Author: James Yorke

Nobody is suggesting that player recruitment is a simple task. A team could sign a budding star player but if he misses mum’s home cooking and craves a simpler life, it’s unlikely he will stick around and help you win the league. Sometimes personalities or cultures clash or key decision makers just aren’t too great at their jobs. Maybe a manager is vetoing signings while trying to bring in his old mate’s son, or an agent has got friendly with the chairman. However we look at it, aspects of football’s transfer market are ripe for manipulation and inefficiency is rife.

Should it be this way? Not really, but when money and glory and sport intersect, often times folly is not too far behind. Here with a hefty dose of hindsight put through a blender of logic is a look at the 2015-16 Premier League signings that for whatever reason, either made no sense or just haven’t worked. If nothing else we should be able to identify a few risk factors and ideas of how not to waste the vast Premier League bounty that burns a hole in every chairman's pocket. This list doesn't include all possible options, you no doubt will have ideas of others, but for impact, bad planning and expense, it covers many sins.

After we'll look at a couple of players that will likely land on other similar lists with reasons why really, the jury is still out.

Christian Benteke

Liverpool finished 2014-15 with a 6-1 defeat at Stoke City and started without a striker. Rickie Lambert emerged from the bench, but with Brendan Rodgers choosing to play a 4-3-3, fluidity seemed to be the primary style in play, for all that it didn’t work..  Mario Balotelli was out of favour and soon to leave, Daniel Sturridge injured and further striking options were clearly necessary for 2015-16. In came Danny Ings while Divock Origi returned from loan. So far, sensible. But there seem to have been twin forces working at Anfield since the FSG takeover and last summer was no different. The easy to like signing of Roberto Firmino--he had the numbers--has over time looked well worth his fee, especially when contrasted with the square peg that is Christian Benteke.

Benteke’s stats are fine, he has averaged around half a goal per game in his first season at Liverpool, precisely what he averaged in his last season at Aston Villa and broadly, he is a reliable mid-volume shooter, so what’s the problem?  In all likelihood, Benteke’s signing was the folly of a manager clinging to his post and to be deemed successful, he was likely to have been expected to create greater output. There were immediate concerns that he wouldn’t fit Rodgers’ system, that were loudly amplified as Jurgen Klopp continually selected others instead.

Benteke hasn’t failed, but the selection process that deemed him a viable signing broke down somewhere and he was never the right fit. Who signed off on the deal? Still a more than capable goalscorer, lower placed Premier League teams should have him top of their summer shopping lists and with a loss sure to be made £15m might get the conversation started.

Gökhan Inler and Yohan Benalouane

As much as anything Inler and Benalouane are good examples that even when your recruitment team is as feted as Leicester City’s is, you can still get things very wrong. Inler arrived as a well respected veteran of eight seasons in Serie A and over 80 international caps. A fee of £5m was mooted for a player who at 31 was clearly on the wrong end of the age curve and one might presume that the whole endeavour was an attempt to replicate the successful Esteban Cambiasso experiment. Leicester’s solid and unchanging first eleven has proved unaccommodating for the Swiss star and 195 league minutes in three starts and two substitute appearances reflect how minimal his impact has been that he has been called upon from the bench so sparingly could reflect a lack of trust from coach Claudio Ranieri. Deemed a coup upon signing it must also be presumed that he commands a decent wage but a three year deal for a 31 year old? Ouch...

Even less successful was Benalouane. Signed for a similar fee, he played just 66 substitute minutes and somehow managed to undershoot the team’s already low pass completion rate in completing just 4 of 14 passes before departing for Fiorentina on loan. It is to be hoped that his contract is not lucrative as it is reported to be for four years.

All clubs will miss with transfers and its should be remembered that Jamie Vardy, Riyad Mahrez and N'Golo Kanté arrived over a series of transfer windows; they weren't a one hit magic spell of uncovered gold. A team that puts more into it's recruitment strategies will hopefully find more of the better players but will always run the risk of finding and overinvesting in a Benalouane or an Inler as well.

Serge Gnabry and Alex Pritchard

Military service was the stick that beat young men into shape for many years in this country and it can only be presumed that an opportunity to see cultural differences led to these two talented young players joining up with West Brom and the Tony Pulis junta. In a move that seemingly benefited nobody, Gnabry got 12 league minutes before being recalled to Arsenal in January, only to be replace by Pritchard--already toughened up from his time in the Championship at Brentford--and on the road to recovery from injury has found just 62 minutes of play.  

Each signing is hard to quantify as both players lack the natural build and fortitude to be converted to centre back and now their futures look no clearer than they were at the start of the season. What was the point? Maybe only Pulis knows.

Scott Sinclair and Micah Richards

Aston Villa’s blend of Tim Sherwood and an analytics department created a two tiered summer recruitment drive that ultimately found the best of neither world. For the future, Ligue Un was liberated of Jordans, Idrissa Gueye was secured ahead of fellow suitors Leicester and Barcelona were pillaged for Adama Traoré.  Every team needs to think of the long term and within a strong base of a team, these signings may well have paid off. Indeed, their futures will be interesting to follow, be they at or away from Villa Park. The general perspective is that they “weren’t good enough” but there is sufficient evidence to presume that it’s too early to make final judgements here.

The Sherwoodian side is less worthy of praise. From Emmanuel Adebayor’s rejection of the club due to advice from a pastor--who may well have correctly foretold their impending failure-- to the signing of 33 year old car enthusiast Joleon Lescott, there were elements that seemed far from on message with the rest of the recruitment arm.

Most criticism can be reserved for the unfortunate gambles on Scott Sinclair and Micah Richards. Sinclair last played anything like a full season in 2011-12 and although young enough to be deemed worthy of a four year contract, has failed to impress in 18 starts, so much so that he has been tried in nearly every attacking position in the team and has not managed to make any his own. Two goals from sixteen shots in 1500+minutes and ne’er a goal assisted from five whole shots created and all we’re left with is a phantom contribution.

For Richards it’s more of a sad tale having been long beset by injury problems, but his recruitment screams of a Sherwood gambit; you can envisage the conversation: “Helluva player was Micah, if we can just get him back to his best…” and boom, a four year contract lands in the post. He too was young enough to hope for but also hadn’t managed anything like a full season or even a half season since 2011-12.  The possibility of his retained fitness seemed remote, and to his credit he has achieved that, but certainly he is not the player he was, and even a cursory review of his recent career and problems with injury would reveal that. He may well now continue his career at Villa and find the Championship more to his current level.

Steven Naismith

Norwich saved the pennies in the summer and ended up spending the pounds in January. Did they spend them wisely? It seems more likely that blowing £8m plus wages on a three and a half year deal for a 29 year old squad man from a mid table Premier League club was a sub-par allocation of resources.

One goal and a shade over one shot a game suggests that Naismith might not have been the saviour Norwich’s misfiring attack were wishing for, and what may be a standard Premier League contract will look quite expensive if as seems likely they return to the Championship.

Radamel Falcao, Alexandre Pato et al

Chelsea have had some delightful talents in their squad over the years but the loan signings of Falcao and Pato have felt more like a case of buying museum piece cars-- 2010 vintage-- to keep in the garage and occasionally marvel at. With two league starts and under 400 minutes between the pair over around 14 months of generous wages, it becomes puzzling to ascertain the purpose of signing multiply injured former talents.

Chelsea have found a diverse level to their recruitment this last year and the entirely logical and smart signings of Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas now look more a blip among a series of more unfathomable choices. Pedro gets a free pass as at least he had recent credentials but nobody knows why they signed Michael Hector, a player who may be a reasonable gamble for a lower half Premier League team but who seems incongruous in among the elite. Papy Djilobodji came from so far out of left field that he might as well have been sitting in the stands with a hot dog and a beer and has already joined the loan army.

Plenty of young players have arrived or been reintegrated, Baba Rahman, Matt Miazga, Kenedy and Bertrand Traore to name but four, but with a huge season of transition coming, Chelsea need to accelerate their future into the present and their recent transfer record is decidedly mixed.

Newcastle: team award

When you spend the best part of £80m over two transfer windows on seven 20 to 25 year olds and look like getting relegated, it’s probably worth conducting a quick review of your processes. Newcastle have had obvious weaknesses for years, at centre back Fabricio Coloccini at 34 is long past his best-- note how many relegated teams have past it centre backs, it’s a theme--and pairing him with Chancel Mbemba was a baptism of fire for the younger man. They have also posted a seriously sub-par save percentage for four years yet haven’t seen fit to get into the market and buy a new bone fide first choice goalkeeper. These are the major holes in the squad so what did Newcastle do to solve it? They bought attackers, lots of them.

First the positive: players that still have enough value that other teams may want to purchase them in the future. Andros Townsend, given a run of games for the first time in years has done well and Georginio Wijnaldum at least looks talented but Aleksandar Mitrovic is the only one player on the team to have created any kind of shot volume this year and in contrast, the miss list won’t look pretty playing Championship football next season.

That same miss list might not seem so damaging were Newcastle not in the business of giving out abnormally long contracts in an attempt to maximise the resale value of their investments. Henri Saivet has more years on his contract (five and a half) than league appearances (four) and Florian Thauvin has already returned to France with a five year deal in his back pocket. Beyond this, Seydou Doumbia, thankfully just a loan signing, has managed just 29 minutes of league football. His failing at Roma and now near absence for Newcastle poses a question we will return to about Russian League form.

Newcastle’s strategy has long seemed scattergun, but only this season have they sunk significant investment into their signings-- and it hasn’t worked.

Jury’s out

The pitfalls of writing this kind of article were highlighted to me in the research stage when I chanced upon a Telegraph article from January highlighting 20 “flop” Premier League transfers. A few names from here featured but the starkest member of the list was Roberto Firmino. While it took time for the former Hoffenheim man to settle, that he would now easily be considered for a signing of the season list shows that patience and acclimatisation are often requisite for expensive signings, maybe moreso if coming from a different league or with a language barrier to overcome. As someone who has followed Erik Lamela’s career up and down through rose tinted glasses, it's a situation I know well. Hence for these two, the jury remains out:

Oumar Niasse

It remains to be seen if the signing of Oumar Niasse is the last big folly of the old regime or the first mistake of the new Farhad Moshiri era. Maybe that’s harsh on a player that had work permit issues, a wrist problem and a lack of match practice but thus far he hasn’t looked like £13m well spent. Two shots in his two starts and 142 total minutes is a far cry from the lethal striking seen at his former clubs and Everton must hope that the often difficult transition from the Russian Premier League to the English version can be successfully negotiated long term. He was a four shot a game man in Russia and contributed to over a goal per 90 minutes played and must have impressed key influencers at the club to have secured such a lucrative move. With any large fee comes a long contract, this time four and a half years, but in a team that has far more problems at the other end of the pitch, it seemed strange to use up so much of their budget on another striker, and especially mid-season.

But really, it’s too soon to call him an absolute flop. With a reasonable chance that Romelu Lukaku could leave in the summer, pre-purchasing a replacement may end up smart and your view on the likelihood of success may well rely on how highly you rate the standard of the Russian League and the risks associated with taking statistics there at face value. Only Salomón Rondón seems to have escaped the recent curse of the transferred Russian League goal machine, managing eight goals for a Tony Pulis team is more than reasonable. In order to get an idea of what type of player Niasse is I took the liberty of joining the scouting ranks-- I cued up a couple of Youtube videos.  A lot of his goals appeared to involve his breaking free of unset defences, with plenty of space around him. How well will he be able to perform in a more defensively robust league where space and chances are harder to find? Signs of settling will be required quickly next year, or else his time on Merseyside may well be short.

Memphis Depay

With every goal that Anthony Martial scores, it appears that Memphis Depay becomes further away from the spotlight he was expected to occupy upon joining Manchester United last summer.  A statistical outlier in Holland, a rare mega shot provider (over five per game), some concerns were raised around his shot selection, but he looked a genuine goal talent in his final year at PSV and sure to progress.

And maybe he will, for although the goals have dried up and his coach appears to have lost faith in him, he has still provided a solid shot volume (around 3.5 per 90) and at 22 years old has a ton of time to find out how to play in a bigger league. Possibly that leap from Holland to England has been more difficult than expected and it is well documented how Louis van Gaal’s systems limit a player’s shooting volume. Whether he stays at the club or is deemed (unwisely) to be surplus to requirements, it is more likely than not that the best of Memphis Depay will be forthcoming and found somewhere, long term. He may not end up the next Ronaldo, but he sure won't end up a bust either.

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Thanks for reading.

Find me on twitter at @jair1970

Four defeats in 29 games, second place behind er.. Leicester, fewest goals conceded and second highest scorers, we reach early March with the health of Tottenham's season looking undeniably perky. Regardless of the failings of others, to reach this point and be having non-comedic conversations about the potential of this team to win the title is unusual, so much so that it has almost been forgotten how far the team has risen and that a top four slot was a high ambition back in August.

So what the hell happened? Last season Ryan Mason and Nabil Bentaleb habitually formed a guard of honour in central midfield and made life far too easy for the opposition. They have now been largely relegated to the fringes and replaced by the deceptively child-like visage of converted centre-back Eric Dier and whomever sits alongside. Chances are far less simple to find for visitors down at the Lane, or indeed anywhere else this team rolls up. Work ethic, shots–a lot of them–and dominance are the order of the day. So what is the limit for this side? Is this the start of a golden era or are we just looking at yet another strange feature of this odd season, a Tottenham that no longer crumbles at the first sign of pressure?

What came before

Last season was, in the world of performance metrics, pretty grim. At no point did Tottenham project to be anything much more than an upper mid-table side, various expected goal models pegged them around eighth or ninth, as did general shot analysis. Not good, yet somehow, in a signal of things to come, other teams failed to translate performance into points and the team ended up fifth with a slightly bemused fan base not sure whether to credit the finishing position or bemoan the grim method. Summer transfer dealings were necessary and early moves saw defensive selections. Eventually, Toby Alderweireld, Heung-Min Son, Kevin Wimmer, Kieren Trippier and N'Jie Clinton were purchased alongside the delayed arrival of some kid from the lower leagues, Dele Alli. Primary complaints involved the lack of a Harry Kane alternative for the front line and expectation was muted. Of those signed, Clinton apart, each has had a role to play and unusually none can be considered to have had an unsuccessful year.

Meanwhile, leaving with passports in hand were an array of presumably shirking types, out of love with the barracks mentality of Pochettino and off to continue their footballing lives in Guangzhou, Naples, Sunderland and "unattached".

Zero wins in the first four games including an unfortunate defeat at Old Trafford and a dismal wobble to allow Stoke to draw made it appear that little had changed. However, a couple of 1-0s and the eyecatching 4-1 demolition of Manchester City showed there was a little more going on; maybe this team was quite good?

Embers are glowing

In a warm but cautious appraisal of a promising start back in November, it was starting to look clear that pre-season hopes of "something a bit better" were undershooting reality. Lots of early draws kept wider recognition away and  at that point, with Chelsea's season already resembling a fire in a park bin, Tottenham looked like they had a reasonable shot at the top four: the top end of the more pragmatic of predictions. And as time has moved on, they have found themselves ensconced towards the top end of the table, with a cushion to teams beneath. If we take a look at the shot metrics, there's a good argument that they have actually underperformed.

All the shots, all the time

What can we take from this and the numbers that form it?

• In 2014-15, goal difference and shot numbers oscillated around zero, at times better, at times worse, generally quite average.
• Points were more consistent, Tottenham went 14-7-7 in games decided by a maximum of one goal, which meant they were turning a moderate goal difference into points at an extremely solid rate
• In 2015-16, goal difference is a step above (+0.13 per game 2014-15 to +0.93 per game 2015-16) and the shot volumes have taken off. So much so that over the last 10-12 games, Tottenham are averaging around +10 shots  and +5 shots on target per game against their opposition.
• Their all shot and on target volumes lead the league as does their rate of preventing the opposition getting shots on target.
• Put into perspective Tottenham's season long shot on target superiority (+3.7 per game) is greater than eight Premier League 2015-16 teams' entire shots on target volume. It is also a clear second of 140 teams in the Enlightened Era (2009-10 to date), a massive~0.6 shots on target per game ahead of three Manchester City teams–including two title winners– from 2011-12 onwards.
• Tottenham are forcing opposition keepers to make over five saves per game, more than any team in this same logged era.

So when we look at charts and numbers like these and reflect on the exalted company this team appears to be in, it begs the question: why isn't this team crushing the league? Firstly and simply, the close games in which Tottenham had such a good record in last season haven't broken as kindly: they are running at 6-10-4. The volume of time spent as a clearly superior team drawing in games likely feeds somewhat into the enhanced shot volumes and more than once, it has been noticeable that Tottenham have changed their strategy once securing a lead and turned quickly to defend. In fact, the derby against Arsenal is a microcosm of the entire season; Tottenham took 26 shots and found the target 11 times compared to Arsenal's ten and four. Clear shooting superiority yet a close, and ultimately drawn game.

That Handsome Man

The elephant in the room here is a team that sits in among those Manchester City teams referred to in that previous paragraph. It also offers a clue to the disconnect between this season's shot volumes and success. Tottenham's 2012-13 side, managed by Andre Villas Boas, was even more shot heavy yet in a stronger league and powered by Gareth Bale could only finish 5th. However, parallels are far from ridiculous:

Check out the points!

So as far as alienating comparisons go, this one is pretty big but maybe history should be kinder towards Villas-Boas' ability to organise a disparate rabble of players around Gareth Bale and be this good.  They lost three of their last 26 games too, their middle and end of season was as strong as this season's start and middle. No capable team in recent history took shots from outside the box like that Villas Boas team, ignoring location and encouraging volume appeared to be part of his method and it's hard to definitively state that in that season it did not work. Sadly, Bale departed and 2013-14 saw a complete breakdown of method and belief.

Expected goals, accuracy and locations

So what has this to do with Pochettino's team? If we look at an all shot expected goals model, we find Tottenham rate around 3rd best in the league, which reflects that while they have volume, they have found it harder to create shots in closer locations. A large part of Tottenham's shot volume in comparison to other strong shooting teams is coming from outside the box. Think Christian Eriksen firing a free kick on target from literally anywhere in the final third of the pitch, or Harry Kane attempting a shot (not against Arsenal) from 25 yards.  These are regular but low expectation opportunities and Tottenham take a hell of a lot of them.  Here we can see Eriksen from range in particular:

(create your own charts for your own favourite players HERE)

The rate in which shots have been landing on target is extremely high–40%: the highest rate in the league, and so high that it would be perfectly reasonable to expect this to reduce over time. Harry Kane is the highest volume shooter in the league this year with 116 shots taken at a rate of 4.1 per game. Of these shots, 47% have landed on target; up from 40% in his hot breakthrough season. Eriksen had bad accuracy last year (27% on target) but has leaped forward this season, he also leads the league in out of box attempts (53, 2.2 per game) and has an all shot accuracy of 48%, higher even than Kane and despite a huge volume from range. A classic example of a metric that can fluctuate over relatively small samples. With these two taking nearly 40% of Tottenham's total shots, the influence of their accurate shooting on team rates is clear.

Reflections of location can also be found in the conversions. This team converts all shots at no more than a league average rate and for on target efforts is actually notably under par. There is room for a positive skew here and this being a frequent hallmark of a championship challengers, it should come as no surprise that Leicester are the only contending team to be significantly ahead of average here.

Goal contributions- assists and goals- are spread around the core of attackers. A fluid interchangeable front four has been largely populated by five players: Eriksen is running at 0.55/90, Kane is at 0.46/90, Alli 0.60/90, Lamela 0.42/90 and Son 0.31/90. Even Chadli, largely used as back up is at 0.52/90. Since the injury to Clinton, there have been fewer options but everyone has contributed.

Defence

The one unarguable difference between this team and any iteration of Andre Villas Boas' Spurs or Pochettino's first season is in defence. The signing of Toby Alderweireld seems to have been key and his partnership with first Jan Vertonghen and more recently Kevin Wimmer can be toasted by the best defensive record in the league, only 24 goals conceded. But perhaps equally important was the deployment of Eric Dier into a screening midfield role, a position that was inhabited during 2014-15 by a vapour trail.

Tottenham's opposition have secured only 3.1 shots on target per game, which is the lowest and best in the league and this is an area where expected goals agrees: Tottenham have conceded the fewest goals both in reality and in expectation. As well, no team has secured more than four shots on target in a game against them since Manchester City in their 4-1 defeat on the 26th September, a sterling and impressive run and a strong indicator of defensive consistency. People may also be aware that the team has not been two goals behind in a fixture all season, where all other Premier League teams have spent time at least three behind. Defeats have been rare, narrow and on occasion unfortunate.

Team ethic and methodology

For so many years Tottenham have appeared as a non-coherent team, with talented individuals but without an effective group ethic. Often there have been players banished from the squad, fighting to secure transfers away and generally spoiling the ambiance. It seems that under Pochettino this is- at least for now- a thing of the past. Team and methodology are everything.  There is a core squad of at least 16 players that can start a game on merit without a noticeable reduction in quality and a handful of others slightly further down the pecking order.

Evidence of the press employed can be seen in the opposition pass success rates: the lowest in the league (70.7%) and more advanced methods endorse the same. Tactical fouling appears to be part of the style too, Tottenham have made the third most fouls and received the second most yellow cards but are yet to have a man sent off.

Sustainability

The increase in Tottenham's performance levels from last season to this are so extreme that there is a solid argument that Pochettino has improved Tottenham to a greater degree than Claudio Ranieri has improved Leicester. Aspects of Leicester's success have been built from a remarkable sequence of beneficial skews: first scoring at an extremely high and unsustainable rate then following it up with a rate of goal prevention at a similarly high and unsustainable rate. Their underlying performance metrics peg them as a Europa League challenger and reversion to that level, if not lower, seems almost certain for next season. That is not a slight on their achievements but the context is there.  In contrast, Tottenham have built their challenge differently; by enhancing both their attack and defence and moving both their outputs and methods from the lowly levels of 2014-15 to genuine league challenging levels.  In any season this Tottenham side would likely be residing in the top four, whereas it seems that Leicester have found a perfect storm only in this season, their chance to repeat is slim.

One aspect that is less likely to sustain is success from set pieces. With fifteen goals for and only five against, a +10 goal difference in this area leads the league. Of their top four rivals, only Arsenal have a positive goal difference here (+3) and rates of set piece conversion are well renowned for being non-reliable and unlikely to intrinsically repeat. While Eriksen is a quality contributor here and again we can see his importance, it is unwise to presume that such an advantage can be maintained moving forward into further seasons.

Prospects

The leap in performance is huge but prospects are likely good. The team is young and developing, it needs little remedial work in the summer and while Eriksen and Kane are the current jewels, that players like Lamela and Alli and a rejuvenated Dembele have taken their share of responsibility mean that this isn't the one man team of 2012-13.  Champions League qualification and a successful project are each huge carrots to dangle for the prospective retention of both coach and star players and Pochettino seems genuinely invested in his project; it would be surprising to see him tempted away. Maybe only Eriksen is vulnerable to outside bids? There is talk that he has a contract offer and his worth has gone slightly under the radar. His reputation isn't quite as high as that of Luka Modric prior to his move away, for all that he is equally key.

With nine games to try and overhaul Leicester's five point lead and some tricky fixtures, it's possible that the title may be beyond them. Concerns about the sheer physicality of Pochettino's style causing late season tiredness remain, though it would be a harsh assessment to note the defeat at West Ham and late concession to ten-man Arsenal as indicative of this. Borussia Dortmund will offer a unique test in the forthcoming Europa League tie and the squad depth will be well tested.

Expectation should be tempered against a wider perspective. When measured against shooting metrics and the likelihood of a team improving year-on-year, this team has come from further away than Liverpool's 2013-14 team to bid for glory and has done so with a steady defence and high attacking shot volumes. That's an enormous achievement in itself and projects positively going forward. Liverpool lost Suarez and had huge room to revert, much like Leicester now, but Tottenham's potential is perceptibly different, their rise has been built on stronger foundations and even a drop back should see them continuing to challenge for Champions League places in years to come. Manchester United and Liverpool continue to be in flux, Chelsea are in repair and while a Guardiola fuelled Manchester City look likely to contend well, the top four is more fluid than it has been at any point this century. Spurs are well placed to capitalise and in advance of their stadium move, consolidate.  It should be remembered that for 2015-16, top four is a success, second or third even moreso and whether they manage to win the title or not, they have managed to put together a genuinely high quality season, with a strong likelihood of more to come.

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Thanks for reading Follow me on twitter

@jair1970

The First Annual Twelve Game Premier League Stat Review

Last year I took a dig around some stats at the twelve game point to try and quantify what Southampton were doing. They had extremely good underlying numbers at that point, to such an extent that I felt they had a good chance of a run at the top four.  It didn't come to pass but by doing that piece of work, it meant I had built a database of numbers at this point in the season.  It is useful as a reckoner for identifying teams that have been performing at levels that may be at historical extremes, either good or bad and also whether they have been exceeding or undershooting both metrics that indicate quality or those that are likely to regress over time.

Twelve games also takes us over the 1000 minutes point which at least allows some degree of smoothing for variable fixture strength and we have a sample that is large enough to have some confidence in conclusions drawn.  Plus: it's interesting.  In particular outliers are informative and taken together, the relationships between shot metrics and various conversions and save rates paint a picture of team strengths that you don't get by focusing on single metrics.  The public data available for such analysis exists from season 2009-10 onwards (The Enlightened Era) which means we now have a sample of 140 12 game starts to compare and contrast with.

The Good Let's begin with a team that has shown extremely strong form at both ends of the pitch.

Man City It's kind of ironic that I'm writing this on a day in which Man City have failed to beat or even score against the league's bottom team, Aston Villa, but through twelve games, Man City have created shot numbers that peg them as an extremely dominant side.

Total Shot Ratio (TSR): 71%, 1st/140

Shot on Target Ratio (SoTR): 75%, 2nd/140

Shots For: 18.3 per game, 11th/140

Shots Against: 7.7 per game, 1st/140

Shots on Target For: 6.9 per game, 5th/140

Shots on Target Against: 2.3 per game, 2nd/140

(Chart Credit: Paul Riley, yellow=goals, blue = shot on target, go check out the entire league)

Rightly favourites for the title, this looks a team with few real weaknesses; only Aguero and now Bony's fitness casting a shadow over their current form.  In particular, and despite first class attacking numbers, their defense has resisted shots with remarkable effect.  In only one game have they conceded over ten shots-the defeat at Tottenham- and are currently on a run of conceding only 25 shots in five games.

None of their quality here is potentially inhibited by more fluid metrics which are running happily within "normal" parameters, so it is entirely reasonable to predict that their dominance should continue.  But what of Arsenal?

Arsenal

The only team that has consistently shown form anywhere near that of Man City is Arsenal.  Aspects of their play, specifically on the front end have been very impressive, indeed they have currently taken one more shot than Man City.

Shots For: 18.4 per game, 10th/140

Shots +/- : 7.5 per game, 13th/140

That shots plus/minus figure is only Arsenal's 4th best on the list, which shows how often Arsenal have created solid shot numbers over these years.  Indeed the strangely moderate numbers of 2013-14 that didn't eventually hinder their run to the top four, have been left far behind in the Ozil/Sanchez era. The red flag in Arsenal's numbers is in their save percentage.  Arsenal recorded an extremely high save percentage throughout the second half of 2014-15 (80%) and have continued this season, in fact, they've actually increased to 83%.  This is enough to rank 2nd/140 in the list and as such is likely to be unsustainable.

Arsenal's against shot numbers are nowhere near as strong as City's yet Cech has managed to fend them off at an extremely high rate.  Whilst he is usually regarded as one of the better keepers in the league, it is not possible to be confident that Arsenal will continue to resist their opponents shots at this level going forward.  As a bare minimum, one would expect three percent to come off that total as the season draws on, and likely more.  This potential cooling off is likely to impact their results at some point in the not too distant future.

The amount of their opponents shots are hitting the target as a percentage of total shots is also high (40%, 5th/140) and the pure rate in which their opponents are getting shots on target is far more in the realm of average too: 4.3/game compared to City's 2.3/game.  As we can see in the chart the dominance isn't as stark:

As an aside, there is a fascinating gap between a line through the penalty spot and outside the area in which they are conceding very few accurate shots.  I would presume that this means they hold a line on the edge of the box quite effectively but a visit to the video booth would be required to ascertain if this is borne out.

Also Good

Tottenham and Southampton are both running strong shooting numbers so far.  Both have a shot on target ratio of 65% which ranks them joint 10th/140.  Where they differ is at each end: Southampton's repression of opposition shots on target is very similar to the good total they recorded last year (2.8 to 2.9) whereas Tottenham have taken off on the front end here and are only just behind Arsenal  with 6.3 on target shots per game (enough for 11th/140).

Southampton's problem is that they are struggling with a low save percentage and this is undermining these very solid shooting numbers.  They look well set to maintain a top seven challenge once more and with a slightly deeper squad and a smidgen of reversion in this metric, could go well under the radar in attempting to improve on last season's final position.

Interesting for Tottenham is their +10 goal difference.  Until Southampton broke the run last season, the last 25 teams with a plus ten goal difference after twelve games had all made the top four, stretching back to Portsmouth in 2007-08.  One note of caution is in their shot ratios. Objective Footy noted that maintaining a season to season leap of above ten percentage points as they currently are is extremely rare:

Almost unheard of to post double digit increase/decrease. See if Spurs can hold their 15.7% point SoTR increase (50% in 14/15 > 65.7% 15/16)

— ObjectiveFootball (@ObjectiveFooty) November 5, 2015

Man Utd have a defense almost as limiting as City's- 8.8 shots conceded per game (4th/140)- and given their truly sub-par attacking figures, must be hoping that this will be enough to power their charge.  The only praise I can give Liverpool is also defensive, they are repressing their opponents shots on target at a solid level (3.3/game, 13th/140).

Running hot

There is little I can add here to Joel Salamon's video deconstructing West Ham.  He was right: they were liable to revert to a lower level of scoring and have already fallen from scoring 50% of their shots on target to *just* 44%, a mark which is still high enough to register as 2nd/140 in our chart.  There is plenty of room for them to fall further here but none of their underlying shooting numbers imply anything but an average side being powered by a temporary positive fluctuation in conversion.

The Bad

There are likely more than three "bad" teams in the league this year but it's hard to not be drawn by the three teams that have provided distinctly unimpressive shooting numbers thus far: Sunderland, Newcastle and Aston Villa.  Each of these teams is running a big shot or on target deficit, to a level that pegs them as distinctly bad. Here we see Sunderland's on target inadequacy (7th/140 worst SoTR; ~tied with Villa):

However, in terms of just raw shots six teams are milling around the historically bad ten per game mark, the aforementioned three, Man Utd, West Brom and Stoke. I think it's possible to find a degree of understanding towards the ghosts of Pulis past and present creating little, although Stoke are a potentially interesting case of underperformance here,  but for a team that has spent as widely and freely as Man Utd to be running an attack that challenges league minimums for shot creation is verging on the criminal.

On the other end, three teams are currently exceeding the fabled "Knutson line" of 16 shots conceded per game, often a big hint towards a battle against relegation: our pals in the North East and Crystal Palace. But Palace are doing well aren't they? Well, the opposition conversion rate of ~6% is 2nd/140, so extremely low and is currently helping them resist.

Newcastle have the distinction of having created the two least proficient shot games in the league this year; their ten man, one shot salvo against a then rampant Arsenal and this weekend the miracle two shot 1-0 victory at Bournemouth.  Only Remi Garde's Villa debut (three shots) prevents them from rounding out a dismal top three here.

Running cold

Over the early years of advanced public data, Wigan, managed by Roberto Martinez repeatedly underachieved against their numbers, struggled yet somehow survived.  Dismal save percentages and rates of scoring were commonplace and as a method of creating success, they seemed to exist as a yin to Tony Pulis' yang.  This season, we have a new contender.

Bournemouth

It's easy to feel sorry for Bournemouth.  Not only have they been plagued by injuries dreamed up by the devil, but despite Heurelho Gomes' recent efforts to get noticed at Watford, they have been suffering severely from "clown keeper syndrome".  The knock on effect from this is despite very impressive shots against numbers of 10.1 per game (12th/140!), where the Lord giveth, he also taketh away: a save percentage of 47%- the lowest on record- has thoroughly skewered them:

We can see just how many of their goals conceded have come from ideal shooting positions and they are currently conceding 21% of all shots they face, around double league average and for the technically minded among you, nearly four standard deviations away.  Blackburn 2011-12 bottom out the full season numbers with save percentage of 59%, so on the positive side there is a huge room for reversion and it hasn't relegated them yet.

Final Quick Notes

• Chelsea's main problem is in the rate in which their opponents are getting shots on target: 43%, 1st/140, and the resulting concession of goals. This implies they are conceding good quality chances but is prime for reverting to a lower level.  Beyond that their underlying numbers are merely very bad by their own standards.
• Man Utd, West Ham and Everton are all running high PDOs, Liverpool, Bournemouth and Norwich are notably low.
• Sunderland and Villa's current points totals are very low. In this 6 season sample only QPR 2012-13 (4 pts) are lower.
• The difference in which the rate Southampton create shots on target per shot and prevent the opposition from doing so has them ranked 2nd/140. The only team more effective in the sample? Southampton 2014-15. Maybe Koeman's system has hit on something here?
• Leicester's 20 goals conceded is huge for a top 4 residing team, the last club to do the same at this point was Man Utd 2001-02, and they promptly lost their next three games.  Otherwise, their goals per shot on target rate is at 40%, very high- but not West Ham high.  Their platform seems shaky, although 25 points after 12 games usually indicates a top seven finish and 20 points or more pretty much guarantees top half.

Thanks for reading!   Find me on twitter @jair1970

Farewell to Tim

More than ever, the cold hard financial reality of dropping out of the Premier League is firmly at the forefront of club owners' minds, so it is relatively unsurprising to see Tim Sherwood flung onto the managerial scrapheap alongside Dick Advocaat. Both men hit a simple goal after coming in late on last season- to survive- and both oversaw a terrible run of results at the start of 2015-16. That's the crux here, throughout the history of the game results have been the fundamental currency for measuring success and underlying metrics and strategies run a distant second to losing six straight and eight of ten when gauging a manager's survival chances. Sherwood's season win percentage was closer to none than second to none and that was that.

Many were sceptical about his appointment in the first place, such was the negative emotion generated by his brief time in the hot seat for Tottenham. Fans had been overwhelmingly against his retention and this was a man who had earned kudos within the club and had worked for many years in the background, with youth and structure. Yet personality issues were cited and now having had two short tenures in the Premier League and found no great sadness among either fan base he's left behind, one might presume that he's had his chances.

This is a shame from a light dramatic perspective. Although we rarely saw the full range of “media Tim” at Villa, the league has lost a character, in the broadest sense. He managed par shot ratios last season and distinctly sub-par ratios this; Villa just haven't been very good, and haven't created enough, so whoever takes over has a tricky task. Sunderland having blinked first and played a quick joker in hiring Allardyce, may well have secured a minor edge.

Middle Classes

The new TV deal that kicked in this year has lead to a lot of talk about a rising “middle class” within the Premier League. That Crystal Palace could prise Yohan Cabaye from PSG's bench, Swansea could pay big money for Andre Ayew's contract and West Ham could attract an elite chance creator such as Dimitri Payet have all been cited as indications of this new order. That these players were secured from Ligue Un, a familiar yet less prosperous league to raid, is less important than the perception that maybe, in seasons past, these players would have landed at richer clubs.

But things have changed in that regard too. The richer clubs have changed some of their buying focus. Arsenal don't get involved outside unwanted superstars or teenagers, Chelsea didn't much bother this summer and Man Utd pay top table fees for talented but available types. Man City finally realised they needed to back-up Silva and did so to the tune of around £100m, Spurs have returned to a more careful approach and Liverpool once more took a chancy dive into the chocolate box.

There simply aren't very many spaces in these top squads for this second tier of players who are now arriving in the league. But there are plenty of spaces in the squads of these mid-range cash-rich clubs, and so this is where this apparent new breed of “I can't believe xyz club has signed xyz player....” ends up. So far, so what? This perception of a bubble of improvement in the middle of the league has gained more support based on the early season performances of variously, Swansea-to start with, West Ham, Leicester and Crystal Palace. Swansea's early season promise involved performing well against three teams that in subsequent weeks have proven to be dodgy, bad or both. Dominating a broken 10-man Chelsea, and beating Newcastle and Sunderland has shown to be less remarkable than it seemed and they've quickly reverted to their 2014-15 level and recently struggled for points.  Similarly Crystal Palace's early promise has taken a more generic turn as they've now posted five wins and losses apiece.

So that leaves Leicester and West Ham to fly high on 19 and 20 points and continue to be regarded as the embodiment of this new order. No matter that Newcastle spent freely and have one win from ten games or that Stoke are meandering with a who's who of intriguingly talented players...

Is this any different to what we've seen in other years?

Not really.

The middle class have risen before- at least within the parameters of the early season, and while some have managed to stretch that out across a whole year, the difficulty to maintain any kind of position among the money clubs has been obvious. Take Newcastle's freak 2011-12, they started 6-4-0 and lay third before holding on for an unlikely 5th place at season's end. In 2012-13 West Brom had 17 points by now and lay 5th (they finished 8th). Southampton have started the last two seasons strongly, posting 19 and 22 points respectively across ten games and West Ham themselves had 17 points this time last year.

As ever, more focus is put on the early form of a team than at any other part of the season. Good results give a perception of good form when the metrics that may be powering such a run are less sustainable. What links all of those teams just cited was that they were either converting their chances at a notably high rate or were saving the opposition's shots at a rate far above average.

The illusion of improvement and new found success can be hard to resist in simple narrative terms but the two teams seemingly transcending their mid-range roots and attacking the top order are again doing it via tenuous means. Leicester's appear slightly more likely to sustain as their shot numbers are above par, but are still running a high conversion, while West Ham have been posting 50% goals to shots on target for a good while now, a rate that would cause vertigo in a lumberjack.

The new middle class is the same as the old middle class. A rotational place in the bottom end of the top seven- variously inhabited by Newcastle, Everton and Southampton- is the realistic limit of their ambition and whether such an achievement could be repeated must be considered unlikely- for now.

Low Points

Linked to this, OptaJoe had this tweet out on Sunday:

2000-01 - Only season 2000-01 (21) has seen the Premier League leaders after the opening 10 games have fewer points than 2015-16 (22). Even.

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) October 25, 2015

On the surface, it might look like this is more evidence of a degree of parity within the league but dive into some shooting numbers and it's not really the case.  2009-10 Chelsea are still the shots benchmark and Man City, and in particular their shot on target ratio, are currently ranking close behind them.  Arsenal too have strong attacking shot numbers for this stage in the season and the distance between these two and the rest is significant.  I'll get into this a bit further in a couple of weeks, but for now it's straightforward to reflect on.

That they haven't turned these strengths into more than seven wins from the first ten games, isn't very indicative.

Obligatory Tottenham Untroubled Win

Unbeaten in the league since the opening day and generally undominated are not words one may have presumed to be writing about Tottenham coming into the season.  As it is, the bizarre fortune of finding strength despite injuries continues.  Having lost Bentaleb and Mason previously, midfield options had started to be looking somewhat limited.   Step forward Alli and/or Dembele to fill the gap and prod and poke next to Dier. All of whom have been in solid form.  Rolling over a Bournemouth side who appear to be staring down the barrel of a tough season was as routine as it could possibly get and when we look at some season numbers, we find Tottenham's performance levels as currently of top four standard.

Indeed, depending on how harshly you want to treat Man Utd for failing to create any high volume shot counts whatsoever, Spurs are arguably performing at a level only behind Arsenal and Man City.  The goal glut against Bournemouth also went some way towards balancing what were underwhelming conversion metrics and it's been fascinating to see both teams and players gradually-or in some cases rapidly- catching up with a reasonable expectation given by underlying numbers.  As noted last week, Aguero and Sanchez had each seen their goal return catch up, and Tottenham have now done that to a degree at team level.  As each game passes, our understanding of the qualities of players and teams increases and having reached the ten game mark, we are finally in a position to be a little more concrete in analysis than before.

As for Tottenham's prospects, the continued mediocrity of Chelsea acts as an ever widening door to the top four.  Far be it from me to fuel an increase in fan expectation but the league is at their mercy things are shaping up very encouragingly.

Thanks for reading!

_________________________

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Leicester Remain Fun

To week nine! We're tantalisingly close to be able to make some reasonably confident conclusions from the fare we've seen and the early winners and losers are starting to shake out a little.  One of the early winners- Leicester- produced a real sit up and take note performance in retrieving a two goal deficit at Southampton.  With a relevant caveat about the effect of the score, to bombard Southampton with 22 shots in the final 52 minutes was some effort, especially given Southampton's prior efficiency in rebutting opposition shooting and they duly got their just rewards with a late equaliser.  As we will see later, sometimes styles clash and teams neutralise each other, sometimes the opposite occurs and you get an open game and sometimes shit just happens.  Predicting this is not always straightforward.

It's still hard to be entirely positive about Leicester but the plus column is beginning to stack up quite well in their favour. It's now a full half season since they suddenly discovered how to score goals in a 3-4 defeat at Tottenham and in 14 of those 19 games they have scored twice or more.  Across the tenures of Pearson and now Ranieri, they have been a 52% shots team, which is more than adequate to stay competitive in this league and a similar rate was enough to earn praise from this quarter for Tim Sherwood late last season.

The basketball stylings of their games have led to a huge average of 3.6 goals per game across the same period, a full goal a game more than league average and leads to an obvious kicker- they haven't kept a clean sheet this season.  They've also come from two down on three occasions this term and got points, a scenario that is unlikely to continue.  Other quirks highlighted by the numbers are related to their style of play: only once in these 19 games have they exceeded the opposition's pass completion rate- against the attritional Pulis-led West Brom, and only twice have they seen more of the ball.  While not aspects that specifically correlate to success they do clearly indicate- with the pace of Vardy and the trickery of Mahrez, who appears to have moved to the special teams corps recently, that an invitation for the opposition to play onto them creates the space for their rather direct game.

The Expected Order Of Things

Once more we again see things settling down among the established order of last season's top four.  Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd and even Chelsea eventually recorded routine victories against lesser opposition.  A weekend in which these four teams fashion a combined 27 shots on target for a total of 13 goals and their opposition manage only six on target for one goal will only ever lead to a straightforward outcome.

Beyond that simple premise, the four teams occupied familiar roles within: Arsenal and Man City both recorded for them, slightly off pace shot totals- 15 each compared to a year average of 20- but were entirely unperturbed. Man Utd pretty much drew stumps as soon as they hit 2-0 and coasted through the game recording a moderate shot total of ten and Chelsea- with one eye on midweek or playing selection roulette?- brought the "wait for errors" methodology so famously employed up at Anfield 18 months ago.  Though the scoreline and tactical set-up may have been similar, one can't help but be drawn to the difference in quality of the opposition and nine shots at home to a punch-drunk Aston Villa side is not the stuff of dreams.  The reformatting of Chelsea appears far from complete, for all that this victory will divert the pressure towards limbo.

Having recently warned of the perils in Bournemouth's near future, it was interesting to see that they had this week succumbed to the "Lambert Effect" of contract renewal.  Far be it for me to suggest that Eddie Howe did not deserve a new contract, I know nothing of the details, but congratulations to his advisors who have secured such a deal exactly prior to the moment that his record could possibly decline.  Starting a very tough run with a stuffing at the Etihad can't be helped but, it must be hoped that Glenn Murray can continue his goal getting or else the point-per-game rate could well be hard to maintain, at least in the short term.  The transition from eight points in October to not that many more in December could well have thwarted any stalling contract talks.

For now Eddie Howe is secure but how secure Eddie remains...

Newcastle Jolt Awake

There can't be too many instances of a team conceding six them scoring six in their very next game, in fact i'd wager that it's nearly as unlikely as the other feat Newcastle achieved in scoring all six of their shots on target.  I've got no record of such a feat among my Premier League records but in a strange coincidence it was found that Wijnaldum was involved in an identical scenario for PSV a year or so back:

@jair1970 Wijnaldum did it before: http://t.co/dTqqq4GQFt — John van Herk (@JohnvHerk) October 18, 2015

And again we see the impact of one game in a small sample and another good reason why using small quantities of games for anything other than identifying trends is a dangerous precedent.  Newcastle scored half their season's goals in this one freak game and superficially, despite very poor underlying shot numbers, may now appear to a casual viewer of the league table to have a well functioning attack.

Similarly while there may be reason to think that Norwich are vulnerable defensively, the hammering their save percentage and goals against took here is not reflective of their wider play.  The skew caused by this one game is huge.  When we look at our chosen method of shot recording far stronger trends are maintained.  Both teams are likely to face long and difficult seasons but one blowout does not condemn either team to anything more than a change in external perception.  Nine games is not even one quarter of a season.

There is all to play for.

Obligatory Klopp Section

There will not be a football column in the land that fails to mention Jürgen Klopp this week, so it was somewhat amusing that a clash of what could now be the two hardest working teams in the league should serve up a 0-0 such as this and get the Match of the Day graveyard slot.  A "fascinating clash of styles" is the kind of tosh generated by television companies reeling from a lack of goal mouth action for their highlight reels but for a game of high energy and low thrill, it was refreshing to hear Klopp admit that whilst the effort was there, the quality was lacking.  We can also recall the sterility of matches between the league's other "squeezers" Man Utd when facing off against Pochettino, then shrug and remain unsurprised for the next time it occurs.

Still the "run around a bit" stat was happily bandied about; that Liverpool out ran and out sprinted Tottenham, and were the first team to do so this season,. We can take that as reflection of a quick adoption of his methodology, indeed, what other choice do his charges have?  Beyond that it is a stylistic point and little else. With the same raw materials as Brendan, can the sum of the parts increase?  That is of course the big challenge, but as mentioned prior to Rodgers' dismissal, aspects of Liverpool's game are not too far from being converted into a positive return.  They are a 55-60% shots team so far and have been undone by miserable conversion numbers- albeit with a side order of Coutinho shot selection- and have been hard to beat.  There is plenty to work with going forward and it's a difficult appointment to deny.  Sorry, our Bren!

For Tottenham we find another game in which the balance of play favoured them but the result did not. A fifth draw in nine matches is underwhelming as is a total of three wins- the same as er... West Brom.  Having spoken far too frequently on Kane's goal lull it's unlikely that further evidence is required but upon seeing Paul Riley's expected goal chart we see how it has now become slightly extreme:

Top 20 Players xG pic.twitter.com/Rm31q4o8YN

— Paul Riley (@footballfactman) October 18, 2015

With Sanchez, Aguero and even Sterling leaping with gay abandon like water nymphs bounding from the cold lilipad of goal shyness to the warm nest of netbusting, we await further news from our intrepid hero Kane.  The excellent Football In The Clouds site can round out the story, using the unique 11 v 11 numbers from there, we see that Kane's goal contribution lags significantly behind his overall shot contribution:

He's not Balotelli, it won't last.     ____________________

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As ever, the inopportune arrival of the first international week and its dreary procession of less than enthralling matches allows a time for pause and reflection.  Front ended by a possibly chaotic final few hours of the transfer window, we are faced with varying degrees of desperation and contentment as the many hundreds of signings rumoured all summer are finalised or turned into dishonest chip paper.  The coaches will likely herald the end of August as a time to take stock of whatever squad they have retained and plot their future; for some, the early forays have clarified strategy and personnel choices, for others, the view remains foggy.

Storylines

Harry Kane hasn't scored so far this season, therefore,  "he's tired, he's lacking in confidence, he's not that good..." That's an amalgamated version of what i'm hearing out in the real world and in commentary and it's true that he has failed to score from 13 attempts on goal.  In part, this has contributed to Tottenham's inability to win a game but we can recall Michael Caley noting a lean spell for Aguero immediately prior to the start of City's still continuing win streak in April:

But what of Alexis Sanchez? He's had twenty shots without scoring so far this season but the lazy narrative hasn't been directed at him because Arsenal have won a couple of games and well, when a languidly styled player like Mesut Ozil is around, blame takes longer to filter down. Or maybe Depay? He got a couple of goals in Europe against inferior opposition so we can ignore the 16 shots for no return in the league.

What conclusions can we draw here then?  It's four games and Depay, Sanchez and Kane are all taking shots at a rate that suggests they are acquiring chances at a rate commensurate with their career totals; as such, it's likely that goals will ultimately follow.   In fact all these samples of shots are so small as to have very little wider relevance and we can see Giroud, Aguero and Benteke have all scored just once from the 16, 15 and ten shots they've taken.  So we find a scenario where if Kane had finished just one chance, even if he'd shinned one in from half a yard, he would have been removed from these cross-hairs.  If he scores for England this coming week, even if it's against San Marino, he will be deemed to have returned to form and "found confidence".  And that is the depth of casual analysis we find time and again from a wide variety of sources. And it's not good enough.

If you want an early story how about Wayne Rooney averaging two shots a game as Utd's starting centre forward? Given a long term decline in his shooting numbers, one might presume his restoration to centre forward might help reverse the trend. It's worth monitoring but does it tell us something about van Gaal's system or Rooney's current ability or Depay's profligacy? Is it something to conclude on now? Nah, that's for another day, when the sample size means a little more.  Regardless, the media storyline is focusing on his lack of goals, which while a function of his shooting, isn't the real issue.

Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle

As a little case study I present three teams.  Each has scored either two or three goals and their matches have involved between five and seven goals total.  Each team has a strong save percentage so far (81%, 77% and 82%) but we can see that these similar outcomes were gained from very different inputs.

Arsenal

Shots For/90: 20.8

Shots Against/90: 8.8

TSR: 70%

SoTR: 63%

Arsenal have put up extremely strong shooting numbers so far this season.  Over twenty shots per game leads the league and only Man Utd are conceding fewer.  Yet with just two own goals and one from Giroud, they have contrived to score directly from only one of 83 shots.  As a representation of how ludicrously unsustainable and skewed that is, Paul Lambert's 2014-15 Aston Villa team would probably have scored four of those shots.  Andre Villas Boas and his 2013-14 Soldado orientated attack might have got three goals from those same shots.  Ball-park standard league average shooting finds eight goals.  It won't last.  Arsenal fans may feel frustrated by aspects of their start but the pressure is building and there is a team out there that is likely to walk into a cork-popping goal glut at some point.  Seven points underestimates what they've shown so far.

Liverpool

Shots For/90: 13.5

Shots Against/90: 12.8

TSR: 51% SoTR: 52%

I have a few ideas about the transience of Liverpool's playing squad and FSG's attitudes to recruitment that I may flesh out into a wider post at some point but for now we'll look at some numbers. What started as Rodgers' pragmatism in the face of pressure has been punctuated rudely by West Ham's carefree piggy-backing and much like the end of last season, Liverpool now face an enforced break on the back of a bad defeat.  Ironically, their better performance was against Arsenal and they've struggled against the lesser teams they've faced resulting in par shooting numbers.  There is justified concern in the attack, even at this early juncture their shots on target rank is 13th and so far it's looking like a typical slow Rodgers' start to the season may well be forthcoming:

It's been uninspiring so far and goals aren't flowing at either end, a sub 4% conversion rate for is nearly mirrored by around 6% against.  There are a lot of new players to integrate and for contrasting reasons of quality and influence, Sterling and Gerrard left a sizable gap behind them. Seven points is possibly a generous representation of what they've shown so far and those tough away games will keep coming.

Newcastle

Shots For/90: 5.3

Shots Against/90: 19.0

TSR: 22%

SoTR: 20%

I saw a chart last week that claimed that Newcastle were the second highest net spenders in the league this summer after Man City.  I suspect my surprise was shared by many as maybe Wijnaldum apart, Newcastle don't look to have been buying from the "percentages" playbook.  They look like they are gambling on their recruitment, much as they have in previous years and hoping for the best. Mitrovic is the perfect embodiment of this, very young, clearly temperamental but also talented.  The modern game usually shys away from such volatility.  Newcastle embrace it.

And so, with a steady old head to guide them, it looked that surviving August was a primary function.  Two points looks bad, but actually represents a stunning result when shown against horrific shooting numbers.  This week they had one shot against Arsenal, hampered by the enforced absence of Mitrovic and an average of just over five shots per game is remarkable in its inadequacy.  Yet they have two goals, as many as Liverpool, and have conceded five, as many as Palace and Leicester.

So we see three teams with very different stories away from what may seem obvious and once more a warning that firm conclusions made from small samples of games can be mighty risky.

Obligatory Tottenham bit

"Go on my Son!" was the cry from Tottenham fans last week as a player thought hard to obtain landed at White Hart Lane.  At 23, and  coming from a solid role in Bayer Leverkusen's sporadically impressive forward line, Heung-Min Son satisfies a fan and coach desire for quality and a board desire for marketability. That it may signal the demise of Lamela will be mourned quietly in this household should it come to pass.  Hope for further signings still pervades the fan-base and with Dier now a defensive midfielder and Kane looking to play 50 matches this year straight through, "concerns" and "worries" have some foundation and the remaining hours of the transfer window could well be er... vaguely interesting. I am excited about the raw pace and potential of an N'jie/Son pronged attack and I'd like room for players like Alli and Pritchard to play.  It's possibly more fun this way and we've always got Adebayor if things got really taxing. I jest of course.

Meanwhile, on the pitch, gone is the dismay caused by winning matches despite poor underlying numbers that haunted the team so readily last season.  Now we have the opposite! Solid, sometimes impressive shooting numbers powering underwhelming results.  Arguably Tottenham have deserved an upgrade from each of their four results, a loss and three draws could easily have morphed into a draw and three wins but for the hindrance of poor game management and wayward finishing.  Surely a trip to Sunderland will enable the team to find those elusive three points?

______________________________________________

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