Author: Mohamed Mohamed

There are multiple ways that one could analyze the failings of Manchester United over the past six to seven years. Whether it's the rotating cast of managers or the lack of direction in player recruitment, Manchester United have operated at a level that’s nowhere close to optimal efficiency given the incredible resources at their disposal.

One area that shows a lack of forethought in their planning is the number of individuals who have played minutes as a right-back during this down period for the club. That list includes Rafael, Antonio Valencia, Matteo Darmian, and Ashley Young. The lack of a very good-great RB whose could hold his own at the highest level has been one of several reasons why Manchester United have been stuck in the wilderness for the greater part of the past decade.

There’s little doubt that Aaron Wan-Bissaka had a great individual season and ranked as one of the best fullbacks in the Premier League. It’s very likely that he was the best defender from the fullback position, and was a major reason why Crystal Palace once again held their head comfortably above the relegation waters. Many of the plaudits he’s been given for his performances last season are deserved, and it’s mightily impressive that he did that at his age.

So it’s been no surprise to see him being heavily linked with Manchester United given their long standing hole at RB. On the face of it, it’s not hard to put two and two together to make four: Wan-Bissaka is good, United have needed a long-term right back for ages, and he’s English. Sure, the reported transfer fee that could land as high as £50 million is a large figure, but United would rationalize it by this move being one that represents both present and future value.

Well it’s not quite as straightforward as that. While Wan-Bissaka is undoubtedly a talented defender with a bright future, it’s fair to wonder whether it’s smart of United to spend so much money for his services given the questions that surround him on the attacking end. Manchester United’s end goal as a club is to get back to being a very good, maybe evengreat team, and envisioning the next good United side would involve concocting a squad that will be able to dictate play in possession with regularity. Doing so would involve have minimal weak links during ball progression. This is especially true with fullbacks given that they have a major part to play in creating chances as auxiliary wingers.

That’s the issue that surrounds Wan-Bissaka. Very few are questioning whether his defensive capabilities will translate at a bigger club, because he’s shown enough this season to suggest that’s a rather safe bet.

Rather, will he be able to exist as a functional cog in the wheel offensively?

Furthermore, just how good is Wan-Bissaka currently offensively?

Is there enough upside that he could grow into a net positive as a play-driver?

These are some of the questions to ask when evaluating Wan-Bissaka as a talent, and whether it’s a smart idea for United to allocate major resources (not just the transfer fee but wages as well) towards him. Certainly, that mystery on Wan-Bissaka's offensive ceiling is in part due to playing on a decent but unspectacular attacking side in Crystal Palace last season. They ranked 12th in expected goals from open play and 8th in shots. If he had played on a more expansive attack, perhaps we would've had more of an idea on his upside as a play-driver.

If one was to concoct an argument in favor of Wan-Bissaka's offensive ceiling, a major component would be his dribbling abilities and the luxuries it affords him that not a lot of fullbacks possess. As part of the responsibilities that modern day fullbacks have, being able to beat their marker off the dribble in the middle and final third has become much more of a necessity. Wan-Bissaka certainly has that in his skill-set, his 2.01 dribbles per 90 is nearly three times the league average rate for fullbacks in the Premier League, and his dribbling map below shows a very healthy amount of dribbles into more advanced areas along with the actions that followed.

The ease with which Wan-Bissaka can get himself out of tight situations on the flanks is quite remarkable. He could use his dribbling as an escape valve to merely continue recycling possession to a nearby teammate, or cover ground once he gains separation from his marker and progress play. As the ball is slowly moving towards his vicinity, he's great at being able to quickly shift the ball from one foot and making his marker miss. He's also able to use misdirection through body feints and quick changes of direction when he's luring his opponent into a false sense of security before hitting the afterburners. He's also quite good at general ball carrying duties.

When Wan-Bissaka is able to leverage his dribbling into more impact plays post-dribble he's at his best and displays the kind of offensive upside you would want from a high priced fullback. Though, admittedly, he's still at the beginning stages of combining high level dribbling with passing so he shows brief flashes rather than anything sustained. In terms of his passing in isolation, it would be a stretch to call him a dynamic passer or perhaps even a good one.

Rather, he's shown more to have a baseline of functionality in the passes he can make. The most complex pass he has in his repertoire are little reverse/lead passes into the right wing area near the box so teammates can then launch balls into the box, which is nice but not necessarily the most value-added type of pass to have in your arsenal given that the end result are crosses.

While I believe that there's a functional level to his passing, there are moments where Wan-Bissaka shows discomfort on-ball when trying to make decisions, especially when attempting to make dangerous passes as he doesn't quite have the touch to connect on them. There are also times when he opts for conservatism over something grander. He can look indecisive and give opponents an opportunity to seize on him telegraphing his passes and create turnovers in play. His abilities as a crosser and chance creator to this point are nothing much to write home about, though how much of it is due to system constraints and surrounding talent is up for debate. Wan-Bissaka's passing to this point is somewhere between average to below-average.

There's one play in particular that I go back to when evaluating Wan-Bissaka's ability to drive play and some of the surrounding skepticism. As Wan-Bissaka is carrying the ball towards the final third, Cheikhou Kouyate is making a looping run to his right and there's the slight opening to make a pass into the right wide area of the box. Instead, Wan-Bissaka shifts the ball to the wings, which eventually leads to a corner and represents a missed opportunity at something greater. Now, the slip pass into the right side of the box is not an easy play to pull off and there's no guarantee that a successful pass would lead to something grand, but paying £45-50 million for a fullback would come with the expectations that these opportunities to help create scoring chances would not be left on the table.

Manchester United potentially spending up to £50 million on Wan-Bissaka represents a bet on him eventually becoming one of the better fullbacks in the world two to three years from now. For that to occur, his offensive value will have to get to a high enough level through ironing out some of the kinks. Given how good he projects to be defensively over the next few years, it might be that he merely needs to be a slight net-positive offensively rather than an no-doubt stud in attack.

It's not impossible to imagine that being the case for Wan-Bissaka: his dribbling abilities are outstanding and that alone brings value. His passing isn't a lost cause, though it's not a strength yet. The hope is that his dribbling abilities continue to translate and create passing opportunities for him that it wouldn't exist for others, and with more reps in advanced areas as well as playing with talented teammates at United, he becomes a better offensive player.

That version of Wan-Bissaka would be more than worth the high price tag that United will reportedly paid for his services. The more pessimistic angle would be that Wan-Bissaka's passing never appreciably develops from its current state, and as a result, his game doesn't quite scale up to the highest level of competition and makes him less of an asset.

One question that could be asked regarding this move is whether United would've been better off going with another option. Perhaps that would've been trusting Diego Dalot with a starting position with Ashley Young and Matteo Darmian providing backup. Maybe United could've gone for a considerably cheaper option in the market instead of Wan-Bissaka and split duties between that player and Dalot.

Those are fair critiques when accounting for the holes that exist in United's midfield, especially if Paul Pogba departs this summer. Getting Aaron Wan-Bissaka at his reported price is a gamble on some level and doesn't necessarily represent the cleanest approach to squad building, but one that could still pay major dividends if he grows into an all around force once he approaches his prime.

The swap deal last summer that saw Radja Nainggolan move from Roma to Inter, with Nicolo Zaniolo and Davide Santon (along with piles of cash) going the other way, is the type of transaction that will remain fascinating for years to come. Players with the type of stature that Nainggolan has, who move from one Champions League side to another, will generate a certain amount of fanfare.

Only focusing on Nainggolan’s involvement in the deal is intriguing enough, as Roma likely did a good job in timing the transfer given that Nainggolan was 30 years old and was susceptible to the aging process that many players around that age suffer. To this point, Nainggolan has had a decent season with a 0.42 scoring contribution (goals + assists) per 90 rate, but you rather be one year early than one year late with older players (especially someone like Nainggolan with questions surrounding his conditioning).

It’s Nicolo Zaniolo who has made that deal go from a mildly curious transaction, to one that has Roma fans jumping for joy and Inter fans looking over with envy. Fans take notice whenever young players show some signs of breaking out, and Zaniolo is no exception. Young attackers who show enough in their debut season to suggest they already belong against grown men are often positive indicators for their future in themselves (Marcus Rashford in 2015–16 as an example), and given Zaniolo’s decent shot volume + xG contribution, stardom may well be his long term outcome down the line.

However, there are some who aren’t convinced that Zaniolo has star-level upside to his game, specifically that his passing lacks a forward emphasis. These are fair criticisms and they put a strain both individually and on a team context. For the team, it means that you’re having to manoeuvre the squad with an extra constraint to work with. From an individual standpoint, it means that Zaniolo will have to be close to special in other areas to compensate for deficiencies elsewhere.

He can be quite conservative with his pass selection and has a tendency to recycle possession when opportunities arise for him to be more daring and attempt difficult passes. Even for the best attackers, it’s unfair to suggest that they complete these passes with great regularity, but you would hope that at times, at least they would attempt the pass.

With young players in particular, there’s greater leniency in terms of execution on home-run passes, but it’s important that they have the awareness to see these situations. Recycling the ball to a teammate is not the worst thing as a outcome, but you’re leaving potential value on the table by constantly opting for the safe option rather than trying to find something more advantageous. What makes this even weirder is that Zaniolo doesn’t necessarily have bad touch with his passes, so perhaps an optimist would say that with better coaching he could be coaxed into spreading his wings with his passing.

Where else does Zaniolo contribute?  While he’s good in other aspects to his game beyond passing, it’s hard to say that he’s elite in any of them. His recognition off-ball is solid for a 19 year old. He can sense space that he can attack into with the hope of gaining the ball for shooting opportunities. The problem is that while he’s got the instincts, he doesn’t have elite speed off-ball to truly wreck teams with his runs and be a dynamic threat. To this point it hasn’t been a problem in Serie A, in part because of the different style of play that the league has, but I’m more hesitant to say that he’d be able to attack space in the same manner in other leagues.

Zaniolo’s dribbling is probably his best asset as a player, but not necessarily in the manner that you would think. His dribbling is quite impressive in congested areas whether he’s closer to the center of the pitch or hugging the touchline. He’s got impressive balance and guile in manoeuvring tight areas to execute dribbling sequences and evading multiple defenders. Given that he’s just over 6 feet tall, he can also use his size in certain situations to hold up play and seal his opponents, along with the ability to not get nudged off the ball as easily as others.

These traits have been valuable to Roma because he’s been able to keep possessions alive in situations where others would be more susceptible to dispossession. Where it’s fair to have some skepticism is that with his lack of elite burst, Zaniolo has a harder time using his dribbling abilities to unlock defenses during 1v1 situations higher up the pitch for shot opportunities in the same manner that players like Jadon Sancho or Leon Bailey (last season) have shown.

Analysis on Zaniolo should be grounded with the knowledge that this is his age 19 season, so in theory, he’s got a handful of years before he reaches the beginning of his prime. It could very well be that the current flaws in his game get ironed out by the time he gets to age 22–23, which would raise his value by an appreciable amount. As well, that in his debut season he’s putting up roughly league average shot metrics should allow for some level of optimism.

Yet it’s hard not to be skeptical of certain parts of Zaniolo’s game in the present. He’s not an overwhelming athlete, which wouldn’t be a major problem if he was a good to great passer, but to this point it’s hard to make that case. If you envision him moving forward as more of a conventional #10, the tunnel vision he exhibits is worrisome. If you envision him as a wide player, his conservative pass selection is slightly less of a concern but you’re still dealing with the worries regarding his athleticism.

While it’s entirely possible that Zaniolo gains greater awareness when in possession through more reps, along with having incremental athletic growth, if that doesn’t happen it will make it hard to see him in a great team as a key figure. Maybe with his size and ability to hold off opponents, there’s the slight chance that he’s able to transition into more of a striker as he gets closer to his prime years, which would change the equation and would make most of these points moot. As a more conventional attacking midfielder/winger, you’d almost have to compensate his lack of passing value by having close to exceptional passers elsewhere if he doesn’t improve, which isn’t impossible but given that Roma aren’t ludicrously flushed with cash, it’d certainly be a hard task.

The good news is that Roma are a long way away from having to worry about how Zaniolo would fit on a title contender, so this is the type of conversation that can wait for another day. Roma’s squad is an odd one: they’ve tried to simultaneously build a quality side that can compete in the present with numerous veteran players (Dzeko/Kolarov/Nzonzi/Florenzi), while covering their bases with young players that can both contribute in the present and have future upside (Kluivert/Schick/Pellegrini/Under). The arrangement hasn’t quite worked out yet, but the young players by and large have ably performed which is encouraging for the future outlook of the club.

It’s not hard to construct an argument that Nicolo Zaniolo is a solid prospect. One could take the optimist viewpoint and believe that with a more innovative coach at the helm, the concerns about his passing would dissipate and make it easier to project future stardom. To some extent, I am sympathetic to this argument given the effects that coaching can have on young attacking talent. Zaniolo is a fun example of thinking about young talents and their ceiling outcomes as a player, but as it stands now, there's reason to be hesitant about the hype that's surrounded his maiden voyage in Serie A.

For a club that hasn’t finished with more than 50 points in a season since 2012–13, Toulouse have given minutes to some interesting young talents over the years. Serge Aurier was a highly promising defender with his combination of athleticism and ability on the ball before his move to PSG in 2014. Issa Diop was logging huge minutes as a center-back when he was only 18 years, and while there were (and still are) questions about his ability as a passer, it was clear that he was going to make a move to a bigger club sooner than later. He's now at West Ham. Alban Lafont had even more hype. He was thought of by some as a goalkeeping prodigy when he started for Toulouse at just 16 years old. The fact all three of these players plied their trade at Toulouse emphasizes Ligue 1’s greatest selling point. No matter how far down the table you go, you’re going to find young talents that peak your curiosity.

All of that brings us to Ibrahim Sangaré, who’s going to be next on the list of intriguing talents from Toulouse to make a move to a bigger club. Sangare already has a reputation as someone who could be a high upside bet from France worth targeting in the near future, and the likes of Atalanta and Brighton & Hove Albion reportedly logged transfer offers during the summer for his services. Sangare‘s improved performances this season in a deeper role (before his toe injury halted his momentum) turned him from a niche Ligue 1 prospect into one who's likely heading to greener pastures in the near future.

It should be noted that Toulouse have been one of the worst teams in Ligue 1. They’ve been out shot by nearly eight shots per match (9.5 to 17.4), no other team in Ligue 1 comes close to having such a disparity in shot share from either the positive or negative end of the spectrum. Toulouse are in the bottom three in expected goal difference per match at -0.57. The fact that this team is four points above 18th place despite being out shot and out created to such a massive degree is a bit of a minor miracle. Having an anemic attack with a defense that’s constantly on their heels means that analyzing Sangare means taking some of his numbers and properly contextualizing them. His on-ball contribution, for example, is stymied be the relatively low likelihood of racking up deep progressions for a team that rarely had the ball.

More than anything, we’re looking to see if there have been enough moments to justify a bigger club allocating resources for a potential transfer in the future. Is Sangare good enough that, if you put him on a team with a higher collective talent base, he won't take things off the table and perhaps even add some delectable dishes of his own. The biggest question is Sangare’s passing acumen. The standard of passing needed at the midfield position for good to great clubs is quite high. If Sangare’s going to truly pop as a young talent, he’ll need, at the very least, to be slightly above average as a passer and possibly significantly better than that.

The good news is that Sangare has shown enough glimpses to suggest that he's already a decent passer with room for upside in the near future. As a deeper midfielder in Toulouse's double pivot, he'll often times come and collect the ball near the center backs, even forming a back three on occasion. If there's no immediate pressure, Sangare has no qualms dribbling the ball forward until he gets approached by a marker. There are a couple of things that I appreciate about Sangare: more times than not he's going to try and attempt a pass that bypasses the defensive structure of the opponent, and that he doesn't seem to stutter with his passing when he makes his mind up. There's no proverbial hitch in Sangare's passing golf swing.

His match against Monaco was probably the best example of Sangare's upside as a deep midfielder. Granted, Monaco haven't been good this season, so it's not as if he was playing against elite opposition, but he was totally in his element making short-ish passes that found teammates in space between the lines. None of these passes were super difficult, but the fact he was making them with regularity was noteworthy.

Sangare isn't a game-breaking caliber of passer as it stands now, which is fine considering that he's only 20 years old. He's shown flashes of being able to make really difficult passes on the move, and the fact that he has the awareness to at least attempt them means something. It's just that his hit rate on these type of passes is not quite good enough yet. Perhaps in a couple of years as he matures and gets even more game experience under his belt, he'll become better in this department, which would be a scary proposition. A man at his size that could combine athleticism with a feathery touch in the passing department would eat people alive.

It is hard to ignore that Sangare is a large human being, standing at around 6'3. That becomes even more apparent when he decides to take on players and dribble by them. For a player as tall as he is, he doesn't look clumsy when he tries to beat his man off the dribble. He has pretty good coordination on the ball even when he's pressured. There are times when Sangare bites off a little more than he can chew and loses possession in the middle third, but it's fun watching him rumble. On the play below, Sangare has the ball near the touchlines and is being pressured quickly, but a simple shift to his right and he's gone.

He's even broken some ankles with his change of direction.

It's a little harder to figure out how good of a defender Sangare is, in part because quantifying defense is hard and he plays on a team that bleeds shots and scoring chances. A lot of his defensive work, whether it's pressures or tackles and interceptions, comes in his own third while Toulouse are hemmed in. Sangare's defensive output even when adjusting for Toulouse being a sub 50% possession side is impressive, and I just come back to the fact that the guy is just an imposing figure who also happens to have really solid mobility, which should allow clubs that play possession based football options on how to best use Sangare defensively once they lose the ball. Here, he is mirroring Allan Saint-Maximin, one of the most athletically gifted wide players that Ligue 1 has seen over the years, step for step before he dispossesses the ball from him. That's no easy feat.

There are a number of things to like about Sangare's game. He's a comfortable passer from deeper areas who has at least shown the willingness to try high level passes. He's an imposing figure because of his size and functional athleticism, and he's able to carry the ball off the dribble because it's really hard to take the ball away from a 6'3 dude who isn't a stiff. There are the flaws to his game that I've already touched on, and one major one that I haven't. His positioning off the ball in attack can leave a little bit to be desired. When a teammate has the ball, he'll get into a position between the man on the ball and another teammate close to him which eliminates a potential passing angle. He could also stand to be a bit more aggressive sometimes in stepping out 5-7 yards from his original starting point to receive passes and move the ball forward when in his own third. But it's fair to point out that Toulouse's attack stinks, and that most of these tendencies could very well be eliminated if he plays on a team with better talent and coaching.

When trying to project how good Sangare can be, I came back to Andre Zambo Anguissa. Granted, Anguissa has had his rough moments at Fulham from a defensive standpoint (who hasn't on that club), but he was really good last season on a very good Marseille side. On a team with Florian Thauvin, Dimitri Payet and Morgan Sanson, Anguissa wasn't tasked with having to unlock defenses. Rather, he could just maintain the flow of possession, and make short but incisive passes to one of the attackers to work their magic. It's easy to see that Sangare could operate in a similar role when he makes the step up to a bigger club, and do what Anguissa did defensively which was putting out fires immediately off of live ball turnovers. There's even a little bit of similarities from their respective statistical outputs, which is impressive on Sangare's end considering he's on an inferior squad and is over two years younger than Anguissa.

I am on the Ibrahim Sangare bandwagon. I just think that there's legitimate untapped potential to his game that could see him go to another level. If he's able to hone in on his passing, he could play on a very good club in the next 2-3 years. Even if Sangare doesn't make an appreciable jump in performance and this is more or less what he is throughout the next 6-8 years, he's still shown enough to where I'd feel comfortable having him on decent-good teams like Marseille or RB Leipzig in a supporting role offensively. The 90th percentile outcome for Ibrahim Sangare as a player is tantalizing enough to where I am really fascinated with his development and just how many souls he can destroy on his path to potential greatness.

Ligue 1 has been home to some fascinating attacking units over the past few years. Set aside the death star known as PSG and there's still the Marseille team from 2014–15 that produced 2.0 goal per game, an average that was only bettered within the big five leagues by 5 teams that season. And, of course, there was the 2016–17 Monaco side that scored 107 league goals, one of the great one season outliers in recent memory.

Last season Lyon piled up 87 goals and a 2.29 goals per game rate, a rate bettered by only six teams. It’s no surprise that a team featuring Nabil Fekir, Memphis Depay, and Bertrand Traore would be able to put up a fair number of goals. Each of these players are extremely talented in their own ways, and their combined speed turned lots of broken sequences into shooting opportunities. They made Lyon a team with a good blend of shot volume, locations. That. combined with some blessing from the variance gods allowed them to lay waste to most opponent in their way.

While it was highly unlikely that Lyon would rise to the same heights as last season, this was a really fun team that had healthy numbers in attack even if you strip out the variance that they benefited from. The fact that they brought back the majority of their core talent along with the same manager should’ve meant that business would go on as usual, but so far this season things haven't been quite that smooth. Lyon are on pace for around 63 goals, which would be a pretty solid goal total but not quite as awe inspiring as last season. The team has also change tactically; through their first few games this season they've doubled down on shot volume at the expense of shot locations. That's an interesting quirk given that football over the past few years has generally become smarter with teams looking to take better, higher percentage shots.

It gets even more stark when looking at their distribution of shots from last season versus this season in open play. Lyon shot a lot last season, but their shot locations on average were good enough to more than tilt the numbers in their favor. What’s gone on this season is that the balance between shot volume and locations has been off as they’ve settled for a lot of bad shots, with over 60% of their shots having an expected goal output of 0.05 or less.

Even with their attacking success last season, there’s always been a feeling that Lyon win more with their massive amounts of talent rather than a detailed approach in possession, that they’re a younger and more athletic version of Arsenal during Arsene Wenger’s later years right down to having similar structural problems. It’s not the worst thing in the world to be a team with loads of attacking talent that freelances. Over the course of a season you’ll still be able to cobble something worthwhile offensively by having ample firepower, but it can leave you susceptible to weird stretches like what Lyon have gone through so far this year.

A major theme with Lyon when building attacks is that there always seems to be noticeable gaps that exist during buildup. In general, Lyon have a hard time gaining access to the middle as and they settle for circulating the ball across their back line to a fullback. This gets amplified when only one midfielder comes back to receive the ball, which makes it easier for the opposition to defend by having a lone forward up top positioning himself to block passing lanes. This sequence against Caen is an example of the problems that Lyon has with presenting passing options for the man on the ball. Multiple times the player who receives the pass has no option to pass it in between the line and has to pass it either horizontally or backwards. With no forward options, Caen's defense sniffs that play out and forces a throw in.

Those noticeable gaps occur higher up the pitch as well. When Lyon try to create overloads and triangles on the pitch, they don't do it particularly well. Their attempts at trying to distort the opposition can sometimes even lead to numerical disadvantages leaving them facing four defends with only three attackers trying to play through or something to that effect. The players will be stationed in something of a circle when they have possession of the ball, with no one being in the middle to help connect play. Lyon’s tendency to have their front line be on the shoulders of the opposition back line and try to find openings amplifies the problem and creates a disconnect between the man on the ball and the players making runs in behind the defense.

Another issue with Lyon is that they'll often have odd player alignments. When the ball is near the flanks, they'll have multiple players occupying the same space which doesn't really do much to confuse the opposition. In particular, at least once or twice times a game, a Lyon player will end up with the ball and two of his teammates are positioned in a straight line. Without the proper spacing needed, it's hard to build successful attacks as passing options become limited as attackers get in the way of each other.

Lacking proper structure, Lyon will often try to switch up the play to get one of their wide players isolated against a defender. This isn’t the worst backup plan. Having someone like Traore sizing up most fullbacks in Ligue 1 is something you don’t mind trying. Lyon have been able to spring him free on the right wing for advantageous scenarios and create something worthwhile. His production so far this season has been noteworthy despite the structural problems of the team around him. It's actually a credit to the talent base that Lyon have built up over the past few years that even with some noticeable deficiencies in their gameplan, they've still got enough to produce offensively.

What's impressive about Lyon is that they have a really good blend of athleticism and passing skills across numerous positions, which makes it possible to freelance and create eye pleasing goals. Their performance against Marseille over the weekend was illustrative of just how overpowering their collective talent level can be. Sometimes the spacing being all messed up just doesn't matter.

All of this paints a picture of a team that has to work harder than it perhaps should to generate good looks, which can make it a bit annoying for some considering that Lyon have a ludicrous amount of talent to work with. Through their ability to manufacture star talents from their famous academy along with smart player acquisition, Lyon have created a squad that can hold its own with a lot of clubs in Europe. It’s just that when they have to play as a possession side against an opponent that’s willing to suck up pressure, the lack of a gameplan can be exposed. For all the good things that can be said about Bruno Genesio as a coach, including his willingness to put faith in the young talents coming through the academy, Lyon having problems during possession has not been a new criticism that people have levied against him.

In the grand scheme of things Lyon should largely be fine, at least within Ligue 1. Despite the surprising starts that teams like Lille and Montpellier have had this season, Lyon are probably not in much danger of missing out on qualifying for the Champions League. It should also be acknowledge that we're dealing with a small sample size, a small enough total to where volatility in the numbers is a real thing. But these issues that Lyon are dealing with aren't new and have been bubbling under the surface for quite awhile now. Maybe it won't matter and by the latter stages of the season Lyon's league numbers will bounce back to a healthier place place of their own accord. But this is a team could truly be something special if they were able to fix some of the structural problems they have in place, but as more times passes and the same problems remain, it becomes more reasonable to wonder if Genesio is the man to do it.

There wasn’t much doubt that Jean Michaël Seri would leave OGC Nice this summer. The club failing to qualify for European football, a year after finishing third in 2016–17. On a team level, it was hard for Nice to duplicate that kind of success. They’re fighting upstream in resources available to them, and their statistical profile in 16-17 wasn’t what you would expect from a top three side in France. Seri’s performance this past season weren’t quite up to the standards that he showed during that special season when he was one of the best players in the league, but he was still solidly above average.

All of that should’ve equated to a fairly robust market for Seri’s services, and yet it was a promoted side in Fulham that ended up with a player that frankly could’ve played for clubs that had Champions League football to look forward to in 2018-19. It’s a genuine coup for Fulham that they were able to snag someone of Seri’s quality, and offers further proof as to the sheer financial power that the PL operates at where a newly promoted club could get a player that would help almost every club in the league.

If we assume that Slaviša Jokanović continues to have Fulham operate in a similar manner that they did at the Championship, a possession-based system that produced the second highest goals in the league, tied for third in shots and second in open play shots, Seri will be a solid acquisition considering his experiences with Nice. Seri’s style of play should help Fulham’s transition into the PL as he should project as an upgrade over what they already have in the midfield department.

What made Seri such a hot name, particularly after 2016-17, was his quality as a passer. He’s someone who can break defensive lines with regularity, and not even look like he’s breaking a sweat while doing so. He’s such a good passer during buildup play and in the middle third that even if he only tops out at producing 6-8 non-penalty goals + assists over 2500+ minutes, he’ll still be an asset because he’s very helpful in getting from one zone to another before even approaching the final third. The versatility in his passing range is legitimate, and it doesn’t feel as if the ball gets stuck to his feet for longer than it should. It’s in and out in no time.

In addition to his work on the ball, he’s helpful with his off-ball movements. Sometimes, he’d be the deepest of Nice’s three-man midfield, supporting the center backs, and other times he’ll run into space further up the pitch in more dangerous areas. When he was further back, Seri helped in combination play and creating overloads so there would be an open player in proximity who could receive a pass and dribble forwards, with Adrien Tameze's mobility in particular helping with the ball carrier duties if he was the one open for the pass. Seri’s very intelligent in general when it came to finding enough space to where he can receive the ball and make his next move.

One way that I think Seri could fit in well would be incorporating plays like this to help get him into advance areas so he can work his magic. At times Fulham will have their wingers, particularly Ryan Sessegnon, come inwards while the fullbacks maintain the width. This could allow for quick combination play that allows Seri to dribble the ball into the final third uninterrupted if an opponent is sticking close to Sessegnon. Seri isn’t an amazing dribbler and he doesn't possess an elite level burst, but he’s got enough mobility to have him progress play in this manner.

If Fulham continue with having Sessegnon play more of his minutes as an attacking player versus at fullback, he'll benefit from how Seri can help get him the ball in advantageous scenarios. While many people have been excited with Sessegnon’s speed and overall athletic gifts, he also has a very good understanding of when to migrate into the penalty area to be at the receiving end of cutbacks or just scooping up the loose ball for a shooting opportunity. It’s why his shooting locations last season were so pristine for a 17-year-old attacking player. Having a midfielder behind him who is a quality passer should help with the step-up in competition, as Seri’s presence was one reason why someone like Alassane Plea turned into a solid goal scorer and shot taker over the past two seasons at Nice. Alexsander Mitrovic should also be someone that benefits for Seri's presence if he returns to Fulham, as he'll have someone who can set him up well whenever he tries to seal off his defender in the final third for layoffs or creating his own shooting opportunities.

It’s hard to see too much fault with the thinking behind Fulham’s move to get Jean Michaël Seri. Of all the teams who realistically had a shot of acquiring him, you could argue that someone like Fulham benefit the most from getting prime aged talents of Seri's caliber. With the ridiculous amount of money that’s available in the Premier League, just staying up is so financially viable for teams that it's worth it for them to push their chips on a singular talent they believe is good enough to make a difference. If Seri had gone to Arsenal for example, he certainly would've helped but it's unclear how much he would've truly pushed the needle, and he would've been another player added to the long list of guys they have who are either nearing the end of their prime years or already past it.  Seri's presence at Fulham, on the other hand, should swing the percentages in a more meaningful way in terms of avoiding relegation.

Seri’s move to Fulham is reminiscent of Dimitri Payet’s transfer from Marseille to West Ham in 2015. Payet was 28 years old and had come off what was the best season of his career up to that point. He was one of the best players in Ligue 1 during 2014–15, but Marseille missing out on the Champions League meant that they had to sell him at a discount. Marseille’s loss was West Ham’s gain and Payet helped them to their best season in nearly two decades. Of course, Payet left soon after in a blaze of glory, but he did help West Ham pocket two seasons of that delicious PL TV money while the club turned a profit on Payet’s return to Marseille.

You can see how something similar could apply to Seri and Fulham. The club now have a player who most would’ve figured had the talent to play for a Champions League side.  This year will be Seri’s age 27 season so he probably has roughly three seasons left of peak production in him. If perhaps Fulham keep him for two of them while and in the process maintain in the PL, there should be enough interest with Seri at 29 years old to allow them to potentially make a profit on a future transfer given how the football food chain works regarding player movement. They would’ve gotten quality midfield production while not having to worry about a major decline in performance by selling him at the right time.

Seri's move to Fulham has the potential to be one of the more astute signings you'll find from a Premier League club this summer. He's a wonderful passer who should fit in with how Fulham operate in attack in deeper areas. He'll feed their fullbacks when they make blindside runs into open space for potential crossing/cut-back opportunities, as well as directly contribute to some goals as well. His age profile also fits well with Fulham's objective of maintaining Premier League survival, and he should still carry re-sale value if Fulham are cognizant of the general aging curve and when it's time to sell. If things go according to plan, Seri and Fulham will probably be a short but fruitful marriage for both club and player.

Header image courtesy of the Press Association

The World Cup is here, and with that comes those glorious couple of weeks to kick off the tournament where each matchday consists of three to four group stage matches. We’ve already had the defending champs lose their first match, the implementation of VAR, Russia putting up five in the tournament opener, a Cristiano Ronaldo hat-trick, and other delectable goodness from the first five days. Despite only having an average of 2.29 goals per match so far, the 2018 iteration hasn’t been uneventful in the least, so let’s dive into some of what's already gone on in Russia.

England's Corner Kick Routines

England were very good for large parts of the first half against Tunisia and on the whole deserved their 2-1 victory. What was interesting to see in particular was just how much mileage they were getting off of their set piece routines. Over 72% of their 18 shots came from dead ball situations. With the lack of time available for international sides to create the level of sophistication from open play that we see during the domestic football season, one of the best ways to get ahead of the game in international football is dedicating time to developing set piece routines. It seemed clear that Gareth Southgate went over specific corner kick movements which paid huge dividends.

Tunisia started with something resembling a zonal marking approach to defend England's corners, which left England with a four against three opportunity at the top of the 18 yard area. As soon as the corner is delivered, three of the England players, Harry Kane, John Stones, and Jordan Henderson, would sprint in different directions and attract one of the three Tunisia players defending that space. That would leave one of the England players with enough room to rise up and create a headed chance, which was how they engineered their first goal.

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Tunisia changed things up in the second half, matching England's four up top with four of their own. While this did lead to less wide open headed attempts, you still saw the likes of Deli Alli and Harry McGuire muscle their way and create a few half-chances. England's second goal was also from a corner kick routine. and was quite a nice counter to Tunisia man marking the top of the penalty box. Kane was able to peel off his marker and find himself wide open in the six yard area, prime real estate for a high quality chance if someone could win the first header, which McGuire did.

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If England proved anything in their victory over Tunisia, dedicating real time towards set pieces works.

Goncalo Guedes Role as Second Striker

In Portugal’s final tune up match vs Algeria, Goncalo Guedes played as a second striker, a departure from the inverted winger role he was used in at Valencia. It worked to great effect, so much so that his two goals and general ability to create chaos with his speed were enough for him to supplant Andre Silva for the starting spot alongside Cristiano Ronaldo.

Guedes didn’t achieve those same heights against Spain, which is understandable on some level. Going from Algeria to Spain is like going from Glass Joe to Mike Tyson in Mike Tyson’s Punch-Out. He was used as an outlet for counter attacks as Spain weren’t able to counter-press nearly as aggressive as they've been renowned for after losing possession. In one sense, Guedes did his job successfully, with his first touch and subsequent assist for Ronaldo’s second goal being the highlight of his 80 minutes of action. But, he was largely uninspiring on the whole and you couldn’t help but wonder what might’ve been for Portugal had he not had the yips during some of Portugal's promising fast breaks.

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Defensively, it was clear that Guedes was following Ronaldo in Portugal’s 4–4–2 medium block, allowing Sergio Busquets and the Spanish CBs to create 3v2s during buildup play, instead just trying to deny passes into the central areas. This worked fine until Spain shifted into their left sided focus attack which bypassed the central areas and targeted the left half-space in Portugal's own third, to near devastating effects. It'll be interesting to see if Guedes gets another shot at playing that central position or will Fernando Santos instead turn to Andre Silva.

France’s Attacking Struggles

Didier Deschamps hasn’t been immune to criticism with his role as manager of the French national team, especially with the talent boom that’s gone on within French football over the past World Cup cycle. His job is to get the most out of what might be the most talented squad at the World Cup. He has the football equivalent of a Ferrari and has the responsibility of not screwing it up. Meek performances like ones against Australia won’t quiet down the masses who are convinced that Deschamps isn’t good enough to lead France to glory.

France were largely fine for the first 20 minutes or so, highlighted by the half chance from Kylian Mbappe less than two minutes in. Mbappe functioned as the central attacker of the three up front and was finding openings in Australia’s back-line to run into, just without that home-run pass from one of his teammates to really create those top level chances. The main tactical feature of France during buildup is that whenever they play Mbappe along with Ousmane Dembele and Antoine Griezmann, they’re pretty close together and the fullbacks are pushed higher up to provide width while also at times function as an outlet for switches of play.

As the first half wore on, things got worse. France became extremely static during possession. There were less and less dynamic runs being made from the likes of Paul Pogba and Corentin Tolisso. Fullback Benjamin Pavard was being used as an outlet to switch up play but he wasn't interested in trying to take on his individual marker in 1v1s and just recycled possession. France were just slow, compounded by the fact that they weren't even all that interested in trying to create transition opportunities or even applying loads of pressure on Australia's backline when they were circulating the ball during buildup play.

The second half wasn't anymore inspiring, with only moments of individual brilliance from Pogba and a shaky penalty call given by VAR saving France from dropping points against Australia. It's concerning that France picked what was about as close to a maximum fun lineup as possible, and their overall performance was the furthest thing from fun. If not for Germany, this would've been the most disappointing performance from a big nation so far.

Mexico’s Blistering Counter Attacks

You’ll be hard pressed this entire tournament to find a better display of counter attacking football than what Mexico did to Germany, including the splendid goal by burgeoning star Hirving Lozano. Some of this was undoubtedly helped by the fact that Germany played a double pivot of Ton Kroos and Sami Khedira: midfielders that for all their gifts on the ball aren’t exactly blessed with the mobility needed to cover ground defensively.

Germany faced similar problems to Spain, but on a grander scale. Because of the lack of mobility in their midfield along with Khedira’s penchant for migrating forward even when deployed as a #6, it left giant acres of space for Mexico to run into. Joshua Kimmich was bombing up and down the pitch, but that left the entirety of his side unoccupied for Lozano to gather the ball or even just run unopposed, and Kimmich is not fast enough to catch someone like Lozano when spotting him 10 to 15 yards. Combine all of that with a lack of aggression in winning the ball back in higher areas and Mexico having a number of players who are good and fast on the ball, and you get a match that descends into chaos. There were at least 5 instances in the first half alone where Mexico offered the promise of creating a high quality shot during fast break scenarios.

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Lozano was a key figure during these counter attacks, with his starting position usually around the left-half space at the beginning of these sequences, which helped a lot when he was on the ball and facing an unsettled Germany defense. One of his best features during his season at PSV was how much fear he inflicted on opponents with his combination of speed and awareness on how to time his runs off the ball. He would look at the opposing fullback, see when he’s on his blindside and time his run to get in goal for a shooting opportunity, which he did against Germany on multiple occasions.

If Mexico had any shot of finishing first in the group, they had to get something against Germany, and more likely beat them. They smartly pushed all their chips in with an athletic starting XI that tore Germany to bits by applying pressure on the Germans from their own half and immediately getting men forward for the first 45 or so minutes. Though that did slow down as the match progressed, it was still good enough for a massive victory that completely changed the complexion of Group F.

This feels like an annual thing I do with Lyon, where at least one of these type of posts is dedicated to their young starlets. It’s a credit to them that even though they’re having a mildly turbulent season, you can’t help but be excited at the young talent at their disposal. A lot of that is due to them having one of the best youth academies in European football. When the club was in a dire financial situation earlier this decade, they relied on their kids coming through and some of the academy graduates included Alexandre Lacazette, Nabil Fekir, and Corentin Tolisso. Their academy has been ridiculous for quite some time in churning out elite young talents, and they’ve got even more talent coming up with Willem Guebels and Amine Gouiri.

This isn’t to say that Lyon haven’t had their successes in the transfer market as well. The past few windows have netter them Bertrand Traore, Memphis Depay, Mariano, Lucas Tousart; and all of these guys have been successful to varying degrees. Another to add to the list is Tanguy Ndombele, a press resistant midfielder who has made his trademark with galloping runs in the middle of the pitch. Ligue 1 has been home to numerous athletic midfielders of different shades of grey. N’Golo Kante at Caen, Mario Lemina at Marseille, Tiémoué Bakayoko and Geoffrey Kondogbia plying their trades at Monaco, with the former being a key member of their title push in 2017. All of these guys made their name in Ligue 1, and Ndombele’s work within a frantic Lyon side certainly deserves mention alongside them. He’s been a steady ship within Lyon’s midfield, showcasing a tantalizing skill set that could make him in-demand within Europe in the not too distant future.

The first thing you notice with Ndombele is his athleticism. It’s not the only thing he’s working with, and reducing him to merely an athletic midfielder would be doing him a disservice, but it’s clear that he has a higher ceiling because of it. Among the things that Ndombele is great at within open play, his ability to recover a misplaced touch and turn it into a dribble is quite remarkable. He’s got a lot of the tools you want from a modern day zone mover; speed relative to his position, ability to use quick body shifts to shake opponent markers. The numbers more than back up what you see with the eye test. This compilation is around ~2 minutes long, and it could’ve been much longer, his ball carrying library is extensive.

https://streamable.com/3iesv

He’s also quite adept at doing similar things in more advanced positions, using his previously mentioned gifts to shield the ball from his opponent or working within tight confines and trying to create something out of nothing. I don’t think he holds as much value with his dribbling in the final third as he does progressing the ball from deeper areas, but he’s no slouch in this department either.

https://streamable.com/xhjpv

He’s been one of the best central midfielders in the league for progressing the ball this season into the final third area, and that should translate against tougher competition. There’s a high premium for midfielders who can do what Ndombele does consistently, and the fact he’s doing it at age 21 in his first season in Ligue 1 is quite impressive.

What’s perhaps more interesting to untangle is how good of a passer Ndombele is, because it’s all well and good to be a guy who progress play with his dribbling, but being a dual threat with both passing and dribbling is a rare thing to find in young midfielders. I think Ndombele is fine in this department; not necessarily brilliant and perhaps he looks a little clumsy at times, but it’s not a situation where he’s got cinder blocks for feet and the only thing he’s reduced to is simple passes. He can get passes into tight areas, though sometimes he puts a little too much mustard on them and leads to tough first touches for his teammates.

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Ndombele isn’t a prolific chance creator, even if you’re grading him relative to other central midfielders. Both the quality of his chances on average and the volume of chances are fairly ordinary. A not insignificant portion of his created chances logged tend to be where he makes a pass to his teammate, and said teammate dribbles the ball a fair amount before taking a mediocre shot. This could well be a function of playing alongside numerous high usage attacking players in an mishmash system, but he’s not a special creator at his current stage of development.

https://streamable.com/eqmiu

Passing models like him and if push comes to shove, I would trust cold hard data versus the eye test because the eyes can lie, and that might be the case with Ndombele. Even then, I still don't think he would grade better than "solid".

Given that his passing isn’t otherworldly and he’s only taking about one shot per 90 mins of play with the majority of his shots being below average quality, I find it pretty hard to believe that Ndombele is going to be a notable goal contributor. That’s not necessarily a problem when performing other duties to a high level, as Mousa Dembele has proven over the past few years that you could be an insanely valuable player even without direct goal contribution, and perhaps you even get lucky and stumble into a few goals like Abdoulaye Decoure has done with Watford this season.

One thing that I was curious to see defensively was whether Ndombele was a type of midfielder who could turn a defensive action into potential transition opportunities. It would make sense that considering how proficient he is with his dribbling and his overall coordination with the ball and this was the thing that marked out N'Golo Kante even back at Caen. I didn't find nearly as many instances of it happening as I thought I would initially, which isn't a bad thing at all and i'm not sure how much this will translate against tougher competition

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Ndombele is a decent prospect at this stage in his development. Just based on his ability to keep possession and drive play forward with his on-ball skills, he’s already close to being a net positive player. Combine that with his solid passing and defensive work, and what you have is someone who can progress towards being one of the more dynamic midfielders in European football. Considering his penchant for wanting to push the issue with his dribbling, it could be argued that Ndombele with his current skill set would be at his best playing within a three man midfield that would give him license to roam around and cause havoc. Obviously he's worked in a two man midfield for major parts of the season and done it well, so he at least brings positional equity to where he can function in a deeper position if needed.

I like Ndombele and I think he's got a high ceiling as a player. The fact that Lyon got him on a loan-to-buy transfer in the region of £10M is further proof that they generally know what they're doing in the transfer market, and Ndombele has transitioned from looking like a percentage gamble in the summer to being a core member of the first team. That's impressive for both him and his club.