Month: August 2019

The Union have quickly become the team in MLS that other teams should emulate. They've got the second best expected goal difference (xGD) per game. Though, in fairness,, the gap between them and LAFC in first is the same as the gap between them and the Columbus Crew, who currently sit 17th in MLS. But, in further fairness,their budget isn't in the same stratosphere as LAFC, to say nothing of the teams they rank above likeAtlanta, Toronto, NYCFC, and the LA Galaxy. It's easy to look at the success Atlanta and LAFC have had and say that if teams would just spend money they'd be better (and owners should spend more money), but in MLS, in large part because of the restrictive salary cap, teams can be competitive on a smaller budget if they prioritize youth development, make intelligent tactical choices, and recruit with the needs of their system in mind. It would be incorrect to characterize the Union as the surprise of the season. The Earthquakes have gone from the worst team in MLS to a top 5 team, and LAFC is having arguably the best MLS season ever, but the Union were not supposed to be on top of the Eastern Conference two thirds of the way through the season. They entered the year with a new Sporting Director, Ernst Tanner; a lame-duck coach, Jim Curtin; and middling expectations.  Tanner was brought in to replace Earnie Stewart, who became the General Manager of the United States Men’s National Team following their failure to qualify for the World Cup. Previously the academy director at Red Bull Salzburg, Tanner, had received plaudits as the man responsible for bringing Roberto Firmino to Hoffenheim and Naby Keita to Salzburg. Under Earnie Stewart, the Union had a reputation of being a possession team. With Tanner’s arrival the expectation was that the Union would start high-pressing more and valuing possession less, a philosophy very similar to what current Red Bull Salzburg manager, Jesse Marsch, adhered to while he was at the New York Red Bulls.  The Union are absolutely high pressing more; their passes per defensive action have dropped from 11.15 last year to 8.78 this year, fifth best in the league. Interestingly, the increase in pressing hasn’t made the team particularly susceptible at the back. It speaks very well of Philadelphia’s implementation that despite being more aggressive, the team  is currently second in MLS at limiting clear shots by their opponent. With the ball, the team has remained one of the most patient teams in MLS. The speculation that they would value possession less under Tanner hasn’t come to fruition on the field. The team is actually possessing the ball more (53% this year, 50% last year). The press has increased the amount of transition opportunities, and the Union have taken advantage of that. They’re taking 12% more shots counter attacking or high press situations than they did last year, but they’ve also shown an ability to win the ball back, enjoying sustained periods of possession.  The changes haven’t just been tactical. While Stewart was the GM and for the entirety of Curtin’s tenure, the Union generally lined up in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 formation. This year the team has almost exclusively lined up in a narrow 4-4-2 diamond. While much of the credit will go to Tanner for bringing a style of play that the Union have obviously benefited from, Curtin deserves praise as well for being open to the change and implementing it effectively on the field. Off the field, the Union were one of the earliest teams to prioritize youth development. In 2013 the Union created a private high school, YSC Academy, for their academy players to attend. Due to MLS’ Byzantine rules for recruiting academy players (Each team has an exclusive area where only they can sign players to homegrown contracts, but large swaths of the country don’t fall into any team’s exclusive area), the school has provided a large competitive advantage, recruiting players who live in talent-rich areas that don’t fall in an existing MLS team’s exclusive territory. The Union have used their residency program and YSC Academy to attract talented players from all over the country to Philadelphia.  Recent rumors suggest that MLS might do away with the homegrown territories rule and allow teams to freely recruit within the country. The Union are well positioned to be one of the teams to benefit from that rule change given the infrastructure they’ve already established and their willingness to put academy graduates on the field. This season 16% of the Union’s available minutes have gone to players on homegrown contracts. Additionally, they’re in the top 3 in the league in terms of the number of academy graduates that have seen the field and total minutes played by homegrowns. While a number of academy graduates have seen the field, only two have become regular starters for the team: Brenden Aaronson and Auston Trusty.  Trusty, alongside fellow academy graduate Mark McKenzie, became a regular starter at center back last season. This season Trusty has primarily played next to Jack Elliot but regardless of his partner, he’s been the more active defender in the pairing. He’s not particularly strong in the air, but he reads the game well and is athletic enough to act on what he sees. Aaronson, who saw time early in the season because Marco Fabian was injured, hasn’t given up his place in the starting lineup. Initially, he primarily played at the tip of the diamond, but Curtin has preferred a healthy Marco Fabian or Jamiro Monteiro at that spot in recent months. Consequently, Aaronson has been utilized as a shuttler opposite either Monteiro or Alejandro Bedoya. Due in part to this deeper role, he hasn’t been a notable goal threat, but he’s done a lot of defensive work and shown some promise as a dribbler. While the academy is starting to bear fruit, Union fans have long clamored for the team to make more noise in the transfer market. It would be easy to point to the signing of Fabian as a statement of intent that set the tone for the season, but between injury problems and an early season red card suspension, Fabian has played only a third of the available minutes.  While the Fabian signing has not yet met expectations, Tanner has brought some flair to the Union’s recruitment that was previously lacking. He’s brought in players from second and third division in Germany, a striker from the Chilean league, and a midfielder from Ligue 1. Every player has been at least a spot starter, and none of them have performed significantly below expectations when on the field.  The least heralded player Tanner brought in has been the most important. Kai Wagner, purchased from the Wurzburger Kickers in the 3.Liga, has been one of the best left backs in MLS. The Union’s system is a great example of how much responsibility can be put on the fullback in the modern game. Not only is Wagner responsible for tracking the opposing teams right winger, but he is also typically the only player providing width on the left when the Union are in possession. He’s excelled on the defensive side of the ball, and hasn’t been a liability in possession. Wagner is the kind of low risk-high upside acquisition that budget conscientious MLS teams should make more often. There is no threat of looming relegation; they can take risks and generally avoid serious consequences.  What they can’t do is try to compete with the bigger spenders on a level playing field. The Union have exceeded expectations by investing in areas of the team that are generally neglected by other MLS clubs. The problem Philadelphia will eventually face is similar to the one that Oakland A’s faced once the Yankees and Red Sox started pouring money into analytics. The competitive advantages small market teams find go away in a hurry once richer clubs start valuing them. LAFC is already implementing a similar model with a much larger budget, and because success breeds imitation other clubs are sure to follow. That inevitable shift will be great for the league, but likely bad for the Union. Their window is now, before everybody else figures out exactly how they’re winning.

A year ago, Serie A's transfer window closed on August 17. It was as hectic as ever, with all the clubs engaged in the search for the last few signings to complete the team or in finding a destination for those players considered surplus to requirements. This year the closing date of the Italian football market has been postponed by two weeks and, as usual, mid-August has returned to a period of holiday and procrastination for sporting directors, in view of the last deals to be completed before September. In the current holiday climate, I thought that this would be a good opportunity to devote my column to three not so well known midfielders who have already changed teams during the summer as we wait to see what their first season on a new club will bring.

Niccolò Barella (Cagliari to Inter Milan)

The topic of who is the strongest young Italian footballer is widely discussed, and Nicolò Barella's profile merits inclusion in the debate. Manager Antonio Conte and Inter are obviously convinced of his qualities, especially if it is true that the club has invested in him a sum that could reach 50 million euros, bonuses included. If the bonuses are realized, Barella will become the second most expensive player in the history of the club after fellow summer signing Romelu Lukaku. Of the three midfielders presented in this column, Barella is the one on which there are the highest expectations, even though he is coming off the least convincing season of the three. In a mediocre (to be generous) Cagliari season he played the first half of league games in his usual role as the left sided number 8 in Rolando Maran's 4-3-1-2 but at the end of January, he was moved behind the strikers because of Lucas Castro's injury. Those who expected from him a more decisive offensive contribution in a role closer to the opponent's goal were disappointed. Barella scored only one goal in the season, which also happened by pure chance (a lucky free-kick against Atalanta) and he failed to be an effective source of play, creating just a limited amount of chances. The 21-year-old shot the ball 52 times, showing a preference for shots from outside the box reflected in an open play xG per shot of just 0.044. He was also remarkably aggressively with his passes, collecting an abysmal 3.1 turnovers every 90 minutes, but his creative contribution remained almost unnoticed if we look at numbers (0.08 xG assisted and 1.0 open play key passes per 90). Even after splitting his metrics between the two halves of the season in which he played two different roles, his statistical peak is in winning fouls. Surely there was an improvement in xG assisted, but nothing suggests he should be a full-time offensive midfielder or even the main creative option of a team. During pre-season friendlies Antonio Conte moved him back in his natural role, fielding him as the left sided number 8 in his typical 3-5-2, with Brozovic in the middle and new signing Stefano Sensi on the right. His two midfield teammates have carried out build-up (Brozovic) and creative (Sensi) duties with Barella much more focused on attacking spaces and the box off the ball. Even if Barella is adept at carrying the ball in spaces and starting transitions with his trademarks runs, an important aspect of his game that didn’t consistently emerge last season is his ability to run behind defenses and to blitz inside the box surprising defenders. With two midfielders more focused on moving the ball with the passing game he will have much more freedom and probably have a more relevant offensive production. What will not change is his role and contribution in the defensive phase, in which he is naturally able to recover the ball and, despite his build, surprisingly effective in individual duels. No other midfielders won more duels than Barella (480) in the last two seasons combined and his last season averages in tackles and interceptions per 90 remain remarkable even when possession-adjusted. Conte will surely appreciate his defensive contribution and make good use of him when pressing high up the pitch. Playing for a bigger club like Inter would be beneficial for Barella’s career and it should finally liberate him from the tactical misconception that is often associated with those midfielders who can do almost anything well. That is to say, to be loaded with too many responsibilities and duties on the pitch and therefore to risk falling into a state of mediocrity without one's own strengths emerging.

Ismael Bennacer (Empoli to AC Milan)

Despite being relegated to Serie B last season, Empoli once again proved to be the ideal springboard for young midfielders, regardless of who he is sitting on the bench. After Piotr Zielinski (Napoli), Matias Vecino (Inter) and Leandro Paredes (PSG) rose in Maurizio Sarri and Marco Giampaolo’s systems, in 2018/2019 it was Ismael Bennacer, Rade Krunic and Hamed Traore’s turn to shine at Empoli under now Genoa coach Aurelio Andreazzoli.  After Empoli's relegation all of them were able to secure a transfer to a top team during the summer. The first two will continue to be teammates at AC Milan, and the third was purchased by the Juventus and loaned out to Roberto De Zerbi’s Sassuolo straight away. Other than being the player of the three who commanded the highest price (€16 million), the Algerian international is probably the most interesting midfielder of the lot. Bennacer is an atypical, maybe even unique holding midfielder, who does not limit himself to playing simple passes but has a wealth of surprisingly varied solutions to progress the ball up the pitch. After spending the 2016-17 on loan playing in Ligue 1 for Tours, Empoli purchased him from Arsenal for a fee of just €1 million in the summer of 2017. Bennacer immediately broke in Empoli starting XI and after playing 39 games in a successful Serie B campaign that saw the Tuscan side winning the championship and getting promoted, he retained his role as a starter in the Serie A, playing 3171 minutes in the 2018-19 campaign and emerging as one of the most interesting midfield prospects in the league. The 21-year-old has really good technique and is particularly skilled on the ball. His abilities with the ball at his feet, coupled with a natural ability to predict opponents’ defensive moves, make him an elusive player, particularly good at winning individual duels in a key zone of the pitch and at beating the opposing pressure. You usually don’t expect the holding midfielder of a relegated the team to complete 1.7 dribbles per 90 and to do it in critical zones like in front of the box. In the graph above you can see Bennacer’s successful dribbles in red, failed in yellow. When carrying the ball Bennacer can turn or change direction with speed, leaving the opponent unable to challenge for possession and getting himself in position to pass the ball into more dangerous zones. So even if his approach can seem perilous, the reward is usually worth the risk. The Algerian is comfortable playing the ball short, yet is average pass length was quite long (23.5) and his long-game is good considering he completed 5.6 long ball per 90 with a 67% success rate. As Emanuele Mongiardo stated on his analysis for l’Ultimo Uomo, it will be interesting to see how Giampaolo will exploit his ability to play long diagonal balls towards the flank, considering that his teams usually prefer to play short and without much width. In a team that should be more ball-dominant than Empoli, it will also interesting to see how he will increase his influence in the last third and in chance creation (he assisted just 0.06 xG per 90 last season). Physically Bennacer might not be imposing but has above-average balance and he is remarkably strong pound-for-pound considering he is listed at 175 cm of height and 70 kg of weight. These qualities make him a great ball-winning midfielder too: in his first-ever Serie A season he accumulated 4.6 tackles and interceptions per 90, while also being the player with the highest number of recoveries in the league (312). The new AC Milan midfielder is quite aggressive when pressuring the ball carrier and good at anticipating the game. He had a pretty decent 67% rate in tackles per dribbled past, but sometimes he is too impatient when trying to win back possession and this could expose his team considering he is expected to be the last man standing in front of the defensive line. To watch a midfielder with such a distinctive playing style is always a pleasure for the eyes. AC Milan have invested a relatively small amount of money considering the upside of the former number 10 of Empoli and Giampaolo is ready to give him the keys to the midfield. Personally, It will be exciting to watch Bennacer further develop his game.

Ruslan Malinovskiy (Genk to Atalanta)

To prepare Atalanta for their first-ever participation in the Champions League and in an attempt to repeat last season's achievements in the league and the Coppa Italia, Gian Piero Gasperini asked the club for a roster including 16/17 footballers who could compete for a place in the starting eleven. A request that meant buying at least a central defender (Martin Skrtel), a striker (Luis Muriel) and a creative midfielder also able to add 5 to 10 goals a season. The latter profile matched with the characteristics of Ruslan Malinovskiy, a midfielder who grew up in the academy of Shakthar. The Ukrainian international was acquired from Genk for €13.5 million plus a percentage of the future resale. An exciting purchase, Malinowsky has been deployed this preseason Gasperini both as an offensive midfielder, as a replacement for Gomez in Atalanta’s 3-4-1-2, and as a central midfielder. At the start of his career, Malinovskiy was often deployed in between the lines, but at Genk, he was moved to the middle of the pitch. The new role, however, did not limit his scoring contribution, given that in 2018/19 he scored 16 goals in total, including 5 penalty kicks. With his deadly left foot, he is indeed an obvious choice for free kicks and dead balls in general. During the preseason he even attempted to score directly from corner kicks on a couple of occasions. In addition to having an excellent medium and long passing game, his past as a trequartista and his character mean that he is not scared of taking risky decisions in midfield (he turns the ball over 2.1 times per 90 minutes). He often looks to play killer balls for the attackers (16 assists in all competitions last season) and in his attempts to dribble his direct opponent, in which he often succeeds, allowing him to generate numerical superiority. He is extremely creative for a central midfielder (last season he played side by side with Sander Berge in Genk’s 4-2-3-1) as his 0.22 xG assisted per 90 demonstrate. The 10.5 deep progressions and 2.4 successful dribbles per 90 he notched in the Belgian league are elite values that he was even able to top in last season's Europa League campaign (11.2 deep progressions and 2.7 dribbles p90 in 640 minutes played). At the same time, however, the Ukrainian can put into play that aggressiveness that is common to all the midfielders of Atalanta, which make him also surprisingly good in the defensive phase. It is difficult to overcome him when he fights for possession and therefore, he seems perfectly suited to play in Gasperini’s man-oriented pressing system which requires players to be particularly reliable in defensive duels. Despite several European teams trying to sign him, Malinovskiy has come quite cheap and he seems to be a safe bet for the club which has decided to rely on him to take another step in its journey to the elite of Italian football. Not only he is a player who adds depth to the roster and capable of carrying out, if necessary, the creative responsibilities in the last third of Gomez and Ilicic, but after an initial phase in which he will adapt to the requirements of a new team and a new league he could become a unique tactical weapon for Gasperini, who couldn’t count on a midfielder with these characteristics in the past few seasons. If Malinovskiy, 26, is able to match the statistical output of last season while making the jump to Serie A, he would be one of the best signings of the summer.   Header image courtesy of the Press Association

Yesterday we looked at the top of the table, today it time for everybody else.

Can Getafe replicate last season’s success?

Getafe were undoubtedly the surprise story of last season (Alavés ran them close until dropping off badly down the final stretch). With one of the league’s lowest budgets and just two years removed from promotion, they put together a sustained push for Champions League qualification that was only ended on the final day of the campaign. Their fifth-place finish was nevertheless the highest in the club’s (relatively brief) history. There haven’t been any major departures so far this summer (defender Djené Dakonam is the most likely to now attract interest), and the incomings all look suited to the well-organised, mid-block-press and break approach that has become their hallmark under Pepe Bordalás. They have added to their collection of worked-my-way-up-through-the-divisions-the-hard-way strikers with the signing of Enric Gallego from Huesca, picked up former midfielder Faycal Fajr, and brought in Marc Cucurella from Barcelona after a solid loan spell at Eibar. The main doubt is just how well their squad will hold up to the joint stresses of league and European action. That might make eighth to 12th a more realistic aim than sixth and up.

How far will Real Sociedad’s young project take them?

Real Sociedad had the youngest squad in La Liga last season (with an average, minutes weighted, age of 25.3, down from 26.3 the season before) and appear to have doubled down on that strategy this summer by bringing in some more interesting talents: goalkeeper Alex Remiro (from Athletic Club), defender Mobido Sagnon (from Lens, and undoubtedly the rawest of the new arrivals), midfielder Martin Odegaard (on loan from Real Madrid) and striker Alexander Isak (from Borussia Dortmund). Add that to three members of the Spain squad who won the European Under-21 Championship in Italy, including last season’s standout Mikel Oyarzabal; two solid central defenders in their mid-20s in Aritz Elustondo and Diego Llorente; and a smattering of more experienced heads; and they have the makings of a very good team with plenty of performance and value upside. La Real’s underlying numbers jumped around all over the place last season. Even on the 10-match average plot, there are a number of clearly visible ups and downs in their xG and xGC. But the end result was a pretty much even goal difference -- both actual and expected -- and a ninth-place finish. Pre-season seems to have gone well, and there is confidence within the group that they will be capable of challenging for European qualification. They are unlikely to get off to an especially good start. Both of their first-choice central defenders are suspended for their opener away at Valencia, and that is the first of four away engagements across their opening five fixtures due to ongoing work at their Anoeta stadium. But if they can build up some momentum thereafter, they could be one to watch.

Will Nabil Fekir transform Real Betis?

There is something slightly romantic about Nabil Fekir’s move to Real Betis, about a player who just a summer ago was close to joining one of the biggest teams in Europe now turning up at a middling, albeit well-supported, team in Spain. It seems like a move from a bygone age. “He felt it was necessary to take a risk on a new project after the frustration he felt after the failed move to Liverpool,” Lyon’s former head scout Gerard Bonneau told El Pais. “He always maintained that rebel spirit, and his cycle in Lyon had ended.” Will it prove to be a transformative transfer for Betis? It could well be. When he’s on the pitch, Fekir is a very good player. The question, the one that perhaps deterred more prestigious suitors, is to what degree his knees are likely to hold up. He has accumulated solid minutes over the last three seasons, but there are always niggling doubts related to the anterior cruciate ligament injury he suffered in 2015. Betis will also have to provide him with a good supporting cast if they hope to make a push for European qualification in a crowded field that is also likely to include Athletic Club, Eibar and Espanyol in addition to the teams already mentioned. They were middle of the road last season, finishing 10th with the ninth-best xGD in the division. They’ve since sold Pau López, Júnior Firpo and Giovani Lo Celso. They are still expected to make some moves before the window closes, but in general terms their squad probably looks slightly weaker at this stage. But add a goal-getting striker (it seems to just be matter of time before they get the Borja Iglesias deal over the line) to the mix and everything could well fall into place.

How far will Celta Vigo and Villarreal rise?

Neither Celta Vigo nor Villarreal expected to find themselves in relegation troubles last season, but that is exactly what happened. Villarreal spent nearly a third of the season in the drop zone only to eventually recover to 14th, while Celta ended the campaign fourth from bottom, just four points clear of relegated Girona in 18th. Celta have repatriated former youth-team players Denis Suárez and Santi Mina to give Iago Aspas some much needed attacking support. If they can improve defensively (something they did towards the end of last season after Fran Escribá came in as head coach), they should be fancied to enjoy a more comfortable campaign this time around. Villarreal might even be able to break the top 10. Pablo Fornals will be missed, but the signing of Raúl Albiol clearly raises the competence level in defence, while André-Frank Zambo Anguissa (on loan from Fulham) adds legs to their midfield. Villarreal had underlying numbers more consistent with a mid-table team than a relegation fighter last season and can be expected to convert that into a better finish in 2019-20.

Can the promoted teams compete?

Last season, two of the three promoted teams went straight back down and all of them finished in the bottom five. But that hasn’t been the general pattern in recent years. Eleven of the last 15 promoted teams have avoided an immediate demotion back to the second tier. Four of those even managed to finish in the top 10. It does, though, look likely that this year’s batch will struggle. Partly because of their own quality level, partly because other teams who finished towards the bottom of the table last season (such as Celta and Villarreal) have strengthened. Of last season’s top-flight teams, it is Real Valladolid who look most vulnerable (Alavés and Levante are other potential candidates). They had the third-worst underlying numbers and seem determined to do things on the cheap, relying primarily on loans from elsewhere. The departure of Fernando Calero to Espanyol has weakened their defence. And so if the new teams have anyone penciled in as a side they might finish above, it is Valladolid. Of the three, Mallorca and Osasuna look most likely to have a chance of doing so. Mallorca coach Vicente Moreno did impressive work at Gimnástic, and has now led Mallorca to two consecutive promotions. Owner Robert Sarver has a questionable record as an NBA owner with the Phoenix Suns, but things have gone pretty well at Mallorca so far. They do, though, probably need a couple more late-window signings to have a fighting chance. Champions Osasuna have done some decent business this summer -- completing a permanent deal for Rubén García, a key attacking contributor during their promotion campaign, was vital -- and if they can get results at their atmospheric El Sadar stadium (where they only dropped four points last season) that will give them an opportunity to compete. Granada have been hamstrung by having their budget reduced by La Liga following irregularities in payments to their forward Adrian Ramos last season. They had the best defensive record in the Segunda, with central defender José Martínez a standout performer, and if they can keep things tight, they might just manage to sneak survival. But Yangel Herrera aside, their signings are unconvincing.

Life comes at you fast. There’s no man in football at this moment better placed to back up that cliche than Julen Lopetegui. On the eve of his first World Cup game as Spain manager, he was sacked after word leaked out that he had agreed to become the new Real Madrid manager. After he emerged from the plane home from Russia looking forlorn, unshaven and altogether glum, he said it was one of the worst days of his life. Fast forward four months and Lopetegui was again on the receiving end of his marching orders. If success really is a succession of failures handled well then the Basque manager is about to hit pay dirt.

As for Monchi, Sevilla’s once and, now, again sporting director, his return is already off to a dubious start, and it has nothing to do with football. In his first press conference back he said that sequels can sometimes be better than the original before saying The Godfather 2 was better than The Godfather 1. We’ll let the folks over at MoviesBomb dissect that one but it was typically affable from the former keeper and current high priest of the transfer world.

He has backed Lopetegui to the hilt. After whittling down a list of 25 candidates, he found his man, another former goalkeeper, who really wasn’t given enough time at Real Madrid and lost his job for Spain despite leading them into the last summer’s tournament as the favourites.

“They stole 50 goals from my son,” José Antonio Lopetegui, Lopetegui’s father, said after the club sold Ronaldo and didn’t replace him. And the truth is, Lopetegui started that season just fine. Real Madrid were sitting just behind Barcelona, Sevilla, and a Valencia team marooned at the wrong end of the table, on expected goal difference when he was sacked; this is despite allowing 3.06 expected goals against in his last game, a 5-1 hiding to Barcelona. They would eventually tumble much further down the table with Santiago Solari and eventually Zinedine Zidane at the helm as it became clear that the manager perhaps was never the issue. Lopetegui had his ideas clear and, subjectively speaking, correct when he tried to implement a possession-based game at the Bernabeu.

They converted 14 goals from their 15 xG in to start the season, but were faced with Barcelona’s beyond clinical 28 goals from 19.17 xG. They dished out some beatings too with a 3-0 against Roma in the Champions League group stages (with Monchi as the Italians’ sporting director, which might have left a lasting impression) standing out as possibly the zenith of his short spell in the capital. Expectations were simply too high for him at Real Madrid and time was always at a premium. But now, at Sevilla, those expectations have shrunk and the egos have too so he has a chance to mould this team into his very own thing. Monchi has given him a three-year deal, which is longer than the two-year contracts offered to Unai Emery and Jorge Sampaoli and the one-year deals offered to Juande Ramos and Marcelino before them.

He could have as many as seven new starters in his team to start the season. Sevilla have signed 12 players this summer and changed the characteristics of the squad from a physical and fast one into a still physical but more technical and diverse collection of players. His defence looks very different to that of Pablo Machín, who arrived last summer before being sacked in the middle of the season. He played with a 3-5-2 and while Lopetegui has dappled before in such shapes, he will play primarily in a 4-3-3, or a 4-2-3-1 if the situation requires it. And he has the players to do that. Lopetegui has no problem switching formation during a game and switching style depending on opponents.

A new-look defence for Sevilla

One of the most significant signings Sevilla have made is 20-year-old Jules Kounde from Bourdeaux. “I have plenty of faith in him, I have seen him many times and he is an ideal central defender to play in the way Lopetegui wants,” Monchi said about the €25 million defender. Sevilla are set to defend from the front and that typically means plenty of hoofed balls under pressure in their direction and requires a blend of physical assuredness and technique once they are asked to bring it out from the back; Kounde offers both. 

With Diego Carlos, another new signing at €15 million from Nantes, a more experienced and powerful defender beside him, they can carry out the tasks necessary to play Lopetegui’s style of football.

Kounde’s 1.17 possession adjusted tackles per 90 minutes is low but his 7.37 unpressured long balls suggest he is confident in his passing range and willing to be part of the attacking set-up. Kounde’s over-confidence has been something mentioned as a potential negative but Lopetegui won’t mind that in the slightest. Kounde’s closing speed and positional awareness make him an ideal defender for a team that might be vulnerable on the break.

Sergio Reguilon broke onto the scene at Madrid when it was clear Marcelo was unable and, at times, unwilling to defend to an acceptable level. He was deemed surplus under Zinedine Zidane when he came back and Lopetegui snapped him up as he looks set to take another step in his fairly rapid development as an elite two-way full-back. He has the physical capacity to do it all from the left and Lopetegui will be asking him to provide everything he can muster on that side of the field to draw defences out and link with his more advanced teammates.

“For me he is the best coach I have ever had but unfortunately he didn’t have that little bit of luck when he was with us,” Dani Carvajal, apropos of almost nothing, said about Lopetegui. "And until I come across someone who for me is better than him, I’ll keep saying it.” Coaching will be key for Lopetegui and with Kounde and Reguilon, they will be given every chance to expand their technique and tactical awareness in the coming months.

Midfield

As far as Lopetegui’s midfield went at Real Madrid, he had some issues. With no replacement for Casemiro until Marcos Llorente emerged just before the bell tolled, he went with Toni Kroos as the last man in the middle before the German explicitly stated “I’m not Casemiro” and knocked that experiment on the head. Against Athletic Bilbao, specifically, he started Kroos in that position and Real Madrid struggled to gain any sense of control before needing an Isco equaliser to save them as it finished 1-1. Fernando was brought in to play in that role but Lopetegui has shown in the past that he will change his team based on how aggressive his opponent is when fighting for possession. Ibrahim Amadou is also available and Lopetegui has options, who won’t dissent, when picked as the lone man at the base of midfield.

Lopetegui’s overhaul of Sevilla’s midfield should see just one remnant from past managers; Ever Banega. And the Argentine should be the rhythm-setter in Sevilla’s new-look midfield. Joan Jordan is the kind of player who can unlock a defence for Lopetegui and he could play in a more advanced role than both Fernando and Banega. He is a dribbling, passing, energetic player with box-to-box qualities. The Spaniard can add something in attack and defence. 

His remit will consist mostly of aiding the attack but with his lanky frame, he can be tricky to maneuver around too. His range of passing is excellent and Lopetegui is fishing in the right ponds with Jose Luis Mendilibar’s Eibar being the most press-happy team in LaLiga last season. Joan Jordan, at 25, and with two years under Mendilibar, he will absorb his new coach’s system immediately and could be one of the most impactful signings of the summer. 

Attacking

Lopetegui will need a player to operate in the free role Isco was adept at playing in his system. Isco flourished when given this role by Lopetegui and we might look back on his career and see those games for Spain when he was allowed to roam as his very best.

They have already lost Pablo Sarabia to PSG. He and Messi were the only two players with over 0.20 xG scored and assisted per 90 last season. Between Wissam Ben Yedder, whose future is still up in the air, and Sarabia, they found each other 11 times for goals last year. There was no combination more lethal in LaLiga last season. Even the Luis Suarez, Lionel Messi machine could only match that number.

Julen’s father, might be screaming how they “stole 0.20 xG scored and assisted per 90 from my son” if his Sevilla project fails, but they have added key pieces to help their new manager's vision.

Lopetegui might end up rotating his front three, but there is one non-negotiable role; the player doing that drifting, creative Isco job. That’s going to be Oliver Torres. 

Too much of a maverick to ever succeed under Diego Simeone, Torres’ 4.84 pressure regains and 9.09 deep progressions make him perfectly impish enough to be key under Lopetegui. He will be forced to both press when Sevilla lose the ball and advance attacks in closed quarters when they have it. 

The additions of Luke de Jong and Moanes Dabbur suggest Lopetegui is trying to add different styles of strikers to lead the line. At times, like he did with Isco in what was his best game for Spain when they beat Italy 3-0, Torres might have to play a false nine role. At Madrid, Benzema was set for a massive season under Lopetegui as a more associative striker but Raul de Tomas, as a more conventional number nine, couldn’t be convinced to stay. Mariano Diaz arrived after a phone call from Lopetegui convinced him and he started well before the goals dried up and the pressure got too much for everyone at the club. All of which is to say the idea of having both a classic striker, and one who does more of the linking work around is a long time part of Lopetegui’s philosophy, even during the moments when that philosophy has crashed and burned.

Lopetegui’s mix and match strike plan will be complemented by Lucas Ocampos offering width and that ability to take advantage of one-on-ones, Sevilla will have an array of tools to slice open defences. On Marseille last season he was quite comfortable taking the ball in the final third and making runs into the penalty area, dragging apart defences as he goes.

Ever Banega said “there’s nothing new in what they’re asking us to do” after he orchestrated a preseason win over Hoffenheim. There’s a chance they start the season with an entirely new defence, midfield and attack though. Lopetegui’s ideas haven’t changed since his failure with Real Madrid but Monchi, Sevilla fans and Lopetegui himself will be hoping his luck has. 

Header image courtesy of the Press Association

The new campaign gets underway in Spain this weekend. Here are some storylines to follow in La Liga during the 2019-20 season.

Messi and Griezmann: will it work?

Antoine Griezmann started off on the back foot in the Barcelona dressing room. Reports suggest that senior figures, including Lionel Messi, didn’t take kindly to Griezmann’s La Decisión video series (somewhat ironically produced by Gerard Piqué’s production company) in the summer of 2018, which eventually resulted in him announcing his decision to remain at Atlético Madrid. Off-field tensions aside, it is what happens out on the pitch that will be the most fascinating thing about Griezmann’s arrival at Barcelona (for his release clause of €120 million, although Atlético are pushing to receive more). He is used to being the central figure of the Atlético attack -- he was involved at one point or another in moves that led to 0.71 expected goals (xG) per 90 last season on a team who averaged just 1.03 -- and is now being dumped into a team with its own clear and established leader. In terms of usage rate -- which attempts to measure the percentage of a team’s attacks that end, whether positively or negatively, at the feet of a particular player -- Messi has topped La Liga in each of the last two seasons, with nearly a 19% share of Barcelona’s attacks in 2017-18, and over 21% in 2018-19. Every player who has joined the Barcelona forward line since Messi became its star has had to defer to him in some way or another, and it is likely to be no different for Griezmann. He’ll either struggle to adapt or maybe, having been the primary focus of opposing defences for so long, he’ll relish the extra space a more varied set of threats will provide him with. At Atlético, Griezmann was facilitator, provider and finisher; perhaps with Luis Suárez starting to wind down a little -- he took just less than half a shot less per match last season, and did so from marginally worse positions; only five La Liga players who played at least 600 minutes and averaged at least one shot per match across the 2017-18 and 2018-19 campaigns saw their xG per 90 figure drop more than his 0.16xG per 90 decrease from season to season -- he will become more of a pure goalscorer at Barcelona.

Zinedine Zidane vs. Florentino Pérez, and Real Madrid’s Midfield

I like the business that Real Madrid did early this summer. Eder Militão, Ferland Mendy and Luka Jovic are three young players with the potential to resolve problem areas. Eden Hazard is the sort of guy you can fit into a variety of attacking functions and have him perform. They just looked to be a central midfielder away from an expensive but impressive rebuild. From the beginning, reports have suggested that Paul Pogba is the man Zinedine Zidane wants, but that president Florentino Pérez is less convinced. That isn’t the only thing they’ve butted heads over: it wasn’t hard to see an underlying motive in Zidane’s poor treatment of Gareth Bale, a Pérez favourite. The Premier League market has now closed, and given that Manchester United didn’t sign a direct replacement for Pogba, we can probably safely assume that isn’t a deal Madrid will now get over the line. Donny van de Beek seems set to arrive from Ajax, but it isn’t yet certain that will happen this summer. Madrid’s starting midfield for their league opener away to Celta Vigo will most probably be Casemiro, Luka Modric and Toni Kroos. It was the cornerstone of the club’s three consecutive Champions League triumphs, but as age continues to slow Modric, it is becoming increasingly sieve-like -- the Champions League round-of-16 defeat to Ajax made that patently clear. Meanwhile, Madrid now seem to be making a concerted push towards signing Neymar from Paris Saint-Germain. You can find a way of fitting both him and Hazard into the front line and making it work, but the midfield is in greater need of reinforcement right now. Without a refresh there, Madrid will again struggle to match Barcelona -- champions in four of the last five seasons.

How quickly will Atlético Madrid gel?

Settling in as a new signing at Atlético Madrid is never an easy task. Long is the list of players who wilted under ‘El Profe’ Ortega’s gruelling physical workouts or having survived that ordeal, were never quite able to meet the tactical demands of coach Diego Simeone. And this season, there are not only one or two seeking to integrate but a whole host of new arrivals brought in to cover the departures of a number of first-team regulars. Four of the eight players who saw most minutes for Atlético last season have left: Griezmann Rodrigo Hernández, Diego Godin and Filipe Luis. Juanfran and Lucas Hernandez, both in the top 15 in terms of game time, have also moved on. In have come, in order of transfer fee, João Félix, Marcos Llorente, Mario Hermoso, Kieran Trippier, Felipe and Renan Lodi. Héctor Herrera has joined from Porto on a free transfer. All in all, Atlético have spent nearly €250 million and recouped over €300 million this summer. It is a huge amount of turnover for a top-of-the-table club. The expectation would be that it will take some time for Atlético to get up to speed, but they’ve looked far from disjointed during pre-season. Félix, the 19-year-old, €126-million centrepiece of their rebuild, has looked very sharp indeed. And there is talk from the players of a switch to a more attacking style of play, perhaps based around a 4-3-3 formation. That is something we’ve heard before (most recently following the arrivals of Hernández and Thomas Lemar last summer); will it actually come to fruition? This would usually be the juncture at which I’d point out that Atlético’s underlying numbers last season indicated they weren’t quite as strong as their eventual league finish of second might suggest. They did, after all, only have the league’s fifth-best expected goal difference (xGD). But Atlético seem to be one of those teams who are doing something that helps them consistently beat the model: they’ve done so by over 20 goals in each of the last two seasons. It would clearly be foolish to write Atlético off, but if any season is to be the one in which a team from outside the established top three is able to leapfrog them, you’d think this would be it.

Can Valencia break the top-three monopoly?

Barcelona, Atlético and Real Madrid have locked down the top three finishing positions in Spain in each of the last seven seasons. But there could certainly be a decent argument made for Valencia breaking that hegemony this time around. By defeating Barcelona in the Copa del Rey final in May, they became the first team outside of that trio to win a domestic trophy since 2010, and they have a settled squad with potential for improvement. That stability was seriously threatened a couple of weeks back when sporting director Mateu Alemany came very close to resigning in frustration at the refusal of owner Peter Lim to sign off on some of his deals. Had he done so, coach Marcelino would probably have gone with him. As it is, things have been smoothed over for now, although who knows how long that will hold. On the pitch, things look promising. Valencia had the third best underlying numbers in La Liga last season, with the best defence and the fourth-best attack. If Marcelino’s side can turn five or six of the league-high 16 draws they were involved in last season into victories, can manage to get something approaching a full season out of Goncalo Guedes (that is starting to become somewhat of a perennial if), and if new signing Maxi Gómez provides that little something different in attack they were missing at times last season, they could easily finish in the top three. It is, of course, pretty easy to play that game the other way: if Dani Parejo gets injured, if Guedes again struggles with his fitness, if Jasper Cliessen proves to be a downgrade on last season’s goalkeeper Neto... We’ll just have to see how things shake out.

Will Monchi’s Sevilla reshuffle bear fruit?

Sevilla’s business this summer has made it perfectly clear that Monchi has little respect for the work done by the two men who filled his sporting director role during his time at Roma. He has neglected to sign any of three loanees the club had options on, has loaned out two of last summer’s signings and has sold off Quincy Promes for a near €5-million loss. In their place, he has brought in 11 new faces at a combined cost of over €120 million. There is also a new man in the Sevilla dugout: Julen Lopetegui. By the underlying numbers, Sevilla were actually the second-best team in Spain last season. As I’ve said before, I think Pablo Machín was unfortunate to lose his job in March given the imbalances within the squad. The raft of new arrivals, which includes some profiles they were lacking last season, has improved depth, and I like some of their pickups, especially Joan Jordán. But I’m unconvinced their starting XI will necessarily be that much stronger, particularly without Pablo Sarabia (fifth in the league in terms of xG contribution (xG + xGA) last season), now of Paris Saint-Germain. Stay tuned for stories from the rest of the league coming tomorrow.   Header image courtesy of the Press Association.