Ole Gunnar Solskjær is not the problem at Old Trafford, he's just not the solution

This May will mark seven years since Manchester United last won the Premier League title. And it is unlikely they will hold up the trophy anytime soon, either.

It’s a familiar story at this point. Upon Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement in 2013, United made a whole host of bad decisions, blowing a fortune on the wrong players and having them coached by the wrong managers. Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s gang are just the latest iteration of how they continue to relieve the same ugly chapter.

Currently fifth in the table, the underlying numbers show a modest improvement, but nothing drastic. An expected goal difference per game of +0.55 is an entirely respectable fourth-best in the division, with a fairly supercharged Leicester season keeping them out of the Champions League places.

 

 

It’s on the defensive end where their real strength lies. United are a good shot suppressing side, with their 10.22 conceded per game the fourth-best in England’s top flight. They combine this with a solid xG per shot conceded of 0.10, the sixth-best in the league and better than the other top shot suppressors. United are not supremely talented at any one aspect of defending, but the strong performance across the board makes them a tough side for any opponent to break down.

 

 

This represents a genuine improvement—and a necessary one— as United no longer have their defensive cheat code. In many of the dark post-Ferguson years, David De Gea almost single-handedly kept his team afloat. His decline has been exaggerated by some, but it’s been a while since he’s performed many heroic feats. He’s looked a smidgen above average this season, and with the difficulty in finding long-term repeatability in xG overperformance, United probably shouldn’t bank on him saving them a significant number of goals going forward.

 

 

United's defensive solidity has come at the cost of the attack just kind of . . . being there. Their1.26 xG per game is almost exactly the league average. Both their shot volume and quality are fairly mediocre. It’s all very whatever.

 

 

The one area where they do clearly excel is in counter-attacking shots. This intuitively makes sense given what we see on the pitch. United’s primary attacking weapons are Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial and Daniel James, while Jesse Lingard and Mason Greenwood have also stepped in this season. All primarily want to run into open space on the counter rather than build in possession in front of a deep block. A significant part of the side’s disappointing performances is that they don’t have obvious answers when denied the space to launch counter-attacks.

Perhaps surprisingly, Rashford is their primary creator in the final third. He leads the side in open play passes into the box per 90, well ahead of fellow attackers Martial and James, despite not being primarily thought of as a “passer”. That he’s added this to his game recently, in addition to his decent scoring and dribbling threat (as seen below), is impressive, especially given the underlying mediocrity of the team's attack. It’s so frustrating that he's now out injured, given he looks on the cusp of making the leap to being a genuine star.

 

 

Some might point out that Liverpool also have three attackers who primarily want to counter into open space, and they would be correct. Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mané and Roberto Firmino certainly thrive in counter opportunities much more so than when forced to break down a deep block. Jurgen Klopp’s side, though, have two critical advantages over United. The first is an expertly drilled counter-pressing situation aimed at forcing such opportunities rather than waiting for them to come naturally. The other is their use of the fullbacks as additional playmakers in wide areas, stretching the play and forcing opponents out of a narrow shape with their crossing threat. At right-back, United have Aaron Wan-Bissaka, a defender with a superb ability to shut down opposition wingers but real limitations in possession. He’s better at many things than his Liverpool counterpart Trent Alexander-Arnold, but there’s a humongous gap in quality on the ball when breaking down sides. On the other side, Luke Shaw isn’t incapable, but he lacks both the athleticism and technique that Andy Robertson possesses (Brandon Williams has shown some promise, but at this point nothing more than that). Solskjær’s side do not have the option of creating for their attackers through the fullbacks.

 

 

If creating for the attackers through the fullbacks is not a viable option, the work must come from the midfield. Let’s start with the elephant in the room. Paul Pogba has not played a lot of football for United this season and it seems possible that he won’t ever again do so. This would be a great shame, as Pogba is the only midfielder at the club with genuine vision and a consistent ability to move the ball forward into dangerous areas. In his brief appearances this year, mostly early in the season, he’s shown this, unlike everyone else at the club.

 

 

After Pogba, United’s player second in deep progressions per 90 is Fred. Yes, Fred is, in Pogba’s absence, the player most responsible for moving the ball into the final third for this team. Next is Ashley Young, but he's now at Inter Milan. It is obvious to pretty much everyone that these players are not the playmakers a club needs to compete at the highest level. This club just does not have playmakers in the side. There are many ways for a team to build well in possession and create opportunities, but no coach has yet devised a system that can consistently create dangerous chances without anyone who’s good on the ball.

This is, first and formost, a squad construction problem. At the very least, no one at the club seems to be under the illusion that this is a squad capable of challenging for major titles, or will be any time soon. After a number of big-name, high-price signings brought in under David Moyes, Louis van Gaal and José Mourinho, the club seem to have accepted that targeting mostly younger players who fit their desired style of football is a much more sustainable model. While none could be dubbed a huge success so far, the summer 2019 signings James, Wan-Bissaka and Harry Maguire have all broadly done what they were bought to do, and by this club’s recent standards that’s a big success. United do have a plan, and seem intent on sticking with it. That’s a marked change from 2013–18.

Having a plan is the first step, and it’s a big one. But the next step is having the expertise to execute it. United need to target and acquire the right younger players capable of high tempo attacking football. That their summer signings consisted of the highest-profile English centre-back, the most promising young right-back in last season’s Premier League not named Alexander-Arnold, and a young winger coached at the international level by Ryan Giggs does not suggest a great reservoir of knowledge lurking within their recruitment setup. The next challenge is to take these players and coach them into a proactive style that fits into the fast-paced, Ferguson-esque mould but who is capable of breaking down the many teams who will sit deep and allow United to keep possession. Solskjær has the aforementioned squad limitations to deal with, but even in their best performances, his side have played reactive, counter-attacking football all season. There has yet to be real evidence of a plan while in possession.

There are any number of talented people working in recruitment at football clubs who would jump at the chance to transform United's process. On the manager side, Mauricio Pochettino is currently sitting at home, while almost any manager not currently in an elite job would be interested in the challenge, prestige and salary delivered by Old Trafford. It’s not that Solskjær is doing a bad job, per se. It’s just that there’s no obvious reason to think he can build the side the club need to challenge for titles again. United are currently looking like a competent side, which seems like a miracle compared to recent years, but it’s still well short of what they need to get back to the top.

Stats of Interest

Sticking with Manchester United for a moment, it’s now been over a year since Jesse Lingard last scored a Premier League goal. Considering he did not previously have a reputation for poor finishing, this seems like a bad streak that should come to an end sooner or later.

 

 

Alisson became the first goalkeeper this season to earn an assist at the weekend, and on his first key pass of the campaign. But he’s not the most creative goalkeeper in the league. That honour falls to Nick Pope, with 4 key passes adding up to 0.55 xG assisted this season. We all knew Burnley were direct, but using the goalkeeper as an actual attacking weapon like this is quite something.

Moise Kean finally got off the mark for Everton last night. It’s been a tough start for him in England, made all the more frustrating by some poor finishing from reasonable production. The goal is overdue, but it may signal the moment when he really kicks on.

 

Who saved Crystal Palace's season?

Crystal Palace are a wonder to behold. They are by any particular measure an absolutely terrible team. And yet, 23 games into the Premier League season, they sit comfortably at ninth place in the table. It’s always tempting to look for reasons why in cases like Palace. Surely, the numbers must be missing something. And yet, as seductive as the siren call of pattern recognition might be to the human brain, sometimes there’s no greater answer than that the soccer gods are really enamored with Roy Hodgson. You don’t need fancy stats to understand that Crystal Palace are an anemic attacking side. They’ve scored only 22 goals this season. Only relegation battlers Watford and Bournemouth have scored fewer. That scoring record is a fair reflection of their underlying performance. They’ve scored 19 non-penalty goals and have 19.10 expected goals. Their xG per match of 0.82 is only narrowly edged out by Newcastle’s 0.81 for the lowest in the league. The problems are obvious. Palace only takes 9.39 shots per match, the fewest in the league. Those shots are themselves valued at only 0.09 xG per shot, the third-worst average in the league. So, to paraphrase Yogi Berra: The shots here are terrible and there are so few of them. That’s simply a recipe for attacking futility any way you slice it. But wait, I hear you cry, surely their defense must be their calling card. Many a successful season has been built on a pathetic attack married to a stalwart, death-defying defense. And it’s true that, at least superficially, Palace is stronger on that side of the ball. They’ve only conceded 26 goals; that’s a great number. Only Liverpool, Leicester City and Sheffield United have conceded fewer. Wow! But here the advanced numbers are a little more useful. Crystal Palace give up a lot of shots. They concede 13.61 per match; only Aston Villa, Newcastle, Norwich, Arsenal and Bournemouth give up more. To their credit, those shots have been largely benign. The average xG per shot of those Palace have conceded is 0.10, a mark only bettered by Wolverhampton, Arsenal, Burnley, Tottenham Hotspur, Norwich City and Manchester United. Lots of shots conceded, but mostly bad shots can be a recipe for an acceptable defense, and that’s exactly what Palace have. Hodgson has his team playing as the 13th best defense in the Premier League with a non-penalty xG conceded per game of 1.33. Of course, that’s a far cry from having conceded the fourth-fewest goals in the Premier League. Enter Vincente Guaita. Want one weird trick for turning your somewhat below-average defensive side into the fourth-best in the league? Have your keeper play absolutely out of his gosh-darned mind. Guaita is single-handedly responsible for saving just below eight goals more than a keeper putting in an average performance might have this season. Add those goals back in and a Palace side that conceded 34 goals would be much less notable. They would, In fact, be awfully close to where xG predicts, with only five teams conceding more than them, and three others conceding the exact same amount. Clearly you don’t need advanced stats to understand how good Guaita’s been. He plays for Palace and Palace have been the fourth-stingiest team in the league defensively, which alone is a pretty wonderful advert for him. But those fancy numbers make it even clearer. Guaita’s save percentage isn’t all that impressive. At 74.7%, there are five other keepers ahead of him, so he's good but not exceptional. What really makes him pop, though, is that he’s faced an exceptionally difficult caliber of shot. In fact, given the shots he’s faced, an average keeper would only be expected to save 65.2% of them. He’s faced the third-hardest set of shots in the league, which puts the fact that he has the sixth-highest save percentage in an entirely different light. There is nobody in the Premier League with a larger difference between their save percentage and expected save percentage than Guaita. That’s the purest measure of how good a shot stopper a keeper has been. The 9.5% difference puts him ever so slightly ahead of Liverpool’s Alisson as the keeper who has been the best this year at keeping the ball out of the net relative to expectations. The problem for Crystal Palace is that there’s nothing that suggests Guaita’s remarkable season will continue. At 33 years old, the Spaniard has had a solid career, first with Valencia, then over four years with Getafe, before landing in London, but nothing that suggests the spectacular. Last year, his first with Crystal Palace, he was fine. Ironically, he had a very similar save percentage, 74.4%, but shots he faced were considerably easier, and had an expected save percentage of 72.2%. So, he was 2.2% better than expected in his time on the field—nothing to sneeze at, but a far cry from 9.5%. All of which is to say that the miracle of Crystal Palace stems primarily from their keeper, and their keeper, despite a long history of being pretty good, does not have a history of being miraculous. Sometimes it’s hard to pinpoint where and how the soccer gods are sprinkling their dust. Other times they just straight-up inhabit the body of a journeyman 33-year-old keeper. None of this should be particularly encouraging for Crystal Palace supporters, however. It’s great that Guaita sprouted tree trunk arms for twenty games, which was almost single-handedly enough to push them from relegation battlers to the top half of the Premier League table. Barring an absolutely astounding collapse they’ll remain in the top division to fight another season. But this doesn’t bode well for their long-term health. When those fickle gods alight upon somebody else’s body, Crystal Palace will be left with an anemic attack and a defense that isn’t nearly as strong as Guaita’s form has made it seem. That may not matter this season, but if they don’t figure out how to get better before the next, a relegation battle awaits. And there, but for the soccer gods, will go Crystal Palace.

Is Sebastian Haller suffering from a West Ham curse, or something much more mundane?

In the decade under the ownership of David Gold and David Sullivan, West Ham fans have sometimes felt like the striker position has been cursed. Among the dozens of attackers brought to East London in the 2010s are Mido (a handful of games, no goals), Marouane Chamakh (a handful of games, no goals), Jonathan Calleri (a handful of games, one goal — progress!) and Jordan Hugill (a handful of games, no goals, but he’s still on the club’s books, so maybe he can come good [narrator: he would not come good]). While several of these signings can be generously described as punts never likely to bear fruit, West Ham has also acted as a bizarre anti-goal oasis, where strikers can down tools for a few months and regain the energy to become real scorers again after leaving. Simone Zaza was a broadly adequate top-flight forward before and after his no goals in eight games for the Hammers, while Robbie Keane — best described as ‘not quite as awful as some of his teammates at Upton Park’ during a half-season loan back in 2011, proceeded to score more than 100 goals for LA Galaxy after departing. While the word ‘curse’ is fun to throw around, there’s usually something deeper going on. With that in mind, it’s time to look at the latest case study, Sébastien Haller. The French striker became West Ham’s record signing over the summer, joining from Eintracht Frankfurt for a fee which could reportedly rise to €50 million. He arrived off the back of a 15-goal season in the Bundesliga, having thrice hit double figures in the Netherlands before moving to Germany. His six goals in 19 Premier League games would probably feel more impressive if it didn’t feature a run of eight games without a goal in the middle, including four in which he didn’t even register a shot. What might look like not-much-to-worry-about numbers are arguably a little deceptive, as it seems that fast start is still propping up the former Utrecht striker.  Take away the game against Watford in August, when Haller scored two goals from a combined distance equivalent to the width of your dinner table, and things look a little more concerning.  Haller’s expected goals of 1.49 in that game, as well as accounting for more than one-quarter of his personal xG for the entire season, is more than West Ham have managed as a team in all but a couple of their games. When there's just one guy getting decent shots away, you’re going to notice when he slows down.   West Ham being West Ham, and January being January, talk of the club investing in more attacking talent before the end of the transfer window has inevitably been bandied about. While the idea of cashing in on their frontman is unlikely to be a consideration — he was supposed to be part of a smarter transfer strategy; a long-term prospect with the tools to play a part in a team capable of incremental progress rather than a quick-fix — the same relegation worries that saw West Ham ditch Manuel Pellegrini for David Moyes may well encourage them to dip into the transfer market out of a need to be seen to be doing something. If the club’s owners want to actually be proactive — as opposed to merely giving that impression — any transfer approach needs to consider why Haller’s arrival hasn’t been the expected magic bullet. While 20 games isn’t the hugest sample size, there are still a few notable numbers evident in the 25-year-old’s output to date. Haller’s 12 non-penalty goals in last season’s Bundesliga came from a non-penalty xG of 10.8, or in per 90 minutes terms, 0.45. At West Ham, where Mark Noble is essentially glued to the penalty spot and has been for as long as we remember, spot-kicks are not a consideration. However, Haller’s non-penalty xG per 90 of 0.29 is noticeably lower. To be fair, he's getting shots away slightly more frequently than last season (one every 40.6 minutes, compared to one every 44.6 minutes), but from lower quality positions. The numbers are by no means terrible, especially for a striker still adjusting to a new club and league. Yet the extent to which West Ham is concerned might have a bit to do with the fact that Haller’s high xG per shot (more than 0.2 last season, down to 0.13) was as big a consideration as attributes such as his aerial strength. Haller’s numbers in Germany were broadly in line with the man he directly replaced at West Ham. Marko Arnautović averaged 0.40 non-penalty xG per 90 in the 2018–19 season and 0.41 the season before, bringing back-to-back double-figure goal returns in a team that wasn’t pulling up too many trees.  It’s easy to see how a striker with a record of taking high-value shots would seem ideal. Pellegrini was tasked with kicking on from last season’s 10th-place finish before his sacking in December (ostensibly for failing to do just that), and plugging a player into a side with a season-long xG of 37.2 in the 2017–18 season, and an even healthier 48.2 in 2018–19, seemed to make sense. But there’s more than one reason why things haven’t quite panned out that way.  In StatsBomb’s West Ham season preview, two things stand out: Haller’s tendency to go for higher-value shots, and his all-round contribution, which makes his virtually non-existent xG assisted in 2019–20 stand out. A drop-off from 0.25 xG assisted per 90 last season to 0.05 this doesn’t exactly reek of 'all-rounder', and only four of Haller’s 19 games have seen him register even 0.1 xG assisted or higher. This might be less striking in a more rounded team, but no player with more than 1,000 minutes has a non-penalty xG+xG assisted per 90 tally higher than Haller’s 0.35. This may be a consequence of the most notable change in Haller’s responsibilities: Last season, he frequently played with Luka Jović and Ante Rebić, both of whom delivered north of 0.4 xG per 90 from advanced positions, while this year he is very much the lone frontman.  With Javier Hernández leaving after playing a total of 24 minutes alongside Haller and Michail Antonio and Andriy Yarmolenko missing much of the season through injury, both Manuel Pellegrini and David Moyes have opted for a one-striker system out of necessity if nothing else (we have chosen not to acknowledge the £8 million Albian Ajeti, whose 121 minutes leave him within the margin of error of ‘entirely fictional’). While Hernández found himself in and out of the starting line-up in his two West Ham seasons, a failure to utilise (or at least adequately replace) the Mexican may have been misguided. Haller’s breakout season in Germany occurred when sharing goalscoring responsibilities with forwards — as opposed to attacking midfielders who play high up the pitch — while utilising his aerial prowess to allow Jović, Rebić and others into dangerous positions. At West Ham, that aerial prowess is still there, but it’s not accompanied by anything close to last season’s creative numbers. There’s a difference between an all-rounder and a player who can do everything, and this can often come down to the presence of a supporting cast that gives a player the freedom to thrive. One striker cannot be his own wingman — at least not for long. Adding in the fact that only two West Ham players are averaging more than one pass into the opposition area per 90 (six players achieved this last season, including four who did so over more than 1,500 league minutes) it’s not hard to understand why Haller and West Ham aren’t having the season some optimists anticipated. Yes, there are still some optimists at the London Stadium, despite *gestures at 125 years of history*. With this in mind, surely there's a temptation for Moyes and the West Ham owners to invest in a more orthodox strike partner who can complement Haller’s more under-used attributes.  Declaring Haller has underperformed this season, or that he's been hit by that all-too-familiar curse, ignores the fact that he’s been forced to take on different responsibilities to those that brought him 15 goals for Frankfurt while being expected to deliver comparable results. The strangest thing about this is that, in setting up their squad in the way they have, West Ham have made this a near-inevitability. Perhaps they looked at Arnautović, a man signed as a winger but quickly transformed into a quasi-Zlatan, as a prototype for attacking players being able to slot themselves into their system rather than the more sensible approach of setting up in a way that might, y’know, directly benefit the most expensive signing in the club’s history. If the Hammers keep plugging away with their current approach, trying to fit Haller into a system that doesn't fit him, it will reflect the same lack of direction that has sabotaged any shot of progress, at least the progress seen in the years since their move to their new stadium. Even if you have the best roadmap in the world, it will count for nothing if you don’t take off your blindfold before trying to follow it.

The chess matches of Quique Setién

Football is very much not a game of chess. The pieces rarely go where you tell them to, players don't die when they're tackled (Neymar aside), and when your worst player reaches the opposition touchline, they're not promoted into Lionel Messi. Except, apparently, if you're Quique Setién, who this week finds himself outside of his preparation, as the manager of Barcelona.

And as every Five Things You Need To Know About New Barcelona Manager Setién profile has told you, the Spaniard is an avid chess player (and apparently he also coached the Russian beach football team, because nobody does beaches like Russia). He talks proudly of the time he tested Kasparov in a simultaneous exhibition (where a grandmaster, like some intellectual octopus, will play a dozen or more players at once), and by all accounts has kept up the hobby until this day.

Of course, there's a somewhat sad history of figures in the world of football boasting of their chess prowess. Who can forget Nigel Short's David Brent vs David Brent-esque report of his game with Sol Campbell? The recently retired defender had stated that chess helps him think strategically, but responded to Short's 1. e4 with the almost childlike 1... a5 before being crushed.

More recently in 2018, Liverpool's Trent Alexander-Arnold - having talked of his many games on the team bus against teammate Ben Woodburn - found himself facing Magnus Carlsen, newly arrived in the UK to defend his World Championship title. Alexander-Arnold tried to unsettle the dominant Norwegian with the rarely-seen Pirc defense, or perhaps was just picking at random, because by the fourth move his knight was forced into a humiliating retreat back to its opening square. By move seven he'd blundered a bishop. Then a rook. Then, with his king stepping confidently into the centre, presaging the surging runs for Liverpool with which we've become so familiar, he was mated by a combination of Magnus's minor pieces. If you work in public relations for a celebrity who can't shut up about chess, let me give you this simple advice: learn the first five moves of the Ruy Lopez opening, then blunder to your heart's content. It'll at least look like you put up a fight.

As it happens, history has preserved a couple of Setién's games, who assuredly does know the Ruy Lopez, also known as the Spanish Game. So today we're going to analyze his play in depth, hoping to understand more of the mind that will be making Messi's moves for foreseeable future. In 1993, Setién was in his second spell as a player at Racing Santander. That year he traveled to the Benasque Open in the Pyrenees, where his game against Joan Gensana Berzunces (a regular on the Spanish tournament circuit who peaked at about 2068 Elo, perhaps roughly Isthmian League level) is available on ChessBase. Setién with the black pieces (i.e. playing away from home) faced the Exchange Variation of the Ruy Lopez:

After 5. Bxc6, this is an offer of an active, open game from the white (i.e. home) player, who gives black the bishop pair (with their diagonal runs, think of them as chess's wide forwards), in exchange for white having superior pawn structure (much like a Sean Dyche team). After capturing the bishop, white castles (sets up a three man wall in front of his keeper, the king) and Setién follows up with 5... f6 (a bit like an overlapping centre-back, weakening defensive cover by stepping up-field), a move favoured by US prodigy Bobby Fischer. Setién however played conservatively, and by move 10 his position felt claustrophobic. His bishops are stuck in the centre (with no access to the halfspaces), his rooks (chess's marauding full-backs) are stuck at the back:

Despite having been quoted as saying "chess and football are very similar. If you're controlling the centre of the board or the middle of the field, you've a high chance of winning the game", it is white in control of the centre here, with both its rooks in the middle (like inverted full-backs). But as the game progresses, Gensana Berzunces doesn't exploit Setién's vulnerable centre. In fact, the game turns when white attacks down the left flank after the position below, with 20. b4, instead of the sensible defensive 20. h3 (man-marking the winger on g4), allowing Setién to switch flanks and launch a powerful counter-attack with Nh4:

Soon Setién has committed most of his pieces to this attack, and under pressure, white makes a mistake in defence with 20. Rf2:

After 20... Nxf3, Setién has created an attacking overload: white's queen is threatened, but worse, white needs to scramble to cover its open goal, risking Rg1# mate. Unable to defend all of Setién's attacking options, white soon concedes. Perhaps more revealing of Setién's weaknesses is one of Setién's games from 2002, shortly after securing promotion for Racing Santander, this time as their manager. In a simultaneous exhibition given by then World Champion Vladimir Kramnik in Barcelona, Setién was again black and played the Two Knights Defence:

The game was incredibly cautious and slow to build up, and it wasn't until here with 19. axb5 that the game's first ground duel occurred. Just look at all black's pieces tucked away in their own half:

This attack down Setién's queen-side started to look quite threatening, however, drawing many of his pieces over to help defend ("the objective is to move the opponent, not the ball." — Pep Guardiola):

At this point, Kramnik sprang the trap and switched play to the other flank, with Setién unable to defend in transition:

From there, with Setién's defensive organisation in tatters, he soon conceded:

From these two games, we can draw some clear analogies with Setién's play style in football:

Slow, patient buildup

In 2018/2019, Real Betis had the highest average possession duration with 28.7 seconds beating out even Barcelona's 28.5. They had third shortest goalkeeper pass length, and led the league for their proportion of backwards passes at 10.2%, only slightly more cowardly than Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad. Expect no wild attacking gambits here.

Poor defensive transitions

Last season, Real Betis conceded more shots generated by a high press than any other side bar Levante. The flip side of the slow patient buildup is that when team's bait you into a trap, bad things happen.

It remains to be seen how these aspects of Setién's game play out at one of the world's biggest clubs. His love of chess (like his talk of cows and his folksy surprise at the job in general) is unlikely to give him any extra credibility in a dressing room with some of the world's best football players. But there are many skills involved in the game of chess - some of them are pure, intuitive creativity, and perhaps that will help manage a genius like Messi. Others, however, are cold, hard calculation, and if there's one thing Barcelona need, with their aging stars and Champions League capitulations still fresh in mind, it's a dispassionate, unsentimental plan for the future.

Header image courtesy of the Press Association

What to expect from Quique Setién at Barcelona

Chess analogies follow Quique Setién around. The man is a fanatic and plays whenever he gets the chance. He has played against world champions Anatoly Karpov and Garry Kasparov (we don’t know who won). Earlier in his career those analogies dealt with how he might make tactical choices in order to both play the style her preferred and nullify a more talented opponent. Now, as he takes over at Barcelona, the game has changed. Rather than starting as an underdog in need of a strategic advantage, Setién has the most powerful piece in the world. Games spin around Lionel Messi him like the globe and he’s the axis. The force of his sheer existence is enough to beat teams. The question is, can Setién adjust. It's possible to imagine that Setién managing Messi could lead to a footballing revolution at the club of the likes we haven’t seen in a decade. Or it could go horribly wrong. With their new manager, there likely won’t be any in between. Barcelona were humiliated against Liverpool last season. That 4-0 defeat, the effects of which are still propelling Klopp’s side into the stratosphere, had the exact opposite effect on Barcelona. Coupled with the Roma defeat the year before, there is a sense that the players are just treading water until their next meltdown. The wound suffered at Anfield hasn’t healed enough yet to assess the damage of the scar because with every limp performance, it gets ripped open again. It’s painful, yes, but it’s also a reminder that it’s there and it happened. Bartomeu was right; the team and club needed a ‘change of dynamic’ as he said countless times on Wednesday. The manner in which they changed that dynamic was shambolic and will probably have consequences in time to come but they did need a change. Barcelona might well flame out of the Champions League again but at least they can’t be said to have been naive. They tried, at least, to avoid it.

What to expect from Setién’s Barcelona

A lot of possession. His Real Betis side was third in the league for two consecutive seasons with 83% and 86% passing completion statistics. Last season, which was his last at the Benito Villamarin, his side could not manage to create chances though and had just 2.08 clear shots per game. That was one of the worst figures in the league. They were slow, cumbersome and lethargic on the ball. What’s worse is that Setién was incapable of changing, the die had been cast in his head and the more the fans groaned at every sideways pass, it seemed, the more delighted they extracted in doing it. The malaise that set in during his final year at Real Betis was the same as the one that had set in at his previous job with Las Palmas, where things had turned sour over contract talks. At Real Betis when they kept failing in the same way, Setién was unwilling to change his ways. That year, they were behind just Barcelona in possession but their pace to goal was the lowest in the league. They actually became hard to watch. At Las Palmas, Setién played an almost comical style with expected goals conceded totals that were almost farcical but he did make them better than the sum of their parts. At Betis, their xG for and against swung turbulently from week to week, with bright and exciting performances early in his tenure, but by the end it often all just seemed quite dull. 

Ernesto Valverde vs Quique Setién

It has almost become a game cast as myth. The 3-4 win for Real Betis was the moment murmurs of Setién’s fit as a potential Barcelona manager started to be heard. It doesn’t say much for the competitiveness of the league that ‘the’ win, singular, is still spoken of as though it is the most impossible of things.  It was a battle of styles. And styles make fights. This is a similar game to what Setién had gotten involved in many times before at Betis. The number of games with ridiculous scorelines is astonishing. They conceded possession to Barcelona with just 44%, a number Setién would surely cringe at when looking back regardless of who it’s against. But they had 15 shots and 8 of them on target, which was more than Barcelona’s 5.  Setién played a 3-5-2 and they crowded the middle. Marc Bartra applied the most pressures in the game with 30 and Andrea Guardado was second with 28 followed by Sidnei. It’s hard to tell from this exactly how Setién will play with Barcelona but it gives a glimpse into the areas of the field he thinks need to be contained. Even against Barcelona, in a match where his side was unable to control the ball, Setién still emphasized midfield, asking his players to get on the ball and create, rather than bypassing the area of the pitch which by all rights Barcelona should have controlled. It seems almost certain that at Barcelona he will exploit his midfielders technical excellence and look to get Busquets, Arthur and De Jong involved early and often.

Players that might flourish

It’s hard to think of any players who won’t flourish under Setién. This is mostly because, Barcelona have very good players all across the pitch. One notable exception might be Arturo Vidal. Vidal's ability to wreak havoc on the pitch remains his most valuable skill, but it will only be of use to Setién if he has evolved his playing style from his time at Real Betis. One of the issues At Barcelona was Valverde’s unwillingness to play Arthur, the next anointed young midfield star. There were injuries too but by and large, Valverde was not willing to place his faith completely and utterly in the Brazilian. Now though, Setién might be willing to pay the trifecta of De Jong, Busquets and Arthur in the middle. Remember, it was under Setién that Fabian Ruíz got his move to Napoli as one of the premier central midfielders in LaLiga. Lo Celso also impressed massively under Setién as he moved to Tottenham in the summer of last year – he scored 16 goals last season. Who will be Barcelona’s version of Ruiz (radar below) or Lo Celso. It can be Arthur if he wants it to be. One issue for Setién was his goalkeepers. By his second season, Pau Lopez was getting the vast majority of the minutes, and he was asked to do a tremendous amount of work with his feet, even thought that was not necessarily his calling card. Ter Stegen has already tweeted that he is uber-excited to get back to work. If you consider what Neuer did under Pep a revolution, Setién could revolutionize the position again with his own German shot-stopper. Looking at the passing stats from the 2018-19 season, in fact, ter Stegen is the only player who passed it shorter and more accurately than Setién's keeper. Combine the managers monomaniacal focus on possession with his knew keepers well established skills, and who knows what could happen.  Setién was strangely non-committal when asked about Messi in the press conference to present him as the new manager. He had once said he would cry when Messi retired but now he said to admire is one thing, to coach him is another and he will have to wait and see how each player adapts to the context he places them in. He had, of course, very kind words for the Argentine and there’s an underlying assumption in everything he said that Messi is the best but after years of Valverde relying to an almost comical degree on the world's best player, what happens next might depend more on his teammates under Setién.  Valverde rarely turned to the academy. Riqui Puig is said to be ready and Carles Aleña had to leave on loan to Real Betis to ensure his development continued with consistent minutes. "I don't know if you have followed my career but this club has an incredible academy. I don't know about specific players but they will train with us. They will get the chance if they deserve it,” said Setién. And he added a number of younger players to his first proper training session on Wednesday.  Another big question that needs to be answered is what happens with Griezmann and who replaces Suarez. Under Setién, Betis and Las Palmas often played with anywhere from zero to three strikers. There was the a variety of formations and tactical changes tailored to the specific game. Setién played coy when asked about his long term solution. "We have an important player out but we have to think about the players who are here and the important thing is the philosophy.” Setién brought Loren Moron up from Betis’ reserves and he was the player with the highest xG in his final season. Sergio Canales, who had his best season in years under Setién, and Lo Celso were next. The two attacking midfielders often sat behind Moron and were sublime in their respective roles. While he's not wedded to any specific formation, Barcelona's classic 4-3-3 seems where he's most likely to start if he has the players. He did, however, mention 4-4-2 in the press conference and he's opted for a 3-5-2 when necessary at Betis also. We could talk about what Setién might do until the cows come home but, as Setién said, it all depends on how he views the players and how they respond to the context he puts them into. Or, as he put it, "I am very clear about things, I listen to everybody but it's very difficult to take things away from me that I truly believe. I am the first to defend what I do. I'm clear about this." Barcelona were plodding along under Valverde and it certainly feels like a fresh dawn under their new manager, who is as idealistic and convinced of his style as the legendary Dutch master Johan Cruyff. Cruyff, of course, is transcendent, less a former player and manager now, and more the embodiment of an abstract concept. He is used as a unit of measurement. How close or far away a manager is aligned to that style can make or break a coach and decide how much leeway he is given. Setién is what Barcelona fans have been crying out for. Now all he needs are results.

Could Bournemouth really go down?

In Bournemouth’s time in the Premier League, they have often hit bumps in the road, but have always found a way to put a good run of results together and look comfortable by the end of the season. Might it not happen this year? It’s stormy seas for the Cherries right now. Nine losses in the last twelve fixtures have seen them slide into the relegation zone. Now, this isn’t the first time a run like that has happened. Last season, at almost the exact same November-to-January period, Bournemouth lost nine games out of twelve. Eddie Howe’s side have always been up and down. The difference at this point is that Bournemouth started the 2018/19 season with six wins from the first ten, whereas this time around it was only three. Since then, it’s looked broadly the same, with Bournemouth picking up five wins so far compared to eight at this point last season. After that, the Cherries managed five wins and three draws for the remainder of the season, adding another 18 points to a respectable total that saw them finish in 14th. If they do the same again, Bournemouth will end the season on a very knife-edge inducing 38 points. Just being Bournemouth might not be enough right now. Taking a dig into the expected goals does not bring optimism. In the period since StatsBomb started collecting this data set in 2017, Bournemouth have at no point been a good defensive side. What they have previously done is put up enough on the attacking side to make it work. That really isn’t happening right now. The attack right now is the worst it’s ever been over a ten game period in StatsBomb’s numbers. This attacking dropoff can be most obviously seen in Callum Wilson’s form. In August and September, he was riding high, getting not a lot of chances but some really great chances nonetheless. The radar shows what his game was about in this period: working hard, pressuring a lot, and getting on the end of a select few terrific shots. But from October onwards? The headline is that he hasn’t scored a single goal, and unfortunately we can’t help him out too much in the data. His volume has dropped even further, and he’s had just a single shot with an xG greater than 0.1. The radar tells the same story. Still working hard, but not getting any shots of real quality. While this obviously can’t be pinned solely on Wilson, it’s worth noting that Bournemouth’s next most prominent chance-getters Joshua King and Harry Wilson have not suffered similar xG dips. In terms of working the ball into situations for goalscoring opportunities, it’s impossible to look away from Ryan Fraser’s season, in which his xG assisted in open play has fallen off a cliff. What’s curious is that there doesn’t seem to be that much else different about his game. He leads Bournemouth in open play passes into the box per 90, and his quality from set pieces is unchanged. But he’s not creating good chances from open play anymore. Bournemouth at their best last season had a really effective front four. Wilson and King would press aggressively as a front two, with Wilson getting most of the good chances. Fraser would offer creativity from the left while David Brooks would often appear to be playing centrally despite very much coming from the right, pressing well and getting shots. Brooks’ injury has meant Harry Wilson taking his minutes, which should be fine as the two have similar skillsets. Dominic Solanke has been rotated in for King, which is also a reasonable like for like change. But all seem to have offered a little bit less this season, and the net result is a non-functioning attack. Presumably in a failed attempt to tighten things up, Howe has gone with a more combative midfield double pivot this season. Philip Billing and Jefferson Lerma are both solid ball winners, which should be making the side more solid. And yet what we’re seeing is a side just as porous, but seemingly without the ability to move the ball up the pitch. After a long injury kept him out of the side, Lewis Cook is now being reintegrated, and should offer the kind of ball progression option the Cherries need, albeit at a cost with his poor positional discipline having long been an issue. Howe has switched to a midfield three at times, and right now it seems as though permanently fielding Cook alongside Lerma and Billing could cover the most bases, especially as the attacking quartet aren’t exactly functioning as a unit right now. Even Howe’s biggest champions have never really put up a compelling case for his defensive record. The curious thing is in how they do it. Traditionally a side that show up in the metrics as one of the lower pressing teams in the division, Bournemouth somehow started the season blazing into a higher press, before dropping off again. On the radar below, Bournemouth played up until mid-November with a defensive distance much higher up the pitch, allowing opponents fewer passes before attempting to win the ball back. Since then, they’ve scaled it right back to their usual rate. Whatever any of this was supposed to do is a mystery. It might not matter how high Bournemouth press when, however they play, they’re prone to poor defensive shapes and offering ample opportunities for individuals to make mistakes. Howe unquestionably has a lot of strengths as a coach. Bournemouth’s trajectory during his time in charge speaks for itself, as does the improvement of many players he’s worked with. But what he’s never shown much evidence of producing is cohesion. The Cherries will go on good runs and bad runs largely for reasons difficult to discern. They’re going to need to find a good one in their back pocket soon, because it’s not like there’s a clear plan in the football they’ve played for how this side will find the results they need.  

Stats of Interest

Norwich are probably dead and buried. Their league position along with the dreadful stuff they’ve played for most of this season tells us what to expect. But might there be a small glimmer of hope? In recent weeks, their numbers have been broadly league average. It’s very unlikely to materialise, but if there is to be some miraculous revival, well, stranger things have happened. Harry Kane’s injury potentially opens up a spot for another English striker to start at the European Championships this summer, and Danny Ings is going hell for leather to get it. It’s recently that the goals have really been flowing, but the former Liverpool man has produced excellent form all season. It’s been a month since we last checked in on David McGoldrick. Since then he’s taken another 11 shots that have led to zero goals. The day he eventually fumbles one over the line should be declared a bank holiday.  

Examining RB Leipzig's style

Thanks to a strong finish, RB Leipzig have secured Bundesliga’s imaginary autumnal championship called “Herbstmeisterschaft” in German and start the second half of the season as league leaders. What distinguishes the team? And where are its vulnerabilities?

The last five Bundesliga games ahead of the winter break largely serve as the foundation for this analysis. In these, Leipzig without fail played in a 4-4-2/4-2-2-2 formation which has once again become the customary formation of the team after an asymmetrical 3-5-2 had intermittently been used. 

Attacking organisation

On the whole, Leipzig show themselves, especially in games against visibly inferior teams, to be a dominant unit that has developed confidence in its qualities in possession. In that way, this differentiates this Leipzig team from the ones in previous seasons in which the possession game seemed less competent.

The first build-up phase, typically starting a few metres ahead of their own penalty box, is coined by a distinct calmness. The central defenders aim to establish this phase of the game with initial passes and thus prepare a move without hastily forcing an attacking passing lane. Instead, the first passes go toward one of the central midfielders or fullbacks without those passes carrying much consequence.

The most common move entails the ball being played to a full-back, who forwards it diagonally to a winger who has moved inside. From there, the ball is either laid off to a team-mate behind or around him or the player opens himself up into the open space. The fullbacks, though, differ from each other in terms of their play-style and positional characteristics quite severely. Lukas Klostermann, for one, is someone who wants to make forward runs early, while Nordi Mukiele hangs back much more often and thus receives more touches of the ball in the first build-up phase.

This is how Leipzig's initiating of play presents itself. The Pass Sonar underlines how the central players at the halfway line—most commonly the central defenders—rarely play vertical passes into the attack, rather shifting play toward the wings.

Furthermore, the two holding midfielders serve different functions. Konrad Laimer clearly is the more attacking-minded of the two central midfielders which expresses itself in his aggressive advancing up the pitch. Laimer works very well as a receiver for the aforementioned layoffs from one of the wingers—in this case the right winger. On the half-left side, though, Diego Demme hangs back further and so covers the space behind. Instead, it is Timo Werner who moves toward the left side and thus offers the left winger an option to forward passes to him. Thus, while Laimer is actively looking for tight spaces and high-pressure situations, Werner attempts to evade the tightness and to penetrate the opponent's defensive formation from the flank.

The Passing Network and Average Positions illustrate the diverging roles of players in the position groups. Klostermann is the full-back that advances higher. Laimer most often pushes forward a bit from the half-right space. Comparing the wingers, Nkunku typically chimes in more concretely in the No.10 space.

Occasionally, Demme will produce a different build-up structure by dropping between the centre backs and thus automatically pushing the fullbacks a bit more forward. When the wingers move inward more quickly accordingly, this opens a lane for Klostermann, for instance, who can use it to sprint and receive the ball at full speed.

As attacks develop into the final third of the pitch it becomes apparent how Leipzig use simple, but well-thought-out, positional play. The wingers usually move inward with the left winger adapting himself to the movements of Werner, who himself can also fall back into the half-space. The inward movement of the wingers and the advancing runs of the full-backs create a consistent staggering in terms of width, without it becoming too flat thanks to forward and backward movements within the lanes themselves.

This GIF shows the processes when Leipzig can advance into the opposing half without much resistance, which happened time and time again in the win over Düsseldorf, for example. 1) Werner presents himself in the half-space and does not evade toward the left flank due to limited space. 2) Sabitzer and Forsberg or Nkunku shape their runs toward the middle or into the points of intersections based on personal preferences and in adaptation to the strikers' movements.

On the whole, Leipzig create a strong presence at the points of intersections even against a back-five and thus occupy the entire back line. 3) Both full-backs use the open wings for runs and at times position themselves at the offside border, thus occupying their immediate opponents. Alternatively, one of the full-backs receives an uncontested pass. 4) The four-man block in behind is responsible for coverage and can transition into Gegenpressing in case of a loss of possession.

Defensive Transitioning

Typically, Leipzig are able to avoid being surprised by counters after losses of possession deep in the opponent's half. Often times, singular proactive movements from the defenders prove sufficient, with them looking to duel with the intended receiver of a long ball and thus pushing him off the track. In situations in which Leipzig give up the ball a short way ahead of the box and centrally, usually one or two players immediately behind will step in. On the right side that might be Laimer and Sabitzer who are in close proximity to the ball anyway. High pressure on the opponent is being applied especially ahead of the halfway line, so that there is little time for decisions and the new ball-carrier cannot even get into position for a long shifting pass.

Looking at them individually, some players behave differently in defensive transitioning. Laimer, for one, is an aggressive defender, whereas Demme is a man-orientated pursuit-player, mostly trying to eliminate his direct opponent as a receiving option. When losing possession at the halfway line, and thus in situations where only defenders will be behind the ball, the back-four typically moves back toward its own penalty box in orderly fashion and also moves closer together in an attempt to fend off potential crossing attempts in the middle and not to let potentially fatal holes develop by going into early duels.

Laimer's Defensive Activity over the entire season thus far shows how he behaves quite dominantly on his usual half-right position. The picture is slightly distorted because he played a number of matches on the right wing.

Defensive Organisation

Against the open build-up play of the opponent, so, when they build-up in an orderly fashion from the back, Leipzig often play in a 4-4-1-1/4-2-3-1 formation. The allocation of the two strikers at times will adapt to the opponent and may even vary within games slightly. The players have some liberties in these aspects. Interestingly, in the 4-4-1-1 it is not rare for the more physical Patrik Schick to be positioned as the temporary No.10 and stay in proximity of the opponent's central midfield. Werner is then being used further ahead as a runner who tries to push wide-standing centre backs toward the flanks and to guide passes that way as well. 

The flanks, though, are not being defended head-to-head. Especially in the 4-4-1-1, Leipzig's wingers are positioned more centrally in the midfield line and only move in on the opponent when he receives the ball, in order to prevent an uncontested diagonal pass forward. Leipzig's central midfielders, in turn, are typically man-orientated when an opposing player pushes forward through the centre in an attempt to present himself as a receiving option behind the halfway line.

Leipzig's pressing structure in the 4-4-1-1 distinguishes itself by the staggering between Werner and his striking partner as well as the adapted movements of the wingers who will orient themselves either to the full-back, a dropping holding midfielder or even one of the opposing centre backs.

Sporadically, Leipzig's defenders in the back line tend to pursue dropping movements from the wingers or central strikers, thus abandoning space at the offside border. This can take its toll, however, when another opponent runs into the space behind the defender for a layoff pass from a winger or central striker. Most of the time, the defenders will abort their pursuing runs in time, but a certain, albeit small, risk of danger remains.

Leipzig's defensive problems are, in fact, larger when the team moves back in a 4-4-1-1 or a 4-4-2 and tries to defend while using a low press. The statics of Leipzig's defensive formation are then a curse for the team, since it only rarely allows immediate access, instead turning into a passenger when the opponent turns to quick passing moves. Leipzig live off their strength in duels and intensity in proximity to the ball, but they can only develop when the team is in movement. Otherwise, they turn into a relatively simple man-orientated defensive team that is constantly a step too late and only rarely manages to block passing lanes, simply because it fails to disengage from its own man-orientation.

Over the last five matches, Leipzig failed to decisively disturb the opposing passing flow. This was especially true for the games against Hoffenheim and Dortmund. Still the team manages to defend opposing attacks in a way that no shot is actually fired off. Attempts on goal by the opponent mostly are a result from an attempt to play on the counter or from a very inviting position from open play when Leipzig's defence is ultimately beaten.

Building up with a back-three and full-backs that are positioned higher up the pitch seems like an effective means against Leipzig. The full-backs would push Leipzig's wingers back, while the numerical advantage in the first build-up line would allow for a secure passing and, situationally, for advances through the half-spaces. Rarely, Leipzig tinker with their pressing formation in a way that at least one of the wingers moves toward one of the opposing centre backs. 

Of course, someone like Emil Forsberg will occasionally make such a run, but usually, high-positioned opposing wing-players and dominance in the early build-up phase should make Leipzig turn to a retreat into passivity.

Offensive Transitioning

The aforementioned structure in pressing, with Schick as a hanging striker, has the major benefit of the Czech being able to immediately function as a pass receiver after winning the ball. Schick is the first target player who can, for example, lay the ball off for a sprinting Laimer. Laimer most often leads the first wave in advancing after winning possession, while the third ball will more often than not end up at the feet of the defenders who themselves move forward. Especially after third balls, the next pass usually is a medium-length ball toward the flanks where, for instance, Timo Werner or Christopher Nkunku will be located to move away from the contracted defence and receive the ball.

Set Pieces

Corners are not necessarily a Leipzig speciality. Defensively, the team again and again seems vulnerable, which is also down to the staggering. Most often, five players position themselves more or less behind one another at the edge of the six-yard box, with one of those five possibly taking on a man-marking task. Ahead of them, there are three more Leipzig players in a tight man-marking scheme, trying to defend against the opponents' runs. Since a number of players are positioned exactly on a line, the inner five-man block can be levered out, for instance with a short corner and a flick-on toward the far post—be that straight-away horizontally or diagonally from the corner of the six-yard box. The block remains static, after all, forming a density of defenders that is restricted in its reactivity. 

Example of Leipzig's staggering for a defensive corner…

…and how an opponent can beat Leipzig following a corner.

For attacking corners, three Leipzig players may, for example, position themselves centrally ahead of the six-yard box. Three more players stand further back at the penalty spot, with one of them often dropping back from there toward the short side of the penalty box. In other cases, five Leipzig players stand ahead of the penalty spot and run in a diversified manner and in timely accord to the corner's being taken toward the six-yard box. Here, Werner, as the player bringing up the rear in that block, will move away a bit and not make a direct run inside. Another player mimics a run toward the corner flag, however abandoning it when he's pursued. Schick, then again, occupies the six-yard box in this alignment and works as a nuisance for the goalkeeper as far as the rules will allow it.

For crosses from free-kicks in the half-spaces, four Leipzig players will occasionally position themselves in the opposite half-space and start their runs, almost classically, shortly ahead of the offside border. Three more players hang back a few metres and can free themselves for a short pass. Schick, in turn, will sometimes gain more of a head of steam from further back and thus enter the box with more dynamism as long as he is not running into an offside position before the free-kick is being taken in the first place.

Leipzig's major advantage is the pure physicality that Schick, as well as Yussuf Poulsen or Dayot Upamecano, brings to the table for corners. Even from static positions, when they are situated at the six-yard box, they can win aerial duels.

So how do Leipzig distinguish themselves?

  • The team no longer lives off only their intensity and speed, even though those elements still play an important role since almost no other Bundesliga team can piece together this many exact passes and receptions at high speeds.
  • The many movements within the structure in possession make life hard for man-orientated defensive lines. They also train the passing communication of Leipzig and encourage their intuitive actions high up the pitch.
  • Werner more present than ever by not only chiming in on the left side, but also more and more actively asking to receive the ball in the half-space. Spending time as a play-making or heavy-on-touches striker in a 3-5-2 also bears fruit.
  • The strength in duels by which Konrad Laimer and also Stefan Ilsanker distinguish themselves is of high importance in defensive transitioning, since it puts a stop to a number of attacks. Only rarely a physical collision will be interpreted as a foul by the aggressor when defending counter-attacks, as long as there is only minimal contact between the legs.
  • Passiveness is a curse for Leipzig just as much as a match in which they are too dominant. At times, the team will give up a bit on their strong positional play when they are in the lead, while also becoming less precise in the transition into the final third of the pitch. This lack of precision results in a loss of dominance and a less strong Gegenpressing because of the weaker staggering in the initial phase.

How can Leipzig be beaten?

  1. Building up with a back-three, in connection with secure ball-circulation and constant advancing of the wing-players without the general aspiration to actually include them immediately into the passing, can force Leipzig into the role of a passive defender.
  2. Once dominance is achieved, the challenge is that the attacking players have to be in constant movement to be available as receiving options and to create opportunities for layoffs and subsequent through-balls. 
  3. To defend against Leipzig's build-up, it has to be attacked at its weakest point. The weakest point is the well-used pass from the full-back to the winger that has moved inside. Here, an opponent has to give the winger a little space at first to provoke the pass, but then force the immediate attack to either intercept the pass or create a loss of possession through a duel.
  4. Corners offer a number of options with short-flight balls and flick-ons toward the far post.

StatsBomb Announce Pro Scouting Service

Those of you who follow me on Twitter know that over the holidays I quietly mentioned we launched our new Professional Scouting Service at the end of 2019. Today I am going to spend some time explaining what exactly this service is and why the football industry should care. So What is StatsBomb Pro Scouting? StatsBomb Pro Scouting is a subscription-based service that offers customers an opportunity to access our professional services in a broader, more comprehensive way than ever before. Throughout the course of a year, we will deliver objective evaluations on more than 200 players complete with data analysis, at least two independent scouting reports per player, injury history and more. We also analyse the player's current ability and their potential ability to help customers gauge the level players can play at, both now and in the future. The goal here is to offer objective insight at a level few teams in the world of football currently match. We have a ton of experience in this space, and a track record of success customers can now leverage for their own needs. Yes, StatsBomb are a data and analytics company, but we cut our teeth working directly for football clubs. We understand how to combine data analysis and traditional scouting to unearth hidden gems better than anyone, and have experience doing it from the League Two level in England all the way up to perennial Champions League contenders. Now we are delivering this information to our customers over 200 times a year. Plus, as we’ve quietly been saying all along, scouting reports are data, so it fits perfectly within our mission to be the best sports data company in the world. This isn't black box nonsense like the SmartSport SuperUberPotential IndexMatrix.* This is real world analysis done by long-time professionals who can answer your questions as to how and why we reached the conclusions we did. Our scouting reports will deliver

  1. Jargon free, meaningful scout interpretations.
  2. Analysis of attacking skills, defensive skills, transitions, set pieces.
  3. Targeted summaries and player projections.
  4. Consistent coverage-every player has two scout reports from a minimum of four matches reviewed.

* Names changed to protect the guilty. Our Track Record Compare that [€45m] to the business Brighton did earlier in the summer for German deadball specialist Pascal Gross at €4m” --August 2017 Tammy Abraham We had Abraham as probably the best loan striker available to a Championship club. He could be very special.--August 2016 He has pace, strength, and surprising technical ability for a player his size. He’ll be in the Premier League next season and will not look at all out of place.” -- January 2017 The StatsBomb 100 In October 2017, we started on an unusual product for a customer - find 100 "under the radar" players in Europe that would be good enough to transfer to the Premier League in the next 12-18 months. There were a ton of future stars on that list, including Rodri (when he had a €12M release clause), Fabian Ruiz at Real Betis, Nicola Barella, Lucas Torreira, Thilo Kehrer, Mikel Oyarzabal, Federico Chiesa, and Benjamin Pavard the week before he was called up to the French National team. The average valuation of players on the list in Autumn 2017 was €5.5 million. Fast forward two years later and the average valuation of those players is now €16 million. Someone like Marcus Thuram is now worth potentially fifty times the €600,000 he was listed at when we flagged him as a future top talent. StatsBomb Pro Scouting is an expanded version of that project, with a remit to find and evaluate new talent from all over the world at a variety of different league levels.

We provided our clients with football’s future elite--now we can do that for you.

So our primary remit is to find future stars and objectively evaluate them, but we have a second mission with these evaluations that has run through StatsBomb’s DNA right from the start: cut through the hype. In addition to searching for the best unknown players in the world, we will also dig deeper into the ones with the most noise around them and see if their performance matches the marketing. Helping customers avoid expensive mistakes remains one of the most valuable services we can provide, both with our tools and with our analysis.   Who Should Subscribe to Pro Scouting? This service is targeted at professional teams and agents around the world, from English Championship level through to the biggest teams in the Champions League. Front offices are complicated by politics, agendas, agent ties and more... We are free of those burdens, which allows us to focus on facts. For clubs already using data and analytics, this service provides an independent source of information on the scouting front. We are not trying to replace your scouting department, we're simply trying to give our customers the best set of information possible to make decisions on their biggest cost centre: players. We strongly believe the football world needs more objective scouting information at its fingertips and that is exactly what this service will do.  Our analysis is powered by the best data in world football, and one that in 2020 will cover over sixty competitions. More data = more players to evaluate = more possibilities to find hidden gems. Historically speaking, finding hidden player gems is exactly what we do. If you work in professional football and want to hear more about this - including a free sample report - send an email to Sales@StatsBomb.com --Ted Knutson CEO, Co-Founder StatsBomb

Tottenham Hotspur vs Liverpool: A complicated tale of two halves

Liverpool won again on Saturday. The side went to North London, scored a 37th minute goal, and rode that slim margin all the way to the finish line. It was, by the end of things, a fairly close match. As has so often happened this season though, the fact that Spurs seemed like they were in it didn’t really matter. Liverpool won for the 20th time in 21 Premier League matches, and for the tenth time by a single goal. This particular one goal victory was a classic tale of two halves, with Liverpool dominating in the opening period and Spurs pushing for, but never quite finding, an equalizer in the second half. As always with matches of this particular flavor the question of what, if anything, tangibly changed between the halves is important. Buried in the change are answers to questions about exactly how enthused Spurs should be about a chase that ultimately proved unfruitful, and whether there is anything at all to cause concern about Liverpool’s curious habit of allowing teams to linger. When it was all said and done, the numbers were fairly even. Liverpool ended with 1.89 expected goals to Spurs, 1.71. Spurs had 14 shots to Liverpool’s 13. This is, of course, colored by the fact that Liverpool had the lead for a substantial portion of the match, and if you’re playing a team even, while winning on the scoreboard, that’s generally going to bring home the points. But, as the race chart shows the pattern of this game was not that it was even throughout. First Liverpool dominated, then Spurs came roaring, or at least barking at a moderate volume, back. So, what changed? It’s often easy to understand when the rhythm of a match shifts, one team’s attacks seem more dangerous, the other’s stop happening altogether. It’s easy to see the end result of those shifts as well. In this case we can see that Spurs started creating more, and Liverpool’s chances dried up. Jurgen Klopp’s men had exactly one chance between the 59th and 90th minute. But what is it that’s actually changing pass to pass, decision to decision that creates those shifts. Let’s dig into those number. A good first place to start is the basic passing maps. Do they show any major differences between the halves for the two teams. Here’s Liverpool’s first half compared to their second. There are some minor differences between the halves for sure. Notably the connection between Virgil van Dijk and Jordan Henderson is severed and buildup play is consequently forced wider on all accounts. But still, the basic shape remains the same, it’s the color that’s changed. In other words the same shape is producing less in terms of xG. That doesn’t tell us much that we didn’t know before. Now, let’s look at the Spurs side. Now this is a little different. In the first half Dele Alli and Harry Winks are both getting the ball off the center backs. In the second half that responsibility seems to become solely Winks’s. In the first half Son is almost exclusively receiving the ball from the midfielders, and getting it much deeper, while in the second half he’s getting it from other forwards and as a consequence seems to be a much more dangerous threat. There’s another way to visualize this as well. In an individual match we can just look at all the passes a team played and see if splitting them up half to half shows us anything. Here we see Liverpool’s passing in the first half (red for complete, yellow for incomplete). Looking at Liverpool’s first half we see more or less what we’d expect from this side. The team is works the ball from side to side, moves it up the flanks and enters the box. And we see basically the same trend in the second half. This is how Liverpool play. This leaves us still looking for answers about why exactly it is that their attack dried up. The team, broadly, tried to do the same things, it just didn’t work as well. Spurs on the other hand, show a remarkably different pattern of play in the first and second half. Here, in the first half we see a team that is just totally unable to get out of their own half. They show a slight preference for launching the ball long and up the left side, presumably trying to get Son in behind, but mostly this is just futility. The second half is simply a different story. Instead of attacking the left, Spurs seem to find joy attacking on the right side. Somewhat paradoxically this brought Son into the game. Rather than receiving the ball wide on the flank in relatively isolated positions, like he did in the first half, he was able to received the ball in areas across the pitch, and deeper in Liverpool territory. It’s also worth noting that during the second half Giovanni Lo Celso came onto the pitch for Christian Ericksen and his presence, largely starting from the right side of midfield also likely made an impact. So that’s one mystery solved. Spurs attacked differently in the second half and it worked better. But that still leaves the Liverpool mystery. What was it exactly that resulted in their attack dropping from eight shots to five shots and 1.34 xG to 0.59? The answer, unsatisfying as it may be, is not a whole heck of a lot. The shot maps look the same, the passing numbers look the same, all of the open play figures you can find look the same. And that’s because for all intents and purposes, from open play Liverpool’s attack was almost exactly the same in the first half as it was in the second half. In the first half the team had six open play shots for 0.70 xG, or an xG per shot of 0.116. In the second half, the team had five open play shots for 0.59 xG, or an xG per shot of 0.118. One shot of difference is not exactly a tale of two halves. The major difference is that in the first half Liverpool created two set pieces shots worth a combined 0.64 xG. There was, of course, the goal which came from a passage of play that started with a throw-in and then then a Van Dijk header. That’s it, that’s the list. The match between Liverpool and Spurs encapsulates the challenges of understanding the ebbs and flows of a football match. Sometimes what seems like a tale of two halves really is. Spurs attack really did change from the first half to the second half, and that in turn changed the match in tangible ways. But, on the other side of the ball, there wasn’t much difference half to half. Liverpool played the same way, had roughly the same amount of success moving the ball, and simply happened to create both of their strong set piece chances in the first half. There wasn’t anything systemic about it. Sometimes the narrative is real, and sometimes it’s a figment of the randomness of the universe. And sometimes it’s both in the same game.   Header image courtesy of the Press Association

The return of the André Villas-Boas constrictor defense at Marseille

Welcome back, André Villas-Boas. We hadn’t been expecting you. Nor should we have. A manager who left the Chinese Super League to focus on rally driving is not an obvious candidate to manage a large club in one of Europe’s big five leagues — even if that club is skint and in France. When Villas-Boas arrived in Marseille last summer, however, he was a vision of grey tailoring and artful stubble, exactly as casual football watchers remember him . It was like no time had passed.  At a time when it’s customary — and correct — to observe “what a decade the last six hours have been,” noting that AVB’s last ten years were quite the decade lacks for rhetorical effect. And yet! This is a manager who crammed being a Europa League-winning ingenue, the Premier League’s flavour of the month, life as a distressed asset working at the margins of football’s geography, retiring to focus on an amusing hobby, and returning to manage a big club into a single decade. Such narrative arcs are rare and tend to belong to football lifers. Only Martin Scorcese’s The Irishman can rival AVB when it comes to packing a lifetime of events into a short-but-also-long runtime.  A peripatetic decades does not appear to have changed AVB. His Marseille, like his Chelsea and Tottenham sides before it, is an exercise in offensive shot volume and high pressing. It’s also pretty successful.  As ever, Villas-Boas’ personal presentation remains more elegant than his tactical approach. His theory of football is straightforward: Both teams take a similar, small number of good shots; his side generates far more speculative chances; his side converts just enough of those lesser shots to prevail. This approach is not always aesthetically pleasing, but it tends to work. Going into Ligue 1’s winter break, Marseille had the fifth-best expected goal difference. All those lower-value chances really do add up.  In this context, Marseille’s high line and aggressive defence is best understood as a way of winning the mediocre shot battle. Sure, among all Ligue 1 clubs, Marseille’s average chance conceded has the second-highest expected goal value, but those chances are few or far between. While opponents periodically break through, they are more likely to come away with nothing. This all works out to an above-average defence. At the same time, turning the ball over higher up the pitch provides Marseille with opportunities to get shots off in transition. On a per-match basis, AVB’s men generate the second-most high press shots and an above-average volume of counter-attacking shots.  Given Marseille’s lack of resources, Villas-Boas is implementing these ideas with an inherited and limited squad. Dimitri Payet, who will soon turn 33, remains responsible for set pieces and getting the ball into the penalty are from open play. Morgan Sanson is good at pressuring opponents and turning the ball over in midfield before dribbling forward and finding a shot. The 25 year old has been a natural fit in this system. Other incumbents have struggled. Jordan Amavi, who had been a cromulent left back for Marseille after two lost years at Aston Villa, has seen his defensive contribution erode this season. (Florian Thauvin was also successfully repatriated after a bad time in England, but the shooting winger’s been injured all season.) At 29, Kevin Strootman is a defensive midfielder who recirculates possession sideways more than he defends. He has been on the pitch for most of this league campaign because Marseille can’t afford to replace him. Slight reinforcements arrived in the summer transfer window. Valentin Rongier, a 25-year-old midfielder signed from Nantes, makes a lot of sense in this system. He pairs a decent amount of progressive passing with elite tackles and, like Sanson, a ton of pressuring. The two of them make for a pair of effective — if not tremendously creative — midfielders in Marseille’s central three. Darío Ismael Benedetto, signed from Boca Juniors on a four-year contract, is a striker who converts chances and does very little else. Signing a striker was necessary insofar as Clinton N’Jie and Mario Balotelli left in the summer, but Benedetto will turn 30 before this season ends.  Isolating Benedetto is somewhat unfair because much of Marseille’s squad is old. Defenders Boubacar Kamara and Duje Caleta-Car and winger Nemanja Radonjic are the only regular contributors under 25. Marseille is counting on a few (thus far) ageless wonders to prop up what is, in effect, a team of adequate players at or nearing the end of their peak years. That’s fine for now, but a long-term risk.  If you’re going to be an old team, it helps to have an ageless wonder as your goalkeeper. Steve Mandanda, who returned to the club following a lost season in the Premier League (are you sensing a pattern or market inefficiency yet?), continues to be an asset at 34. He’s saved nearly five more goals than the average goalkeeper would when facing the same set of shots. He’s also been a decent contributor as Marseille builds out from the back.  A word of caution about supposedly ageless goalkeepers: They get injured and their backups, like the atrocious 37-year-old Yohann Pélé, are proof that Mandanda is an exception and not the norm.  Olympique Marseille won its first game back from France’s winter break, which prompted some outlets to note that they’re just four points back from PSG. Let’s be clear: there is no title race in France. Marseille have been second in the table despite having having the fifth-best expected goal difference. (It helps that rivals Lyon, fourth in expected goal difference before the winter break, are dysfunctional enough to remain in the bottom half.) Still, Marseille has banked some points and is performing like a contender for the Champions League spots. For a large club with limited resources, getting that cash infusion would be a win. Like some of his players, André Villas-Boas is now a little old and something of a reclamation project. Together, they’re writing an interesting new chapter. 

Atalanta's Josip Iličić is having a season nobody but Lionel Messi can touch

At the beginning of this season, I wrote that we should all be grateful to Gian Piero Gasperini for letting us admire Josip Iličić's best season ever. An undoubtedly gifted player who, until last season, had not been able to fully express his immense talent to finally blossomed, albeit at a mature age — not uncommon for attacking players in Serie A.

In the past, Iličić has been hampered by a seemingly endless string of minor injuries. The aches and pains often limited him both in games and in training, so much so that his teammates gave him one of the most hilarious nicknames in European football: “Grandma”. Perhaps his mercurial character hindered his performance and development. After all, the only thing he hates more than fantasy football is warm-up exercises.

Yet, after an infection in his neck lymph nodes forced him to miss two months and meditate on his retirement from football, Atalanta's number 72 came back in September 2018 with renewed enthusiasm and the desire to enjoy playing football while making it enjoyable for everyone’s watching him. 

With Iličić as their most skilled player, Atalanta went on to earn a place at the Coppa Italia final and the first Champions League qualification in their history. Iličić’s influence went far beyond his 12 goals and 7 assists, and in my opinion, he was the bona fide MVP of Serie A in 2018–19.

At 31 years old, his tenth season in Italy seemed to be his career season, the one that would definitively consecrate him in the history of the competition as well as in the hearts of Atalanta fans, who in a recent poll named him the best player in the history of the Dea with almost 80% of the votes. A place he already deserved unquestionably: The Slovenian is one of three players who scored at least one goal and served up at least one assist in each of the last ten Serie A championships, and the league's 9th top goal-scorer of the decade with 79 goals, an enviable haul considering he is not a pure striker.

It seemed unimaginable that the Slovenian fantasy player would raise the level of his game even higher, offering performances unparalleled in Europe. In StatsBomb's database, Iličić's 2018–19 season had a statistical output comparable only to that of Lionel Messi and Neymar, but in the 967 minutes he has played this season he has — incredibly — managed to make another leap forward (Iličić plays a hybrid role between a striker and a trequartista, but I chose the attacking midfielder radial template because I believe it is more explicative)

To put into context what Iličić is doing this season, let’s start with shots. He averages 5.03 shots per 90 minutes, more than anyone else in Serie A this season, Cristiano Ronaldo excluded (the Juventus striker averages 5.44 shots per 90) and a 26% increase in comparison with last season.

It is extremely rare for a player to average so may shots. Over the last couple seasons (2019–20 included), only two players have averaged at least 5 shots per 90. They are, unsurprisingly, Ronaldo and Messi (Harry Kane did so in 2017–18) Apart from sheer volume, what is interesting is that Iličić has increased his shot volume without compromising the overall quality of his attempts — quite the opposite. The Slovenian’s current open play xG per shot average is 0.126, an increase of 31% compared to last season’s 0.096. Don't get me wrong; 0.126 xG per shot is not an extraordinary average, but it represents a significant improvement for a player that was and still is a trigger-happy shooter who attempts 2.8 shots from outside the box every 90 minutes. 

He can still refine his selection, but an average of 0.55 is enough to lead Serie A in xG per 90 among players with at least 900 minutes played. He is one of just 11 players in the top 5 European leagues to reach that value this season. Iličić has already scored nine goals, three goals shy of his career-best last season.

That’s a little more than three more goals than expected, not a huge overperformance, especially given the historical rhythm at which Atalanta’s offense, which is on pace for a 100+ goals season, is performing. The side have scored 48 goals so far, the highest total achieved by any team at this stage of the season since Fiorentina in 1958–59. He has also almost doubled his touches into the box (from 7.00 to 12.57) and therefore his reputation as a goal-scoring threat.

An analysis of Iličić's creativity reveals the stellar results don't change. The former Palermo and Fiorentina player leads the league in xG assisted per 90, too. And widening the perspective to the European level, only 8 other players in the big 5 equal or exceed Iličić’s output of 0.35 xG assisted. Considering he averages “just” 0.28 assist per 90, he has recorded fewer assists than expected so far.

The Slovenian is top of the league in open play key passes, creating at least 0.54 more chances on average than any other player in Serie A (his teammate Papu Goméz is second with 2.25). Thomas Müller is the only player in Europe to average more open play key passes (3.04 per 90) than Iličić. 

His passing happens where it matters, and it does so at an exceptional rate. Iličić leads the league in passes inside the box (and is one of just 8 players in the big 5 averaging at least 1 pass inside the box per 90) and his 2.42 open play passes into the box per 90 are good enough to make the top 15 across European leagues.

Iličić’s stats surely benefit from playing for a crazily good offensive team, but on the other hand, Gasperini’s scoring machine’s performances are also dependent on him. Atalanta average a league-best 1.76 xG per 90, while Iličić’s contribution, measured in terms of xG chain (the xG of possessions a player is involved in starting from open play) is 1.55. This alone accounts for how important the attacker is for his team’s offensive developments.

Successful dribbles are basically the only statistic where “Grandma” Josip didn’t improve in comparison to last season. He has always been a high-risk, high-reward decision-maker, a trait reflected by a success rate of 59%. Still, he completes 3.35 dribbles, which is enough for third-best in the league. 

Combine his high volume of shots with his high volume of dribbles, and you get a very exclusive group. Messi is the only other player to top five shots and three dribbles.  This list summarizes how Iličić is playing by presenting the main per 90 underlying stats and revealing his rank in the 2019–20 season.

  • 1.12 Scoring contribution (1st)
  • 5.03 Shots (2nd)
  • 0.84 Non-penalty Goals (1st)
  • 0.55 Non-penalty xG (1st)
  • 0.28 Assist (14th)
  • 2.79 Open-play key passes (1st)
  • 0.35 xA 1st (1st
  • 1.01 Passes inside the box (1st)
  • 2.42 Passes into the box (5th)
  • 1.09 xG Build up (2nd)
  • 1.55 xG Chain (1st)
  • 8.38 Deep progressions (10th)
  • 54.36 Carries (10th)

Do I need to write that Josip Iličić is currently the best player in Serie A? Well, if that's not enough, here's a nice little bonus. According to his data biography Messi has never finished a season averaging 5 shots, 3 successful dribbles and 2.5 open play key passes. Iličić is currently averaging 5.03 shots, 3.35 successful dribbles and 2.79 open play key passes. Not too shabby.