiculous set of off-field distractions to wrestle with this season, none of which he is responsible for. Is he maximising the team at the moment? Probably not. Is it reasonable to expect him to be doing so given the circumstances he’s had to manage under? Definitely not. https://twitter.com/fplredrobin/status/1224391817388613642 I’ll let you be the judge. https://twitter.com/dgouilard/status/1224336891769524232 There’s been a pretty hefty decline in Preston’s results as the season’s progressed, and a couple of factors go a long way to explaining it. To start with, Preston’s season can pretty much be chopped in two: pre- and post-November 9th.

• Pre-November 9th, their record was P16 W9 D4 L3. Points per game: 2.06
• Post-November 9th, it’s P14 W4 D4 L6. Points per game: 1.14

The first explanation is that Preston were +8 in penalties in the opening 16 fixtures (8 won, 0 conceded) — the next best in the league was 4. So, whilst Preston were setting a good standard on the pitch in that time, their results received a boost thanks to their run of winning penalties. In the 14 games since that time, Preston’s penalty difference is -4 (0 won, 4 conceded). That swing goes a long way to explaining such a dramatic drop off in points. The other, more nuanced, but equally disruptive factor is the injuries Preston picked up prior to and during their run of four defeats up to early December. Defensive jewel Ben Davies dropped out, before big midfield influencers Paul Gallagher and Daniel Johnson both served time on the sideline. Maybe I’m over-simplifying, but it does seem that early on Preston were benefitting from a hot run of penalties and a settled side that allowed them to maximise their results. Winning fewer penalties and losing two or three key players — particularly at Preston where they lack the squad depth of their more financially-flush rivals — over a stretch of games will inevitably lead to a downturn in both on-pitch performances and results. Their current position of 7th is probably a fair reflection of their true ability anyway. https://twitter.com/EmilioPepilio/status/1224364186580529158 I’m not quite sure how to answer this when I regularly find myself asking the same first question myself, but here goes. At the start of the season, Leeds looked exceptionally good — better than last season and quite considerably ahead of anyone else in the league. Results were good, but the scoreline was tighter in a few games than Leeds’ domination suggested it should have been. The main issue, as raised, is the attack. After 21 games, Leeds had conceded just 10 goals, a fair reflection or their performances as captured by stats. They were a defensive machine. That they weren’t further ahead in the league table was down to squandering chances that would’ve turned some losses into draws and some draws into wins. But then Leeds won seven games in a row between November and December, and everyone collectively stopped scratching their heads; we’d all seen this coming. The Leeds machine was finally taking teams apart like they always threatened they were going to. I raise all this because the slump they’re currently enduring is not because they’ve started squandering chances again. The finishing ain't the problem anymore. It should be obvious to anyone: The issues are at the back. In the 9 fixtures since their winning run ended, they’ve conceded 17 goals. Their shots conceded per game rose from 8.67 to 10.22, fairly negligible but a downturn nonetheless. More alarming is that their xG per shot conceded increased from 0.07 to 0.11. So we’re now faced with the double whammy of Leeds objectively performing worse defensively (albeit over a small sample of games) and Kiko Casilla having a slump in form between the sticks. Whether this continues largely depends on the reasons for the drop off. Have the players finally been exhausted by Marcelo Bielsa’s methods after 18 months at the helm, as some people suggest? Maybe? It could also be a simple wobble in performance. Whilst Leeds don’t look as daunting as they did earlier in the season, they still look promotion-contender levels of good. Whether their promotion bid is successful depends on whether the gradual decline in performances continues or whether the machine is just suffering a blip and resumes normal service in time. One wonders if Bielsa has tried turning his robots off and on again. https://twitter.com/analytic_footy/status/1224372797360820225 The trendline since the start of Bielsa’s reign certainly fuels the argument that Leeds are fudging xG somehow. Results have routinely struggled to keep up with performances. However, we’ve all seen the chances that Patrick Bamford and others have missed this season. The amount of ‘you simply have to score those’ chances that they've squandered is borderline comical. Which, for me, rules out any blind spots in the model. Bielsa’s system is lining these chances up for players, ‘tis the individual who is not finishing them. https://twitter.com/LukeSouthworth/status/1224330860905881601 To round things off I’ll answer with my underrated player because it’s easy. Ladies and gentlemen, Mathieu James Patrick Smith. In the 100th percentile for aerial wins. The best Plan B in the league. Pure battering ram. Show me a defender who can consistently beat him in the air and I’ll show you a liar. Case closed. https://twitter.com/mixedknuts/status/1224336330747973632 We end with some health advice from the CEO because after all, your health is your wealth. 'Till next time, folks.

Real Madrid’s stingy defence, Ansu Fati’s antecedents, the free-kick prowess of Óscar Rodríguez and Paco Alcácer’s fit at Villarreal. It’s all here in this week’s La Liga wrap.

Solid Real Madrid

Real Madrid retained their three-point advantage at the top of the table with a 1–0 victory over local rivals Atlético Madrid, a win that provides a perfect microcosm of their approach this season. Madrid took 16 shots, right on their league-high average of 15.91, but most were of relatively poor quality. They and Barcelona are pretty much dead even in terms of expected goals (xG) this season, but the two got there in very different ways: Madrid prioritise volume over quality; Barcelona take fewer shots of higher average quality. Five of those shots came from set pieces, where Real Madrid lead the league.   At the other end, they conceded just four shots for a tally of 0.20 xG. On average this season, only Getafe’s hyper-press has limited opponents to fewer shots than Madrid. No team has conceded fewer goals, and in xG terms, Madrid also have the league’s joint-best defence, alongside their city rivals. After what was, at least in their terms, a pretty disastrous campaign last time around, Zinedine Zidane has crafted a solid side capable of constricting their opponents and then piling on enough shots from crosses, set pieces and general play to more often than not get the goals they need to emerge victorious. If Madrid continue to score at their current rate, they could reach 70 goals — better than last season, yet miles away from their average of over 100 goals per season over the previous five campaigns. But even if their concession rate slackens somewhat, this will still be their best defensive season since the late eighties, perhaps even further back than that. It’s a combination that may well be enough to see the league title return to the Bernabéu.

How good is Ansu Fati?

On Sunday night, Ansu Fati added another record to his growing collection by becoming the youngest-ever player to score a brace in La Liga. Two quick-fire goals, both assisted by Lionel Messi, powered Barcelona to a 2–1 win over Levante and continued his incredible ascension. “This is all a dream,” he admitted afterwards. Fati’s output to date is crazy good for a 17-year-old. No one likes to put limits on young talents, especially ones who break through at one of the world’s biggest clubs at such a preternatural age, but two lingering questions remain: 1) Can he replicate that output over a larger sample size? Usually, a player needs to see at least 900 minutes of action before any sort of useful conclusions can be drawn about a player, and ideally more than that; and 2) How does he compare to other forwards who’ve broken through young at Barcelona? Does this kind of output necessarily precede superstardom? Thanks to our Messi Data Biography, we can answer that second question. Here is how Fati compares to several of the other starlets who’ve made strong early impressions at Barcelona. First up, the man himself: Lionel Messi. That’s probably an unfair comparison for anyone. Messi’s output was extraordinary from the get-go. Next up, Bojan. He debuted in September 2007, less than three weeks after his 17th birthday. Fati just about prevails, but it’s close. Finally, we have Munir. He scored on his debut as an 18-year-old near the end of August 2014 and was a Spain international just a couple of weeks later — his one and only cap. This one is pretty much a tie: better shooting output from Munir; better creative output from Fati. These quick and dirty comparisons serve to provide some context as to what Fati might go on to achieve from here. Superstar, rotational forward in a top-four chasing side or playing in MLS before age 30 — it feels like all of those outcomes are still in play.

Óscar Rodríguez: Free-Kick Maestro?

Leganés and Real Sociedad seemed headed for a draw in their meeting at Butarque on Sunday when the home team were awarded a free-kick deep into stoppage time. Óscar Rodríguez placed the ball down and retreated a few paces. The whistle blew, and up he stepped to fire a superb strike right into the top corner. It wasn’t the first time he’s done that this season. It was his 3rd free-kick goal from 10 attempts, and he also struck the woodwork against Valencia. So do we have a new free-kick maestro on our hands? The truth is there's no way to tell at this stage. The sample size is far too small. However, a goal scored in every three or so free-kicks is an insanely high scoring rate. Smooth it out with last season’s data, when he failed to score in 10 attempts, and the Rodríguez scores a goal in every 6.67 free-kicks, which is still quite high. Messi is one of the few players for whom there's enough data to say with a degree of confidence that he is a skilled set-piece shooter, and even he averages less than one goal in 10 free kicks over the course of his career. Over smaller sample sizes, we can see all manner of misleading hot streaks. Enis Bardhi is the go-to example in La Liga. In the 2017–18 season, he scored five goals from 16 direct free-kicks — barely less than one goal for every three he took. In reality, that conversion rate was never going to be sustainable. But what was, in effect, a statistical aberration was widely treated as evidence of supreme ability. Bardhi was hailed as a challenger to Messi’s crown as Europe’s best at free-kicks. Fast forward a season and a half, and the folly of that argument is evident. From his subsequent 26 shots from direct free-kicks, he has scored just once.   Bardhi still has an impressive but slightly more realistic hit-rate of a goal for every seven direct free-kicks he has attempted in La Liga. He is probably an above-average taker, but the evidence still only amounts to less than 50 shots. Messi has maintained an impressive rate over more than 350. Rodríguez has a long way to go to match either of them.

Paco Alcácer Debuts In Style

Paco Alcácer’s debut for Villarreal didn’t quite match the one of his replacement at Borussia Dortmund, but it did give an early indication that he'll be well-suited to the style of play at his new club. He moved in behind onto a Manu Trigueros pass to give them a first-half lead at home to Osasuna on Sunday, and later won the penalty from which they wrapped things up in a 3–1 win, again springing in behind before being taken down. Villarreal were already one of the most dangerous teams in La Liga in terms of moving forward in transition and getting in behind opposing defences. They lead the league in counter-attacking shots and rank in the top three for clear shots (essentially those that are one-on-one with the goalkeeper). They’ve got pace in behind, and plenty of good passers. Even the two central defenders Raúl Albiol and Pau Torres — both in the top three in the league in terms of completed long balls — sometimes get in on the act, as this map of their key passes demonstrates. It is an environment in which a player with Alcácer’s smarts can be expected to thrive.   Header image courtesy of the Press Association

Have teams made upgrades? This was not a January transfer window to remember in the Premier League. Many sides largely sat it out due to the difficulty in getting things done, while others were happy with what they had. Even so, there are players who can have a big impact at their clubs down the stretch and next season. Let’s take a look at some of the bigger moves and what they might be capable of.

Bruno Fernandes, Manchester United

Oh, Bruno Fernandes, you fearless player. Here’s what there is to know about Fernandes: he’s an incredible playmaker. He’s been blowing the Primeira Liga away with his vision and passing range. In many regards he is to Portugal’s top flight what Kevin De Bruyne is to the Premier League, with the obvious understanding that we’re talking a significant gap in league difficulty. But here’s the issue: the way he does this is by constantly taking risks whenever he has the ball. A pass completion of 75% seems low for a top playmaker at one of the best sides in Portugal, but it makes sense when you see what he’s actually doing with the ball. He’s constantly taking risks, trying the most ambitious things in the hope, more than anything else, that they’ll pay off. Let’s start with his shot map. Fernandes likes a punt from range. He’s a player who might be using his reputation from range to better his passing options. If a defender knows Fernandes might have a go from 30 yards, he’s more likely to rush out and close him down, opening up spaces in behind for the Portugal international to pick out a pass. But it’s not just his shooting where he’s prone to consistently bold choices. The passing sonar above shows us just how much he takes the riskier, more ambitious option in possession. For point of comparison, here’s another Man Utd attacking midfielder who puts up a much higher pass completion rate, but clearly chooses to play things a lot safer. If Fernandes had signed for another big club, I might have more concerns, but he fills such a need for United that this should be a clear upgrade. In the increasingly common instances where Paul Pogba is not on the pitch, the side totally lack the creative passing threat to break teams down. Juan Mata is currently their most creative player in terms of open play passes into the box, but he’s 31 and we’re not talking Lionel Messi here. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer got exactly the type of player he needed, even if there are questions over how good he truly is.

Steven Bergwijn, Tottenham

Well he certainly delivered a good first impression. Spurs signed Steven Bergwijn from PSV for a fee thought to be £26.7 million to fill a need from wide areas. During the Mauricio Pochettino era, much of Spurs’ best football came with the trio of Dele Alli, Christian Eriksen and Son Heung-min behind Harry Kane. Dele and Son offered shots and movements into the box, while Eriksen offered guile with the ball at his feet and Kane posed an all round centre forward threat. It’s no secret that Eriksen had one foot out the door long before he officially joined Inter, and Spurs had been planning for this in the summer. Giovani Lo Celso had been signed as Pochettino’s idea of an Eriksen replacement, but Jose Mourinho sees things differently, with the playmaker thriving more recently in a central midfield role. Kane’s absence has led to Lucas Moura taking up the striking role, leaving only Dele and Son as obvious attacking midfield starters. Mourinho doesn’t need as much passing threat, and has all he wants from Lo Celso in a deeper role. What he really wants is a direct running wide player, who can offer a robust dribbling threat but defensive solidity. Enter Bergwijn. His numbers are somewhat down from last year (in blue, while 18/19 is in red), and you’d hope it’s just an issue with PSV. But he still looks solid regardless.   The success rate of transfers from the Eredivisie to the Premier League is what it is. But nonetheless, Bergwijn looks a good fit for what Mourinho is going to want from a winger in this team. It might not be the most exciting comparison, but he could have his new Willian in Bergwijn. The best case scenario is that he translates everything he’s done in the Netherlands into being a genuine star, but a more modest outcome would still prove a good signing.

Jarrod Bowen, West Ham

First of all, I like Jarrod Bowen. His xG and xG assisted per 90 in the Championship this season has been bettered only by Nahki Wells and Patrick Bamford (if he could just learn how to finish). He’s the right age at 23, left footed, and able to get plenty of good shots despite starting in wide areas. Those players are always valuable. He has beaten his expected goals this season, but the fundamentals are still strong. The real question, then, is how he fits into David Moyes’ side. The Hammers’ biggest need for many years has been in central midfield. They have addressed this with Tomáš Souček, but it’s really hard to gauge how a player from the Czech First League will do in England’s top flight. Moyes has been starting the also left footed Robert Snodgrass on the right since his return to the London Stadium, and while we’re looking at a small sample size here, it’s hard to imagine there isn’t room for improvement. The concern is that Moyes’ style won’t exactly encourage Bowen to get into the box a lot. There’s nothing innately wrong with using wide players conservatively, and West Ham were certainly far too open before his arrival. But I remain unsure that Bowen is the ideal player for this role. Regardless, West Ham are getting a talented player at the right age (23), with an English premium in the future. So it’s hard to see much in the way of downside.

Takumi Minamino, Liverpool

Liverpool’s signing of Takumi Minamino from Red Bull Salzburg feels like it happened so long ago that it's strange to include him on this list. Everyone knows how good the Reds’ front three are, so there’s no need to discuss that, but when the fourth choice attacker is Divock Origi (who has his uses, but remains a limited player), it’s understandable that you’d want to go into the market to find someone. The top line numbers point to this deal making a lot of sense. Minamino can also offer flexibility. As the Japan international’s former assistant manager (and friend of StatsBomb) René Marić has explained, Minamino is “normally best as [a number ten], but can play as a forward/striker or winger, too”, while he has also played at wing back and as a number eight style central midfielder. Liverpool have preferred to keep a relatively thin squad behind a strong starting eleven in recent years, so someone who can fill in for a number of players is useful. Thus far, he has featured as an alternative to Roberto Firmino in the false nine role without really looking up to speed. While adapting to the Premier League could take time, he shouldn’t have too much issue learning the pressing system that isn’t a million miles away from Red Bull’s approach. Even if this doesn’t pay off, for a low fee it’s a relatively risk free move for Liverpool.

Sander Berge, Sheffield United

If the table hadn’t told you already, Sheffield United’s signing of Sander Berge from Genk made it obvious: the Blades are here to stay. Chris Wilder’s side has relied on a midfield three of Oliver Norwood, John Fleck and John Lundstram to keep things compact in the centre of the park. This has been effective, but it’s understandable that they might look for a little more sparkle here without sacrificing what’s worked. Berge is a good all rounder of a midfielder. He can pass and dribble well while putting up decent defensive work, and he stands at all of 6’5. Typically one might expect a player of his technique and mobility to lack in stature, so it’s a real bonus that he’s so big. There’s obviously going to be a steep adaptation curve from Belgium, but at age 21, this should all be doable and it’s hard to find fault in this deal.

Daniel Podence, Wolverhampton Wanderers

Wolves signed another Portuguese player. Drink. Nuno Espirito Santo seems wed to his 3-4-3 system, with Adama Traoré and Diogo Jota either side of Raúl Jiménez. Traoré has been receiving a lot of hype this year, with his out-of-this-world dribbling ability finally being met with better decision making in the final third. Jota, meanwhile, has been putting up strong numbers, taking or assisting just under half an expected goal a game. Pedro Neto hasn’t been too far behind in his contributions as the third choice option. It’s not really clear why Wolves felt they needed Podence. Perhaps he is a rotation option. Perhaps they are intending to sell one of the current attackers in the summer and want to give the new man time to bed in. Perhaps they think he is better than the good-for-Greece numbers he’s putting up in our data. Regardless, this one is slightly perplexing in purely footballing terms. 

Where else can you find the likes of Demba Ba and Robinho sitting on one team’s bench? Welcome to the Turkish Süper Lig — the land where old players on crazy salaries parachute in as one of their final stops on the way to retirement and mingle with domestic up and coming stars. It may not be your first destination to watch high-quality football, but if you’re looking for some world-class derby atmospheres, genuine excitement and a 7-way title race, you’re at the right place.

Sivasspor — the surprise package

Global citizens of football who regularly check what’s going on in leagues around the world likely have been wondering what magic touch suddenly turned Sivasspor into a title contender after years of mediocrity. Sivasspor has owned the top spot for a while now, 2 points clear of second-place Başakşehir and 5 points clear of holders Galatasaray. Journeyman manager Rıza Çalımbay is in his 16th (!) spell coaching a side in Süper Lig since starting his career in 2001. Did he finally develop into a top-level coach able to mount a successful title challenge with underdogs? Well, with all due respect, no. Sivasspor is massively overperforming their underlying numbers, scoring 8 goals more than their expected goals and conceding 3.5 less for a staggering 11.5 goals overperformance. Take out half those goals and they're a mid-table side, which is probably where they belong. The gods of mean reversion are already meddling, as Gaziantep ran riot over the weekend, trouncing Sivasspor 5–1 with a handful of low xG shots while Sivasspor missed some sitters. This is not to say they don’t deserve credit. Çalımbay is an above-average reactive coach for Turkey standards, capable of putting together disciplined, gritty sides that love to cause trouble for bigger teams. He masterminded two impressive victories of late against Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş, fielding his left back Ziya Erdal as a left central midfielder in both, successfully disrupting opposition buildup play with intense pressure. However, Çalımbay deserves the most credit for summer signings Mamadou Samassa, Aaron Appindangoyé, Caner Osmanpaşa, Marcelo Goiano, Fernando Andrade (loan) and Mustapha Yatabaré, all impressively joining on a free transfer and becoming first-team regulars (and yes, that is the Süper Lig understanding of "team building"). Add previously underrated legacy players Mert Hakan Yandaş, Emre Kılınç and Hakan Arslan to that mix and Sivasspor have themselves a proper team with impressive physicality and firepower. Let’s start with the goalkeeper. Overperforming non-penalty xG can mean good fortune or bad finishing from opponents, but more often than not it also means a spectacular goalkeeping performance. Those performances, however, can be fickle. Signed from Ligue 2 side Troyes, Mamadou Samassa had the 3rd best shot-stopping performance in the league, conceding 5 goals less than the post-shot xG total of the shots he faced — until the Gaziantep match, where he suddenly and painfully returned to earth. Combine that match with the howler Samassa conceded last week against Rizespor as Sivasspor barely saved a point at the last minute, and what you’re left with is a barely above-average keeper.  Stats have a bad habit of catching up with you. From their attacking radar, Sivasspor looks like one of the better attacking teams in the division. Their traditional, direct style is evident in their league-average GK pass length and high ratio of crosses versus passes into the box. They create many chances as a result of pressure regains, which is one of the key differentiators that helped them reach the top. The defensive radar, on the other hand, is one of a mid-table side — Sivasspor should really pray that Samassa keeps it up. Sivasspor’s attackers are overperforming heavily with 8 goals more than their expected goals, but at least their goals are distributed nicely — Yatabaré has 8, Kılınç has 6, Fernando and Arslan have 5, and three others have 4 each. We don’t have Süper Lig data before this season, but this is Yatabaré’s fifth in Turkey and the 34-year-old striker never scored more than 6 goals in a season. That source might dry up soon for Sivasspor.  Mert Hakan Yandaş is the one grabbing most of the headlines lately with a place in Turkey’s EURO 2020 squad becoming a real possibility — he’s an all-round, hard-working offensive midfielder who does a bit of everything and is slightly above average at it all, as seen in his radar. He pretty much enjoys a free role as the main creative outlet of the side. His starting position varies between a #8 and a #10. From there, he often ends up where the ball is and dictates play in the offensive areas. He should be regarded as an offensive midfielder, but his deep progressions also look impressive at 7 per game (79th percentile among midfielders), considering his starting position is often higher up the pitch. Perhaps a little early to jump on the hype train, but the potential is there to flourish in a better team. All in all, a total xG overperformance of 11.5 goals is way too much, even after the weekend’s match, and Sivasspor fans should enjoy the top while it lasts, as they most likely won’t win the league. As is the issue with many reactive overachieving underdogs, more and more teams are sitting deeper and playing cautious against Sivasspor, and the side looks short of ideas when they have possession that, in essence, they don’t want. Who’ll win it then? Let’s take a look at the underlying numbers of the league. Well, if any underdog is going to win Süper Lig this year, that is more likely to be the Papiss Cissé-led Alanyaspor. Coached by 44-year-old Germany born Erol Bulut who grabbed attention in his previous spell at Yeni Malatyaspor as well, Alanyaspor has excellent underlying numbers and look a viable dark horse trailing just three points behind the Sivasspor hype. And Newcastle fans — Papiss Cissé is still quite good. Then we have Fenerbahçe, who have the best underlying numbers after Alanyaspor and looked the favorites after beating Başakşehir 2-0 last week, but an unlucky loss this weekend at Trabzonspor sent them back to 5th. Still, they should be regarded as one of the main candidates to win the title. Fenerbahçe is the most dominant side in the league, suffocating opponents in their own half with a lot of possession and counter pressure, but often suffer from poor execution in the final third.  Except Vedat Muriqi, of course. The gigantesque figure of the Kosovan striker has been a nightmare to deal with for Süper Lig defenders all season. Muriqi’s all-round game has been excellent — he barely loses an aerial duel, links up play very well, moves intelligently and finishes chances. Contrary to what Galatasaray fans initially thought, losing the Muriqi bidding war really did move the needle towards Fenerbahçe this season, despite their club signing Falcao. It's not quite correct to say there's nothing tactically interesting going on in this league, it’s just that Turkish media haven't really figured it out yet. Fatih Terim is on course to launch yet another Galatasaray comeback following a dreadful first half of the season with a significant tactical shift not often seen at Süper Lig level. Nicknamed “the Emperor,” Terim is by far the highest-profile coach in Turkey, having won the UEFA Cup with Galatasaray in 2000, followed by brief stints at Milan and Fiorentina. He’s responsible for 8 out of Galatasaray's 22 league titles, which is pretty crazy if you think about it. After a dismal first half of the season plagued by injuries, late returns from the Africa Cup of Nations and last-minute loan signings who spent their entire summers on holiday, Terim has been reshuffling his cards since the impressive 5–0 home win against Antalyaspor — by far the best game of the season for the Red and Yellows. Terim came up with a hybrid system, 4-2-3-1 on paper and a 3-5-1-1 in possession, with Mario Lemina strictly positioning himself next to the center backs to form a back three and Jean-Michael Seri acting as a regista in front of the trio. Fullbacks pushed high, wide players Ömer Bayram and Sofiane Feghouli tucked in and all of a sudden Galatasaray ended up with a setup looking dangerously good on a late December night, demolishing Antalyaspor by the largest xG margin recorded in the league in any game this season.  The 4-2-3-1 out of possession allows Terim to impose his desired high pressure, while the 3-1 compared to the previous 2-1 structure allows his team to build up much more effectively and contain counter-attacks better. This formation was particularly clear in the side's 2-1 victory of Denizlispor. With this formation, Galatasaray have notched three wins on the bounce since, although they played slightly differently against Kayserispor in Lemina’s absence. Whether that will be enough for a comeback remains to be seen, but if any coach in Turkey can pull off a double-digit point comeback two seasons in a row, it’s Fatih Terim. What about Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş? Trabzonspor is carried on the shoulders of Alexander Sørloth, who has a strong shout for Player of the Season in Süper Lig, much to the frustration for the fans of offensively troubled Crystal Palace. Trabzonspor’s firing of Ünal Karaman baffled many in Turkey since they looked like title contenders, but their defensive underlying numbers wouldn’t prove strong enough over the course of an entire season anyway. It would be wishful thinking to think the inexperienced former player Hüseyin Çimşir could pull a rabbit out of this hat, despite beating Fenerbahçe and moving only 3 points behind Sivasspor with a game in hand. Beşiktaş also parted ways with their coach Abdullah Avcı just last week after a cup defeat to Erzurumspor. Avcı has been regarded as one of the best coaches in Turkey the past few years, transforming Başakşehir into serious title contenders from scratch. However, he found his Guardiola-inspired possession style largely impossible to impose on the Beşiktaş squad he was handed, and stayed barely alive with a series of unconvincing wins before the season collapsed on him. It would be unrealistic to expect anything from Beşiktaş, and their newly hired former player Sergen Yalçın, to pull off anything of substance. Yet Beşiktaş surprisingly boasts the second-best underlying defensive performance in the league. You know who didn’t help Avcı at all with all this? Yes — Loris Karius it is. Finally, Başakşehir. The team are also looking like strong title contenders for the fourth year in a row. Former Inter player Okan Buruk has the luxury of having Robinho and Demba Ba as impact subs at Başakşehir, the “noisy neighbors” of the Istanbul giants — they had backing from government but also grew organically by trusting the process under Abdullah Avcı, transforming from an underdog playing transition football into a side that completely dominates games with 60% or more possession. Okan Buruk took them back into a side that’s largely threatening through transitions and particularly impressed by beating Gladbach away to progress from their Europa League group. Their brand of football isn’t anything special, but their right winger is. Edin Visca is tearing apart the Süper Lig yet again, and he’s probably one of the most consistent performers in all of Europe. The Süper Lig is brewing up a title showdown with multiple contenders. Current leaders Sivasspor are very unlikely to win it. Instead, in the end the race looks likely to involve bitter rivals Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe, an exciting showdown that hasn't been seen often lately. Fenerbahçe – Galatasaray on February 23 could be a proper momentum decider. Fenerbahçe’s loss to Trabzonspor moved Galatasaray within a point, and they host Alanyaspor in the next matchday, while Galatasaray have relatively easy fixtures ahead before traveling to the Asian side of Istanbul for the Intercontinental Derby, an absolute much watch. For now, in terms of underlying performances, Fenerbahçe, Başakşehir and Alanyaspor look strong enough to fight for the top spot, but don’t rule out holders Galatasaray — Terim’s formation change might have a “Conte effect” on Süper Lig teams.