Month: August 2014

Liverpool 2 vs 1 Southampton (17th August 2014) I was coaching underage football earlier today, so haven't had a chance to see the game yet.

• On first viewing, it looks like Tadic and Bertrand were involved a lot down Southampton's left side, especially during the first half. This resulted in Manquillo having more defensive responsibilities than Johnson on the other side.
• It took until after the hour mark for Sturridge to be involved in significant passing movements.

Interested in what others see in the viz.  Every time it loops round you can see something else to catch your eye. Click on the viz to open in a larger window

Cast your mind back to last season, just briefly, and try to recall Mourinho's Chelsea team. Impressive structure, solid, efficient, and able to grind out some spectacular results in the most difficult away games of them all. Remember the brilliantly stoic tactics that Mourinho employed away at Man City and Liverpool.

Tactically, Mourinho still had it, and he's still got it. But what Mourinho didn't have last season was the horses to play in a flexible way when the game, or game situation, demanded it. Chelsea, in what some called a season of transition, didn't have the squad depth or the variety of player needed to combat the lesser teams in certain away games. The issues regarding Chelsea's squad makeup and flexibility also extended to some home games where Chelsea began to suffer problems against teams that "parked the bus".

Maybe I am being both overly kind to Mourinho and overly critical to the makeup of the squad, but it felt to me that he just didn't have the variety and quality of players that he needed to break down all different types of opposition. But he has now. Players of the highest quality have been signed, the first XI looks vastly improved and the narrative surrounding Chelsea now sounds something like this: No Excuses.

13/14 Numbers

That is a lot of numbers and a lot of #2 rankings for those numbers. Despite Chelsea lacking in a few key areas of the playing staff (creative mid, striker) Mourinho managed to get some mighty fine underlying numbers from the players he had.

This was a pretty darn good Chelsea team. Chelsea in 2014/15 should be even better.

My God Fabregas looks older.

INS

Fabregas 33,00 Mill. €

Diego Costa 38,00 Mill. €

Felipe Luis 20,00 Mill. €

Drogba Free

Pasalic 2,50 Mill. €

Courtois & Zouma return from loan spells

Outs

Luiz 49,50 Mill. €

Lukaku 35,36 Mill. €

Demba Ba 6,00 Mill. €

Various loans for youth players.

Chelsea just about broke even. That they did so while upgrading positions of absolute need and selling players that likely won't harm the quality of the first XI is astounding. It's strong work and credit where credit is due.

The Squad

The loss of Lukaku and De Bruyne, both top draw prospects, will hurt in the long term but it raised substantial funds in order to do the important work of improving Chelsea in the present.

Diego Costa fills an immediate need in the striker position and will surely score if his fitness holds up. Fabregas was a creative wizard in his first spell in the PL, but has age caught up with a player who was subjected to boos and, most painfully, sarcastic jeers from Barcelona fans last season? Fabregas has likely got a good few years left yet and should be a fine signing. Courtois might be the 2nd best GK in the world, Zouma adds depth and promise in the CB position and Felipe Luis is a specialist left back who Mourinho should be able to quickly trust.

Chelsea have greater depth and quality now and this should be a squad better able to cope with the grind of a typical Premier League season.

The First XI

This is only a guesstimate, remember! Maybe Fabregas drops in where Ramires is and Oscar fills the position vacated by Fabregas. Maybe Schurrle plays instead of Willian. Point is Chelsea have midfield options now, options enough to tweak the shape and formation of the first XI if needs be.

Management

Hard, unfair, loved by his players, a proper bastard, tactical genius. These are just some of the words that could be used to describe Mourinho but the only word the man himself would be interested in would be winner. The mainstream media tell us that this is a big season for Mourinho, that there'll be no excuses this time, that he has his player upgrades, that he has settled back in at Chelsea once more.

Maybe that narrative is fair. Managers at the top clubs now are on a short leash, though Mourinho's would be a little longer than others might be, and the pressure to win now exists at Chelsea just as it does at Man City. Mourinho has the experience, the character and, above all, the brilliant systems to win now.

Will the arrivals of Fabregas,the creative hub, and Diego Costa, the spearhead, lead to a change in setup or approach from Mourinho? Probably, but any change won't be drastic and Chelsea should still use that killer counter attack option that gave the big teams such trouble last season.

Maybe Fabregas' arrival leads to better game management and more control of games. Maybe Costa is the forward Chelsea have been looking for to maximize that insanely good attacking midfield band.

Mourinho is pragmatic and adaptable and how he tweaks his setup to accommodate the aforementioned players will be a fascinating thing to watch.

Expectations

To win the league, semi-finals of the CL. Domestic cup wins would be nice but who are we kidding!

Conclusion

Chelsea were a mighty good team last season who posted some mighty good numbers, but a lack of personnel options and a misfiring forward line handicapped Mourinho's title challenge. Chelsea, with an improved starting XI and some increased depth, should get a lot closer to winning the PL title in 14/15 but will it be enough?

I think the title race will be pretty close this year and the two, almost inseparable, teams will be Man City and Chelsea, which will be a surprise to no-one. But, Chelsea will fall just short of a Man City team who boast unrivaled squad depth and forward punch. Man City's strength isn't the only reason I think Chelsea will fall just short.

I still believe Chelsea have depth issues at center forward where the drop off in talent after Diego Costa is alarming. Torres is a ghost, Drogba was declining 3 years years ago and not much should be expected from him. If Costa suffers more injury troubles then the scoring burden falls to one of those faded talents or to a man like Schurrle. It's not ideal and it is very likely that it could be an issue for Chelsea at some point this season.

The other area of weakness may be in the center of defense. Cahill and Terry are a fine, fine partnership but if injury strikes to one of the pair then Chelsea are left with Ivanovic and 19 yo Kurt Zouma.

Chelsea have improved their first XI and signed players who should add at least a few points to the tally Chelsea posted lasted year but issues regarding positional depth and Chelsea's ability to cope with injuries in defense and attack lead me to think that Chelsea will finish in 2nd place.

But it'll be close. I think.

Liverpool choked.

I watched the Chelsea game. We all watched the Chelsea game. We all saw Gerrard slip, Ba score, and that was that.

Markovic (FWD) Lallana (AM) Rickie Lambert (FWD) Dean Lovren (CB) Can (MC/LB) Moreno (LB) Manquillo (FB)

Luis Suarez (FWD) Iago Aspas (FWD)

How do you replace the irreplaceable?

It is my opinion that Liverpool had more than a fair wind behind them last season in their attempt at lifting the Premier League title. Their lack of European football was a huge positive for them as it allowed The Reds to concentrate on their quest for domestic trophies. In the final half of the season, they were generally able to choose from a full deck; this changed with Jordan Henderson’s late sending off against Man City resulting in his suspension for the final games of the season*. Contrast that with Man City’s failure to keep Aguero, Yaya Toure, Fernandinho and even David Silva fit during the final couple of months. *I have seen it mentioned recently that Brendan Rodgers has attributed their title failing, at least in part, to the unavailability of Henderson in those final few games. However, the main driver for my assertion that Liverpool over achieved last season was their shooting performance. I’ll be very surprised if they are able to replicate last season’s form in front of goal. Their shot quality was very good as they chalked up the second best average Expected Goal value per shot (just ahead of Man United, Arsenal and Chelsea but behind Man City), however there are a couple of numbers that ring alarm bells for me when I assess their chances for this coming season. Just 20.5% of their shots were blocked last season. Not only was this the lowest percentage of blocked shots in the Premier League last season, but it was also the lowest figure for any Premier League team over the last four seasons. As can be seen in this plot below (which I originally published in my end of season Liverpool review), there is no correlation between a team’s percentage of blocked shots from one season to the next. It is therefore my opinion that Liverpool will not be able to rely on having as few blocked shots next term as they enjoyed last year. The second note of caution comes when we look at the returns from their goalscorers last season. Liverpool’s four highest league scorers, namely Suarez, Sturridge, Gerrard and Sterling all over-performed in terms of goals scored versus the Expected Goals total that their shots suggested. All the analytical work done so far in looking at the repeatability of a player’s under or over conversion compared to ExpG in a season has shown that there is almost no correlation with how they’ll perform the next season. That too, is another pointer to suggest that Liverpool probably achieved as much as they could have done last season from the chances they had. And lest we forget, Martin Skrtel also chipped in with 7 goals last season. I think that’s another one for the “unlikely to happen next season” drawer.   Defensively On the defensive side of the ball, Liverpool will surely be disappointed with the fact that they conceded too many shots for a top class team; there were seven teams that gave up fewer shots than them in the League. It would be remiss not to mention the huge positive from a defensive point of view; the average quality of opposition shots allowed was low, with just 35% of their shots against coming from the Prime Zone. Still, I’m sure that the volume of shots they conceded last season is one part of the game that Rodgers will have been working on during the summer break. Although Liverpool had the title within their grasp last season, I had them as the third best team; behind City and Chelsea. Throw in the loss of Suarez, the distraction of European football and a likely stronger challenge from Man United, Arsenal and Tottenham this season and I think that Liverpool could struggle to capture one of the four Champions League slots.

Hey champions! So you think you can retain your Premier League crown in the 14/15 season? Well, history is against you (the title has been retained on just 7 occasions in PL history) and big bad Chelsea, managed by Jose Mourinho, look ominously strong after a summer transfer window that cannot be classed as anything but a roaring success.

Liverpool will attempt to challenge again, although the loss of Suarez and European football may may hinder any realistic attempt to do so. Man United have replaced the lackluster figure of Moyes with van Gaal, an upgrade, so we are told, and it is possible that Arsenal may improve with the smart additions they have made thus far.

The business of retaining the Premier League title is going to be anything but easy work.

Manchester City have a group of varied challengers to fend off, and they will have to do so with having made just one major signing this summer. Depth additions have been made to the squad, small tweaks, but this has been a summer of calm for Manchester City . No big changes, no upheaval. This seems to be the preferred way of business for the Pellegrini/Begiristain partnership, and it is one that succeeded in a quiet, yet pleasing to the eye, manner in 2013/14.

What Happened Last Season?

2013/14 League Finish: 1st!

Goal Difference: 1st (+65/0.73% Goal%)

TSR: 1st (65.3%)

SoTR: 1st (66.4%)

PDO: 1st (112.1)

Others: 1st in shots against at 9.5 per game, the lowest mark in the last 5 years in EPL, 1st in time spent winning, 2nd in attacking zone time, 1st in non-D zone time, 1st in final third pass ratio. 1st in many adjusted metrics. It goes on and on.

Manchester City weren't a great team from the get go in 13/14, they grew into their skin, the players gradually responded to Pellegrini's system and as the season wore not only were the topping a lot of the stats categories but they were regarded as the best team in the league. Well, that was until Liverpool's remarkable winning streak looked like being enough to beat City to the title.

In the end City's squad depth, range of options and overwhelming firepower was enough to capture the title. The stats told us Manchester City were the best team in the league and that is how it turned out. The trick for Pellegrini for the upcoming season is to recreate what made Manchester City great in 13/14.

Looking Ahead To 14/15

INS

Mangala £32-45m (who knows!)

Sagna £0 free, but likely substantial wages.

Caballero £4.4 - 6m

Fernando £12.6m

Zuculini £2.5m

Lampard Loan

OUTS

Rodwell £10m

Lescott Free

Pantilimon Free

Barry £2m ish (option)

This is a pretty calm summer, really. Depth signings in Fernando, Lampard, Sagna, Caballero and the one big buy in Mangala, who not many people know too much about.

Few outs, but I'd expect Javi Garcia to leave shortly, Sinclair and Richards are very real possibilities to leave, too. Many journo's expect Nastasic to leave now that a #1 left center back has been bought.

Squad Continuity

Going into the summer Man City had very few immediate needs to fill. Maybe a center back to play left side due to Demichelis' age and Nastasic's injury riddled season. Competition for Hart, a back-up right back. An upgrade for Javi Garcia. A replacement for Toure if he left, but birthdays, flash cars, insane agents and bereavements were all overcome and Toure stayed.

That wasn't a huge shopping list: one starter, a tactical option in midfield and some depth in net and at right back.

Man City will retain a good number of the title squad and will hope that squad continuity and increased contributions from men like Jovetic and Aguero, who missed significant time, will boost their title chances. Man City had a mighty fine squad last season, probably the PL's best, and they have added one sure-fire upgrade and an option for the midfield in those big away games.

Health will once again be a big factor for Manchester City. The core of Kompany, Toure, Silva and Aguero played just 295 minutes together in the 2013/14 PL. It is not unreasonable to suggest that Man City may have seen some kind of slight improvement in 13/14  had this core featured more often. Fewer injuries to these key players, along with better fitness from Jovetic, will be a key factors in deciding just how successful 14/15 will be.

It was a quiet summer, but one which will see Man City start the season with a better squad than last year. It is a squad which is likely the best in the Premier League.

Example:

Management

13/14 was likely a steep learning curve for manager, Manuel Pellegrini. Early season away losses didn't help, but calm words and calm heads at that time steadied the ship and in the end Man City's quality, and the manager's systems shone through. Pellegrini is a fine coach who prefers a hybrid 4-4-2 system but that preference doesn't override pragmatism.

Pellegrini, towards the end of the season at least, used a lone striker system and a 3 in midfield which all went against the rigid 4-4-2 man that we were told he was. Coaches in general are pretty smart.  They know their players, they know their systems - and the opposition's systems - and they will do both what is good for the team and what it takes to win. Pellegrini is no different.

Pellegrini had lights out attacking talent and created a system that enabled the players to maximize their strengths. The defensive system was very good too, but some untimely individual mistakes likely undercut any praise that should of gone Pellegrini's way for those systems. In fact, City allowed the fewest shots against per game in the last five seasons of the Premier League and it went largely unnoticed amongst the avalanche of praise for City's attacking play.

I'm not sure too much will change this season in regards to tactics or setup. Jovetic's health should allow some more rest time for Aguero and increased squad depth should allow for some rotation for men like Zabaleta, Fernandinho, and Toure.

Fernando's signing gives City the option of running a 3 in midfield: Fernando as the true holding player, which will allow the devastating talents of Toure and Fernandinho to roam around the pitch to create and destroy. It is possible that Pellegrini only opts for a midfield 3 in the big away games, but when he does play all three of the aforementioned players together it is likely going to be too much for whichever opposition they face.

Hell, Toure and Fernandinho were too much playing as a 2. As a 3, these guys should be sensational.

Expectations

One domestic cup win, the title and a minimum of the quarterfinals in the Champions League? Does that sound reasonable, or too much? Maybe the CL bar is too low, but it's a mighty tough competition.

Conclusion

An improved squad, players who will be even more familiar with Pellegrini's systems and a manager who, in his 2nd year in England, should have a better grasp on the quirks and surprises of the Premier League.

This Man City squad is constructed to win now. It is not a young squad and the window to win it all is shrinking with each season as the core of the first XI ages. Thing is, this Man City squad is slap bang in the middle of that "win now" window and it is difficult to see, bar Chelsea's strong challenge, how Man City won't retain their PL crown.

Chelsea will run Man City close but the best squad in the league should have enough depth and the manager should have enough know how to finish as champions.

Predicted finish: 1st.

  It appears that Liverpool have completed the transfer of Alberto Moreno from Sevilla, and they'll hope the young Spaniard can become their first choice left back this season. I thought I would take a quick look at his heatmaps from last season, and see how they compare with Liverpool's current left back. Moreno Attacking Heatmap 2013/14 I was immediately struck at how narrow his attacking touches, which will primarily be passes, were for Sevilla in last season's La Liga.   I know that Liverpool had a few players that played left back last season, but Jon Flanagan seemed to be the guy that received most pitch time in that position.  I wanted to compare the positions that Moreno made his attacking touches with those made by Flanagan.   Flanagan Attacking Touches 2013/14 From the above image, it is obvious that as well as playing on the left side of defence, Flanagan also appeared on the right side of the Liverpool defence from time to time.  However, even when we just look at the touches that Flanagan had on the left side of the pitch it can be seen that he had possession of the ball in areas closer to the centre of the pitch.  The areas Moreno operated in appear to be slightly different, and it looks like the Sevilla signing will provide Liverpool with more attacking width as his touches are clustered in a very narrow zone along the sideline.   Defending Heatmaps I'll start with Moreno's defending heatmap, and follow it with Flanagan's for last season:   Although the shape of the heatmaps are broadly similar ,when their respective teams were not in possession of the ball last season Moreno was more likely to get involved higher up the pitch than Flanagan.  This fact does not appear to be a function of how the two teams played last season, as Sevilla were not an especially aggressive pressing side who majored on applying pressure in an attempt to win the ball back quickly.   Hopefully the above will give Liverpool fans an idea of what to expect from their newest signing.  

For my Arsenal preview last year, I pretended Arsenal hired Jerry Maguire to help their difficult summer signings along. At the time I wrote the piece, the only Arsenal signing the entire summer was Yaya Sanogo, and they clearly needed help. The preview was an enjoyable diversion, because I was not optimistic about the season ahead.

It helped my mood when they signed one of my favorite players in Mesut Ozil right before the deadline closed, but let’s be honest – Arsenal’s summer and January transfers last season were a disaster.

In 2013-14, Arsenal got lucky.

What? How can a club that had approximately a million injuries over the course of the season be considered lucky?

Because they finished 4th.

But they always finish 4th! In fact, for half the season they were leading the league.

Yeah, but they usually don’t  finish 4th like this. And that whole leading the league thing was a fluke of the schedule – they had the bulk of their hard games in the 2nd half of the year. Bear with me, and I’ll explain where I’m coming from and why it matters. I just want to make something really clear before we carry on with ye olde season preview:

If Arsenal perform like last season, they won’t finish 4th again.

The Scary Trend

This is the shot differential trend for Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, and Manchester United. These are the teams that traditionally finish in the top 4 in recent times, and their trending makes for damned interesting reading.

Two of those teams have had fairly precipitous declines in the last five seasons. Analysts were baffled when United won their Premier League in 12-13 with shot numbers that looked more like a midtable side. They were far less baffled when Manchester United plunged to 7th the following season. The loss of Fergie hurt, but unless Man United acted completely differently last summer, another title chase with that stats profile was going to be impossible.

Notice Arsenal’s line intersects the Manchester United line last season? The one where they finished 7th in the league? Yeah... that’s not good.

If you want further worry material, I can tell you there were 40 clubs over the last five seasons in the big 5 leagues in Europe to finish with a shot differential of +1.5 to +2.5 (Arsenal’s was +1.9).

The average finishing position of those teams was 7.65.

In only 25% of those seasons did the club manage to make the Champions League.

In only one of those cases did they win the league (Man United had a shot differential of +2 in 12-13).

Shots For: 13.78 (9th!)

SOT For: 5.6 (4th)

Shots Conceded: 11.9 (5th)

SOT Conceded: 4.16 (9th!)

Goal Difference: +27 (4th)

I’m sticking to my guns here. There was a lot of good luck in how results played out last season, but Arsenal were rarely dominant and would be in serious danger of regressing out of 4th place this season without major improvements.

Thankfully...

Incomings

Alexis Sanchez (FWD)

Joel Campbell (FWD)

Matthiu Debuchy (RB)

Callum Chambers (RB/CB)

David Ospina (GK)

Arsenal have finally bought another forward in Alexis Sanchez, and they did it at a price that represents a big value versus what other clubs have paid for players with similar scoring rates.

Back in early June, I pegged Sanchez as the player who was potentially available that I would most like Arsenal to buy (last year I had Higuain... SO CLOSE). Incredibly, Wenger went out and did just that. Sanchez is a huge talent both as a wide forward and in a deeper playmaking role, and one of the things that makes him so difficult for defenses to mark is that he transitions between the two roles seamlessly. The question is whether Sanchez is big enough to play as a center forward in the Premier League. He's very muscular, but at only 1.69m tall, most of the league will tower over him.

It remains to be seen whether Wenger will play him regularly through the middle, and despite preseason tinkering, it might require Theo Walcott to be fully recovered before it happens. Regardless, Sanchez is a massive upgrade up front and something Arsenal fans have been crying out for for years.

Debuchy’s signing I am indifferent toward – age and performance in the Premier League suggest he’s barely more than adequate, but Arsenal jettisoned both of their right backs this summer, so they needed reinforcements and Debuchy isn’t bad. Random stat: Of all the fullbacks in the sample I used for the fullback radar, Debuchy had 3 of the top 10 seasons in aerial wins. Sagna was good, but no fullback in Europe is better than Debuchy in the air.

The Calum Chambers signing I loved.  Chambers doesn’t turn 20 until January, but he’s already performing above the Premier League average as a fullback. Further progression in that role or as a center back would see him rapidly grow into one of the best defenders in the league, and for a very reasonable £12Mish plus add-ons.

Joel Campbell technically isn’t a new signing, but this seems likely to be his first season on the Arsenal roster after tooling around Europe for the past couple of seasons waiting for a work permit. As we saw at the World Cup and also against Manchester United in the Champions League, Campbell can be a handful. He’s fast, has surprisingly good hold-up play for a smaller man, and shares the usual Arsenal flair for creative passing. After being a big question mark for making the squad, it looks as though he’s more likely to still be in London than someone like Podolski come the end of the transfer window.

Outgoings

Bacary Sagna (RB)

Lukasz Fabianski (GK)

Thomas Vermalaen (CB)

Nicklas Bendtner (FWD) C

arl Jenkinson (RB, Loan)

Five years ago, Sagna might have been the best right back in the league. By last year, age had clearly taken its toll, and he just didn’t have the legs to be the dynamic player Arsenal need these days.

The artist formerly known as Flappyhandski had grown into a capable goalkeeper over the last two seasons, but you can hardly blame him for wanting a regular starting job now.

Vermalaen spent most of his last two seasons injured or watching more consistent, less criminally-out-of-position center backs from the bench. Model professional? Yes. Champions League caliber center back? Not so much.

Carl Jenkinson gets to spend a year tutoring under Big Sam, which is a form of punishment, but he needs the playing time or he will never improve.

Nicklas Bendtner turned into The Lost Samurai for his final season at Arsenal, and posted a jawdropping goalscoring rate of 1.15 non-penalty goals per 90. Let this be a lesson in the dangers of small samples sizes and sub effects. Big Nick only played 160 league minutes, and he looked fatter and lazier than ever when he did play. Just go away already, ya giant waste of talent.

Lingering Needs

I’ll address the big question in a minute, but Arsenal likely need one more player for depth at center back, and they certainly need a physical defensive midfielder. After being excellent in his first two seasons, Arteta started to show some age last year and Flamini, though useful, was far from great. At this point in their careers, neither are the long-term solution Arsenal need in that role.

William Carvalho has been the hottest name on the rumor mill to fill this role, but Wenger might just wait until late in the window to see if there are bargains (like Lyon captain Maxime Gonalons) that pop up. One thing is certain: Sami Khedira is not a defensive midfielder. I said it. Wenger said it. The stats said it. Just let it go and move along.

Center back depth will definitely get addressed before the window closes (Wenger isn’t THAT crazy and couldn’t possibly justify it with the amount of money Arsenal still have in the bank).

Whether that center back will be any good is another question entirely.

The Big Question

Will health and the additions of Sanchez and Campbell improve Arsenal’s shot numbers? And in a similar vein – do Arsenal still need to sign another forward?

A lot of this comes down to what you (and more importantly, what Wenger) think of Yaya Sanogo. Physically, Sanogo is ready. His first step isn’t quick, but he runs fast, and is big enough that non-elite defenders just bounce off of him. He’s also 6’4 – that type height and athleticism can cause a ton of problems for defenders in the air.

Technically?

We don’t know. I lean toward yes – he’s had a number of games where he has not looked out of place against good competition, and is so young that there’s still plenty of time for him to get better. I particularly like him to wreak havoc as a super sub throughout the course of this season. It’s a classic case where you have to trust Wenger’s evaluation because we have no other choices anyway.

This is the same Wenger whose transfer purchases have put Arsenal into this situation in the first place. I’m not sayin’... I’m just sayin’.

What we do know is that Walcott and Sanchez can both be awesome scorers when healthy, usually from wide positions. That’s damned hard to do. We also know that Olivier Giroud is painfully average at scoring and converting goals (even with awesome attacking passers around him), and his key pass numbers aren’t nearly impressive enough to make up for this.

And finally we know that unless Theo is healthy, Arsenal still have a weird hole on the left wing where they either need to play Santi Cazorla (who profiles more like a midfielder now than a wide forward, especially at age 29), hope that Ox is ready to start turning brilliant athleticism into regular scoring output, or fill it with Lukas Podolski, who has the remarkable ability to barely be involved throughout entire games and yet somehow wind up on the score sheet.

Conclusion

The problem with Arsenal’s shots trend is that usually by this point a manager gets fired. I’ve never seen what happens when you see a gradual decline in performance over the course of years, and because of that, I have no idea if Arsenal can recover to elite heights under the same manager. Part of this is certainly down to available talent. Injuries plus the exodus of star players year after year drained last season’s Arsenal talent to possibly the lowest point it’s been under Arsene Wenger. Mesut Ozil was a star addition, but adding a single star back to the mix wasn’t enough to stem the tide. This summer has seen a much more comprehensive set of purchases that will definitely make Arsenal better.

Good enough to get 4th? Probably. 3rd? Maybe?

To challenge for the title? Even with the improvements that can be expected from Arsenal’s young core of players, they are a star forward and boss defensive midfielder short of that.

Then again, the transfer window is still open and there’s plenty of money in the bank, maybe...

Nah. It’s still Arsene Wenger.

Prediction: Assuming Wenger fixes the shot trends, 4th. If their stats look like last season... Uh oh.

  What's new? At £4m, Muhamed Besic comes in as a low-budget, high-potential signing to 'bolster' midfield and defence. Flying wide-forward Gerard Deulofeu returns to Barcelona to be replaced by another loan - Chelsea's Christian Atsu who played at Vitesse last year. Moves for last year's loanees Gareth Barry and Romelu Lukaku have been made permanent. Everton has splurged about £30m (the majority of the budget) to keep hold of players already embedded in the side.   How did Everton line up last season? The graphic below shows the main first XI and passing networks. The bigger the circle, the more touches the player had. The thicker the arrows, the more passes in that direction. For scale purposes, it's all per 90 mins:     It's pretty clear how Barry became the hub of the side last season and why Martinez sought to make the move permanent. The player wasn't short of offers it seems, which is presumably why Everton had to suck up a 3-year deal to secure the 33 year-old. The build up is much shorter these days. Howard is as likely to distribute to the centre backs as he is to lump it. McCarthy is the continuity man, content to knock the ball sideways to Barry and Coleman who work the ball forward. Also apparent is that the left hand side is still pretty huge. Where the left side is often intricate, the right hand side is more crash-bang-wallop with moves often ending at the feet of Barkley and Mirallas. Watching games last season you'd often see Lukaku's frustration at these two (especially Barkley) failing to spot runs and going it alone. More on this later.   Will the line-up change with the new boys? It'll likely be as you were to begin with. But with League Cup games and Europa fixtures to negotiate in the early months both new boys will be featuring if fit. Martinez was very comfortable rotating players in and out last season. What with injuries, suspensions and loan restrictions none of the midfield or forwards were overworked minutes-wise. I can see the burden being shared around again.   People were worried that the defence wouldn't hold under Martinez. How wrong were they? Yep, only a goal a game conceded was in line with the previous few years. However, here at Statsbomb we're dedicated (ching) to bringing you the underlying numbers that are more meaningful in the long term. The graphic below shows the the increase in total shots conceded and Expected Goals Against last season. This is almost always bad news:     Thanks to the work of Colin Trainor and Constantinos Chappas, we're able to compare defensive actions visually. What we saw under Moyes was a super-concentrated effort to defend central 'prime' areas. Content with a draw or a 1-goal lead Everton would often shell defensively in order to see the game out. It was uncomfortable edge of the seat stuff.    

That hasn't been the case under Martinez. There was a willingness to go toe to toe at the end of games last season using the likes of Mirallas, Barkley and Deulofeu to counter. It was a lot easier to watch. As we've seen , the underlying numbers suffered for this more open style. I've written previously about Tim Howard's huge performance last season. Unfortunately for the Blues, history shows that such over-performance isn't sustainable. Howard was undeniably good last season, but luck also played a huge factor. His save% from the prime Zone 1 area was 57%. League average is 44% - a keeper has more chance of callling heads or tails on a coin toss than saving a shot from here. Basically, the numbers suggest it's far more likely that more of the same next season will result in nearer 50 goals conceded than 40. Unless the shot count goes down, expect Everton to get stung a little more often.

What about the attack?

Lukaku is a huge signing. The indications are that he's on an upward slope. However, with Kone still yet to play a game since his knee injury in November, the only contingency at present is Steven Naismith. Naismith's brain makes up for a lack of footballing aestheticism. His movement and finishing is good. I really like him, but he's not up to being a starter for any length of time if Everton have serious pretensions of kicking on. That said, if I was in charge he'd be getting good minutes as a substitute on an almost weekly basis.

Everton's other problem is what to do with Mirallas and Barkley. Both are super talented, but neither has the final output that marks them out as super special. A goal tally of 14 goals between them last season just doesn't seem enough.

I read somewhere that at the press conference announcing Barkley's new contract, the youngster stated he wanted to play more games in central midfield. Martinez apparently raised his eyes skyward. The kid might actually have a point. Here's Barkley's shot chart for last season. Yellow dots are goals, blue dots were saved, black dots were off target:

    His shot on target rate was fairly abysmal. Too often for Barkley, shooting is a last resort when he's off balance, out of ideas and the chance to play a team-mate in has gone. On top of this, he is still yet to record a Premier League assist. For someone in 'the hole', this simply isn't good enough. The problem is that every now and then he goes and does something so ridiculously good (Swansea, Newcastle, Man City) that a lot gets forgiven and forgotten. Martinez needs to work out the pay-off between allowing time for potential to develop and pushing the team on results-wise. The shooting story for Mirallas is a similar one. The Belgian blazes away with a scatter gun approach. Nominally stationed on the right, Kev's best creative work is done out there. But being on that side creates problems with shooting angles for a right footed player:     At Olympiakos he scored bags of goals while mostly stationed out left or through the middle. Everton still haven't found Mirallas' best fit. He'll flit left or sometimes go through the middle to varying success. I like the signing of Atsu. He profiles a lot like Deulofeu. He can beat players, and likes to take a shot but unlike the boy from Barcelona, he also has the ability to look up from his boots every now and again. Note the higher pass completion rate and key pass numbers:       Conclusion? Unless Everton stem the tide of shots then defence is going to get worse. Factor in the ageing of Jagielka and Distin who rely so much on mobility to do their thang, then look at the possible replacements. Alcaraz isn't mobile, is the wrong side of 30 and is rarely fit. Stones, generally excellent on the ball doesn't look like he can defend well enough yet at this level. Let's cross our fingers and hope for a Coleman-style overnight transformation on that score. Barry is 33. Is he going to be able to get around the pitch to the same effect?  Besic is beautiful on the ball and loves getting a challenge in but looking at him here, he's suspect positionally. McCarthy has got a lot of defensive work on this season unless Gibson can get his arse off the treatment table for a spell. Positively, I do expect the attack to pick up the defensive slack but that would rely heavily on Lukaku staying healthy. Getting Kone back ASAP would be a major bonus, especially if he can retain mobility following this his second major knee injury. Don't rule out a move for a striker on deadline day, though.   Prediction? 5th-7th again. Probably 6th.    

Don’t “pull a Spurs.”

All offseason, whenever football clubs were reported to be selling a star to finance new purchases, pundits have warned against the risk of repeating Tottenham Hotspur’s struggles in the 2013-2014 season. The massive sale of Gareth Bale netted enough money to add striker Roberto Soldado, attacking midfielders Erik Lamela and Christian Eriksen and central midfielders Paulinho and Etienne Capoue. Despite all these additions, Spurs finished sixth, and with just a plus-four goal difference they were possibly fortunate to even finish there.

The narrative that developed was simple. You add all these new players, you will struggle to get them to jell, and you will not have an effective team until they do. I think this narrative fails to account for much of what happened with Spurs last year.

First, note what is missing from the pile of big-money acquisitions listed above. No defenders. Spurs chairman Daniel Levy did shell out for Romanian defender Vlad Chiriches, but this purchase was financed by the sale of Steven Caulker to Cardiff City. Tottenham entered the season counting on oft-injured Younes Kaboul and over-the-hill Michael Dawson as key members of their center back corps. They had no backup for left fullback Danny Rose, instead depending on their best defender Jan Vertonghen to cover if Rose got injured. When Rose went down to turf toe in a Spurs’ first Europa League group match, it started an injury cascade as Vertonghen was shifted out wide and then inevitably hurt himself. Against Liverpool in a crucial December league match, Spurs had to field two out-of-position defenders against the Premier League’s best attacking side. The 5-0 shellacking that followed was not entirely surprising given the lineup. Second, the tactical decisions of managers Andre Villas-Boas and Tim Sherwood played key roles in Spurs’ poor season. Early in the season, Tottenham were a solid defensive side who struggled to create big chances in attack. Of Spurs best 13 defensive performances by expected goals, eight came in the first 11 weeks of the season.

However, this defensive solidity was not to last. As his team struggled to score, Villas-Boas let up on his defensive press, but did not replace it with a new strategy. At the same time, Jan Vertonghen sprained his ankle and left Spurs without both their best center back and their only remaining left back. The team collapsed, leading to the home loss to Liverpool that cost Villas-Boas his job. A competent new manager might have instilled a new defensive scheme to recover what was lost, but instead Spurs hired Tim Sherwood. The team’s worst defensive games by expected goals almost all happened either in the final stage of AVB’s managerial tenure or under Sherwood.

The moves by Spurs chairman Daniel Levy this offseason have suggested he saw the same problems with his club. Tim Sherwood was sacked and replaced by Mauricio Pochettino, a manager who has made his name running a high-energy press. The club’s purchases this offseason—Ben Davies and Michel Vorm from Swansea City, Eric Dier from Sporting Lisbon—have added needed depth to the defense. A backup right back in DeAndre Yedlin is probably going to follow, and Spurs are further looking to add a starting center back in Mateo Musacchio if third-party ownership issues can be worked out in time. Plans are in place, then, to solve the defensive problems which doomed Spurs in 2013-2014.

Will these plans actually succeed? In terms of fixing the defense, it seems likely. Pochettino has a strong track record. His Southampton allowed 46 goals last year, sixth fewest in the Premier League. These Saints teams have recorded some incredible pressing numbers, forcing an opposition incomplete pass rate of over 28 percent. No other EPL side was above 23 percent and only five topped 20 percent. Further, the Spurs side he takes over was built for the pressing style of Andre Villas-Boas, so the talent at hand fits the manager well. Especially if Levy can land Musacchio or another starting caliber central defender, it seems likely that Tottenham will not suffer the kind of blowout losses that marred last season.

Whether Tottenham can actually return to true top four competition is another story. One can point to hopeful signs. Erik Lamela barely played for Tottenham, getting only sporadic Europa League opportunities under Villas-Boas before a back injury ended his season. Roberto Soldado and Paulinho were disappointing, but their struggles were heavily a function of poor finishing. If their inefficiency in front of goal was mostly just a slump, Spurs could easily find several more goals from the same players who struggled last year. Only Papiss Demba Cisse—who’s worthy of an article-length treatment himself—cost his team more goals with poor finishing.

There should be a few more goals for Spurs if Soldado and Paulinho stop malfunctioning in front of goal. The other attackers that could drive an improved season are Lamela, as noted, and youth striker Harry Kane. His expected goals adjusted shot rate, on a per minute basis, was second-best among all Premier League players with at least 400 minutes. The sample is small, but Kane shows potential to be a difference-maker for Tottenham.

Further, Pochettino has a history of stepping in and quickly producing better results without any major roster changes. He did so when he took over the Southampton job from Nigel Adkins. Adkins had the team playing acceptable football, but Poche quickly raised their level.

So, then, are Tottenham Hotspur finishing fourth? Maybe third? Probably not. The club has been reasonably well-run for several years, but Spurs’ consistent European contention has always been in part of a function of screw-ups by the top teams. Liverpool consistently punching below their weight has opened the door for Tottenham, and off seasons from Manchester City and Chelsea enabled Spurs to snatch fourth. In recent seasons according to the Swiss Ramble, Tottenham’s wage bill has run at about 60-70 percent of Liverpool’s, which is the lowest of the top five. Those other five have built teams for the 2014-2015 season that all, on paper, appear better than Spurs.

With Liverpool now playing up to that wage bill (and last year exceeding it), Tottenham will likely need fluke off seasons from two of the big six instead of one of the big five. The task has become much more difficult. It is possible that Pochettino could coax an unexpected huge season out of this roster. It is much more likely that Spurs finish sixth again as the economic power structure of the English Premier League reasserts itself.

All data provided by Opta unless otherwise noted.

According to most, last season was one of transition for Swansea, largely due to the controversial dismissal of Laudrup and appointment of the inexperienced Garry Monk. Although the threat of relegation was probably a bit overplayed by fans and pundits alike, a 12^th place finish was quite flattering after what was a difficult season for the Swans. Many were swift to blame their Europa adventure for lacklustre domestic performances, but if you offered fans a dream tie with Napoli and Premier League safety at the beginning of the season, they would have taken it without hesitation. There were positives, too. Wilfried Bony was a bit of a relevation and, more importantly, is (probably) staying despite seemingly infinite rumours about him. Jonjo Shelvey, a largely criticised signing, was also something of a surprise package and some (mainly me) still think it was weird that there were no calls for him to be in an England squad that, in hindsight, really did lack flair. 2013/14 season in stats:

• Finish: 12th
• Notable cup finishes: None really. A hard-fought tie with Napoli was unluckily lost, though.
• Total Shots Ratio: 0.518 (10^th)
• Shots on Target Ratio: 0.519 (10^th)
• Goal ratio: 0.495
• Expected goal ratio: 0.460

(Credit to Michael Caley, whose site I used.) In terms of TSR and SoTR, Swansea actually have higher ratios than I initially expected. Although obviously not fool-proof, they tend to reflect team quality, and Swansea’s stats are pretty good. Monk has repeatedly committed to sticking to ‘the Swansea way’ which, based on a combination of continued safety and indicative stats, does seem to be effective. Shot locations Thanks to Colin Trainor, we’re able to look at Swansea’s shot locations under Laudrup and Monk separately:   As it turns out, there’s not that much difference, but Monk didn’t really have time to implement any real tactical changes. The spike in shots from ‘very poor locations’ is probably entirely down to Monk’s willingness to play Shelvey regularly, while a slight decrease in shots taken is a likely consequence of his more defensive set-up against the bigger clubs. In relation to other teams, Monk’s Swansea is pretty similar to the league average in terms of shot locations, both offensively and defensively. Were he to play Gomis and Bony together consistently, I’d predict an increase in the percentage of shots from prime positions as the team focuses to supply the two. As an ex centre-back, one would expect Monk to work on limiting the amount of shots conceded in the most dangerous areas. The likely transfer of Napoli’s Fede Fernandez  should help improve the defence. Monk’s tactics The biggest problems for Monk in the upcoming season are likely of a tactical nature. A 4231 is the safest option but he has tinkered with a Rodgers-esque diamond midfield before and may be tempted to try something similar to accommodate both Bony and Gomis. A possession game, though, requires fluidity and a spine that I’m not so sure is possible in a two striker formation - Liverpool’s biggest successes with it came in a counter attacking capacity. What Monk decides on for the opener against Manchester United remains to be seen, but I’d sway towards keeping Gomis as a 60^th minute substitute in most games to maximise the effects of the striker depth. How good was Wilfried Bony? Bony’s stats are pretty impressive for a Premier League newcomer, but those who paid attention to his obscenely good season in the Eredivisie for Vitesse weren’t surprised by his performances. 16 league goals is an impressive haul, especially considering Laudrup played Michu over him at the beginning of the season. Wilf exploded after Christmas as he became accustomed to the league, and was more of a creative threat than some expected – his backheeled assist to De Guzman in particular springs to mind. Holding onto him is a pretty big deal. Personally, I’d like to see the team play to his feet more often next season and raise those key pass numbers. According to WhoScored, Swansea averaged only a single through ball a game, which seems a tad bizarre for a possession-based system. Bony may not be the fastest but I’d bet my life savings (not that much of a gamble) on him holding off defenders to get onto a pass played between the lines. 0.47 NPGA90 is good, but it's not top tier stuff and I'd like to see him score from open play more often next season. Transfers It says something that swapping Ben Davies, a local hero, for Gylfi garnered mostly positive reactions from fans. Bitter comparisons between Davies, Shaw and their relative prices aside, the best thing about the Sigurdsson signing is that fans know what to hope for. Simply put, during his loan spell at Swansea in 2012, Gylfi was unstoppable. Just look at that radar. 0.42 NPGA90 is only 0.05 less than Bony last season, while 3 key passes per 90 is in David Silva territory. Even if you factor in any possible regression at Spurs (where he was regularly played out of position), he’s only 24 and a partnership with Bony could be deadly. ‘Pundits’ have been awfully keen to point out that the Swans have lost three of their best players in Davies, Vorm and Michu, but fail to notice that the replacements are probably more than ample – Taylor, Fabianski and Gylfi/Gomis respectively. People forget that, before injury, Taylor was regularly linked to top clubs and played well in the Olympics. Arsenal fans have always said that Fabianski is underrated, and he was signed on a free. Michu is the most difficult to replace but, in a sense, he was already replaced by Bony last year, with Sigurdsson and Gomis in to plaster any cracks. Despite something of a Spanish exodus, it’s been a successful transfer season for Swansea. Jefferson Montero, who was a livewire for Ecuador at the World Cup, should bring some unpredictability to their attacking and Federico Fernandez, a runner up at the same tournament, looks likely to join. Swansea reportedly bid around £10m for Bafetimbi Gomis last summer, so to sign him on a free and keep Bony results in pretty fantastic striker depth for a midtable club. After putting up with Alvaro and Shechter in recent seasons, Swansea fans will just be happy to know that their second choice striker can actually score. Monk has publicly commented on the need for a defensive mid and possibly a right back, so expect at least one more signing before the end of the month (as I write this, rumours circulate in France that Swansea have just bid for Montpellier’s talented defensive mid, Benjamin Stambouli, who was linked with the likes of Sevilla and Dortmund recently). Conclusion Like all football fans, I regularly swing with bipolar trepidation when someone asks me what I predict for the season ahead, but I’m genuinely optimistic about the Swans’ chances of breaking into the top half again next season. Were this to happen, I hope it would bring an end to people ignorantly telling me how much they disagree with the Laudrup sacking as soon as they find out who I support (not that it bothers me...). With a 35-year-old manager, a unique style of play and a Chairman who is a fan, Swansea remain one of the most interesting clubs in the Premier League and I’m confident that they will stay there at the very least.